Vaccine/autism CT discussion

[000063]

A series of Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacies.

Funny how you can learn new words to abuse as handwaves, but not what you're actually talking about.

I genuinely don't understand some of the claims that the incidence of infectious diseases was decreasing before the introduction of vaccines. ...

Bobby's trolling. He's saying anything that sounds plausible to him to keep the ball in the air, whether it makes sense or not.

Not very rational.

No, you're not.

If you have a point, then state it. If you don't then why ask?

Just one question at a time, please.

Good one, troll. We all know that you don't address questions even when people ask just one.

I do not respond to a poster's question unless he first states a point. Do you have one?

Case in point.

 

[Straw Man]

"Medical technology"??? Like what?

You obviously missed the posts in this thread about iron lungs. Saved thousands of lives, even if it meant those lives were to be confined to the iron lung for the rest of their lives.

Are you claiming these big lumps of technology did not affect the death rates from polio?

 

[Estellea]

Sometimes it may be prudent to vaccinate. But it is never unwise to think twice.

So what should we be doing with regards to polio vaccination?

Este

 

[Straw Man]

sorry. what does * * * mean?

Robert choking on his own baloney?

 

[Andy_Ross]

You obviously missed the posts in this thread about iron lungs. Saved thousands of lives, even if it meant those lives were to be confined to the iron lung for the rest of their lives.

Are you claiming these big lumps of technology did not affect the death rates from polio?

It wasn't always for the rest of a life.

A few months ago there was a piece on a BBC history prog interviewing people who had Polio or had relatives who died from it in the 1950s. One of the interviewees had been in an Iron Lung for 4 months until he re established his own breathing. He spent 2 years in hospital altogether.

 

[Robert Prey]

So what should we be doing with regards to polio vaccination?

Este

As with all vaccines , think twice. Research it pro and con, including the anti-vax web sites which often cite mainstream sources you don't hear about from the Medical/Phamacological Industrial Complex. What are the chances of getting the disease without vaccination? What are the chances of getting the disease as a result of the vaccination? What are other risks including such possibilities as Autism and Guillian Barre Syndrome, not to mention the risk of Cancer.

"In a July 15, 2001 report, the San Francisco Chronicle published a story detailing an increased concern among researchers that the SV40 virus found in those early polio vaccines was indeed responsible for higher cancer rates."

"For four decades, government officials have insisted that there is no evidence the simian virus called SV40 is harmful to humans. But in recent years, dozens of scientific studies have found the virus in a steadily increasing number of rare brain, bone and lung-related tumors - the same malignant cancer SV40 causes in lab animals," the report said. "Even more troubling, the virus has been detected in tumors removed from people never inoculated with the contaminated vaccine, leading some to worry that those infected by the vaccine might be spreading SV40."

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/032854_SV40_polio_vaccines.html#ixzz27aZhiVJo

 

[Robert Prey]

My point was covered in earlier posts, Robert.
Polio is nearing eradication in India and I'm asking what factors have contributed to that, if not the massive polio vaccination programme?
http://csis.org/files/publication/120117_Schaffer_PolioIndia_Web.pdf

Perhaps vaccinations helped. Sometimes it happens. As does Natural Herd Immunity.

 

[abaddon]

Still avoiding the question Robert?

Here is one question.

Why is your graph hosted on an Italian website and not on the CDC website?

 

[Tomblvd]

Perhaps vaccinations helped. Sometimes it happens. As does Natural Herd Immunity.

It just so happens that there are only a few countries where polio is yet to be eradicated or had made a recurrence. These countries have one thing in common, very low vaccination rates. When not enough children are inoculated, polio rates go up.

There is no way to include herd immunity into this issue without first including vaccination.

Unless you have a better theory?

