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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

This is funny cause all over fox yesterday, they were touting the Rasmussen poll (cause Romney had a lead in it) while all other recent polls showed Obama gaining a lead. It was a nice display of selective bias by them.
 
An update from the prediction markets:

Over at IEM, little has changed

Obama 60%
Romney 40%

Meanwhile, at Intrade Romney's odds have improved slightly

Obama 56%
Romney 42%

Not sure why there's a bump for Romney at Intrade versus no real movement via IEM, but we'll see how it shakes out in a few days. I'm wondering if the bump is a temporary one regarding the announcement of Ryan as his VP pick.

Anyone seen any movement in aggregated polling? Or do we have to wait a few more days for definitive polling on the Ryan pick?
 
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DavidJames said:
I will be interested to see how the VP pick impacts these polls. It's wall to wall Romney/Ryan coverage now.

CNN thinks them making campaign stops is "Breaking News".

If the post 8/11 polls don't show a significant spike for Romney, I'll be surprised.
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Interestingly, the first indication is not very well. I guess more people know about him, or at least know about his reputation than I thought:

Reaction to Ryan as VP Pick Among Least Positive Historically


PRINCETON, NJ -- Four in 10 Americans rate Mitt Romney's selection of Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate as either "excellent" or "pretty good," while 42% call the choice "only fair" or "poor." This even division is among the least positive reactions to a vice presidential choice Gallup has recorded in recent elections. Only George H.W. Bush's selection of Dan Quayle in 1988 generated a higher negative response, although it also generated higher positives.
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Among independents, 35% think he's a good pick, 42% have a meh to negative view, and 23% have no opinion.
23% of independents have a positive view of Ryan, 17% have an unfavorable view, and the rest have no opinion or have never heard of him.

In other news, the debate schedule has been set. There will be three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate, all in October. Moderators will be Jim Lehrer, Candy Crowley and Bob Schieffer for the presidential debates, and Martha Raddatz for the vice-presidential debate.
 
Again, there's Rasmussen sitting all alone. It's uncanny, isn't it? Sole beacon of truth, or paid shills used to keep the aggregate polling close?
 
Unabogie said:
Again, there's Rasmussen sitting all alone. It's uncanny, isn't it? Sole beacon of truth, or paid shills used to keep the aggregate polling close?
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Now, let's be fair.

You pick a methodology, and once you do you must stick to it.

Their methodology has a house bias, and they ALL have a house bias.

If the race were not so close, we would not be wondering about Rasmussen because they would indicate blue as well.
 
BenBurch said:
Now, let's be fair.

You pick a methodology, and once you do you must stick to it.

Their methodology has a house bias, and they ALL have a house bias.

If the race were not so close, we would not be wondering about Rasmussen because they would indicate blue as well.
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I'd be much more inclined to agree with you if Rasmussen explain that methodology. As far as I know, they keep it a secret.
 
Doesn't look like Romney got any sort of immediate, substantial bounce from the Ryan announcement. Here's a good analysis by Nate Silver on this point...

Aug. 15: To Bounce, or Not to Bounce
... But if you simply average all the data that post-dates the unveiling of Mr. Ryan as Mr. Romney’s running mate, we’re getting largely the same story that we did on Tuesday. Mr. Romney has gained a net of one point, on average, in the eleven polls conducted wholly or partially after his announcement of Mr. Ryan, compared to the prior renditions of the same surveys in the same states. This is a below-average “bounce” for the selection of a vice presidential candidate; in past elections, the bounce has averaged in the neighborhood of 4 percentage points instead. ...
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Emphasis mine. I'm thinking we'll get a better idea of where this is going in the next few days, but so far I don't really see how Romney's pick of Ryan is really helping him in the general election.
 
An interesting poll about perceptions of Romney and Obama:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh12.htm

The second one on this list asks the following question:
"Please tell me whether you think each of the following generally favors the rich, favors the middle class, or favors the poor. . . ."
Obama: the rich 18%, the middle class 42%, the poor 34%
Romney: the rich 64%, the middle class 27%, the poor 2%

Makes me wonder why Obama doesn't have a bigger lead.

Probably because a lot of the people who don't intend to vote favor Obama:
Why 90 million Americans won't vote in November

A nationwide USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll of people who are eligible to vote but aren't likely to do so finds that these stay-at-home Americans back Obama's re-election over Republican Mitt Romney by more than 2-1. Two-thirds of them say they are registered to vote. Eight in 10 say the government plays an important role in their lives.

Even so, they cite a range of reasons for declaring they won't vote or saying the odds are no better than 50-50 that they will: They're too busy. They aren't excited about either candidate. Their vote doesn't really matter. And nothing ever gets done, anyway.
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Notice in the above that all of the polls which show a 7% or greater lead for Obama are polls of registered voters. The ones that are more favorable to Romney have "likely voter" filters. Gallup is the only exception, but I think there are other things about Gallup's methods that might explain that.

Anyway, I don't think we can be too confident that these polls of registered voters are closer to the truth than Rasmussen based on this USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll of unlikely voters.
 
Looks as if the prediction markets are getting back into sync with each other, and it's not good news for Romney.

At IEM:
Obama 62.8%
Romney 38.0%

At Intrade:
Obama 57.0%
Romney 42.3%

At both markets over the last couple of days, Obama has been rising and Romney's been sinking. Seems as if all the jitters on the Ryan VP pick have passed and the markets have settled down.

As I said, not good news for Romney.

ETA: In addition, here's a good analysis by Nate Silver of why it doesn't look as if the Ryan VP pick has given Romney any kind of bounce; it also investigates the slight disparity between IEM and Intrade and why Intrade's numbers might be slightly exaggerated in Romney's favor - Link
 
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Over at Intrade, Romney continues to sink as President Obama keeps rising...

Obama 57.6%
Romney 41.2%

No real change at IEM.
 
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