2012 Electoral College Predictions

[Meadmaker]

Should I predict with my head, or my heart?

I will give up on both organs, and go with my gut.

Romney 287
Obama 251

This is based on no surprises in "safe" states, and Romney wins all swing states except New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

If you like cool, improbable, but not outlandish outcomes, you take the above and move Ohio to the Obama column, and you get 269 votes for each candidate, (assuming also that Maine gives up one red district, and Nebraska one blue district). When the dust settles, we get President Romney, and Vice President Biden.


I just have a "feel" that Romney will get a better turnout, and will swing the point or so that he needs to get the presidency. It's a case where I really hope not to be able to say, "I told you so".

ETA: While predicting with my "gut", I would say it's feeling queasy. Nevertheless, Romney supporters just seem to have more excitement right now.

 

[thaiboxerken]

I'm not as excited as you, Meadmaker, that it looks close. If Mitt is elected, we'll be back to Bush-type policies on steroids. More war, more spending without payment and the economy will start another downward spiral. I don't say this because I know what Mitt's policies are, but because I'm sure Mitt will just sign into law anything that the GOP-Teaparty tells him to.

 

[Meadmaker]

I'm not as excited as you, Meadmaker, that it looks close. If Mitt is elected, we'll be back to Bush-type policies on steroids. More war, more spending without payment and the economy will start another downward spiral. I don't say this because I know what Mitt's policies are, but because I'm sure Mitt will just sign into law anything that the GOP-Teaparty tells him to.

I think the influence of the president on the economy is highly exaggerated. It's the most important electoral issue, but I just don't think it matters nearly as much as people seem to think.

The thought of a Romney presidency, especially with a GOP congress, frightens me, but I lived through many presidents, and haters of those presidents on both sides of the aisle were certain that President X would destroy the country, but it didn't happen. Well.....Bush came close.

 

[thaiboxerken]

I'm not worried about my own situation. I work for one of the large multi-national companies in the world. I'm worried about those that don't have as well of a situation as I do. For those people, Mitt being elected will be detrimental.
I don't think the country will be destroyed. It will be, even more, sold out to large corporations and the wealthy. Again, it won't affect me too much, but I think is wrong.

 

[EventHorizon]

Finally filled out my bracket map. I've got Obama winning 281-257.

 

[NotJesus]

So, we have:

Electoral College-------Obama----------Romney
Puppycow------------------332--------------206
LarianLeQuella--------------320--------------218
UNLoVedRebel--------------303--------------235
MattusMaximus-------------300--------------238
Yalius----------------------300--------------238
NotJesus-------------------294--------------244
Jhunter1163----------------291--------------247
Peephole-------------------290--------------248
remirol---------------------288--------------250
EventHorizon---------------281--------------257
StankApe ------------------276--------------262
BenBurch-------------------273--------------265
Tsukasa Buddha------------269--------------269
MaGZ----------------------254--------------284
mikedenk-------------------254--------------284
Meadmaker-----------------251--------------287
Cylinder--------------------236--------------302
AlBell----------------------218 --------------320
Dumb All Over--------------218--------------320
Brainster-------------------212--------------326

 

[EventHorizon]

Very bold pick by Tsukasa there. A tie. I like it. As an NHL fan I miss those.


Filling out the map made me realize how tough it's going to be for Romney to win. I basically started with 2008's map and flipped what seemed like a whole lot of states to Red including Ohio and Florida and it still wasn't enough. I think the safe money is on Obama but I didn't put money on it this year.

 

[mikedenk]

Double-post

 

[mikedenk]

Nice sum-up.

Looks like a fairly wide range of predictions.

 

[MattusMaximus]

So what does the winner get?

 

[ZirconBlue]

So what does the winner get?

A year's supply of Turtle Wax and Rice-a-Roni, the San Francisco Treat

 

[not_so_new]

I guess I will throw my hat into the ring.


Obama 303
Romney 235

Like someone else said, if I go with my hart I think it might be higher in Obama's favor, if I go with my head I think Obama is probably going to end up in the high 290's so I split the difference.

