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How can peace in Syria be achieved?

One of the other main ways of achieving peace in Syria is if enough Alawites decide that they don't want to go down on the ship with Assad, and/or decide that they don't want to support the killing of so many of their fellow Syrian countrymen.

A number of high profile breaks with the Assad regime among the Alawite community have been showing just that:

A Defection Hints At Cracks Among Syria's Alawites

In a new YouTube video, a Syrian colonel defects from the army, denounces President Bashar Assad and publicly joins the rebels of the Free Syrian Army.

Videos are a staple of Syria's 19-month revolt, and defections by officers have been increasing. But this one is highly unusual because the colonel, Zubayda Almiqi, says she is a member of Assad's Alawite sect.

...

Assad's staying power, in part, rests on the solid backing of the 1.3 million Alawites in the face of an uprising dominated by Sunni Muslims, Syria's majority population.

Alawite unity had appeared to be growing even stronger out of fear that if Assad falls, Alawites will suffer terrible reprisals. But in recent weeks, cracks are beginning to show.

"We are proud to have this dignified woman decide to defect," said Habib Saleh, an Alawite dissident and veteran activist who spent more than a decade in prison.

In her YouTube statement, Almiqi announced that she will join the rebels.

"They have accepted her," said Saleh, referring to a Facebook statement by rebel commanders. "She will offer her experience."

Signs Of Growing Splits

Saleh, a member of the Syrian National Council, a political opposition group, says there are historic splits within the Alawite community that have grown more acute as the rebels have taken the fight closer to the Alawite heartland, which is in and around Latakia, on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

"So many causalities took place," he says, that anxiety and fear mount with each new coffin returned for burial.

"I have daily phone calls with people in the villages, and I know the families," he says. Now, he adds, public criticism of the Assad regime often appears on Facebook pages, scrawled as graffiti or on handwritten signs.
 
Brahimi has asked Iran to help convince Assad to agree to a ceasefire, but I would be very surprised if they changed course and seriously worked on ending the conflict.

Even so, political reconciliation and talks are a good idea. All that it would take is for reasonable people on both sides to talk for a solution to come about.

If Brahimi could bring that about, the whole world would be better off for it.


Syrian crisis: Iran asked to help secure ceasefire

Lakhdar Brahimi, the envoy for the UN and Arab League, used a weekend visit to Iran, a loyal ally of Damascus, to appeal for help in securing a ceasefire to mark Eid al-Adha, the four-day Muslim holiday later this month. In Baghdad on Monday he called on the Iraqi government to use its influence, while Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, called for a speedy "political solution".

Brahimi said a ceasefire would "help create an environment that would allow a political process to develop", said his spokesman, Ahmad Fawzi.
 
[*]As for Israel, if they were following their own best interests, they would do all that they could to keep the Assad regime in power. Despite his rhetoric, he is unlikely to directly attack Israel ever, and that threat would be much more dire if Syria destabilizes to the point that extremists could get their hands on Syria's biological and chemical weapons. So, since they would lose either way, Israel has been very quiet on the whole issue. And even though they would win more by supporting a mass murdering dictator, they haven't supported either side. Either because of their relationship with the US, or because of their own sense of decency in not supporting mass murderers, they have stayed clear of the issue.

Israel however, is used as an excuse for anything and everything that has gone wrong in the ME, which is has been incredibly stifling to the people and Nations who make the accusations. Instead of addressing their many problems, they just blame it on Israel, and move on without solving any of their problems.

How much is Mossad paying you to spread this Hasbara?
 
How much is Mossad paying you to spread this Hasbara?

:)

In all seriousness, I have been pretty darn critical of Israel, but I have always tied that criticism to the facts on the ground (like Jewish only roads, lists of laws in Israel that favor Jewish ethnicities, etc.).



However, it has always seemed ridiculous to me to blame anything and everything that has gone wrong in the world on the Jews though.

Don't like the weather? DEATH TO ALL JEWS!

Don't like your government? DEATH TO ALL JEWS!

Your favorite TV show has been cancelled?!? Then:


 
Interesting update:
Most of the weapons shipped at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Qatar to supply Syrian rebel groups fighting the government of Bashar Assad are going to hard-line Islamic jihadists, and not the more secular opposition groups that the West wants to bolster, according to U.S. officials and Middle Eastern diplomats.
...Syrian conflict that has now claimed more than 25,000 lives, casts into doubt whether the White House's strategy of minimal and indirect intervention in the Syrian conflict is accomplishing its intended purpose of helping a democratic-minded opposition topple an oppressive government.
"The opposition groups that are receiving the most of the lethal aid are exactly the ones we don't want to have it," said one U.S. official familiar with the outlines of those findings, commenting on an operation that in American eyes has increasingly gone awry.
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories...ns-to-syria-is-said-to-help-jihadists-657600/

Oops.
 
Notice how he tries to make it look like he isn't clever by posting jihadwatch and freerepublic links. Chutzpah! :D

:dig:

yeah... so.

Since the only thing that got your response in the "How Can Peace in Syria be Achieved" thread is a criticism of a link to Jihad watch and a criticism for not including Assad's last name...

