• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Vaccine/autism CT discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
Since Robert is ignoring the whole graph kerfuffle, here is another one which is much clearer in showing the incidence of polio. It also shows that polio was NOT declining prior to the introduction of the vaccines (which isn't the point anyway):

picture.php
 
Tomblvd said:
Since Robert is ignoring the whole graph kerfuffle, here is another one which is much clearer in showing the incidence of polio. It also shows that polio was NOT declining prior to the introduction of the vaccines (which isn't the point anyway):

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=694&pictureid=6665
Click to expand...
I genuinely don't understand some of the claims that the incidence of infectious diseases was decreasing before the introduction of vaccines. The mortality rate of some of those diseases may have declined but I've never seen good evidence that fewer people were being infected by them.

And if you look at what happens when vaccine coverage drops, it's quite clear that incidence begins to rise. Which is exactly what any sensible, well-informed person would expect to see.

As incidence rises, eventually you get people dying from the disease. Prior to 2006, the last death from acute measles was in 1992. Funny how there were no deaths from acute measles when vaccine coverage was sufficient for herd immunity but once it dropped (following a baseless scare) we started to see people dying from the disease again.
 

Attachments

  • MMR uptake.png
    MMR uptake.png
    5.4 KB · Views: 95
  • measles cases.jpg
    measles cases.jpg
    11 KB · Views: 97
Tomblvd said:
Since Robert is ignoring the whole graph kerfuffle, here is another one which is much clearer in showing the incidence of polio. It also shows that polio was NOT declining prior to the introduction of the vaccines (which isn't the point anyway):

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=694&pictureid=6665[/qimg]
Click to expand...

I don't see any point before 1960 where the line tends to the x axis. Even if the incident rate were in decline, why would we assume it were to continue declining to extinction instead of resurging as it has as far into the past as records extend, in a distinct pattern of decline and resurgence.

We can see two effects of the vaccine: 1) the decline drops bellow the normal minimum and continues to decline to near zero after vaccination. 2) There is no resurgence towards another peak after vaccination.

That is a correlation that can not be ignored. Since vaccination there is a distinct breaking of the predictable pattern. Perhaps Robert could offer another hypothosis based on the evidence for what might have caused this at a coincidental time to vaccination?
 
Pertussis is another good example.

I have figures for notifications and deaths in England and Wales from 1940 (from a HPA PDF). As far as I can tell, the vaccine was introduced in 1957 (sources: BBC, Guardian). If you look at the notifications of pertussis from 1940-1957 there were 1.9million in 18 years (108,000 pa). From 1958-1975 there were 375,000 notifications (21,000 pa) - a decrease of 80%. In the year the vaccine was introduced, there were 85,000 notifications. Since the introduction of the vaccine, we've never got as high as 85,000.

We did start to get worryingly close to that figure though. In the early 70s, there was a baseless vaccine scare and by 1976 vaccine coverage had dropped to a low of 31%. In 1978 there were 66,000 notifications - twice as many as there had been in any year since the introduction of the vaccine. Vaccination rates were slow to recover and in 1982 there was another outbreak and we again had 66,000 notifications. Since vaccine coverage got above 85% in the early 90s, our highest number of notifications in any one year has been 5,000. Since the outbreak in 1982, deaths have been in single figures every single year.

tl;dr Vaccination introduced, notifications reduced. Vaccine coverage drops, notifications jump right back up. Vaccine coverage goes up again, notifications fall again.
 
Tomblvd said:
I'll add my name to this 'one question':

What's your take on the polio situation in India, Pakistan and Nigeria?
Click to expand...

And while we are asking, RP, what's your take on the polio situation in India, Pakistan and Nigeria?

CM? How about you?

Maybe you could ask a Playboy model (assuming you could get one to talk to you) or a 9 year old medical expert?
 
Mudcat said:
One question (and this question is aimed at Clayton as well): Do you even care about this issue at all?

I ask because it's starting to look like I hit the nail dead on when I said that you'd like an outbreak of [insert contagion here] just so you can accuse the [insert agency here] of not doing enough to protect people from it.

I mean let's take a look at Autism for example. Hardly an outbreak of deadly zombie virus or anything, but not only do you accuse the [insert agency here] of not doing enough to protect children from it but you also accuse them of causing it in the same breath.

What do you think that tells me and the other, more rational posters and lurkers on this thread?
Click to expand...

Not very rational.
 
Straw Man said:
What about the decline in deaths that is not down to any sort of natural immunity, but to the use of medical technology before vaccination?

No word on infection rates before vaccination?

Is this just another place to set up a dodge dealership?
Click to expand...

"Medical technology"??? Like what?
 
Estellea said:
And so if people make the choice to vaccinate that is somehow the incorrect choice? What if a critical number of people decide not to as we are seeing with measles, mumps and now rubella? Since you aren't answering questions anyway, don't complain about the number.

Este
Click to expand...

Sometimes it may be prudent to vaccinate. But it is never unwise to think twice.
 
Mudcat said:
One question (and this question is aimed at Clayton as well): Do you even care about this issue at all?

I ask because it's starting to look like I hit the nail dead on when I said that you'd like an outbreak of [insert contagion here] just so you can accuse the [insert agency here] of not doing enough to protect people from it.

I mean let's take a look at Autism for example. Hardly an outbreak of deadly zombie virus or anything, but not only do you accuse the [insert agency here] of not doing enough to protect children from it but you also accuse them of causing it in the same breath.

What do you think that tells me and the other, more rational posters and lurkers on this thread?
Robert Prey said:
Not very rational.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

That last question was actually rhetorical, but yeah it doesn't exactly make you look rational now that you mention it.

So to restate the important question: Do you even care about this issue at all?

Robert Prey said:
Sometimes it may be prudent to vaccinate. But it is never unwise to think twice.
Click to expand...


There are so many truisms at play here I'm not even sure where to begin. But I'm guessing you are not in any health or maintenance related fields?
 
Last edited:
sorry. what does * * * mean?

Irun Lungs are Medical Technology that keeps people alive that would otherwise have died in large numbers.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom