Greeks vote to reject incumbants, austerity

[WildCat]

So you actually have no idea what the austerity measures where or what their aim was?

I actually do. But you just said it wasn't about austerity, remember? You said it was bout getting out of the Euro, and you have yet to show any evidence at all about that.

 

[WildCat]

That's quite the broad brush you have there.

Then please enlighten me on the anti-austerity parties plans for prosperity.

 

[WildCat]

Robert Wright makes an interesting point:



The war reparations from WWI led to severe economic problems in Germany, which may have helped Hitler come to power.

I don't think that will happen again, but it could explain why support for Nazis has increased (as well as support for far-left parties).

No outside power made Greece a corrupt and broke state, they did that all by themselves. Now they have to beg more responsible countries for money, and wouldn't you know there's strings attached!

Odd people don't trust the irresponsible and corrupt Greek politicians enough to just write them a blank check, isn't it?

 

[Peephole]

We know why they rejected the measure - they think that somehow they can continue with the way things were. That's why they rejected austerity.

No, they rejected government parties because things can't continue the way they are.

 

[Neally]

That seemed to be still the case 2.5 months ago. If you claim that things are radically different now, this would be a good time to give a source or two.

And now there is a 75% chance that they will dump the Euro and default. Rock and hard place comes to mind.

 

[WildCat]

No, they rejected government parties because things can't continue the way they are.

So now how will things be? Will money fall from the sky and make everything better?

What is the economic plan of the parties elected, nazis excluded?

 

[MaGZ]

I read today that the neo nazi party called Golden Dawn (i think...) has won seats in their parliament. This isn't good.

Why not, they obviously believe in democracy.

 

[MaGZ]

Apparently so. They've only won a few seats, but Neo-Nazis? C'mon Greeks.

Some big talk from a small party:
Be afraid, exultant Greek neo-Nazis warn rivals

You can find National Socialist Parties in several countries throughout the world.

List of National Socialist parties and organizations

http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Socialist_parties_and_organizations

List of non-European National Socialist Parties

http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/List_of_non-European_National_Socialist_Parties

 

[Caper]

It's right there in the OP - "Greeks reject austerity".


Link?

WildCat. You are my favorite poster. It's hard to get one over on you.

 

[McHrozni]

AFAIK the projected 2012 Greek deficit is smaller than the interest payments that they are paying on the debt. How much of the bailout is actually to pay for services and the function of government and how much of it is simply there to enable roll-over of existing debt? It is quite hard to find information on this subject, but here is an article that attempts to get a handle on it:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/where-does-greek-bailout-money-go

The conclusion of this article is that only 19c of every euro in the bailout package goes to Greek spending, the other 71% goes to foreign and domestic holders of Greek debt, with a whopping 18% going straight back to the ECB. Of course, the political jackals of the EU, the IMF and ECB have no interest in making this common knowledge, especially among the Greek populace.

Yes, I know. However, if Greece does default - which is the only alternative to the bailouts - it will be still left penniless and unable to borrow money from abroad, and with an insolvent a domestic banking system. This is austerity in the form of hyperinflation I mentioned.

There has been a lot of scapegoating and borderline racism directed towards the Greeks, not because they've done anything unusual (rack up a lot of debt), but because the consequences of a Greek default are potentially catastrophic for the EU and for the interconnected financial institutions.

Well, a 10-13% GDP yearly deficit is unusual, and entirely their fault. The entire Europe and, to a lesser extent, the world suffer the consequences.

It should be clear that whatever Greeks decide is in their best interest, austerity is inevitable; the choice is between austerity imposed from abroad and the risks posed of self-determination. I will be interested to see just how much appears to be at stake - if the Greeks say 'no', can and will the Troika leave them to it with all the consequences?

There isn't that much the Troika can do if the Greece decides not to cooperate. If the new Greek government decides to tear up the agreements however, I expect a lot of bad to happen to Greece nonetheless. Lack of access to foreign funds, insolvent domestic banking sector and a lot of bad will among foreign investors and tourists is pretty bad for a country. Sure, they would recover eventually, but it would take many years if not decades.

McHrozni

 

[shuize]

I think the Greeks just don't want to pay any taxes at all.

Tax evasion is a source of national pride.