 

[Estellea]

As with all vaccines , think twice. Research it pro and con, including the anti-vax web sites which often cite mainstream sources you don't hear about from the Medical/Phamacological Industrial Complex. What are the chances of getting the disease without vaccination? What are the chances of getting the disease as a result of the vaccination? What are other risks including such possibilities as Autism and Guillian Barre Syndrome, not to mention the risk of Cancer.

Think twice? That is a non-answer. I thought plenty about my children's and my own vaccination and decided to even though the chances of them acquiring some of the diseases were very low to nil. I can't control the anti-vaxx campaigns scaring parents away from vaccinations and can't control global travel which may bring an eliminated disease like polio into my community. And after having an infant too young to be fully vaccinated for pertussis getting it, why wouldn't I reduce other VPDs? You are perpetuating a false balance as though anti-vaxxers have any valid evidence to their claims and you being an indication, do not. There is only evidence, not pro or anti. You can't support the claim that vaccines cause autism yet you provide that as a vaccine side effect. How many vaccines cause disease and even to the extent that natural disease would? What are the stats on that?

"In a July 15, 2001 report, the San Francisco Chronicle published a story detailing an increased concern among researchers that the SV40 virus found in those early polio vaccines was indeed responsible for higher cancer rates."

"For four decades, government officials have insisted that there is no evidence the simian virus called SV40 is harmful to humans. But in recent years, dozens of scientific studies have found the virus in a steadily increasing number of rare brain, bone and lung-related tumors - the same malignant cancer SV40 causes in lab animals," the report said. "Even more troubling, the virus has been detected in tumors removed from people never inoculated with the contaminated vaccine, leading some to worry that those infected by the vaccine might be spreading SV40."

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/032854_SV40_polio_vaccines.html#ixzz27aZhiVJo

Learn more from natural news? Are you joking? That site is for the credulous and foolish, not those able to actually parse the literature themselves and there is still no evidence that SV-40 (an adventitious virus that hasn't been present in IPV for several decades) causes mesotheliomas in humans and my sources are a darn sight better than your hysterical Mikey Adams screeds.

Este

 

[jdc324]

As with all vaccines , think twice. Research it pro and con, including the anti-vax web sites which often cite mainstream sources you don't hear about from the Medical/Phamacological Industrial Complex. What are the chances of getting the disease without vaccination? What are the chances of getting the disease as a result of the vaccination? What are other risks including such possibilities as Autism and Guillian Barre Syndrome, not to mention the risk of Cancer.

"In a July 15, 2001 report, the San Francisco Chronicle published a story detailing an increased concern among researchers that the SV40 virus found in those early polio vaccines was indeed responsible for higher cancer rates."

"For four decades, government officials have insisted that there is no evidence the simian virus called SV40 is harmful to humans. But in recent years, dozens of scientific studies have found the virus in a steadily increasing number of rare brain, bone and lung-related tumors - the same malignant cancer SV40 causes in lab animals," the report said. "Even more troubling, the virus has been detected in tumors removed from people never inoculated with the contaminated vaccine, leading some to worry that those infected by the vaccine might be spreading SV40."

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/032854_SV40_polio_vaccines.html#ixzz27aZhiVJo

Estellea asked "So what should we be doing with regards to polio vaccination?" Presumably meaning what should we be doing now. Given that SV40 was found in polio vaccines produced between 1955 and 1961 I'm not sure that it is relevant to discussion of what we should be doing now. Unless you have a time machine and can go back to the 50s to warn everyone? (I did see one unsubstantiated claim that former Soviet bloc countries had some contaminated vaccines in the 1970s - in which case, you'd only be 30 years late rather than 50.) The alleged link to cancers in humans is controversial and this paper found no association between polio vaccine contaminated with SV40 and cancer: http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/95/7/532.abstract

Vaccines and autism: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2908388/

Twenty epidemiologic studies have shown that neither thimerosal nor MMR vaccine causes autism. These studies have been performed in several countries by many different investigators who have employed a multitude of epidemiologic and statistical methods. The large size of the studied populations has afforded a level of statistical power sufficient to detect even rare associations. These studies, in concert with the biological implausibility that vaccines overwhelm a child’s immune system, have effectively dismissed the notion that vaccines cause autism. Further studies on the cause or causes of autism should focus on more-promising leads.

