How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[HoverBoarder]

Will Egypt help to work on a sollution for Syria?

Egypt’s Leader Warns Assad: ‘Your Time Won’t Be Long’

Mr. Morsi, speaking at an Arab League meeting in the Egyptian capital, urged Mr. Assad to heed the lessons of “recent history” — the overthrow of dictators in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Egypt. Step down while you can, he told Mr. Assad.

“There is still a chance to stop the bloodshed,” Mr. Morsi said in the Arab League hall. “There is no room for stubbornness. Don’t listen to the voices that tempt you to stay.”

 

[JihadJane]

Will Egypt help to work on a sollution for Syria?

Egypt’s Leader Warns Assad: ‘Your Time Won’t Be Long’

Sounds like Mr. Morsi has got Hilary Clinton's hand up his ass.

 

[JihadJane]

And the IMF's.

 

[JihadJane]

And Qatar's.

 

[Robrob]

How can peace in Syria be achieved?

By the dictator stepping down and allowing the people a free and democratic vote?

 

[Childlike Empress]

As you know there was a constitutional referendum this year. There was also a parliamentary election under the new constitution. And presidential elections are scheduled for, what, early, 2014? Far from perfect under the circumstances, definitely, but closing the border to Turkey is much more relevant than Assad stepping down to achieving peace in Syria.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Remind me, how does the urban warfare in Syria look any different from the urban warfare in Fallujah?

The Marines are more disciplined and typically better shots. That said, urban warfare (MOUT) looks more or less the same to most soldiers. The other difference is that there is little to no chance any of the Marines were related to someone in Fallujah. What the soldiers in Syria are facing is that they may be shooting at kin.

The dictator will, of course, fail miserably to fix what he broke. The failed country will complete it's descent into chaos and anarchy.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Whatever. It will be interesting to see what happens when a country like Syria completely disintegrates.

Someone will find a way to make a buck out of it ... just watch.

The whole reason that we have the International Criminal Court in the first place is because there are some moral laws at the basis of a governing body that are set up to specifically protect against War Crimes and other internationally illegal acts from occuring.

That is a naive statement. ICC exists because kangaroos need jobs.
As judges.

You are not allowed to commit war crimes. Plain and simple.

Wrong. Some people get hauled up for it. Others don't.
Who are your friends?

Legally, when an army starts to commit war crimes, especially on a massive scale, it is up to the army to refuse those orders.

I think you and I need to share a few PM's. You are painting with a very, very broad and vague brush.

The ways in which peace can be achieved in Syria are sharply attenuated by both the greatness of God and the Syrians' attitude toward said greatness, which they fervently proclaim each time they are able to carry out a successful military operation.

God (in the aspect of Allah) has a surplus of virgins who are bored witless. The Syrians are filling a void.

The Syrian Christians, are, as you might expect, a bit nervous about all of this.

Shelling and intentionally targeting civilian/protected sites devoid of any military objective is in itself, terrorism. The issue of taking responsibility or blaming others for these actions does not take away from the terrorism label.

No, it is not. You are trying to exchange definition between words. Please stop. Also, you presume that any shelling is only aimed at "civilians" which distinction is rather moot in a civil war. I think you believe too much of what you read in the lying press.

All that said, I believe that there are a number of cases in the current conflict where any pretense of getting the RoE right and not targeting non combatatants has been tossed out of the window. Might be something along the lines of a war crime, this being a civil war.

They are still dead, of course.

Will Egypt help to work on a sollution for Syria?

Egypt’s Leader Warns Assad: ‘Your Time Won’t Be Long’

Now that's funny, I don't care who you are.

Sounds like Mr. Morsi has got Hilary Clinton's hand up his ass.

In his wildest kinky dreams.

There is no accounting for taste.

 

[IDB87]

And Qatar's.

Qatar? Really?


...Really?

 

[JihadJane]

'The Perils of Saudi Arabia Bankrolling U.S. Foreign Policy'

For more than a quarter century, Saudi Arabia and the United States have had a grand bargain: they sell us overpriced oil in exchange for virtually unlimited access to our advanced weapons. (Of the $66 billion in U.S. arms sales abroad last year, half went to Saudi Arabia.) In addition, Riyadh agreed to fund U.S. covert operations around the world with its surplus petrodollars.

 

[HoverBoarder]

One of the biggest indications that there could be an end to the war in Syria occured recently within the Alawite community.

There are signs that many Alawites do not want to go down with the failed Assad regime, and recent fighting between Alawites over whether or not to go down fighting with Assad, or support a new Syrian state that represents all Syrians reportedly caused the death of major Assad insiders.


Here is a very good interview on the possibility of an Alawite State that could be developed for the minority sect that has been killing massive numbers of Syrians to retain power.

