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Greeks vote to reject incumbants, austerity

Childlike Empress said:
I've read the same. With the 50 extra seats, Syriza should be able to form a coalition with one or two other rising parties and give the finger to the eurocrats.

Argentina is doing quite well, isn't it?
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Yes they are, they have growth rates that rival China's.

But:

As an Argentinian friend of mine remarked: 'we went so deep that the only way was up'.

The middle class has been wiped out in Argentina.
People who worked normal jobs are now stuck in a bogus economy (collecting paper and cardboard to bring to a recycling company for some change. people fight each other over cardboard in a container).

It's not a happy scenario, but i think they'll pull out.
A friend of mine is probably moving to Argentina to supervise the conversion of an old Hacienda into a luxury hotel. People are investing.

I'd also note that Argentina is agriculturally very rich. Lots of space, lots of fertile soil.
(love their wine and meat, by the way)
 
Humes fork said:
What is the Greek business elite? Greece's business climate is worse than that of Yemen and Guatemala, and only slightly better than that of Pakistan and Lebanon. Greek businesses flee to Bulgaria. There is a reason the Greek economy keeps contracting you know.
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Well, what phrase would you prefer to use to describe the 14700 entities that owe over 90% of the tax arrears (all over 150,000 euro each)? I guessed that they were businesses and individual professionals - unlikely to be employed in an average job with that kind of tax bill.
 
Virus said:
It actually proves my point that success or failure of a country isn't a matter of resources, or geography, or climate or sheep or cows or other passive determinants that the politically-correct left are told to believe.

It's the inverse of resource-poor countries prospering by taking on Western culture. A Western country becoming pathetic due to its ideas becoming more like the pathetic non-West.
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lol no, it doesn't.
 
There's an easy consensus doing the rounds* that Greece will be quitting the Euro, one way or another, before very long. It'll need a little "treaty tweaking" to prevent this being an automatic leaving of the EU too, but that's manageable it seems.

And about damn time too.

*Sources: BBC, Al-Jaz, CNN and the Intertubes :)
 
Speaking of new elections in Greece, Argentina* and Greece leaving Euro, Paul Krugman wrote about die Eurodämmerung in his blog and mentioning coming corralito and corralón.

* please, speak of what you DO know. Chinese growth rates had 50% to do with 2001 end of convertibility and incoming crisis and high inflation has nothing to do with it (10 years suffice to try new imbalances and make NEW mistakes).
 
McHrozni said:
Maybe, just maybe this will make them think, not think again but just think, about their election options next month.

McHrozni
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I see that Syriza is up in the polling; so the threat of a faster paced bank run (this has been happening since 2009) doesn't seem to be putting off the people's desire for self-determination. If I had my life savings in a bank that was stuffed to the gills with Greek debt, I'd want it out, regardless of whether Greece accepts or rejects the bailout.

Here is an article from 2011 suggesting that the pro-bailout government of the time was inspiring a bank-run:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/01/greece-panic-change

The Greek banks are kaput. I would guess that the stress tests of the European banks are not adequate in etsimating the ability of banks to withstand a Portugeuse and Spanish default, which I would guess right now, is on the cards.
 
Democracy Simulator said:
I see that Syriza is up in the polling; so the threat of a faster paced bank run (this has been happening since 2009) doesn't seem to be putting off the people's desire for self-determination. If I had my life savings in a bank that was stuffed to the gills with Greek debt, I'd want it out, regardless of whether Greece accepts or rejects the bailout.
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Yeah. Still, the story about the bank run is from Monday and hasn't impacted the polls we have yet. It's a hope, at least :)

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
Yeah. Still, the story about the bank run is from Monday and hasn't impacted the polls we have yet. It's a hope, at least :)

McHrozni
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Well, what are you hoping for? Do you really think that Greece is better with the debt and the bailout? I'm not sure that it isn't, but I'm not sure that there is much persuasive evidence either way.
 
timhau said:
Why it should be necessary for the EU to go through some contortions to keep Greece.
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There'a raft of reciprocal arrangements and rights between EU countries, for starters. Fiddling the treaty terms to keep Greece in the EU would be much easier.
 
Democracy Simulator said:
Well, what are you hoping for? Do you really think that Greece is better with the debt and the bailout? I'm not sure that it isn't, but I'm not sure that there is much persuasive evidence either way.
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Greece would swap one set of problems for another set of roughly comparable problems. I would say neither option is significantly better or significantly worse, but only if you look at Greece in isolation.

If, however, you include the broad Eurozone and world economy, it's no-contest. Greek default and exit from Eurozone would significantly hammer the latter, and effects would be felt throughout the world.

It should be painfully obvious that Greece stands a better chance of a recovery if they don't trigger another major recession and financial crisis and alienate their core customers for good measure. It's also entirely possible that Greece would destabilize as a result, with even their democracy being threatened. This is only a possibility, not a certain result, as other effects I mentioned are.

As I said earlier, they want to avoid austerity, but it's only a question of how it will come by. It may be through spending cuts or it may be through hyperinflation. Those are choices they have right now.

McHrozni
 
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McHrozni said:
Greece would swap one set of problems for another set of roughly comparable problems. I would say neither option is significantly better or significantly worse, but only if you look at Greece in isolation.

If, however, you include the broad Eurozone and world economy, it's no-contest. Greek default and exit from Eurozone would significantly hammer the latter, and effects would be felt throughout the world.

It should be painfully obvious that Greece stands a better chance of a recovery if they don't trigger another major recession and financial crisis and alienate their core customers for good measure. It's also entirely possible that Greece would destabilize as a result, with even their democracy being threatened. This is only a possibility, not a certain result, as other effects I mentioned are.

As I said earlier, they want to avoid austerity, but it's only a question of how it will come by. It may be through spending cuts or it may be through hyperinflation. Those are choices they have right now.

McHrozni
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I agree with you that another financial crisis is undesirable. However, I feel that Greece is unfairly being scapegoated as the 'trigger'. Of course, they might light the fuse, but why is there a stack of dynamite in the first place? Perhaps we have reached a critical point of indebtedness, whereby it is not possible to convince the voters that imposed austerity is better than repudiation? Why are we in a situation where the sovereign default of a small country puts at risk the entire financial system? It's a ridiculous situation and it shows that the problem is much, much more than Greece.
 
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