Vaccines and GBS: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1008553#t=articleDiscussion

In conclusion, these findings suggest that the H1N1 vaccine has a reasonable safety profile, and there is no evidence that the vaccine is associated with an increased risk of the Guillain–Barré syndrome.

 

[000063]

As with all vaccines , think twice. Research it pro and con, including the anti-vax web sites which often cite mainstream sources you don't hear about from the Medical/Phamacological Industrial Complex. What are the chances of getting the disease without vaccination?

For an individual, very slim, due almost entirely due to the herd immunity provided by vaccination. Of course, when vaccine rates drop, infections inevitably go up.

What are the chances of getting the disease as a result of the vaccination?

Worse than getting it from not being vaccinated.

What are other risks including such possibilities as Autism and Guillian Barre Syndrome, not to mention the risk of Cancer.

Begging the question.

"In a July 15, 2001 report, the San Francisco Chronicle published a story detailing an increased concern among researchers that the SV40 virus found in those early polio vaccines was indeed responsible for higher cancer rates."

"For four decades, government officials have insisted that there is no evidence the simian virus called SV40 is harmful to humans. But in recent years, dozens of scientific studies have found the virus in a steadily increasing number of rare brain, bone and lung-related tumors - the same malignant cancer SV40 causes in lab animals," the report said. "Even more troubling, the virus has been detected in tumors removed from people never inoculated with the contaminated vaccine, leading some to worry that those infected by the vaccine might be spreading SV40."

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/032854_SV40_polio_vaccines.html#ixzz27aZhiVJo

Curious that you don't provide the link to the actual report, which happens to be dead.

It's funny how people who aren't vaxxed can get diseases from those who are at one point, but benefit from herd immunity at another, huh?

You say look at both sides, but present only the anti-vaxxer side.

 

[Stamuel]

Perhaps vaccinations helped. Sometimes it happens. As does Natural Herd Immunity.

I have been wondering about the idea of natural herd immunity, which as Robert is using it primarily has to do with acquired immunity from actually getting the disease. It seems initially implausible that a community could achieve >90% immunity through infection spreading. As the fraction of immune individuals increased, the incidence and prevalence would wane, to the point where incidence is less than the birth rate and we cannot get full herd immunity. However, I am not a statistician or epidemiologist, and I have been astounded by results in mathematics and statistics before, so I will not rule it out entirely yet.

To investigate, I first did a Google Scholar search. I found 29 hits for the phrase "natural herd immunity". Many of these papers were about cattle or birds. The first result was a paper about TB in children. Here is the part about natural herd immunity (p. 1308):

However, the level of natural resistance (without immune stimulation from vaccination or natural mycobacterial infection) offered by immune-competent individuals to M. tuberculosis is high, and the vast majority (90%) of persons infected with the bacillus will never develop any clinical illness.58 This high level of natural resistance against M. tuberculosis implies that a high degree of ‘natural herd immunity’ pre-exists in immunecompetent communities.

Notice that they are here talking about resistance that is not acquired (by vaccine or infection). Furthermore, this is a disease that can be passed on by people who are resistant to it, so diseases that are not like that cannot be addressed in this way. Thus, still no confirmation that herd immunity can develop through mass contagious infection.

Next I went to PubMed. My search for "natural herd immunity" went something like this:

Quoted phrase not found.

I am still open to the possibility that herd immunity can result from an epidemic, but so far I cannot find any evidence that it does happen.

 

[Estellea]

Perhaps vaccinations helped. Sometimes it happens. As does Natural Herd Immunity.

