2012 Electoral College Predictions

[EventHorizon]

What is the relation between support for a candidate and a prediction in his favor? Here's what I've got, my apologies if I've mistaken your preference:

On Romney's side, it looks like 4 definite supporters - not sure about Meadmaker, Dumb All Over, or MaGZ.

On Obama's side it is 9 supporters, 1 opponent (StankApe), and 3 I don't know about: Yalius, Jhunter1163, and Event Horizon.

I think Tsukasa Buddha is rooting for an Obama victory.

I've seen polls showing that even though support for the candidates is fairly even, a sizeable majority believe Obama will pull through.

I'm basically a slightly left leaning moderate. Which means I'm pro-choice as long as you do it with a gun.

I voted Johnson this year though if I had to choose between Obama and Romney I'd probably go with Obama.

 

[RandFan]

 

[Cain]

http://rove.com/election

Rove has it for Romney 285 - 253, but his map underscores the difficulty of a Romney victory. He assumes Romney gets New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama takes Ohio, he gets to 271. Alternatively, if he takes Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire, he'd win. So I'm gonna go with the "conventional wisdom" that Obama has more routes to victory.

Obama - 281
Romney - 257

I'd be (slightly) more surprised if Romney wins than if Obama gets ~300.

 

[RandFan]

Posted before but if anyone missed it. Great interactive graphic:

512 Paths to the White House

 

[EventHorizon]

512 Paths to the White House

That is really cool.

 

[Madalch]

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1849/pollsclosemap.gif

6 pm eastern....that's an hour from now, right?

Yeah, I'm too lazy to google time zones...

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Either 290 or 303 Obama.

 

[RandFan]

Yeah, I'm too lazy to google time zones...

's ok. I aim to please.

 

[Baylor]

So, we have:

Electoral College-------Obama----------Romney
Puppycow------------------332--------------206
LarianLeQuella--------------320--------------218
UNLoVedRebel--------------303--------------235
MattusMaximus-------------300--------------238
Yalius----------------------300--------------238
NotJesus-------------------294--------------244
Jhunter1163----------------291--------------247
Peephole-------------------290--------------248
remirol---------------------288--------------250
EventHorizon---------------281--------------257
StankApe ------------------276--------------262
BenBurch-------------------273--------------265
Tsukasa Buddha------------269--------------269
MaGZ----------------------254--------------284
mikedenk-------------------254--------------284
Meadmaker-----------------251--------------287
Cylinder--------------------236--------------302
AlBell----------------------218 --------------320
Dumb All Over--------------218--------------320
Brainster-------------------212--------------326

THanks for putting this together.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Ok, I go with 290 Obama.

 

[NotJesus]

Polls are closing, so the final list of entries is:

Electoral College-------Obama----------Romney
Puppycow------------------332--------------206
LarianLeQuella--------------320--------------218
UNLoVedRebel--------------303--------------235
not so new-----------------303--------------235
MattusMaximus-------------300--------------238
Yalius----------------------300--------------238
NotJesus-------------------294--------------244
Jhunter1163----------------291--------------247
Loss Leader----------------290--------------248
Peephole-------------------290--------------248
Undesired Walrus-----------290--------------248
remirol---------------------288--------------250
Cain-----------------------281--------------257
EventHorizon---------------281--------------257
JoeB-----------------------271--------------267
StankApe ------------------276--------------262
BenBurch-------------------273--------------265
Tsukasa Buddha------------269--------------269
MaGZ----------------------254--------------284
mikedenk-------------------254--------------284
Meadmaker-----------------251--------------287
Cylinder--------------------236--------------302
AlBell----------------------218 --------------320
Dumb All Over--------------218--------------320
Brainster-------------------212--------------326


NOTE: JoeB, your total added up to 540, so I corrected it.

 

[Bill Thompson]

I may or may not be running a program right now at my computer to control as many electronic voting machines as I want.

Just compare the exit polls to the actual votes.

 

[NotJesus]

I may or may not be running a program right now at my computer to control as many electronic voting machines as I want.

Just compare the exit polls to the actual votes.

Wrong thread.

 

[GeeMack]

When the dust settles, we get President Romney, and Vice President Biden.

Interesting. I was sort of hoping for Palin and Bachmann. Maybe next time.

 

[casebro]

Didn't they decide an election or two ago not to publicize data until the polls are closed across the country?

 

[casebro]

Colorado is the last 'toss up' state to close. I guess that is the time to extrapolate a winner?

 

[RandFan]

Colorado is the last 'toss up' state to close. I guess that is the time to extrapolate a winner?

Highly unlikely. Could be but unlikely.

512 Paths to the White House

 

[mikedenk]

Didn't they decide an election or two ago not to publicize data until the polls are closed across the country?

Generally, yes. It was after the 2000 election, in which the media attempted to throw the election to Gore by calling Florida early.

 

[JoeB]

NOTE: JoeB, your total added up to 540, so I corrected it.

I'm too sober for this apparently.

Thanks.

 

[NotJesus]

I'm definitely too sober. I'm still at work.

Not working though.