$955 for me, too, using your link.
When will the AE911 petition finally reach juggernaut strength of 1%?
- Thread starter newton3376
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newton3376
The Truth Movement.....still not at 1%
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Welcome back, newton3376.
Thanks Orphia
I was going to stay away.....but some of the arrogant posts I have recently read by truthers encouraged me to return and give the truthers the treatment they deserve....
They have earned it after all
A W Smith
Philosopher
Fixed that for you, There are no truthers anymore, Only trolls.Thanks Orphia
I was going to stay away.....but some of the arrogant posts I have recently read bytruthersTrolls encouraged me to return and give thetruthersTrolls the treatment they deserve....
They have earned it after all
ozeco41
Philosopher
Thanks for that A W Smith. My view also and clearly evident by the behaviour we see displayed. It's been a long time since we saw a truther interested in real discussion.
Oystein
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Update at the end of the month:
1. Architects & Engineers
mar 31: 1,678
7 signatures in 32 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 20.5 years
The exponential growth rate of 4.89% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
Mar 2012: 4.89% (feb 28 - Mar 31)
Feb 2012: 8.37% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 12.17% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 6.97% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 6.07% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 22.38% (sep 27 - oct 25)
All the time before that, growth rate 20% and more.
2. Other Supporters:
mar 31: 14,555
116 new signatures in 32 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 10.5 years
The exponential growth rate of 9.56% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
Mar 2012: 9.56% (feb 28 - mar 31))
Feb 2012: 13.65% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 11.84% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 16.47% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 30.22% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 34.28% (sep 27 - oct 25)
It is becoming ever more obvious that AE911T's appeal and success is in rapid decline, as measured by their ability to generate signatures both from the professional community and the general public.
3. Fundraiser "BFT Digital Distribution"
http://widget.chipin.com/widget/id/882604da58b0c54e
It is now reported as having ended on March 30th, having reached $4700.11 with 16 contributions. So apparently, someone masked the obvious failure by adding a single late contribution for the balance!
4. Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"
Current fundraisers attract less than $50 per day in donations. This contrasts with a recent fundraiser that had generated $10,084.61 (95 donations) over a period of ca. 37 days from dec 08 (ca.) - jan 14: That was $106.15 per contribution and $272.56 per day.
It appears that AE911T's appeal and success is in rapid decline, as measured by their ability to generate donations for specific projects: Funds raised per contributer seem to have halved, and the number of contributors is down, too.
1. Architects & Engineers
feb 28: 1671
mar 31: 1,678
7 signatures in 32 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 20.5 years
The exponential growth rate of 4.89% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
Mar 2012: 4.89% (feb 28 - Mar 31)
Feb 2012: 8.37% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 12.17% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 6.97% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 6.07% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 22.38% (sep 27 - oct 25)
All the time before that, growth rate 20% and more.
2. Other Supporters:
feb 28: 14,439
mar 31: 14,555
116 new signatures in 32 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 10.5 years
The exponential growth rate of 9.56% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
Mar 2012: 9.56% (feb 28 - mar 31))
Feb 2012: 13.65% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 11.84% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 16.47% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 30.22% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 34.28% (sep 27 - oct 25)
It is becoming ever more obvious that AE911T's appeal and success is in rapid decline, as measured by their ability to generate signatures both from the professional community and the general public.
3. Fundraiser "BFT Digital Distribution"
This is interesting: It had ended on March 24th, having raised only $879.11 of the target of $4,700 (18.7%), with 15 contributions ($58.60 per contribution, $41.86 per day). Now look at it a week later:
http://widget.chipin.com/widget/id/882604da58b0c54e
It is now reported as having ended on March 30th, having reached $4700.11 with 16 contributions. So apparently, someone masked the obvious failure by adding a single late contribution for the balance!
4. Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"
Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions ($44.32 per contribution, $34.82 per day). Started mar 03, ends apr 08. At this pace, with 8 days to go, they'll end up 61% short of their target.
Current fundraisers attract less than $50 per day in donations. This contrasts with a recent fundraiser that had generated $10,084.61 (95 donations) over a period of ca. 37 days from dec 08 (ca.) - jan 14: That was $106.15 per contribution and $272.56 per day.
It appears that AE911T's appeal and success is in rapid decline, as measured by their ability to generate donations for specific projects: Funds raised per contributer seem to have halved, and the number of contributors is down, too.
ozeco41
Philosopher
Thanks for the update Oystein.
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
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To show the steady decline of new signatures to the AE911T "petition", I have new graphics:
1. Long-term development 2007 - March 2012:
2. Short-term development October 2011 - March 2012:
Since the 10th anniversary on 9/11, the downward trend can be seen almost on a monthly scale:
The curves for linear and exponential growth don't differ very much now. There was a growth peak in October 2011, perhaps on account of increased interest caused by the 10th anniversary, but since then, no month has come close to the average level of the previous interval (may september 2011), and the most recent numbers, for March 2012, represent an all-time low.
