So, the project-manager consensus is that PMs shouldn't attempt to override domain-specific expert technical decisions. Meanwhile, BurntSynapse claims that he's making valid abstract risk assessments, not overriding physics expertise. Let's review the tape.
Of course I believe physics as a whole is progressing, but I do agree with Penrose, Smolin, and various groups that in critical areas, the progress has been purchased at the cost of good science, especially when "reality" is rejected at quantum scales, because science rests on this assumption.
Experts are well aware of Smolin's anti-string-theory complaints and have resoundingly rejected them on technical grounds. The experts are, similarly aware that quantum reality differs from classical reality, and have a century of experience discussing and testing the distinction.
Progress is used in the project management sense, to refer to delivery of results that measurably meet planned and documented acceptance criteria.
Insofar as that's even applicable to science (which is not very far), remember that the acceptance criteria are to be defined by experts. If the experts say "it's important to figure out whether Type IIB string theory false vacua are enumerable", then that's what the PMs should be looking at. If the experts say "there is nothing we can do about FTL" then the PM shouldn't make that a milestone.
Theoretical research results and development on the Quantum Universe Report's 9 long term mysteries in physics, (including GR paradoxes) that were obtained by creative ad hoc maths, crept outside the philosophical scope of science, and were not planned do not count as progress.
The experts, not the PM, decide what methods to use. The experts have resoundingly agreed on "math that obeys to laws of math" as the appropriate methodology for physics; all progress whatsoever in physics has used math, including math that strikes laypeople as "weird" (Remember when Newton came up with the nonsensical idea of summing an infinite number of infinitesimal intervals?). And here's our erstwhile Project Manager telling the experts to use a different method, one he prefers and understands personally.
These sources I consider reliable:
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn
The Trouble With Physics: The Rise of String Theory, The Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next by Lee Smolin
The Report of the Quantum Universe Committee 2003
The Road to Reality by Stephen Penrose
Not Even Wrong: The Failure of String Theory and the Search for Unity in Physical Law by Peter Woit
Some others' arguments on this topic like Rupert Sheldrake, I reject as supportive because although they agree with the conclusions, their reasoning appears sufficiently unsound as to be unreliable.
And now the Project Manager is telling the experts what sources are "reliable", and to determine the difference between "sound" and "unsound" reasoning---normally the domain of experts. Is this standard project-management practice? Were the project managers on Gravity Probe B responsible for reading, e.g., the electrostatic patch-effect literature and deciding which papers were "reliable"?
So long as four dimensional space-time is a fundamentally accurate description of our universe, that reasoning appears rock solid.
Do we agree the existence of 4D is an assumption? I.e.: That it was inherited from ancient times and passed down within our math and theory, rather than derived from modern physics observations?
Once again, you're removing your project-manager hat and trying to do the work of experts. There's a huge amount of expert work (experimental and theoretical) on the laws of, and dimensionality of, spacetime. We understand better than ever what it means to talk about "4D"---how 4D might be the low-energy limit of a larger number of dimensions, how 4D might a holographic dual of 3D, etc. What's up? Are you doing "risk assessment" on our knowledge of spacetime, without knowing anything about expert's actual work on spacetime? Or are you trying to independently reject that expert work---again, not usually the PM's job---as part of your claim of "no progress"?
I would also agree that the need for revolutionary change of paradigm is not widely acknowledged, but believe the reason for this is not because the need does not exist, but rather because experts in this sub-specialty, of history and philosophy of scientific revolutions are a tiny faction outside traditional science department, (Humanities) and they publish results to other philosophers of science, rather than the physics community.
Can you show me the project-plan for the
philosophers tell scientists what to do subtask? Because that one has a pretty bad record. Scientists had to tell philosophers that the Earth went round the Sun. Scientists had to tell philosophers that moving clocks would disagree with stationary ones. Scientists had to tell philosophers that electrons could undergo wave diffraction; that an electron's diffraction pattern might be altered by the value of a magnetic field in a region the electron never actually went to; that Bell's Inequality would not hold experimentally.
In fact, I can't think of one example of a philosopher-of-science predicting, or directing, or having any foresight at all, of an upcoming paradigm shift.
If I were a project manager, I sure wouldn't declare that
physicists are failing to make progress but that
philosophers and science historians are. Oh, unless you're
not making project-management judgements at all, but rather are making inroads into technical topics.
Perspective seems to be everything on this. If we look from a perspective of mass, observations of dark matter suggest 90% of the material universe is anomalous. Please provide an instance in history when anything like this has ever been true?
It's very frequently been true. Remember when we discovered that the Sun was a million times more massive than the Earth, but had no idea
what mysterious substance it was made of, or what utterly-unguessable energy source kept it hot? Practically screaming out for a paradigm shift, right? If we had simply dropped the "sun is far away and very massive" paradigm, and made a paradigm shift to thinking of the Sun as "small and 400km overhead", we could have dispensed with the silly speculation about ultra-powerful energy source, which are so unmeasurable as to be outside the domain of science.
There's something out there responsible for the dark-matter-related
data. It is a flat experimental fact, in seven or eight independent observables, that all the data (a) disagrees with all simple non-dark-matter models, and (b) agrees with the
simplest dark matter models. (i.e. "hypothesize that a stable neutral particle exists but hasn't been detected yet"---not too much of a stretch.) The project-management fact, the relevant one, is that (a) tens of thousands of people know about these two facts and (b) thousands of different hypotheses are under careful study, ranging from "let's try to detect the particle if it exists and looks like X" to "let's reevaluate the astro data errors" to "let's hypothesize non-GR spacetime laws and forces".
An actual project-manager should be fairly happy with the dark-matter study, because we're quite good at trying to cover all the bases, entertain new ideas, perform quick and adaptable and cross-checkable experiments.
Do you consider my position based on this? I'm merely relaying the top expert studies on the topic for the past 50 years from Thomas Kuhn to The Quantum Universe Committee, and similar, even more recent work.
Do project managers usually "vet" the expert studies, instead of having the experts vet them themselves? Did the Gravity Probe B PM team read all the papers on electrostatic patch effects, then choose the ones they thought important and draw the conclusions?
In project management, it is the lack of progress that we most focus on as a risk indicator because that's our job to address.
In dark matter (to pick one example), in the past 20 years, there's been immense progress. The concordance between Planck data, galaxy data, modern galaxy-formation supercomputer simulations, and the (now numerous) Bullet Cluster analogues, are really new and informative. To me this looks like incredible progress---we're really zooming in on where the dark matter is and how it got there, how it affects baryons, how baryons affect it---but
you have inserted your own ill-informed milestone; you've decided to ignore progress on expert-led milestones, allowing you to declare the project a failure, and prioritize progress on a milestone you're inventing yourself. (What, exactly? "You must either observe a dark-matter/baryon interaction experimentally, or find a new law of spacetime?" I thought that experts, not the PMs, were supposed to name the milestones. And that's an unreasonable milestone, because "dark matter exists but the DM/baryon coupling is very small" is a perfectly plausible hypothesis. Nature did not engineer herself to make all discoveries possible. It's like someone saying, "Black hole research is a failure; we have not created them in the lab, nor launched space probes to visit them.")