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Merged Hugo Chavez Esta Muerto

Elections to replace the Dear Leader were held yesterday, and his hand-picked successor apparently "won", by just over 1,5%.

http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional...e-new-venezuelan-president-with-5066-of-votes

Assumed this will be allowed to stand by the clear paragons of political steadfastness, the Venezuelan CNE and courts, this was a Pyrrhic victory if there ever was one.

Future will be interesting in Venezuela. Dark and terrifying, certainly, but interesting to watch from far away.

McHrozni
 
timhau said:
Maduro won by 1.5%? Wasn't he up by 15% in the pre-election polls?
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He called for a victory by 15%, yes. He was up in polls by about 10%, then 7.2%. Polls in Venezuela are only slightly better than random guessing :)

Now a full recount will take place. As Devil's excrement puts it, Venezuela is the new Florida. An apt name.

McHrozni
 
So Maduro won by a margin of about 200.000 people. And the Opposition, of course, reacts by accusing it of fraud. But I wonder: On the last elections, Radonsky lost to Chavez for a very small margin also, and he recognized his defeat. Why is he now amazed that there was a small margin?

Also, if the exact opposite had happened, and Maduro had won by a HUGE difference, the Opposition would be equally complaining that it was fraud, and that their votes were not fully recognized (This has happened before in the past) So either way, the opposition would complain.

I wouldn't count on the CNE recounting the votes. This is just a way for the Opposition to not admit defeat.
 
Ron_Tomkins said:
So Maduro won by a margin of about 200.000 people. And the Opposition, of course, reacts by accusing it of fraud. But I wonder: On the last elections, Radonsky lost to Chavez for a very small margin also, and he recognized his defeat. Why is he now amazed that there was a small margin?

Also, if the exact opposite had happened, and Maduro had won by a HUGE difference, the Opposition would be equally complaining that it was fraud, and that their votes were not fully recognized (This has happened before in the past) So either way, the opposition would complain.
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Fact: Caprilles readily admitted defeat last October. Any other opposition complaints are irrelevant, this is the latest event, and furthermore includes the same candidates.

I wouldn't count on the CNE recounting the votes. This is just a way for the Opposition to not admit defeat.
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Ih, the Opposition quick count showed a different picture than what openly biased CNE published. The margin of Maduros' victory would also narrow down once the overseas vote comes in. His victory wasn't 1,5%, it was most likely less than 1% even if the results are completely accurate. This could be reversed in a recount.

I'm positive it won't, and any discrepancy between the recount and the official result will be declared fraud by those paragons of credibility - the CNE.

McHrozni
 
In the last election, Chavez won by about 11%, a fairly wide margin- not "very small". At less than 1 point, a challenge is not wildly unreasonable.
 
trustbutverify said:
In the last election, Chavez won by about 11%, a fairly wide margin- not "very small". At less than 1 point, a challenge is not wildly unreasonable.
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It's not 1.5%, it's 1.5% without the foreign vote. That is typically radically pro-opposition. It's not enough to reverse the result, but it can bring another half a percentage point or so for Caprilles, making the margin smaller than 1%.

McHrozni
 
I was responding to Ron's last post claiming the last Chavez victory was very narrow, which it wasn't. Should have quoted him for clarity.
 
timhau said:
According to wikipedia, in the 2012 election the percentage of invalid or blank votes was 1.89, more than Maduro's margin of victory before the foreign vote.
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Indeed. It's obvious that if the election was held according to democratic standards, Caprilles would've won by a landslide. Even now, it's questionable if Maduro even got more votes than Caprilles - the recount may reverse the result, and there is no telling how many votes the government faked. Not millions, certainly, but two hundred thousand out of fourteen million is a realistic possibility.

The 2012 election was a farce and a perversion of democracy. This one went way beyond that, it's akin to elections in typical dictatorships whose aim is solely to provide the regime with a thin (very thin) veneer of legitimacy.

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
Indeed. It's obvious that if the election was held according to democratic standards, Caprilles would've won by a landslide. Even now, it's questionable if Maduro even got more votes than Caprilles - the recount may reverse the result, and there is no telling how many votes the government faked. Not millions, certainly, but two hundred thousand out of fourteen million is a realistic possibility.

The 2012 election was a farce and a perversion of democracy. This one went way beyond that, it's akin to elections in typical dictatorships whose aim is solely to provide the regime with a thin (very thin) veneer of legitimacy.

McHrozni
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and you got evidence for your consiracy theory?
 
Nk8PFdL.png


Now that's what i call fair and balanced public television!
 
trustbutverify said:
I was responding to Ron's last post claiming the last Chavez victory was very narrow, which it wasn't. Should have quoted him for clarity.
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The last victory was in fact, narrow. It wasn't as narrow as this one, but it was about 10 or 11%. That's still pretty close. And in fact, Capriles said that even though he admitted defeat, he wanted the President to keep in mind that almost half of the country is not with him.

The fact that this second election was narrower could be due to a series of elements. The most notable/obvious is the fact that this time it's not Chavez but Maduro. I'm sure there's a good percentage of Chavistas who do not like Maduro, who don't emphasize with him, who don't feel inspired anymore to continue supporting the Revolution without the charismatic rule of Chavez; and thus, didn't vote for Maduro. So just taking that one aspect in consideration, one should indeed expect that the electoral results for the Chavista movement won't be as strong as before.
 
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Ron_Tomkins said:
So Maduro won by a margin of about 200.000 people. And the Opposition, of course, reacts by accusing it of fraud. But I wonder: On the last elections, Radonsky lost to Chavez for a very small margin also, and he recognized his defeat.
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Ron_Tomkins said:
The last victory was in fact, narrow. It wasn't as narrow as this one, but it was about 10 or 11%. That's still pretty close
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The 2012 11% Chavez victory wasn't "very small" or "pretty close". it was slightly smaller than the average Venezuelan presidential election, and about the average for an American presidential election. Your perception might have been affected by the two massive Chavez landslides in 2000 and 2006. The last 10 elections in Venezuela (not including this one) had an average margin of about 13.5%.

It's entirely reasonable for the opposition not to challenge a comfortable double-digit loss, and entirely reasonable for them to challenge a microscopic sub-1% outcome.
 
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He's counting the votes and could only manage a 1.5% win???

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahaha!!
 
Ron_Tomkins said:
The last victory was in fact, narrow. It wasn't as narrow as this one, but it was about 10 or 11%. That's still pretty close. And in fact, Capriles said that even though he admitted defeat, he wanted the President to keep in mind that almost half of the country is not with him.

The fact that this second election was narrower could be due to a series of elements. The most notable/obvious is the fact that this time it's not Chavez but Maduro. I'm sure there's a good percentage of Chavistas who do not like Maduro, who don't emphasize with him, who don't feel inspired anymore to continue supporting the Revolution without the charismatic rule of Chavez; and thus, didn't vote for Maduro. So just taking that one aspect in consideration, one should indeed expect that the electoral results for the Chavista movement won't be as strong as before.
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The results show that approximately 700,000 people who voted for Chavez last October voted for Caprilles this time around. The participation was only slightly lower and the total number of votes was thus quite similar, so this was the net result.
This is quite significant, if you include that Maduro campaigned since at least December (and vilifying the opposition for hinting campaign) and ran as an incumbent.

McHrozni
 
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