Explosion at the Boston Marathon.

[phiwum]

Evaluating the evidence using reason and logic is what a skeptic should be doing. It's not the same as being an Alex Jones conspiracy theorist as you seem to be implying.

Well, yes and no.

I don't think that a skeptic necessarily should be speculating about what happened, as if there's some rational requirement that we each come to our own conclusions, despite the fact that we have limited access to the evidence and that we have the luxury of waiting before forming an opinion.

So, no, it's not that a skeptic should be piecing the story together.

But I don't think it's necessarily bad to try, so long as we remember that we are ignorant of much of the story and any conclusions are very tentative. I have to say that I have spent some time puzzling over the news and trying to figure out what's happened. I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing.

(Mind you, my opinion changes when it turns to public speculation of who-dun-it on the basis of an incomplete set of photos of the scene.)

 

[MattusMaximus]

Oh gee, it appears that I am under attack. I'll just put up the ignore shield until it goes away.

Come up with a "theory" yet?

We're waiting

 

[aleph]

Earlier, people were puzzling over why they would kill a policeman for his gun, since they later were heavily armed without the officer's gun.

Current news suggests that they really had only one gun the whole evening, despite earlier reports. Which makes the 200 or so reported shots at the gunfight, and especially the later shots at the boat, seem rather overzealous on the part of the police -- but I am certainly not criticizing them for their actions in a very stressful and confused situation.


I see your point, however they are supposedly trained to respond exactly to those kind of situations, keeping him alive was of the most importance due to the information that he could provide.

 

[zeggman]

What utter crap.

The evidence is available and it only needs to be gathered and organized. If you are incapable of doing this you will be in no position to question any result that the authorities want to push.

I've been putting evidence together, and waiting.

Said the motive was jihad. Nailed it.

Said the detonator was probably from a radio-controlled car. Nailed it.

I did have some questions about why the M.I.T. guard was shot, and why the carjacking.
I've found the stories the authorities want to push (they wanted another gun, and the car they had was out of gas) to be plausible.

So, six of one, half a dozen of the other.

 

[Magenta]

I did have some questions about why the M.I.T. guard was shot, and why the carjacking.
I've found the stories the authorities want to push (they wanted another gun, and the car they had was out of gas) to be plausible.

I thought the Mercedes was the one that was low on gas?

I assumed they wanted another car because the police would be looking for the Honda that was registered in the name of one of the brothers?

(Still not sure how the Honda ended up in Laurel Street.)

 

[zeggman]

Current news suggests that they really had only one gun the whole evening, despite earlier reports. Which makes the 200 or so reported shots at the gunfight, and especially the later shots at the boat, seem rather overzealous on the part of the police -- but I am certainly not criticizing them for their actions in a very stressful and confused situation.

That's cops these days. It probably would have been more, but they were afraid of looking as bad as the LAPD which fired that many rounds at unarmed pickup truck drivers.

 

[zeggman]

I thought the Mercedes was the one that was low on gas?

I assumed they wanted another car because the police would be looking for the Honda that was registered in the name of one of the brothers?

(Still not sure how the Honda ended up in Laurel Street.)

I'm still uncertain about the details of that bit of the story, but it doesn't make a lot of sense that they were worried the police would be looking for it if they kept driving it.

I thought I heard on the radio today that they hijacked a car because the car they were driving ran out of gas, but I could be mistaken.

When I said a couple of days ago that they apparently shot the guard because they wanted to take his gun, I wasn't speculating, but repeating another news report.

 

[Magenta]

I'm still uncertain about the details of that bit of the story, but it doesn't make a lot of sense that they were worried the police would be looking for it if they kept driving it.

I thought I heard on the radio today that they hijacked a car because the car they were driving ran out of gas, but I could be mistaken.

When I said a couple of days ago that they apparently shot the guard because they wanted to take his gun, I wasn't speculating, but repeating another news report.

Their actions that night do seem a bit ad hoc...

There's a recent and detailed account in the Boston Globe from the carjack victim. Seems the poor guy was held for about 90 minutes. And yes, it was the Mercedes that was nearly out of gas - the victim escaped when they stopped at the gas station. Dzhokhar took cash to pay (do you have to pay first before filling?) and the victim made a dash for it while Tamerlan was distracted.

The story of that night unfolds like a Tarantino movie, bursts of harrowing action laced with dark humor and dialogue absurd for its ordinariness, reminders of just how young the men in the car were. Girls, credit limits for students, the marvels of the Mercedes ML 350 and the iPhone 5, whether anyone still listens to CDs -- all were discussed by the two 26-year-olds and the 19-year-old driving around on a Thursday night.

Carjack victim recounts his harrowing night

 

[zeggman]

From that account, it seems the reason for the carjacking could be that their car was low on gas, or they were afraid it would be recognized, or both.

And the guy's English seems good enough to testify about the confession that they were the Marathon bombers.

 

[Dan O.]

I've been putting evidence together, and waiting.

Said the motive was jihad. Nailed it.

Getting the right answer is not nearly as important as being able to show your work.

Said the detonator was probably from a radio-controlled car. Nailed it.

Have those circuits been positively identified? I've seen several claims but nothing that was an exact match. The battery pack of course was easy.

 

[phiwum]

(Still not sure how the Honda ended up in Laurel Street.)

Yeah, that has me very puzzled.

The brothers were both in the SUV when the carjacking victim escaped, if I understand correctly. When and why did they go get the Honda? Where was it?

 

[phiwum]

Current news suggests that they really had only one gun the whole evening, despite earlier reports. Which makes the 200 or so reported shots at the gunfight, and especially the later shots at the boat, seem rather overzealous on the part of the police -- but I am certainly not criticizing them for their actions in a very stressful and confused situation.

I see your point, however they are supposedly trained to respond exactly to those kind of situations, keeping him alive was of the most importance due to the information that he could provide.

No doubt, you're right, and at least the cop at the boat who fired the first shot seems to have screwed up.

But the officers were working in a very stressful situation, with limited information and a need to act quickly, a situation which is really not part of their regular experience. I simply don't know well what it was like to be in their shows.

And that's why I won't criticize them much for their behavior.

But thank goodness that Djhokhar wasn't killed that evening.

 

[Magenta]

Yeah, that has me very puzzled.

The brothers were both in the SUV when the carjacking victim escaped, if I understand correctly. When and why did they go get the Honda? Where was it?

I don't know why they still had the Honda. After the carjacking, Dzhokhar followed in the Honda as they drove to a side street in "a quiet neighborhood in East Watertown" where they transferred stuff into the Mercedes and left the Honda. All 3 were driving around in the Mercedes until "Danny" escaped at the Shell gas station on Memorial Drive in Cambridge.

The next time they're seen is in or near Laurel Street in Watertown where a lone police officer spotted them in the 2 cars, one following the other. After which, mayhem ensued.

There's a new article in the Boston Globe that gives a more detailed account of what happened in Laurel Street. It was chaotic with a seriously injured colleague to assist, as well as Tamerlan Tsarnaev (who apparently wasn't wearing an explosive device) to deal with.

 

[phiwum]

I don't know why they still had the Honda. After the carjacking, Dzhokhar followed in the Honda as they drove to a side street in "a quiet neighborhood in East Watertown" where they transferred stuff into the Mercedes and left the Honda. All 3 were driving around in the Mercedes until "Danny" escaped at the Shell gas station on Memorial Drive in Cambridge.

The next time they're seen is in or near Laurel Street in Watertown where a lone police officer spotted them in the 2 cars, one following the other. After which, mayhem ensued.

There's a new article in the Boston Globe that gives a more detailed account of what happened in Laurel Street. It was chaotic with a seriously injured colleague to assist, as well as Tamerlan Tsarnaev (who apparently wasn't wearing an explosive device) to deal with.

Pure, pointless speculation follows.

According to this article, they had left the Honda at the bank in Watertown, returning to it once for CDs (!) and maybe other things (but not explosives, which they had already loaded in the SUV).

After the carjacking victim escaped, it's reasonable to think that the SUV is no longer safer than the Honda, so I can see them thinking they wanted to switch vehicles again.

The first time they loaded up the SUV near the bank, a cop had driven by. Maybe they were in two cars because they were looking for a quiet place to transfer the explosives back into the Honda.

