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How can peace in Syria be achieved?

Thanks.

What Putin might or might not do ... well, that's some fun ground to try and cover. ;)

It looks like Putin has been making some pretty major steps towards breaking with Assad. Beyond the talks with the US, his talks in Turkey, and his comments there may be an even bigger sign that he is seriously looking at breaking with the dictator.

I am still of the opinion that a responsible transition of power in Syria is the best way to address the chemical weapons and extremism in Syria.

Russia, Turkey discuss new ideas on Syria

ASHGABAT, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Russian and Turkish diplomats will soon start working on new ideas for ending the conflict in Syria which emerged in talks between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.

Putin and Erdogan agreed to differ on Syria at Monday's talks in Istanbul but Russia has distanced itself from President Bashar al-Assad and tried to position itself for his potential exit from power.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed diplomats would discuss what Putin said were "some new, fresh ideas" but gave no details...

"Russians are now looking beyond Assad," said Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank.

"I don't think they will change their position on the basic issues such as 'regime change' or outside intervention but I think they will be looking at the day after, what happens when the government falls," he said.
 
As Syria's rebels close in, Assad has three options

The most likely is a retreat into the mountains controlled by his minority Alawite community.


The magnificent views across Damascus from the presidential palace on Mount Qassioun are unlikely to provide much comfort these days for Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s beleaguered head of state.

For several weeks, the skyline to the north, east, and south has been stained by black columns of smoke from artillery explosions and air strikes as Syrian government forces struggle to prevent the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels from inching ever closer to their goal of unseating Mr. Assad’s regime.

After 20 months of confrontation, Assad’s hold on power is looking increasingly frail, leaving him and his regime with few remaining options.

“There is no doubt that the regime’s capacity is declining and that the FSA continues to become ever stronger and better armed,” says a European diplomat closely following developments in Syria.

The current status of the regime is uncertain and it is not even clear if Assad is still in charge. The diplomat says that Assad appears to have become a “prisoner of his own system,” no longer playing an active leadership role and confined to his palace. Instead, there are indications that an informal "security council” has emerged consisting of between 50 to 100 top regime and military figures drawn from the minority Alawite community which is handling the daily confrontation against the armed opposition.

Assad has always had a tenuous grip on power from the very beginning, but it looks though as more and more of the regime collapses around him, that the Alawite power structure that has always been in real control is taking more of a role in the inevitable transition.

One possibility is that the recently loaded chemical weapons may be used as a protection for a new Alawite State.

The first – although least likely – option is to remain in the presidential palace to the bitter – and probably bloody – end, fulfilling a promise he made last month in an interview with Russian television to “live and die in Syria”.

A second possibility is to escape Damascus with his family and seek asylum in a third country, perhaps Iran or Venezuela, the governments of which openly support the Syrian regime. Faisal Miqdad, Syria’s deputy foreign minister, was reported to have visited Venezuela, Cuba, and Ecuador recently. Ecuador subsequently announced that it was not entertaining the idea of granting asylum to Assad.

The most likely option, however, and one that appears already to be under way, is for the regime and the core of the army and security forces to retreat to the Alawite-populated mountains on the Mediterranean coast. Diplomatic sources say that there are unconfirmed reports that the regime is planning to register all Sunnis who live in the coastal cities of Tartous, Banias, and Latakia which could potentially form part of an Alawite-dominated enclave. The coastal cities are predominantly Sunni-populated while the mountain hinterland is mainly Alawite.
 
There does seem to be a lot of moves towards developing a new independent Alawite State. From the same Christian Science Monitor article:

Exodus to the mountains

Furthermore, there appears to be a steady and discreet trickle of families of pro-regime Alawite army officers leaving the upmarket Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus for the coastal mountains.

“More and more regime supporters and, or their families are moving up the coast, and there are persistent rumors that at least part of the government now sits in Tartous,” the European diplomat says. “All indications are that the regime's fallback position is to retreat to the coastal area of ​​Tartous and Latakia.”

