Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

[BenBurch]

Intrade has Obama 59.3% Romney 36.7% (Different issues so they do not need to add up to 100%)

Intrade Obama 59.4%, Romney 36.0%.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Rasmussen doesn't use polls to find out what people think, they try to use poll numbers to influence people's opinion.

 

[BenBurch]

Rasmussen doesn't use polls to find out what people think, they try to use poll numbers to influence people's opinion.

I don't think I've heard of them push-polling.

By the way, WHERE votes are matters a lot;

http://electoral-vote.com/

Obama with a good electoral lead if he can hold on to his leads in Ohio and Florida.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Yet Rasmussen seems to always have poll numbers that favor conservatives much more than other polling entities.

 

[BenBurch]

Rasmussen; Walker 50, Barrett 45, Margin of error 4.5 - Dead heat.

ETA: http://www.postcrescent.com/article...Walker-leads-latest-poll-race-still-dead-heat

 

[BenBurch]

Yet Rasmussen seems to always have poll numbers that favor conservatives much more than other polling entities.

Well, that is different from push-polling; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

 

[Unabogie]

Rasmussen doesn't push poll (or at least not overtly) but they operate with secret assumptions about the "likely voter" demographic and adjust their results accordingly. The problem is that they won't explain what those assumptions are, just that they magically always favor Republicans by 4-6 points until the election gets closer. So they don't influence the opinion of those polled so much as they provide talking points to Fox News.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Well, that is different from push-polling; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

I think the fact that they favor conservatives in their polls is evidence of push-polling.

 

[Dunstan]

I think the fact that they favor conservatives in their polls is evidence of push-polling.

Have you read the definition of push-polling? It's not the same thing as a biased poll.

 

[Sword_Of_Truth]

Rasmussen; Walker 50, Barrett 45, Margin of error 4.5 - Dead heat.

ETA: http://www.postcrescent.com/article...Walker-leads-latest-poll-race-still-dead-heat

Looks more like outside the margin of error by 0.5% to me.

 

[LarianLeQuella]

By the way, WHERE votes are matters a lot;

http://electoral-vote.com/

Obama with a good electoral lead if he can hold on to his leads in Ohio and Florida.

Sadly, most of that map is based on the 2008 election reults and hasn't had a good update since then. I figure that once the conventions are done they will be able to more accurately reflect where the electoral votes lie.

This page may be the more up to date: http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012.html

 

[BenBurch]

RCP now shows only +4 points for Romney on Rasmussen, and the overall average Obama +2 with the lead growing.

 

[Spindrift]

Ron Paul could even win the democratic nomination!

And when he wins the Republican nomination as well, he'll be the first unanimously elected president since George Washington. I hope there's room on Mount Rushmore for him.

 

[BenBurch]

And when he wins the Republican nomination as well, he'll be the first unanimously elected president since George Washington. I hope there's room on Mount Rushmore for him.

Don't worry, we can blast that horse scene off Stone Mountain and put him there.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Let's also not forget that national polls like these don't take into account electoral votes. Obama has a pretty strong advantage. Based on RCP's electoral college map, Obama only needs to win 17 of the 115 toss up electoral votes, while Romney has to win 100 of them. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

[Sword_Of_Truth]

and when he wins the republican nomination as well, he'll be the first unanimously elected president since george washington. I hope there's room on mount rushmore the sea of tranquility for him.

ftfy

 

[Dunstan]

ftfy

Don't be silly. Only President Gingrich's face will be engraved on the Moon.

 

[Spindrift]

Don't be silly. Only President Gingrich's face will be engraved on the Moon.

<<----------- That could be him on Mars already.

 

[BenBurch]

Interesting. Fox News poll, with Obama up by seven;

 

[MattusMaximus]

Intrade has Obama 59.3% Romney 36.7% (Different issues so they do not need to add up to 100%)

The Iowa Electronic Markets have it at roughly 60%-40% in Obama's favor. That's actually better (for Obama) than this time in the 2008 election cycle, but it is a long way until November.