The numbers for Other Supporters, previously relatively more stable than the professionals, is now almost declining as steeply.
3. Conclusion:
1. Long-term development 2007 - March 2012:
1.1 Architects and engineers:
We see the exponential growth rate steadily declining from the first year of AE911 until today. The exponential growth rate tells us how many new signature there are per year and per already existing member. If growth was organic or viral, i.e. fueled by members spreading the information, this growth rate should be steady.
The linear growth rate simply tells us how many new signatures there are per day. If there is an element of organic growth, that rate would increase.
It did increase - from 2007 to 2008/2009, was then steady for 1.5 years, and since a year ago, has dropped by more than half. This should worry Gage a lot!
1.2 Other Supporters:
Even here, exponential growth rate has always steadily declines. At all times, exponential growth of these non-professionals has been much higher than for the professional A&E - another warning sign that Gage's message fails to score where it should!
Linear growth rate continued to increase into early 2011, it seems, but has dropped since. The interesting part here is that these non-professionals aren't abandoning Gage at quite the pace that the professionals do! Linear growth rate is down "only" about 40% from its peak, compared to -60% for the A&E professionals
We see the exponential growth rate steadily declining from the first year of AE911 until today. The exponential growth rate tells us how many new signature there are per year and per already existing member. If growth was organic or viral, i.e. fueled by members spreading the information, this growth rate should be steady.
The linear growth rate simply tells us how many new signatures there are per day. If there is an element of organic growth, that rate would increase.
It did increase - from 2007 to 2008/2009, was then steady for 1.5 years, and since a year ago, has dropped by more than half. This should worry Gage a lot!
1.2 Other Supporters:
Even here, exponential growth rate has always steadily declines. At all times, exponential growth of these non-professionals has been much higher than for the professional A&E - another warning sign that Gage's message fails to score where it should!
Linear growth rate continued to increase into early 2011, it seems, but has dropped since. The interesting part here is that these non-professionals aren't abandoning Gage at quite the pace that the professionals do! Linear growth rate is down "only" about 40% from its peak, compared to -60% for the A&E professionals
2. Short-term development October 2011 - March 2012:
Since the 10th anniversary on 9/11, the downward trend can be seen almost on a monthly scale:
The curves for linear and exponential growth don't differ very much now. There was a growth peak in October 2011, perhaps on account of increased interest caused by the 10th anniversary, but since then, no month has come close to the average level of the previous interval (may september 2011), and the most recent numbers, for March 2012, represent an all-time low.
The numbers for Other Supporters, previously relatively more stable than the professionals, is now almost declining as steeply.
3. Conclusion:
The patient AE911Truth is dying even faster than I had anticipated.
Last edited:
Excellent work, Oystein.
cjnewson88
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Cheers Oystein.
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
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I am currently continuing a game I played a while ago: Counting Professional Engineers.
You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Michigan here:
http://www.aelslagid.state.mn.us/roster.html
Doing a "Search by License Type or Location ", selecting "Professional Engineers" as Profession and License Type and leaving all other fields blank, I currently get 38795 P.E.s in Michigan.
Of these, 7 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.018%, or 1 out of 5542. Only one is a Civil Engineers, the other five are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.
Name|Eng. Profession|Lic. No|Lic. Status|est. age
David G. Huebner |Civil|6201036077|Lapsed|ca. 50
James Charles |Geological|6201040948|Active|ca. 50
James D. Flikkema |Chemical|6201035334|Lapsed|ca. 60
Jeffrey Hoffman |Mechanical|6201053202|Active|40s
John L. Mason |Electrical|6201023233|Lapsed|70s
Stanley A. Beattie |?|6201017658|Active|70s
Wayne Henry Coste |Electrical|6201029286|Active|ca. 60
One can't fail to notice that, in Michigan as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe amone engineers, and the more qualified a MI PE is, the less likey he is to sign that crap.
(Also, I find it interesting that the signers tend to be rather old! I estimated their ages from the years of graduation, or years of experience as given in their profiles)
You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Michigan here:
http://www.aelslagid.state.mn.us/roster.html
Doing a "Search by License Type or Location ", selecting "Professional Engineers" as Profession and License Type and leaving all other fields blank, I currently get 38795 P.E.s in Michigan.
Of these, 7 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.018%, or 1 out of 5542. Only one is a Civil Engineers, the other five are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.