Significantly, units of the rebel Free Syrian Army operating north of Damascus appear to be limiting ambushes to south-bound military traffic heading to the capital along the main highway, the sources say. Vehicles heading north are left unmolested, raising the possibility that the highway, which leads to Tartous, is being offered as an escape route for the regime to prevent a protracted and bloody last stand in Damascus.
 
A good step by step analysis of how Syria cut of the internet can be found in the following article

Updated: Paint it black—How Syria methodically erased itself from the 'Net

Just after noon Damascus time on Thursday, the government-owned Syrian Telecommunications Establishment essentially deleted the whole country from the Internet's routing tables, blocking all inbound and outbound network traffic. Rather than the result of terrorist attacks, as the government claimed on state television, the blackout was a well-rehearsed and deliberate act intended to deny connection to Syria's citizens and the opposition forces currently trying to topple the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad.
 
A good step by step analysis of how Syria cut of the internet can be found in the following article

Updated: Paint it black—How Syria methodically erased itself from the 'Net

Just after noon Damascus time on Thursday, the government-owned Syrian Telecommunications Establishment essentially deleted the whole country from the Internet's routing tables, blocking all inbound and outbound network traffic. Rather than the result of terrorist attacks, as the government claimed on state television, the blackout was a well-rehearsed and deliberate act intended to deny connection to Syria's citizens and the opposition forces currently trying to topple the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad.
 
I confess to you, there are days when wish I could do that.

Yeah, but a lot of what they did when they shut down the net was to move around their chemical weapons.

It was also during the time when there were videos and witness accounts of them using white phosphorous and other chemical weapons.


They have now pretty much used all their different types of weapons against their own people.
 
Will Assad agree to a plan to end the bloodshed, or will he continue to kill as many Syrian men, women, and children as he can in order to contiue to terrorize his way to power?



Brahimi may have the best serious peace plan yet:

UN envoy to Syria brings plan to end crisis

UN and Arab League envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, will meet on Monday with Syrian President Bashar Assad. The French newspaper Le Figaro reported that Brahimi will bring to his meeting with Assad, a joint US-Russian plan to end the crisis in Syria.

According to the plan, a transit government will be created which will include ministers from the ruling and opposition parties.
According to the newspaper, Assad will remain in power until 2014, which is also the year his term will end, but he will remain with no authority.
 
Uh, that sounds a bit like a failure waiting to happen.

Assad will remain in power until 2014, which is also the year his term will end, but he will remain with no authority.
Say What? :boggled:

Sounds half baked, I suspect the media folks reduced this one down to silly in their reporting.
 
Uh, that sounds a bit like a failure waiting to happen.


Say What? :boggled:

Sounds half baked, I suspect the media folks reduced this one down to silly in their reporting.

And you were right.

There will have to be some trial and resolution for the war crimes that Assad has committed.

Having him stay on to appease the Russians will not bring the Syrians any closer to peace.
 
What you just said means: there will be no deal.

Recent news, northern air base fell to rebels, apparently an area of Damascus or near it has been taken/retaken by the government forces.

Russians off the coast of Syria. What's their play?
 
That's one of the air bases he rejoiced in having fallen to the "rebels" before he went hover-boarding again.

Empress, on another forum where I drop in now and again, the discussion of the loss of that air base centered around what that did to Assad's helicopter inventory, his ability to support his efforts from the air, and what the rebels might harvest/loot from the base.

Why does it matter what Hover Boarder said or did? The issue is: what does this do for the anti government forces, and what does this do for, or against, the government forces?
 
Well, this is the best thread for it. How can peace in Syria be achieved? Maybe the rebels can blow off some steam and "make love, not war." Two years this has gone on, and some of the Mujaheddin will be getting lonely. They could start raping people. So a Saudi cleric reportedly pronounces the brilliant solution - rebel fighters can marry Syrian women. Seriously, he checked with everyone who matters, and no matter what some people might say loudly as you try, it's okay. No kiddie stuff - he draws the line at a conservative 14 years old. If the family's not all for it, or she's not, the men are authorized to inform them that the service will get the girl into heaven, which is apparently a rare treat.

Hey little sister, shotgun. Hey little sister, shotgun, oh yeah. Hey little sister shotgun, it's ... not a nice day.