 

[EventHorizon]

Like someone else said, if I go with my hart

He's not running this year. Some sort of scandal if I remember right.

 

[NotJesus]

Doh! I knew someone would do that!


Electoral College-------Obama----------Romney
Puppycow------------------332--------------206
LarianLeQuella--------------320--------------218
UNLoVedRebel--------------303--------------235
not so new-----------------303--------------235
MattusMaximus-------------300--------------238
Yalius----------------------300--------------238
NotJesus-------------------294--------------244
Jhunter1163----------------291--------------247
Peephole-------------------290--------------248
remirol---------------------288--------------250
EventHorizon---------------281--------------257
StankApe ------------------276--------------262
BenBurch-------------------273--------------265
Tsukasa Buddha------------269--------------269
MaGZ----------------------254--------------284
mikedenk-------------------254--------------284
Meadmaker-----------------251--------------287
Cylinder--------------------236--------------302
AlBell----------------------218 --------------320
Dumb All Over--------------218--------------320
Brainster-------------------212--------------326

 

[mikedenk]

So what does the winner get?

The delicious tears of the other side should be reward enough.

 

[not_so_new]

Doh! I knew someone would do that!


Electoral College-------Obama----------Romney
Puppycow------------------332--------------206
LarianLeQuella--------------320--------------218
UNLoVedRebel--------------303--------------235
not so new-----------------303--------------235
MattusMaximus-------------300--------------238
Yalius----------------------300--------------238
NotJesus-------------------294--------------244
Jhunter1163----------------291--------------247
Peephole-------------------290--------------248
remirol---------------------288--------------250
EventHorizon---------------281--------------257
StankApe ------------------276--------------262
BenBurch-------------------273--------------265
Tsukasa Buddha------------269--------------269
MaGZ----------------------254--------------284
mikedenk-------------------254--------------284
Meadmaker-----------------251--------------287
Cylinder--------------------236--------------302
AlBell----------------------218 --------------320
Dumb All Over--------------218--------------320
Brainster-------------------212--------------326

Ohhh... sorry, my bad....



I should have posted earlier.

 

[not_so_new]

He's not running this year. Some sort of scandal if I remember right.

LOL

I don't know what it is by I ALWAYS type "hart" when I mean "heart".... muscle memory and bad editing skills I guess.

 

[mikedenk]

Doh! I knew someone would do that!


Electoral College-------Obama----------Romney
Puppycow------------------332--------------206
LarianLeQuella--------------320--------------218
UNLoVedRebel--------------303--------------235
not so new-----------------303--------------235
MattusMaximus-------------300--------------238
Yalius----------------------300--------------238
NotJesus-------------------294--------------244
Jhunter1163----------------291--------------247
Peephole-------------------290--------------248
remirol---------------------288--------------250
EventHorizon---------------281--------------257
StankApe ------------------276--------------262
BenBurch-------------------273--------------265
Tsukasa Buddha------------269--------------269
MaGZ----------------------254--------------284
mikedenk-------------------254--------------284
Meadmaker-----------------251--------------287
Cylinder--------------------236--------------302
AlBell----------------------218 --------------320
Dumb All Over--------------218--------------320
Brainster-------------------212--------------326

What is the relation between support for a candidate and a prediction in his favor? Here's what I've got, my apologies if I've mistaken your preference:

On Romney's side, it looks like 4 definite supporters - not sure about Meadmaker, Dumb All Over, or MaGZ.

On Obama's side it is 9 supporters, 1 opponent (StankApe), and 3 I don't know about: Yalius, Jhunter1163, and Event Horizon.

I think Tsukasa Buddha is rooting for an Obama victory.

I've seen polls showing that even though support for the candidates is fairly even, a sizeable majority believe Obama will pull through.

 

[Loss Leader]

I'm going in with Obama 290, Romney 248.


Obama loses Florida and Virginia.

If Virginia goes to Obama when it closes at 7:00 p.m. eastern, he wins reelection.

 

[JoeB]

Very conservative prediction. Romney wins everything that Nate Silver has less than 85% chance Obama.

Obama 273
Romney 267