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Romney on intrade

Where will Romney bottom out on Intrade

  • 31-32%

    Votes: 6 14.0%

  • 30-31%

    Votes: 3 7.0%

  • 29-30%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • 27-29%

    Votes: 1 2.3%

  • 25-27%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • Less than 25%

    Votes: 25 58.1%
  • Total voters
    43
Modified said:
How does this thing work? Can I short Romney, or buy puts?
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Yes, you can short Romney. It's buy/sell Obama (at $7.51 right now) or buy/sell Romney (at $2.51 right now). When the event occurs the market will settle at $10 (it happened) or $0 (it din't happen).

So if you sell "Romney elected Prez 2012" now, when his market settles at $0 you'll make $2.51 per share off whoever bought. You'll have to risk $7.49 per share to do it though.

(again, disclaimer: intrade explains this better than I can).

Also, Romney is down to 25.1% ($2.51) as of this writing. Cliffs approaching.
 
remirol said:
Yes, you can short Romney. It's buy/sell Obama (at $7.51 right now) or buy/sell Romney (at $2.51 right now). When the event occurs the market will settle at $10 (it happened) or $0 (it din't happen).

So if you sell "Romney elected Prez 2012" now, when his market settles at $0 you'll make $2.51 per share off whoever bought. You'll have to risk $7.49 per share to do it though.

(again, disclaimer: intrade explains this better than I can).

Also, Romney is down to 25.1% ($2.51) as of this writing. Cliffs approaching.
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I'd like to get in, but in doing a little research the term "gray area" comes up a lot in regard to whether or not it is legal in the US. I'd be a lot more comfortable if it's legality in the US/Florida had been tested. Also it seems you can not fund an account with a US credit card. Oh well, for the purposes of this thread lets say I short 1500 sh. of Romney elected, which is probably what I'd do if I was in. There is over 1500 on the bid at $2.45 as I post this. I would expect the cliff you speak of, with an opportunity to get out just after, then a bounce and slow rise where I would probably get back in and hold to election.
 
Not long at all, it's at $2.10 right now. Also, I accidentally read the comment threads at InTrade and found this little gem:

linky-linky

...and paste in case the link breaks at some point:

picture.php


ETA: No, that's not me, that's some random commenter posting. Amusing though.
 
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Nice little spike today after that lackluster performance by Hopey in the debate tonight.
 
Up to $3.59... Time to short Romney again and get ready to buy at $2.50 :D
 
remirol said:
Up to $3.59... Time to short Romney again and get ready to buy at $2.50 :D
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Aaaand if you didn't yesterday, your chance is gone. I checked at 7 this morning and it was holding at $3.40-ish -- as of right now, three hours later, Romney is down $0.47 and looks like he's falling; almost certainly because of the strong jobs report.
 
I would have to say that 70/30 seems to be about accurate. (For the actual odds of what is going to happen on election day.)
 
3.12 That was a short lived bounce. He's going to need more wind at his sales than a 24 hour incremental increase.
 
It's really volatile right now. Looks like a lot of Romney supporters are still buying Romney hoping for that bounce yesterday to continue, so it'll be a bit shaky until this settles in and the polls price in both the jobs report and the mini-bounce from the debate.
 
remirol said:
It's really volatile right now. Looks like a lot of Romney supporters are still buying Romney hoping for that bounce yesterday to continue, so it'll be a bit shaky until this settles in and the polls price in both the jobs report and the mini-bounce from the debate.
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Gotcha. Thanks.
 
remirol said:
It's really volatile right now. Looks like a lot of Romney supporters are still buying Romney hoping for that bounce yesterday to continue, so it'll be a bit shaky until this settles in and the polls price in both the jobs report and the mini-bounce from the debate.
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And by then we might see changes from the foreign policy debate.
 
Aside: I've noticed that Intrade seems to pretty consistently have numbers worse for President Obama by about 5% and better for Romney by about the same as compared to the Iowa Electronic Market. Does anyone know why this might be?

That said, the trends are pretty consistent with each other. I'm just trying to figure out the disparity.
 
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MattusMaximus said:
Aside: I've noticed that Intrade seems to pretty consistently have numbers worse for President Obama by about 5% and better for Romney by about the same as compared to the Iowa Electronic Market. Does anyone know why this might be?

That said, the trends are pretty consistent with each other. I'm just trying to figure out the disparity.
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I don't know for sure but there are two possibilities to suggest:

1. The IEM may have more academics participating, and therefore tend towards the Democrats.

2. The IEM paid out on Al Gore in 2000, because their market was based on the popular vote and not the Electoral College vote. That may have soured Republican punters on that market.

ETA: Looks like around 21 was the answer to the OP question.
 
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