Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

[BenBurch]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Rasmussen manages to break the blue streak with a tie.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Hmmm, President Obama keeps rising at IEM and Intrade. Meanwhile, Romney continues to drop at IEM and Intrade.

The gap at IEM is now about 14% and 16% at Intrade (both compared to ~10% a couple of weeks back).

Yup, that SCOTUS ruling sure did help the Republicans!

 

[Puppycow]

Something else for reporters to ask Romney about and watch him squirm:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...arger-wealth/2012/07/04/gJQAbU1SMW_story.html

 

[BenBurch]

Something else for reporters to ask Romney about and watch him squirm:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...arger-wealth/2012/07/04/gJQAbU1SMW_story.html

That is almost as bad as a bimbo on a boat, or it would seem so to me.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Something else for reporters to ask Romney about and watch him squirm:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...arger-wealth/2012/07/04/gJQAbU1SMW_story.html

Hmmm, could be something, could be nothing.

But if Romney attempts to hide it, run from it, ignore it, or refuse to answer questions about it, I think he will surely regret it.

 

[BenBurch]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

[BenBurch]

I note they have added the Intrade numbers to the chart.

 

[RandFan]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Bloomberg +13 has left the building. I feel a bit more confident about the spread.

 

[BenBurch]

Bloomberg +13 has left the building. I feel a bit more confident about the spread.

Ditto. That was a clear outlier.

 

[Unabogie]

Imagine if you took Rasmussen out of the mix entirely. I think they poll more often than the others, so their "house effect" affects all the poll aggregates more than any other.

 

[Brainster]

Something else for reporters to ask Romney about and watch him squirm:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...arger-wealth/2012/07/04/gJQAbU1SMW_story.html

Long on mystery, short on facts. Would that the national media had covered the Obama-Rezko connection as diligently.

 

[Unabogie]

Long on mystery, short on facts. Would that the national media had covered the Obama-Rezko connection as diligently.

They didn't cover it? Then how is it that all of us know about it?

 

[MattusMaximus]

I note they have added the Intrade numbers to the chart.

That's a good addition to have. Incidentally, looking at both Intrade and IEM, there seems to have been little to no affect on the numbers based upon the most recent jobs report: in both cases, President Obama is still up by about 15%+.

That's good news for President Obama and bad news for Romney. If Romney cannot gain traction based upon less than glowing jobs numbers, especially now, he's going to have a really rough go of it.

I think Romney kind of blew it last week with his fancy-shmancy trip to New Hampshire. It doesn't look good for a presidential candidate to be vacationing in his private little castle away from the rest of us little people during the Fourth of July.

The fact that Romney just doesn't get this particular point alone should be enough to give one pause when considering voting for the guy.

 

[BenBurch]

That's a good addition to have. Incidentally, looking at both Intrade and IEM, there seems to have been little to no affect on the numbers based upon the most recent jobs report: in both cases, President Obama is still up by about 15%+.

That's good news for President Obama and bad news for Romney. If Romney cannot gain traction based upon less than glowing jobs numbers, especially now, he's going to have a really rough go of it.

I think Romney kind of blew it last week with his fancy-shmancy trip to New Hampshire. It doesn't look good for a presidential candidate to be vacationing in his private little castle away from the rest of us little people during the Fourth of July.

The fact that Romney just doesn't get this particular point alone should be enough to give one pause when considering voting for the guy.

Nate Silver cautions that this last week has been light on polling, so we might not see a clear signal yet on the effect of the health care decision or the effect of the jobs numbers.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

That's a good addition to have. Incidentally, looking at both Intrade and IEM, there seems to have been little to no affect on the numbers based upon the most recent jobs report: in both cases, President Obama is still up by about 15%+.

I'm sure you realize it, but I just wanted to point out that prediction markets don't say how far ahead one candidate is. It's strictly a measure of market confidence that Obama will win by any margin at all, and not a measure of the margin. (Technically it's not even that. It's about market confidence that the stock value will go up or down as we near the election. They're very closely related ideas, though.)

This is just a quibble over the wording "Obama is still up by about 15%".

Shares in the proposition Obama will be re-elected are currently valued at about 15% higher than are shares in the proposition that Romney (or rather the Republican candidate) will be elected.

 

[AlBell]

I think Romney kind of blew it last week with his fancy-shmancy trip to New Hampshire. It doesn't look good for a presidential candidate to be vacationing in his private little castle away from the rest of us little people during the Fourth of July.

If you say so I suppose. The cost of his security detail would not have stopped no matter what he did, and I suspect he bore all other costs.

Damn shame similar coverage of the Michelle+entourage Spanish visit wasn't covered in the same (snide) detail, plus the cost to taxpayers of that trip provided. Or coverage of the multitude of Barrack's golf outings.

The fact that Romney just doesn't get this particular point alone should be enough to give one pause when considering voting for the guy.

He already gives me enough pause that I don't hold a 4th of July fete with family & friends against him.

 

[remirol]

If you say so I suppose. The cost of his security detail would not have stopped no matter what he did, and I suspect he bore all other costs.

Damn shame similar coverage of the Michelle+entourage Spanish visit wasn't covered in the same (snide) detail, plus the cost to taxpayers of that trip provided. Or coverage of the multitude of Barrack's golf outings.

It's not about the cost, I don't think. At least it isn't for me. It's that he couldn't be arsed to get out and spend some time with the public who he hopes will vote against their own best interests and elect him -- instead preferring to hang out with his personal clique of rich friends.

A very serious contention Romney has yet to adequately deal with is that he's too out of touch with the average American's situation and thus cannot be trusted to make decisions in the best interest of said hypothetical average American. When you need to show people that you're actually "in touch", retreating behind your drawbridge and pulling it up after you is almost exactly 100% opposite of what you should be doing.

 

[AlBell]

It's not about the cost, I don't think. At least it isn't for me. It's that he couldn't be arsed to get out and spend some time with the public who he hopes will vote against their own best interests and elect him -- instead preferring to hang out with his personal clique of rich friends.

A very serious contention Romney has yet to adequately deal with is that he's too out of touch with the average American's situation and thus cannot be trusted to make decisions in the best interest of said hypothetical average American. When you need to show people that you're actually "in touch", retreating behind your drawbridge and pulling it up after you is almost exactly 100% opposite of what you should be doing.

I have no doubt Mitt has no clue about joe-average, nor will he ever.

A meet-greet press-the-flesh kiss-the-baby pretense on July 4th or any other day won't imo fix that.

 

[remirol]

I have no doubt Mitt has no clue about joe-average, nor will he ever.

A meet-greet press-the-flesh kiss-the-baby pretense on July 4th or any other day won't imo fix that.

Wouldn't fix it for me either, but what it tells me is that he isn't even trying, and that's an even worse condemnation. *shrug*

 

[BenBurch]

I have no doubt Mitt has no clue about joe-average, nor will he ever.

A meet-greet press-the-flesh kiss-the-baby pretense on July 4th or any other day won't imo fix that.

But it would show that he at least was trying, wouldn't it?

I think it says something else, though; Not that he doesn't know that he ought to do this, he wouldn't have survived long as a politician if he didn't "get" this sort of thing, but that he doesn't think it's going to matter, that barring a miracle he isn't going to win, so he might as well enjoy his family.

I'd make the same decision under that circumstance.