Not just younger girls but also married women are also off limits - family values must be upheld. But maidens of age, divorcees, and widows are all fair game. The last is convenient, given that Pro-Gov't Syrian Civilians Are Legitimate Targets, says another gulf cleric. That's nothing new, it's just good to have a reminder, which has now been offered.
 
What you just said means: there will be no deal.

No, there will be no deal for now. The rebels want Assad to stand trial for his war crimes, while his supporters want him to be worshiped as the one true god.

It's not all about Assad personally though, it is what his rule represents. For decades the various Assad dictatorships have relied on sect based ethnic cleansing whenever there is any question to their iron fist rule. The institutions of torture and killing that they have set up is not something that those who support the Free Syrian side would allow or support. And on the other side, those who have not been the primary targets and victims of the Assad torture/killing factories fear what will happen to them if they were removed.

Even with coming up with a plan that allowed Assad to remain, he was declared 'biased' against the regime. And he has been accused of glosing over or ignoring the war crimes of the regime by the rebels.


Understandably, Brahimi's last plan had a lot of immediate problems with it. The regime is going to continue their current path of holding on as long as they can until they kill as many people as possible before they go down. Assad has repeatedly said that he would rather die than stop the bloodshed, so there was little that Brahimi could do working with that.

Now it seems that Brahimi's role is more about looking towards a post Assad Free Syria:

Brahimi’s final acts

Yet whereas Annan's goal was to get Moscow to sign onto his transition plan, Brahimi's intentions have been more opaque. The likeliest explanation is that he hopes to create the framework for more serious talks between Moscow and Washington if, and when, Assad falls, making Russia rethink its stance at last.

Last month, it seemed possible that this moment was at hand, with confused reports that Russia was starting to turn against Assad. Brahimi appeared to shift gear to a public peace drive, with high-profile visits to Damascus -- reiterating proposals for transitional talks under "strong observation" by a new U.N. peacekeeping force -- and Moscow. This backfired. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used a press conference with Brahimi to affirm that Russia would not help force Assad out. Assad's bellicose public address on January 6, ruling out serious discussions of a transition and offering grotesquely unrealistic proposals for peace on the regime's terms, effectively killed off the envoy's efforts.

So while Brahimi started his tenure in a very different style to his predecessor, he has ended up in a version of the trap that Annan fell into: making a public push for a specific peace plan and seeing it die.

This has at least given Brahimi license to speak his mind, and he has indicated that he sees no political future for Assad. After this grueling episode, the envoy has every reason to stand down. But there are still ways in which he can do Syria some service. The first is to consolidate his channel between the United States and Russia. When Assad's final defeat does come, Moscow and Washington will need to coordinate their public and operational responses on everything from humanitarian aid to chemical weapons. They don't necessarily need Brahimi to do that, but he may be able to help them navigate the looming chaos.

In parallel, Brahimi and his team should make sure they have contingency plans for working with regional powers in the immediate aftermath of Assad's fall. Syria's fate is likely to be shaped by how effectively Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other backers of the rebels can control their friends in this period. If they can persuade them to show restraint, there may be a chance to negotiate a post-Assad settlement. If they fail to manage this, the country may become another Somalia, as Brahimi has repeatedly warned.



Recent news, northern air base fell to rebels, apparently an area of Damascus or near it has been taken/retaken by the government forces.

The Taftanaz airbase in Idlib is another major loss for the regime. The regime lost a lot of its ability to carry out air attacks on the Northern Free Syrian towns because of their loss of helicopter and other air power lost at the base. It is pretty far North from Damascus though.


The airbase near Damascus is the Muleiha airbase. It is where news reports have been talking about the large numbers of civilian casualties from the regime bombing of suburbs in responses to attacks on the airbase. It is the last major base East of Damascus that the regime has left, and while it will still take some time before it too falls, it has taken some major losses in equipment from the attacks.



Russians off the coast of Syria. What's their play?

The Russians are waiting off the coast of Syria for two main reasons

1) As a deterrent for Western intervention, and to have a closer eye on their assets in the country.

2) They are also standing ready to evacuate Russian civilians and military advisors once Assad falls.