Just a guess, but the carjack victim's interview is starting to make the night's activities a bit more coherent. (By the way, the brothers didn't even bother listening to the news on the car radio. They wanted music. This isn't rational behavior!)

 

[Magenta]

Pure, pointless speculation follows.

According to this article, they had left the Honda at the bank in Watertown, returning to it once for CDs (!) and maybe other things (but not explosives, which they had already loaded in the SUV).

I missed the bit where they returned to the Honda. So they went to the ATM:

With Tamerlan driving now, Danny in the passenger seat, and Dzhokhar behind Danny, they stopped in Watertown Center so Dzhokhar could withdraw money from the Bank of America ATM using Danny’s card.

Then they returned to the Honda:

Doubling back, they returned to the Watertown neighborhood -- “Fairfield Street,” Danny saw on the sign this time -- and grabbed a few more things from the parked car, but nothing from the trunk.

Looks like Fairfield Street is only a couple of blocks from Laurel Street.

After the carjacking victim escaped, it's reasonable to think that the SUV is no longer safer than the Honda, so I can see them thinking they wanted to switch vehicles again.

The first time they loaded up the SUV near the bank, a cop had driven by. Maybe they were in two cars because they were looking for a quiet place to transfer the explosives back into the Honda.

No, I think the ATM and the Honda were at 2 separate locations. It's all a bit confusing!

Maybe they were planning to switch vehicles again or maybe they were planning to split up?

Just a guess, but the carjack victim's interview is starting to make the night's activities a bit more coherent. (By the way, the brothers didn't even bother listening to the news on the car radio. They wanted music. This isn't rational behavior!)

There's no real sense of urgency is there? It's as though they're oblivious to the train of events they've set in motion.

 

[phiwum]

Looks like Fairfield Street is only a couple of blocks from Laurel Street.

...

No, I think the ATM and the Honda were at 2 separate locations. It's all a bit confusing!

It is a bit confusing. Fairfield looks like a residential street, so not the site of an ATM. There is (according to Google) a few Bank of America ATMs not too far, the nearest at Bigelow near Nichols.

You're right that I misread -- the car was left in the residential neighborhood, according to the article, and they then went to an ATM in Watertown Center (not Bigelow, I think, but perhaps the one on Main near Arsenal). It was there that the cop car drove by.

Maybe they were planning to switch vehicles again or maybe they were planning to split up?

There's no real sense of urgency is there? It's as though they're oblivious to the train of events they've set in motion.

Beats me what their plans were. Ditching the SUV as soon as possible seems reasonable, and they could have done so right where the Honda already was -- a quiet, residential street. So why they were in separate cars at the gunfight is really hard to guess.

The whole thing looks more bizarre the more we learn. They had only one gun, which means that the cops fired a remarkable number of shots (and the injured officer might have been friendly fire, per a Globe article today). They actually stopped to pick up a CD rather than listen to the radio and hear the news. They have no sense that they should be making distance at all.

 

[Dan O.]

If they didn't know that the cops already knew their names, that could explain the sequence of the carjacking, driving the victim around to load up explosives and then letting the victim escape. They told the victim that they were heading to New York, they loaded up the car for a road trip. After the let the victim escape they can park the SUV where it won't be readily noticed and go back to their classes while the cops chase a phantom across the country.

The news said that the carjacking victim left his cell phone in the SUV and that is how the cops tracked them. Why couldn't they just track the suspects cell phones?

 

[blue sock monkey]

The news said that the carjacking victim left his cell phone in the SUV and that is how the cops tracked them. Why couldn't they just track the suspects cell phones?

AFAIK, the suspects were not ID'd until Tamerlan's fingerprints were obtained following the shoot-out in Watertown. The authorities did not know who the suspects were until that point, and thus could not track their movements using cell phones.

 

[Dan O.]

AFAIK, the suspects were not ID'd until Tamerlan's fingerprints were obtained following the shoot-out in Watertown. The authorities did not know who the suspects were until that point, and thus could not track their movements using cell phones.

Good point.

 

[aleph]

It is difficult to follow how all the events developed, and for the moment I don't remember exactly when the tweets from suspect number 2 were basically revealed to the world but I remember thinking it was a mistake,especially that one about "being a stress kind of guy", in case they were trying to contact another (possible) terrorist cell.

I am glad that was not the case.