So Robert, how did naturally-acquired immunity eradicate smallpox? How did it eradicate rinderpest? How has it eliminated polio from the Western hemisphere? How is it that measles antibodies were found in nearly 100% of children by the age of 15 years old pre-vaccine still allowed for millions of cases annually if naturally-acquired herd immunity was so protective? So many questions, so much disinformation for you to answer with.

Este

 

[pakeha]

Perhaps vaccinations helped. Sometimes it happens. As does Natural Herd Immunity.

Hi, Robert.
Could you explain what you mean by 'perhaps vaccinations helped'?
I had the impression you were going to take my question some serious consideration from an anti-vaxx point of view.
The natural herd immunity didn't seem to work in this country at all, as far as I can see.

Could you give us an analysis of the situation with polio in India from an anti-vaxxer point of view? I'd be interested in knowing it.
Thanks!

As with all vaccines , think twice. ...What are other risks including such possibilities as Autism and Guillian Barre Syndrome, not to mention the risk of Cancer. ...

Could you explain the link between autism and vaccines, please?

 

[Mudcat]

Could you explain the link between autism and vaccines, please?

Some people who have Autism also had vaccinations, but I'm also sure some of them also had strawberry Kool-Aid^TM as well which is probably just as significant.

 

[Clayton Moore]

Perhaps vaccinations helped. Sometimes it happens. As does Natural Herd Immunity.

These people don't understand that the cow pox immunity to small pox was noticed and vaccine theory was born.

Today's vaccine concoctions remind me of my teen buddy working on his 57 Chevy's engine for an hour or so and saying that should do it. Start it up. It starts up or doesn't start up. There was no real plan. Even if it started up there was no knowing whether he fixed a problem, caused a problem, or made it worse.

 

[TheRedWorm]

These people don't understand that the cow pox immunity to small pox was noticed and vaccine theory was born.

Today's vaccine concoctions remind me of my teen buddy working on his 57 Chevy's engine for an hour or so and saying that should do it. Start it up. It starts up or doesn't start up. There was no real plan. Even if it started up there was no knowing whether he fixed a problem, caused a problem, or made it worse.

Except that whole evidence based medicine thing. I mean, it's not as if the evidence that vaccines are very safe and extremely effective hasn't been presented; you just don't like the evidence, so you pretend it either doesn't exist, or says something that it doesn't say.

At this point, I have to ask: Why do you even bother? (If you actually believe your position) You obviously will not be swayed (or likely, because it would be too much of a blow to your ego, won't admit that you have), and the evidence already demonstrates the safety and efficacy of vaccines, so we won't be swayed either. So again, if neither side will be swayed, why bother?

 

[pakeha]

These people don't understand that the cow pox immunity to small pox was noticed and vaccine theory was born.

Today's vaccine concoctions remind me of my teen buddy working on his 57 Chevy's engine for an hour or so and saying that should do it. Start it up. It starts up or doesn't start up. There was no real plan. Even if it started up there was no knowing whether he fixed a problem, caused a problem, or made it worse.

You mean the vaccine theory was based on observation of a cow herd?
What does that have to do with the polio situation in India?

I loved your 57 Chevy story.
How does it apply to the eradication of polio in India?

 

[000063]

Some people who have Autism also had vaccinations, but I'm also sure some of them also had strawberry Kool-Aid^TM as well which is probably just as significant.

Wait, what? They make Strawberry Kool-Aid?

These people don't understand that the cow pox immunity to small pox was noticed and vaccine theory was born.

Today's vaccine concoctions remind me of my teen buddy working on his 57 Chevy's engine for an hour or so and saying that should do it. Start it up. It starts up or doesn't start up. There was no real plan. Even if it started up there was no knowing whether he fixed a problem, caused a problem, or made it worse.

Except for all the scientific studies meant to determine exactly that, which you have quite consistently ignored, even when it directly contradicted statements you suddenly stopped making. A modern vaccine isn't brewed up by some witches on a blasted heath, Clay.