David G. Huebner |Civil|6201036077|Lapsed|ca. 50
James Charles |Geological|6201040948|Active|ca. 50
James D. Flikkema |Chemical|6201035334|Lapsed|ca. 60
Jeffrey Hoffman |Mechanical|6201053202|Active|40s
John L. Mason |Electrical|6201023233|Lapsed|70s
Stanley A. Beattie |?|6201017658|Active|70s
Wayne Henry Coste |Electrical|6201029286|Active|ca. 60
One can't fail to notice that, in Michigan as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe amone engineers, and the more qualified a MI PE is, the less likey he is to sign that crap.
(Also, I find it interesting that the signers tend to be rather old! I estimated their ages from the years of graduation, or years of experience as given in their profiles)
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Minnesota here:
http://www.aelslagid.state.mn.us/roster.html
It currently states that there are 12,422 P.E.s in Minnesota.
Of these, 3 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.024%, or 1 out of 4141. Only one is a Civil Engineers, the other two are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.
Name|Eng. Profession|Lic. No|Lic. Status|est. age
Brandon Johnson |Mechanical|MEC|expired|?
David J. Hajicek |Mech. + Elec.|11645|active|ca. 70
Kirk L. Pape |Civil#Land Surv.|40317|active|40s
One can't fail to notice that, in Minnesota as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
http://www.aelslagid.state.mn.us/roster.html
It currently states that there are 12,422 P.E.s in Minnesota.
Of these, 3 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.024%, or 1 out of 4141. Only one is a Civil Engineers, the other two are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.
Brandon Johnson |Mechanical|MEC|expired|?
David J. Hajicek |Mech. + Elec.|11645|active|ca. 70
Kirk L. Pape |Civil#Land Surv.|40317|active|40s
One can't fail to notice that, in Minnesota as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Idaho here:
http://ipels.idaho.gov/rostersearch.cfm
In addition, you can download a roster of all PEs here:
http://ipels.idaho.gov/rostdown.htm
This roster currently lists 14,009 licensed P.E.s in Idaho.
Of these, 4 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.029%, or 1 out of 3502. Two of these are Civil Engineers.
One more is listed at ae911t who isn't a PE yet, only an Engineering Intern (EIT).
Name|Eng. Profession|Lic. No|Lic. Status|est. age
David E. Cassel |Mechanical|P-5352|current|ca. 50
Larry D. Elliott |Electrical|P-5186|current|ca. 60
Nathan S. Lomba |Civil+Structural|P-4132|current|ca. 60
Ryan G. Van Leuven |Civil|P-8689|current|20s
One can't fail to notice that, in Idaho as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
The EIT is:
Charles Mencke|Mechanical|E-6403|current|ca. 30
http://ipels.idaho.gov/rostersearch.cfm
In addition, you can download a roster of all PEs here:
http://ipels.idaho.gov/rostdown.htm
This roster currently lists 14,009 licensed P.E.s in Idaho.
Of these, 4 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.029%, or 1 out of 3502. Two of these are Civil Engineers.
One more is listed at ae911t who isn't a PE yet, only an Engineering Intern (EIT).
David E. Cassel |Mechanical|P-5352|current|ca. 50
Larry D. Elliott |Electrical|P-5186|current|ca. 60
Nathan S. Lomba |Civil+Structural|P-4132|current|ca. 60
Ryan G. Van Leuven |Civil|P-8689|current|20s
One can't fail to notice that, in Idaho as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
The EIT is:
Charles Mencke|Mechanical|E-6403|current|ca. 30
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Iowa here:
https://eservices.iowa.gov/licensediniowa/index.php?pgname=pubsearch
If you search for names, but leave all fields blank (except country: USA), the form currently returns the information that there are 17,809 licensed P.E.s in Iowa.
Of these, 2 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.011%, or 1 out of 8905.
Name|Eng. Profession|Lic. No|Lic. Status|est. age
David L. Weimer |Electrical|14668|active|ca. 40
Kirk L. Pape (*) |Civil+Land Surv.|14073|active|40s
One can't fail to notice that, in Iowa as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
(*) I listed Pape already in my previous post on Minnesota
https://eservices.iowa.gov/licensediniowa/index.php?pgname=pubsearch
If you search for names, but leave all fields blank (except country: USA), the form currently returns the information that there are 17,809 licensed P.E.s in Iowa.
Of these, 2 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.011%, or 1 out of 8905.
David L. Weimer |Electrical|14668|active|ca. 40
Kirk L. Pape (*) |Civil+Land Surv.|14073|active|40s
One can't fail to notice that, in Iowa as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
(*) I listed Pape already in my previous post on Minnesota
Last edited:
cjnewson88
Graduate Poster
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Stunning work Oystein. You should send this info to Gage 
As much as we tweak Gage for living off contributions and what not, the specific goal above is downright austere. 11 cities in Canada for $3,200 US? On a good night, I could blow that on dinner, drinks and a few hours at the local peeler bar.