Is Assad Carving Out A Haven For Syria's Alawites?


Another important factor has been the increase in reports of protection money paid by Alawites to the feared Shabiha militants who have been tied to many of the main mass murders incidents in Syria.

Fearful Alawites pay sectarian militias in battered Homs



There are now a few ways out to end this conflict, either through convincing enough Alawites to abandon their support for the Assad regime, and back a new representative Syrian government.

Or by convincing the Russians that their financial and military assets in the country would be protected if they drop their support for the inevitably doomed regime (something that they are well aware of).

 

[JihadJane]

You only mention Russia. What about all the other foreigners pursuing their poxy, proxy agendas in Syria?

 

[HoverBoarder]

You only mention Russia. What about all the other foreigners pursuing their poxy, proxy agendas in Syria?

You are absolutely right that they are very important factor in this conflict, and I definitely have mentioned the main actors of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar (Turkey of course is playing a big role, but that is arguably less about a proxy war for them, and more about managing the refugees and violence coming from Syria).

However, Russia is in the unique position among them to single handedly end this war any time they want, the other countries are not, although they all should be part of the solution.



I would like to hear your ideas on how to end this crisis. I personally think that it is a lot more in depth and complicated than 'people just need to stop supporting terrorists,' but I do think that there are a number of realistic pathways towards peace that go beyond one side 'winning' and one side 'losing.'

 

[HoverBoarder]

Brahimi is talking with the Turks now, after talking with the Syrian regime, and then Saudi Arabia.

Although he does not have a plan, at least he is talking to the different players.

UN's Syria envoy Brahimi to hold talks in Turkey

On the one hand, over 100 people are dying in Syria as the world waits for a plan to end the conflict.

On the other, the ceasefire plan from Kofi Anan never received the support to succeed, and it ultimately caused him to leave the post.


Brahimi will need the support from at least the vast majority of players for a viable solution to be reached, and many of the main players genuinely want to find a solution to this crisis.

• Russia is most interested in guaranteeing their military and financial assets in the country. Although, as the Syrian economy suffers, they are left with less and less financial assets to protect.
  
  They are also fully aware that the minority Alawite power structure that has long maintained control through torture, arrests, and brutal mass killings even before this conflict is no longer sustainable. Whether or not there was any outside support for the rebels at all, the fact that there is a small and dwindling number of Syrians who view Assad as a viable leader for their country means that change is inevitable. Russia would much rather that change be more on their terms, and that would largely require Syrians to forgive Russia for their role in perpetuating this conflict, and allow them to retain their assets in exchange for Russia agreeing to help end the conflict instead of sustaining it.​
• Turkey, REALLY does not want to have a war in Syria, and neither does its people. Such a war would have little benefit for Turkey beyond showing that they are willing to protect their National sovereignty and attacks from the Syrian regime, and it would likely create a larger war with Syria's Kurds.
  
  Turkey would be all in favor of a solution as long as it caused the attack on its people from the regime to stop, a solution to the Syrian refugee crisis that has cost it millions of dollars, and a stop to the mass killings that the regime has been carrying out for the last two years straight during this conflict alone.​
• Saudi Arabia definitely has its own foreign policy goals in mind, but they are also scarred to death of their own citizens joining the fight in Syria, and returning to fight their own autocratic government. Genuinely they could not stand by while Assad's forces first started to fire on unarmed protestors, and torture/kill thousands who were not part of the privileged sect of the apartheid state, but they also do not want to be drawn into a direct war with Syria.​
• Qatar will follow whatever direction Saudi Arabia and Turkey go. It is in all of the countries interests in the region (except Iran) to end the war, and as long as the killing stops, they will support a peace plan.​
• Iran will likely never support a serious peace plan. There is a lot of show from the country with 'plans' on Syria that are never designed to work or be serious, but those are designed solely to create a PR stunt to a mask their real interests. It is similar to their plan to end the nuclear weapons crisis in their country by promising to consider to stop developing weapons grade plutonium a few yeasr after all sanctions are lifted. Any peaceful solution means a serious loss of foreign policy power for them, and they are unlikely to ever stop supporting their proxy war in Syria.
  
  Any peaceful solution in Syria will come despite the actions of the Iranians, but luckily, as long as enough Syrians support the peace plan, Iran's objections will not matter.​
• China will support a plan that is generally seen as neutral, and not a major increase in power for Western aligned Nations. Their approval will likely be dependent on having a strong plan that does not require massive foreign intervention. Luckily however, that is something that every other country wants as well (well, despite Mitt Romney, but Americans wouldn't let him get away with that even if he was elected).​
• Lebanon and Jordan, which many people forget about, are also important actors. Like Turkey, they mostly want to see the violence, chaos, and flow of refugees stop. Hezbollah will likely take a bit of adjusting, but they too would accept a viable peace plan if one was drafted.​

There are many paths to peace. The most immediately effective in my view would be a change in the involvement of Russia, but there are others as well. Brahimi just needs to keep talking, and help work to bring a cooperative solution to crisis sooner rather than later.