The Russians primary complaint about the Libya mission was that they were cut out of many of the new energy contracts once Gaddafi fell.

The Russians primary concern in Syria is to make sure that their current contracts, investments, and loans are protected.


As RT notes, Gaddafi demise leads to questions over [Russian oil] contracts

As well as the production operations on the Libyan mainland, in which Gazprom holds a 49 percent stake, crude oil production was resumed a few weeks ago on the Al Jurf offshore platform in the Mediterranean.

There has been an increase in Russian-Libyan economic ties since 2008, with Russia writing off Libya's national debt of $4.5 billion dating from the Soviet Union era.

Russian Railways signed a contract for 2.2 billion euros to build a 550 km long railway line connecting Sirt and Benghazi, with 2010 seeing Rosoboronexport sign a $1.3 billion contract on supply of arms and weapons to Libya.

In 2007 Gazprom signed a memorandum of cooperation with the National Oil Corporation of Libya, providing access to Mediterranean oil shelf. Since that time "Tatneft", "Monolitspetsstroy", "Stroytransgaz", "Lukoil", "Technopromexport" and "Tatneftegeophysica." opened branches in Libya.

Experts still doubt that Russia can count on same contract conditions in Libya signed during Gaddafi regime.

Russia is extremely determined to make sure that their investments are protected. The issues of the humanitarian, and the number of people who were unnecessarily killed never were a major issue for Russia in either conflict.


Syria's Pipelineistan war

Deep beneath "Damascus volcano" and "the battle of Aleppo", the tectonic plates of the global energy chessboard keep on rumbling. Beyond the tragedy and grief of civil war, Syria is also a Pipelineistan power play.

More than a year ago, a $10 billion Pipelineistan deal was clinched between Iran, Iraq and Syria for a natural gas pipeline to be built by 2016 from Iran's giant South Pars field, traversing Iraq and Syria, with a possible extension to Lebanon. Key export target market: Europe.

During the past 12 months, with Syria plunged into civil war, there was no pipeline talk. Up until now. The European Union's supreme paranoia is to become a hostage of Russia's Gazprom. The Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline would be essential to diversify Europe's energy supplies away from Russia.
 
It matters not because of him but because of what he parrots, which turns out again and again to be baseless (pun intended) bravado.

As the regime continues to lose control of airbases, military bases, towns, they lose tanks, ammunition, helicopters, jets, artillery, anti-air assets, trucks, soldiers, as well as cities and towns to the Free Syrian army, it diminishes their ability to attack the towns, cities, and soldiers who have joined the rebellion.

As more and more soldiers, generals, intelligence chiefs, and politicians defect from the regime, it reduces the time that the Assad regime has left.
 
Well, this is the best thread for it. How can peace in Syria be achieved? Maybe the rebels can blow off some steam and "make love, not war." Two years this has gone on, and some of the Mujaheddin will be getting lonely. They could start raping people. So a Saudi cleric reportedly pronounces the brilliant solution - rebel fighters can marry Syrian women. Seriously, he checked with everyone who matters, and no matter what some people might say loudly as you try, it's okay. No kiddie stuff - he draws the line at a conservative 14 years old. If the family's not all for it, or she's not, the men are authorized to inform them that the service will get the girl into heaven, which is apparently a rare treat.

Hey little sister, shotgun. Hey little sister, shotgun, oh yeah. Hey little sister shotgun, it's ... not a nice day.

Not just younger girls but also married women are also off limits - family values must be upheld. But maidens of age, divorcees, and widows are all fair game. The last is convenient, given that Pro-Gov't Syrian Civilians Are Legitimate Targets, says another gulf cleric. That's nothing new, it's just good to have a reminder, which has now been offered.

The rebellion tried many times to advocate for change through peaceful demonstrations, and every time Assad responded with bullets, mass detentions, torture, and executions. Both for the people involved with the demonstrations, as well as people whose killing was determined by the regime as a viable strategy for deterring future protests.

The campaign of terror and destruction that Assad unleashed backfired, and the Free Syrian army is the result. If Assad was a more capable, competent, and less bloodthirsty tyrant, than there never would have been a civil war in the first place.
 

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