After finishing Michael Lewis' book, Boomerang, it appears squandering foreign capital, dodging taxes, and blaming someone else for their problems are their three favorite things in the world.

In Lewis' words:

As it turned out, what the Greeks wanted to do, once the lights went out and they were alone in the dark with a pile of borrowed money, was turn their government in to a pinata stuffed with fantastic sums and give as many citizens as possible a whack at it.

The scale of Greek tax cheating was at least as incredible as its scope: an estimated two-thirds of Greek doctors reported incomes under 12,000 euros a year -- which meant, because incomes below that amount weren't taxable, that even plastic surgeons making millions a year paid no tax at all.

 

[timhau]

And now there is a 75% chance that they will dump the Euro and default.

... or that's what some guy at Citigroup said. I really have to wonder about that percentage number -- how does he know it's not 70 or 80?

 

[timhau]

I actually do. But you just said it wasn't about austerity, remember? You said it was bout getting out of the Euro, and you have yet to show any evidence at all about that.

Never mind the Euro, according to the latest polls, a significant majority of Greeks want to eat their cake and have it too.

 

[WildCat]

Never mind the Euro, according to the latest polls, a significant majority of Greeks want to eat their cake and have it too.

Yep, they seem to think they can demand foreign money on their own terms.

 

[Neally]

... or that's what some guy at Citigroup said. I really have to wonder about that percentage number -- how does he know it's not 70 or 80?

Probably not a precise mathematical analysis, but a subjective estimate based on current events.

 

[timhau]

Probably not a precise mathematical analysis, but a subjective estimate based on current events.

Yeah, and it's a great analysis in the sense that as long has he assigns a probablity other than zero or 100%, he can never be wrong.

 

[Humes fork]

At least in late december, over 75% of Greeks want to keep the Euro. Only 16% wanted the Drachma back.

Other polls have given similar results, this is just the first one I found when googling.

I'm fairly sure the majority wants the rest of Europe to pay their bills too.

Seriously, can't the rest of the Eurozone kick Greece out now? Greece has been causing enough problems for the economies of Europe already. The postponing of the inevitable causes additional unnecessary pain. Leaving the Eurozone would be the best for them as well, as they are currently locked on a currency value not suitable for their economy. Kind of similar to our situation in the early 90s before we let our currency float freely.

 

[geni]

Yep, they seem to think they can demand foreign money on their own terms.

Well in principle until fairly recently they could. The impact of a greek default was such that blackmail was a fairly valid tactic for greece. This has however ceased to be the case.

 

[Democracy Simulator]

Well, a 10-13% GDP yearly deficit is unusual, and entirely their fault. The entire Europe and, to a lesser extent, the world suffer the consequences.

The current US deficit is 8%, in 2009 it was 10%. It just so happens that the US can borrow at ultra-low rates. The Greeks have been portrayed as lazy, irresponsible spongers. Of course, I'm not suggesting that Greeks are not responsible for their actions, just that they have been unfairly scapegoated, because the Eurozone and banks have so much to lose if Greece says 'no'. The propaganda has been that the lazy Greeks must buckle down and accept the austerity because, God forbid, the markets don't like it.

If you read the news coming from Greece, unemployment is skyrocketing (over 50% youth unemployment), there is massive capital flight and the banks are effectively insolvent, regardless. This is before more austerity measures are due to be voted in. I'm not sure that the evidence that things would be worse for Greece under the default scenario is at all clear. Repudiating several hundred billion Euros of debt does have its advantages.

This article from the Telegraph is well worth reading as it presents the case that a Greek 'no' may not be at all as bad (for the Greeks) as is popularly portrayed:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/financ...ar-brinkmanship-with-greece-is-a-lethal-game/

 

[Humes fork]

I'm not sure that the evidence that things would be worse for Greece under the default scenario is at all clear.

I don't think so either. It could however cause problems for the rest of Europe.

As for Greece being unfairly portrayed, keep in mind that their retirement age is, what, 55 or so. The corruption is also mind-boggling. Did you know that many families do not report the deaths of relatives in order to get their pension paychecks? And these people go out and protest to demand that the rest of Europe (mostly northern Europe) whose peoples work to 65 should give them money in order to make up for the differences in their unsustainable lifestyle.

Mario Monti seems to have done good for Italy, perhaps he can take on Greece next?