Here is an interesting article about the war in Syria, and its likelihood to bring a greater involvement from Turkey:
On Edge as Syria’s War Knocks Ever Harder on the Door to Turkey

 

[JihadJane]

You are absolutely right that they are very important factor in this conflict, and I definitely have mentioned the main actors of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar (Turkey of course is playing a big role, but that is arguably less about a proxy war for them, and more about managing the refugees and violence coming from Syria).

However, Russia is in the unique position among them to single handedly end this war any time they want, the other countries are not, although they all should be part of the solution.

It's interesting to note which countries you have omitted from your list of countries shaping the conflict (e.g. US, UK, France, Germany, Israel). Why would this be?

 

[Toontown]

Her Grey Imminence, Childlike Empress, and JihadJane have provided us with a clear road map to a permanently collapsed hellhole, formerly known as the Iranian puppet, Syria.

For that, we owe them a debt of gratitude. Perhaps we have misjudged their motives.

 

[trustbutverify]

It's interesting to note which countries you have omitted from your list of countries shaping the conflict (e.g. US, UK, France, Germany, Israel). Why would this be?

How, specifically, is Israel shaping the conflict?

 

[Virus]

Is there any conflict a Jew hasn't been behind?

 

[trustbutverify]

Is there any conflict a Jew hasn't been behind?

Um... ALDC vs Candy Apples on "Dance Moms"?

 

[Virus]

Are you going to tell us how Israel is behind the Syrian civil war JihadJane or was that an "open mic" moment not intended for the public?

 

[HoverBoarder]

It's interesting to note which countries you have omitted from your list of countries shaping the conflict (e.g. US, UK, France, Germany, Israel). Why would this be?

That is a fair question.

I focused on the main players, because, for all of their huff and puff, none of the ones that you noted (besides the US during peace negotiations), will actually have the main impact.

I have been planning a much longer post on this, but am going to be very busy until Thursday.


Here is the 'short' summary.

• The US has been trying to regain the moral high ground after the damage that has been done to their credibility from their recent history of extraordinary renditions, a war of choice in Iraq, and a loss of financial clout. Just another dying empire crying out to stay relevant. They have given little real support to the rebels beyond verbal encouragement, and condemnation of the War Crimes from the Assad regime. Although, to be fair, the whole world has been bombarded again and again with hard evidence of the Syrian regime carrying out mass killings in their own country, and a country that touts human rights as such a high priority cannot just stand by and not say anything about that.
  
  
• As for Israel, if they were following their own best interests, they would do all that they could to keep the Assad regime in power. Despite his rhetoric, he is unlikely to directly attack Israel ever, and that threat would be much more dire if Syria destabilizes to the point that extremists could get their hands on Syria's biological and chemical weapons. So, since they would lose either way, Israel has been very quiet on the whole issue. And even though they would win more by supporting a mass murdering dictator, they haven't supported either side. Either because of their relationship with the US, or because of their own sense of decency in not supporting mass murderers, they have stayed clear of the issue.
  
  Israel however, is used as an excuse for anything and everything that has gone wrong in the ME, which is has been incredibly stifling to the people and Nations who make the accusations. Instead of addressing their many problems, they just blame it on Israel, and move on without solving any of their problems.
  
  Which is what many people have done in this case as well. They could address the mass killings in Syria, and work towards a solution, but that's hard. It's much easier to just blame it all on Israel and not have to go through the trouble of thinking.
  
  
  
  France and Germany mainly just don't want to get involved.
  
  
• France is peeved about the huge mess and mass killings that Assad had brought on his country, when they had at one time set aside a separate Alawite State to prevent the very kind of sectarian killing that has been occurring since the Assad regime came into power in their bloody coup. But there's nothing really that they can do about it while Iran and Russia gotz his back no matter how many of his own people he kills (short of using chemical weapons, he just has to continue his mass killings in the 'acceptable' way).
  
  
• Germany just doesn't want to get involved. Period. As the de-facto financial ruler of the EU, they have a lot of other problems to worry about, and mass killings in the Middle East are just a perpetual problem of whack a mole that can never be solved.

Ultimately, Russia is the only Country in the world that can single handedly solve this crisis. A choice that if they decide to make it, could save tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of lives, and almost more importantly for them, could be the best way to ensure their financial and military assets in the Country.

Who knows if they would do it though, right now they seem content in perpetuating the conflict rather than working to end it.


Russia, is by far not the only path towards a peaceful resolution though, just one of the most straight forward.