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Illinois here:
https://www.idfpr.com/licenselookup/LicenseLookup.asp
I searched for names, 26 searches for the letters a-z as last name, deducted 2% for people who are deceased, and found thus that there are currently ca. 53,140 licensed P.E.s in Illinois.
Of these, 8 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.015%, or 1 out of 6643. Only two of these are Civil Engineers, the other six are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.
One more Mec.Eng. is listed at ae911t who isn't a PE yet, only an Engineering Intern (EIT).
Name|Eng. Profession|Lic. No|Lic. Status|est. age
Brian L. Lewis |Civil|062.047612|Active|ca. 50
Christopher Hahn |Mechanical|062.057511|Active|40s
Chuck Minne |Chemical|062.024915|Inactive|60ish
Dennis M. Fischer |Civil|062.029618|not renewed|ca. 70
Fisal M. Hammouda |Aerospace|062.033437|Active|ca. 70
J Neil Jednoralski |Agricultural|062.034759|Active|60s
Lee H. Niems |Mechanical|062.009043|Inactive|ca. 70 or 90
Robert A. Kadera |Electrical|062.046385|Active|50s
One can't fail to notice that, in Illinois as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
The EIT is:
Steven P. Grage|Mechanical|061.021889|Active|ca. 50
https://www.idfpr.com/licenselookup/LicenseLookup.asp
I searched for names, 26 searches for the letters a-z as last name, deducted 2% for people who are deceased, and found thus that there are currently ca. 53,140 licensed P.E.s in Illinois.
Of these, 8 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.015%, or 1 out of 6643. Only two of these are Civil Engineers, the other six are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.
One more Mec.Eng. is listed at ae911t who isn't a PE yet, only an Engineering Intern (EIT).
Brian L. Lewis |Civil|062.047612|Active|ca. 50
Christopher Hahn |Mechanical|062.057511|Active|40s
Chuck Minne |Chemical|062.024915|Inactive|60ish
Dennis M. Fischer |Civil|062.029618|not renewed|ca. 70
Fisal M. Hammouda |Aerospace|062.033437|Active|ca. 70
J Neil Jednoralski |Agricultural|062.034759|Active|60s
Lee H. Niems |Mechanical|062.009043|Inactive|ca. 70 or 90
Robert A. Kadera |Electrical|062.046385|Active|50s
One can't fail to notice that, in Illinois as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
The EIT is:
Steven P. Grage|Mechanical|061.021889|Active|ca. 50
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
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One other thing I plan to analyse perhaps after the next couple of fundraisers is how they lower their targets and expectations from one fundraiser to the next, as they watch the previous ones miss and fail - still keep failing!
We'll probably have to wait a few months before we see Gage's IRS form 990 for FY 2011, but I'll predict that they will already have seen a stalling, or even slight decrease, of direct contributions compared to 2010, after 2010 saw a nice increase over 2009. In 2012, Gage will probably struggle to get a decent wage out of the dying operation.
I don't see them survive deep into 2013
Oystein
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I started all this over in Telltale_Tom's thread:
Gotta make a couple of corrections here:
1. There are a LOT more than 7500 PE licenses from the State of Pennsylvania. I spent some time fiddling with the search tool and found (more than) 69,000! But I estimate that about 30% of these have status that shouldn't be considered (perhaps deceased, or not yet passed; unfortunately, the returns are cryptic), so 48,300 current PE-licenses in Pennsylvania is a realistic number to go by.
2. Of these, 3 have signed Gage's petition - that's 0.006% or 1 in 16,100:
Name|Eng. branch|License #|Status
Harry B. Brown |Mechanical| PE025639E | expired James Robert Van Langen |Mechanical| PE025663E | active Michael T. DiMercurio |Mechanical|?| not found Patricia Lyn Seitz |Architectural| PE079261 | active
The great state of Pennsylvania is even less impressed with Gage's pony show
Gotta make a couple of corrections here:
1. There are a LOT more than 7500 PE licenses from the State of Pennsylvania. I spent some time fiddling with the search tool and found (more than) 69,000! But I estimate that about 30% of these have status that shouldn't be considered (perhaps deceased, or not yet passed; unfortunately, the returns are cryptic), so 48,300 current PE-licenses in Pennsylvania is a realistic number to go by.
2. Of these, 3 have signed Gage's petition - that's 0.006% or 1 in 16,100:
Harry B. Brown |Mechanical| PE025639E | expired James Robert Van Langen |Mechanical| PE025663E | active Michael T. DiMercurio |Mechanical|?| not found Patricia Lyn Seitz |Architectural| PE079261 | active
The great state of Pennsylvania is even less impressed with Gage's pony show
I'm loving these stats!