2012 Debates

[RandFan]

Hey... I don't mind the echo's. Still lots to learn.

Anyone who thinks this is an echo chamber is in the wrong place.

 

[Caper]

Anyone who thinks this is an echo chamber is in the wrong place.

Ok... I'll grant you that. Upon thinking about it.... it's not so much an echo chamber. But it definitely leans one way.... Like the Daily Show. Leans a certain way... but it's still good.

There are few good posters from the fiscal right side of things... that populate this board... that make for some good debate.

 

[RandFan]

Ok... I'll grant you that. Upon thinking about it.... it's not so much an echo chamber. But it definitely leans one way.... Like the Daily Show. Leans a certain way... but it's still good.

There are few good posters from the fiscal right side of things... that populate this board... that make for some good debate.

Fair enough. I would agree.

 

[Caper]

Err... no. If you think a single successful news cycle puts the odds of winning in Romney's favor then you are smoking something. The people who put their money where their mouths are certainly don't think that. Stating the facts ISN'T a dismissal. It's simply accepting reality. That said, Romney, at this moment has momentum and a 20% - 35% chance of winning (according to many people who make a living calculating odds and people who have actually put money on the race). Now, that's simply stating the facts also. Let me put it this way, anyone who would take an even money bet that Romney will win doesn't understand statistics and is one grade a sucker.

So, I'm really not sure what your point is. Probabilistic statements are nothing more than reality.

I hear ya... and that's a huge indicator... the betting. Also, I think Obama simply deserves... and I feel most people should feel that way. But I'm kind of surprised by the poll numbers. I feel in about two weeks.... the election should just break towards Obama, but I wouldn't bet on it. I really think Obama's race can tip the balance...didn't harm him last time... I think will hurt him this time. We'll find out.

 

[RandFan]

I hear ya... and that's a huge indicator... the betting. Also, I think Obama simply deserves... and I feel most people should feel that way. But I'm kind of surprised by the poll numbers. I feel in about two weeks.... the election should just break towards Obama, but I wouldn't bet on it. I really think Obama's race can tip the balance...didn't harm him last time... I think will hurt him this time. We'll find out.

Okay, I don't agree but I understand. Thanks.

 

[joobie]

Inspiring stuff from the greatest orator since Cicero.

who made the claim that obama was the greatest orator since cicero? did they hear cicero actually speak?

That's funny considering the forum is overwhelmingly dominated by the left.

Point a finger and there's three pointing back at you.

prove it.

 

[joobie]

Then the debate happened. And afterwards, Mr. Casual Citizen scratched his head and thought to himself, "wow, I've been sold a load of BS."

And that's what you call a game-changer.

i dunno, all my conservative friends have told be that you can't trust any poll results. so i am going to have to agree with them - we can't possibly believe that romney won the debate. furthermore, apparently if you believe the results of a poll you are the dumbest moron ever. that is apparently the charitable way to describe someone that believes a poll might be true.

 

[Cain]

The good thing about this debate is that conservatives will feel even more crushed on election day. (I hope.)

 

[joobie]

btw the cicero that was a forum member? there's no way he was a better speaker than obama. he's probably still insisting JFK said he was a jelly doughnut.

 

[RandFan]

btw the cicero that was a forum member? there's no way he was a better speaker than obama. he's probably still insisting JFK said he was a jelly doughnut.

I was disabused of that myth by a Berliner who was a young child at the time of JFK's speech. As he said, not a single German ever thought for a moment that JFK erred in his statement.

 

[joobie]

there's a famous thread here where cicero attempted to argue against multiple native german speakers - i think one was chaos - that JFK said he was a doughnut and the native germans were wrong.

 

[Eddie Dane]

That's funny considering the forum is overwhelmingly dominated by the left.

Point a finger and there's three pointing back at you.

I have to agree with you.
The forum seems overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrat.

However, it's not like you get a beat-down like on echo-chamber forums.
Instead you get arguments that you can engage and counter.

But that's just my impression.
I'm a centre-right Dutch person.
Which means that US Republicans think I'm the love-child of Pol Pot and Mao Zedong.

 

[RandFan]

I have to agree with you.
The forum seems overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrat.

However, it's not like you get a beat-down like on echo-chamber forums.
Instead you get arguments that you can engage and counter.

But that's just my impression.
I'm a centre-right Dutch person.
Which means that US Republicans think I'm the love-child of Pol Pot and Mao Zedong.

There are a number of Republicans here who are willing to engage in discussion and debate. Some are good friends of mine from before I moved left. It's not as if productive dialog is impossible to those who are willing to engage in it.

