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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

The race is tightening.

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MattusMaximus said:
What? Rasmussen has Obama in the lead?!!
What heresy is this??!!11!1
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Funny how people think the polls are biased when it comes out against their position, then they ignore it or make fun of it when in favor of their position. In particular when the supposed bias Rasmussen and Fox show Obama up by 2 and 9 points respectively while Gallup has Obama up by 2.

Keep this in mind the next time someone cites a Rasmussen or Fox poll and you respond with the laughing dog graphic.
 
Neally, absolutely. The only poll that really matters is in November.

And these single number polls miss the big picture, which is the structure of the electoral college.

ETA: However, when your guy is ahead, it is hard to resist some schadenfreude.
 
BenBurch said:
Neally, absolutely. The only poll that really matters is in November.

And these single number polls miss the big picture, which is the structure of the electoral college.

ETA: However, when your guy is ahead, it is hard to resist some schadenfreude.
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It was expected that selecting a VP candidate would get a bump. This is the best they could do. After all of this time I'm just not seeing it for Romney.

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Pretty big spread between likely voters and registered voters in CNN's latest poll:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/08/wow_13.php?ref=fpblg

CNN just released a new presidential poll showing a tight 2 point margin for President Obama going into the Republican convention. I’d say the even bigger story is down in the details. This is the first poll that CNN has released with “likely voters” — just like Fox’s most recent poll did. If you look at the number for registered voters it’s a 9 point Obama margin.

What that means is that President Obama has actually gained a bit of ground (obviously within the margin of error) on last week’s eye-popping poll showing him with a 7 point lead over Mitt Romney. But it also shows that turnout and propensity to vote are going to be the whole game going into November.

Likely voter screens almost always provide some GOP edge. But 7 points is an extremely large one for a presidential contest.
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The big question seems to be whether Democrats can get enough of their supporters to actually vote in November. If everyone voted, Obama would win easily. He has a 2-1 edge among unlikely voters.
 
Romney is now running what I think is an effective ad. It's 3 people talking about how they voted for Obama and have been disappointed in what's happened since.

One guy says he voted for Obama, and Obama inherited a a bad situation, but has made it worse. I have no idea if those are real people with real stories but I can see their comments resonating with a lot of independents who are still struggling.
 
Puppycow said:
Pretty big spread between likely voters and registered voters in CNN's latest poll:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/08/wow_13.php?ref=fpblg

The big question seems to be whether Democrats can get enough of their supporters to actually vote in November. If everyone voted, Obama would win easily. He has a 2-1 edge among unlikely voters.
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Nate Silver has a good analysis of this here. However, it's not really very good news for Romney...

... And yet, while this is good news for Mr. Romney, it does not qualify as great news for him. The reason is that, although a number of national polls are still reporting registered voter results, almost all the state polls released over the last month or two were conducted on a likely voter basis — his turnout advantage should already be priced into them. But Mr. Obama still leads more often than not when likely voter polls from battleground states have been released. ...
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And it's the state polls that matter, especially the swing state polls. National polls at this point are essentially meaningless.
 
Puppycow said:
The big question seems to be whether Democrats can get enough of their supporters to actually vote in November. If everyone voted, Obama would win easily. He has a 2-1 edge among unlikely voters.
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Incidentally, if you want to help get more Democrats to the polls, share this website with everyone you know, and encourage them to do likewise: http://gottavote.com
 
I was sure that it would be overall closer. Still, Romney should get a good bounce this week. Possibly the first time he passes Obama. If he can't get that much his problems are worse than I thought.
 
RandFan said:
I was sure that it would be overall closer. Still, Romney should get a good bounce this week. Possibly the first time he passes Obama. If he can't get that much his problems are worse than I thought.
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He will get a bounce. Lots of free media will do that.

But I think the cancer has metastasized. He has wounded himself mortally - didn't have to be like this. He had a shot.
 
BenBurch said:
He will get a bounce. Lots of free media will do that.

But I think the cancer has metastasized. He has wounded himself mortally - didn't have to be like this. He had a shot.
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With the economy slow to recover, IMO, this really should be reversed. But Romney is the worst possible candidate. He's everything John Kerry was and worse. There are youtube videos documenting his many, many flip flops. His gaffes, and there are a number of them but worst of all are his lies. He's such a smooth prevaricator one wonders if he's a sociopath. Conservatives don't believe he is conservative, that's what Ryan was for.
 
RandFan said:
With the economy slow to recover, IMO, this really should be reversed. But Romney is the worst possible candidate. He's everything John Kerry was and worse. There are youtube videos documenting his many, many flip flops. His gaffes, and there are a number of them but worst of all are his lies. He's such a smooth prevaricator one wonders if he's a sociopath. Conservatives don't believe he is conservative, that's what Ryan was for.
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They didn't need Ryan to get the hardcore to vote for him. They would vote for an old lame horse if it ran for POTUS as a Republican.

What they did need was to convince the swing voters that Romney would keep them in jobs, keep them secure, and keep their meager government retirement benefits intact.

Instead they have convinced the swing voters that Romney is hiding something, that his VP pick is a brittle ideologue and that neither one of them knows anything about middle-class America.
 
BenBurch said:
They didn't need Ryan to get the hardcore to vote for him. They would vote for an old lame horse if it ran for POTUS as a Republican.

What they did need was to convince the swing voters that Romney would keep them in jobs, keep them secure, and keep their meager government retirement benefits intact.

Instead they have convinced the swing voters that Romney is hiding something, that his VP pick is a brittle ideologue and that neither one of them knows anything about middle-class America.
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One way to win an election is to get the base fired up. I think Romney was in real trouble of the base not caring and just staying home. My 2 cents.
 
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