Did you read about the Jewish Zionist sharks?


On an apparently separate note, there's this war in Syria, and a whole lotta evidence showing that this guy Assad has been killing thousands of people. Aerial pictures, videos, photos, thousands of witnesses...

Do you have any serious ideas about what should be done about that? Or are you just here to cheerlead?
 

Thank you for your post.

The Gazette is definitely not alone in publishing the story, and both papers make a point to note that this information was from a "classified report," which is important, since classified information like that would not have been leaked for no reason.

There does seem to be a reason for that though. Especially when coupled with this:

American officials have been trying to understand why hard-line Islamists have received the lion’s share of the arms shipped to the Syrian opposition through the shadowy pipeline with roots in Qatar, and, to a lesser degree, Saudi Arabia. The officials, voicing frustration, say there is no central clearinghouse for the shipments, and no effective way of vetting the groups that ultimately receive them.

Those problems were central concerns for the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, David H. Petraeus, when he traveled secretly to Turkey last month, officials said.

The C.I.A. has not commented on Mr. Petraeus’s trip, made to a region he knows well from his days as the Army general in charge of Central Command, which is responsible for all American military operations in the Middle East. Officials of countries in the region say that Mr. Petraeus has been deeply involved in trying to steer the supply effort, though American officials dispute that assertion.

One Middle Eastern diplomat who has dealt extensively with the C.I.A. on the issue said that Mr. Petraeus’s goal was to oversee the process of “vetting, and then shaping, an opposition that the U.S. thinks it can work with.” According to American and Arab officials, the C.I.A. has sent officers to Turkey to help direct the aid, but the agency has been hampered by a lack of good intelligence about many rebel figures and factions.


One possible reason for releasing that type of classified information would be to garner support for a greater CIA role in the vetting process.

And ultimately we are left with little other choice, but to do just that.


There is hard evidence that Assad has been murdering thousands of his own citizens in ever increasing numbers, and the US and other parties who have a public stake in supporting basic human rights cannot just stay silent about that.

If all support for the rebels was cut off, there would be less and less able to stop Assad from what he has termed "cleansing" the country of "terrorists." With the term "terrorist" being used to define anyone who is suspected of not supporting the regime.

A designation that has included thousands of innocent men, women, and children.

The groups that have bothered to keep count of the number of people that have been killed in the conflict put over 70% of the deaths as civilians. A large portion of whom have been killed in government "cleansings."

People living in their houses when they are bombed by artillery and air fire. Military age men rounded up in government sweeps. Families of people suspected of not supporting the regime. Citizens living in cities suspected of not supporting the regime. All killed in the government "cleansings" of "terrorists."

Were the government to roll through Eastern Syrian unopposed while being allowed to be unaccountable for any of their actions by their allies short of using chemical/biological weapons, the death toll could quickly jump from a third of 100,000 to a few hundred thousand casualties or more.


Yet the US and others cannot ignore the extremists in Syria either.

Increased vetting would help, but would not solve the problem.

One of the best things that could solve the problem would be a negotiated settlement. Because in the end, neither side will want the extremists there after the war.

A Russian switch to helping to end the war instead of sustaining it would bring about a solution. As would an Alawite revolt against the Assad regime. Or possibly a negotiated settlement from Brahimi.

However, in my view, a move towards peace is the best way, and maybe the only way to seriously address the extremist problem.

So what do you think should be done about it?


I have included part of my post from the AQ thread that talks about just this:
Syria is not the same as Mali, Somalia, or Yemen, and any official AQ government structure that has been set up in those countries would not be accepted by the Syrian public. The FSA knows that the Syrian people would never accept a government that includes AQ elements, and they know that their support from Saudi Arabia and Qatar is dependent on their independence from the group. The FSA clashes with AQ groups, and the FSA killings of some of their leaders represent the diametrically opposed goals of the FSA and AQ.

Assad uses AQ as an excuse to carry out his own mass terrorism campaign, but ironically it will be the inevitable fall of the Assad regime that will be the biggest blow to AQ in the country.

While the goals of the FSA and AQ are diametrically opposed, the FSA does not currently have the reserves and capability to open up a second major front in their war against the extremists created by the vacuum of power from Assad's mass killing campaign against his own people.

It will not be until the FSA is able to stop Assad's forces from killing tens of thousands of Syrians on top of the reported 30,000+ people in Syria that have already died when they will really be able to take back their country for all Syrians.

At that point, AQ will largely be remembered as an excuse that the former Assad regime used to needlessly kill massive numbers of his own people, and will have little influence on the future of the new Syrian government.
 
CE, JJ and CL want Assad to win. They're on his side.

We all have bias.

It is our ability to be honest about our own bias and put forth fact based, rational arguments that decides whether our ideas are substantive or not.
 
I would crumple all of the 'intelligence reports' and file them in the 'circular file' (waste bin).
Then I would work directly with the groups and countries that have proven themselves to be actually 'moderate'. That includes (gasp) the Brotherhood.

But alas I'm a realist, so I'll just watch the devastation continue. Who knows what Syria will turn into. Probably another Afghanistan..

Let me add that Turkey has had enough shenanigans. I hope they unleash their firepower on the Syrian government.
 
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That is a fair question.

I focused on the main players, because, for all of their huff and puff, none of the ones that you noted (besides the US during peace negotiations), will actually have the main impact.

I have been planning a much longer post on this, but am going to be very busy until Thursday.


Here is the 'short' summary.

  • The US has been trying to regain the moral high ground after the damage that has been done to their credibility from their recent history of extraordinary renditions, a war of choice in Iraq, and a loss of financial clout. Just another dying empire crying out to stay relevant. They have given little real support to the rebels beyond verbal encouragement, and condemnation of the War Crimes from the Assad regime. Although, to be fair, the whole world has been bombarded again and again with hard evidence of the Syrian regime carrying out mass killings in their own country, and a country that touts human rights as such a high priority cannot just stand by and not say anything about that.

  • As for Israel, if they were following their own best interests, they would do all that they could to keep the Assad regime in power. Despite his rhetoric, he is unlikely to directly attack Israel ever, and that threat would be much more dire if Syria destabilizes to the point that extremists could get their hands on Syria's biological and chemical weapons. So, since they would lose either way, Israel has been very quiet on the whole issue. And even though they would win more by supporting a mass murdering dictator, they haven't supported either side. Either because of their relationship with the US, or because of their own sense of decency in not supporting mass murderers, they have stayed clear of the issue.

    Israel however, is used as an excuse for anything and everything that has gone wrong in the ME, which is has been incredibly stifling to the people and Nations who make the accusations. Instead of addressing their many problems, they just blame it on Israel, and move on without solving any of their problems.

    Which is what many people have done in this case as well. They could address the mass killings in Syria, and work towards a solution, but that's hard. It's much easier to just blame it all on Israel and not have to go through the trouble of thinking.



    France and Germany mainly just don't want to get involved.

  • France is peeved about the huge mess and mass killings that Assad had brought on his country, when they had at one time set aside a separate Alawite State to prevent the very kind of sectarian killing that has been occurring since the Assad regime came into power in their bloody coup. But there's nothing really that they can do about it while Iran and Russia gotz his back no matter how many of his own people he kills (short of using chemical weapons, he just has to continue his mass killings in the 'acceptable' way).

  • Germany just doesn't want to get involved. Period. As the de-facto financial ruler of the EU, they have a lot of other problems to worry about, and mass killings in the Middle East are just a perpetual problem of whack a mole that can never be solved.

Ultimately, Russia is the only Country in the world that can single handedly solve this crisis. A choice that if they decide to make it, could save tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of lives, and almost more importantly for them, could be the best way to ensure their financial and military assets in the Country.

Who knows if they would do it though, right now they seem content in perpetuating the conflict rather than working to end it.


Russia, is by far not the only path towards a peaceful resolution though, just one of the most straight forward.

I see, so covert warfare doesn't exist in your world.
 
CE, JJ and CL want Assad to win. They're on his side.

Not inaccurate for my part. Not the best outcome necessarily, but a likely one if Syria is left alone, and far better than the psychos we're studying taking over and wreaking vengeance for the crimes they committed themselves and blamed the "insane regime" for. So it's the best realistic outcome.

Or, you could buy their blame, and base your moral compass on what the false-flagging child-slashers told you. Their Houla massacre story, as our main core sample, is being buried deeper under emerging truth every day.
 
I see, so covert warfare doesn't exist in your world.

Sure there is covert warfare, but who would run a covert war if it was directly against your National security interests?

As I am no doubt assuming that you are referring to Israel.
 
I would crumple all of the 'intelligence reports' and file them in the 'circular file' (waste bin).
Then I would work directly with the groups and countries that have proven themselves to be actually 'moderate'. That includes (gasp) the Brotherhood.

But alas I'm a realist, so I'll just watch the devastation continue. Who knows what Syria will turn into. Probably another Afghanistan..

Let me add that Turkey has had enough shenanigans. I hope they unleash their firepower on the Syrian government.

I don't think that there's a massive push to not include the Muslim Brotherhood in negotiations. People are just mainly worried about AQ linked groups, as that is a whole nother matter entirely.

Plus you cannot just completely marginalize the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria if you want Egypt to continue to play their role in possibly helping to end the conflict.
 
Not inaccurate for my part. Not the best outcome necessarily, but a likely one if Syria is left alone, and far better than the psychos we're studying taking over and wreaking vengeance for the crimes they committed themselves and blamed the "insane regime" for. So it's the best realistic outcome.

Or, you could buy their blame, and base your moral compass on what the false-flagging child-slashers told you. Their Houla massacre story, as our main core sample, is being buried deeper under emerging truth every day.

You start off by noting how you categorically deny just being here to cheer on the Assad regime while ignoring nearly all of the facts on the ground.

And than you go on to note how justified someone would be who did cheer him on...


Who cares if tens of thousands of people are needlessly dying in Syria? All that matters is GO TEAM!
 

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