 

[remirol]

I think Virus is a good representative of those who live in the Republican echo chamber. They have no interest in interacting with those who disagree. They are right, because everywhere they "live" everyone agrees.

? To me, Virus is representative of people who live in Australia and know little to nothing about America. (points at "location" entry). I don't respond to him because there's no point; it would be tantamount to me going over to the Aussie politics thread and shouting about "Labour". He doesn't vote, he doesn't live here, and therefore he doesn't matter.

 

[Giz]

? To me, Virus is representative of people who live in Australia and know little to nothing about America. (points at "location" entry). I don't respond to him because there's no point; it would be tantamount to me going over to the Aussie politics thread and shouting about "Labour". He doesn't vote, he doesn't live here, and therefore he doesn't matter.

It depends if you view the Politics Forum as a place for debate or just as a place to convert potential voters to your way of thinking.

 

[remirol]

If Obama is such a walkover for Romney what do you think the Russians did to him? Is that how Putin got his "flexibility"?

Here's my favorite post-debate write-up so far:

Anatomy of a Disastrous Debate Performance.

In other words; the clothes have no emperor.

As an Obama supporter ANT, do you feel played for a sucker after seeing him humiliated on prime time TV?

I loved Obama's closing statement. "Everyone's getting their fair share, um I mean everyone is getting their fair rules, I mean...playing by their same share uh, playing by the same rules."

Inspiring stuff from the greatest orator since Cicero.

That's funny considering the forum is overwhelmingly dominated by the left.

Point a finger and there's three pointing back at you.

It depends if you view the Politics Forum as a place for debate or just as a place to convert potential voters to your way of thinking.

Precisely my point -- though I would've picked option '3'.

 

[Cl1mh4224rd]

If you think a single successful news cycle puts the odds of winning in Romney's favor [...]

Not at all. But for him to have two or three successful news cycles, he first needs to have one. That's part of my point.

To a lot of people, how Romney performs "now" appears more important than how he performed in the past. So, if he makes a good sprint at the end of the race, all those previous stumbles may not matter too much. People are weird like that. That's also part of my point.

Let me put it this way, anyone who would take an even money bet that Romney will win doesn't understand statistics and is one grade a sucker.

If you were to place your bet based on the odds as they are now and hold the election now, sure, it would be a stupid bet. That, however, is not reality. The reality is that the elections are some weeks away and at the moment Romney appears to have a very decent upward trend due to a single (relatively) good performance. If he's able to repeat that performance and maintain the current trend, by the time the elections roll around, that bet may not be so bad. And that is why people are "getting wet" over "a single good news cycle".

Personally, I'm hopeful that Obama will win, but I don't agree with your attempt to cut off at the knees anyone on the Right feeling a bit excited by his debate performance. They have every reason to feel that way.

 

[DavidJames]

Personally, I'm hopeful that Obama will win, but I don't agree with your attempt to cut off at the knees anyone on the Right feeling a bit excited by his debate performance. They have every reason to feel that way.

I agree with you. I don't understand the level of confidence I see here.

 

[Cl1mh4224rd]

(I wanted to add this to my previous post, but between the time I clicked Edit and the time I clicked Save, the edit window expired. That's a first for me. )

If you were to place your bet based on the odds as they are now and hold the election now, sure, it would be a stupid bet. That, however, is not reality. The reality is that the elections are some weeks away and at the moment Romney appears to have a very decent upward trend due to a single (relatively) good performance. If he's able to repeat that performance and maintain the current trend, by the time the elections roll around, that bet may not be so bad. And that is why people are "getting wet" over "a single good news cycle".

I guess another way of putting this is that anyone who is excited by Romney's debate performance isn't seeing it as a good performance at the end of a long string of poor performances. They're seeing it as the beginning of a last-second comeback. If you enjoy sports, you know how exciting that glimmer of hope can be.

 

[grunion]

(I wanted to add this to my previous post, but between the time I clicked Edit and the time I clicked Save, the edit window expired. That's a first for me. )




I guess another way of putting this is that anyone who is excited by Romney's debate performance isn't seeing it as a good performance at the end of a long string of poor performances. They're seeing it as the beginning of a last-second comeback. If you enjoy sports, you know how exciting that glimmer of hope can be.

Agreed. I don't think Romney is acting over-confident either, adding to the momentum of the win. And I do see a sense of desperation in the Obama team that is lasting longer than I expected - I really thought we'd be on to other things by now.

I'm hoping one or two more news cycles and Ohio voters are back to reality.