Presidential Primaries 2012

[Spindrift]

I still think that if Romney survives his own party's nomination process, he will be a formidable opponent for Obama. It's not going to be a shoo-in for Obama. I think the far right hates Obama enough that they will hold their nose and vote for Romney in droves.

With Romney running the center is in play. I think Romney is about the same right of center as Obama is left of center. Obama is going to have to fight for the center. If he thinks otherwise, he could very easily lose.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I still think that if Romney survives his own party's nomination process, he will be a formidable opponent for Obama. It's not going to be a shoo-in for Obama. I think the far right hates Obama enough that they will hold their nose and vote for Romney in droves.

We'll see. I don't think hatred of Obama is as strong a get-out-the-vote motivator--especially since many of them seem to hate Romney just about as strongly.

It could matter a lot in swing states whether or not it's raining on Election Day.

 

[Puppycow]

Although Santorum won both states, since they award delegates proportionally, he doesn't gain significant ground on Romney. The AP estimates that Santorum picked up 28 delegates, but Romney and Gingrich each picked up 20 delegates. And Romney could pick up more delegates in Hawaii and Samoa, which vote later today.

Updating with estimates from Hawaii and Samoa:

AP Delegate Tracker

Romney: 43
Santorum: 36
Gingrich: 24
Paul: 1

So, Romney actually won the day. He won all 9 delegates from Samoa and most of the Hawaiian delegates, BTW.

The cumulative totals:
Romney: 495
Santorum: 252
Gingrich: 131
Paul: 48

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

So, Romney actually won the day.

And while I agree with the other candidates that Romney probably can't beat Obama, I find it a particularly weak argument for them to make since none of them can beat Romney. . . even in the primary. (And each of the non-Romney candidates is likely to do much better within GOP voters than in a general election.)

 

[Puppycow]

Republicans are having a lot of trouble with their caucuses:

Contention, confusion mar Missouri caucuses

TOWN AND COUNTRY, Mo. (AP) – Contention and confusion marred various Republican caucuses in Missouri on Saturday, and one meeting was abruptly shut down, as impassioned supporters of Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul battled for an edge in the state's complicated delegate selection process.

A caucus at a school near St. Louis where roughly 2,500 Republicans had gathered was adjourned before a vote could take place because it got so rowdy that extra police were summoned and two people were arrested for trespassing. Elsewhere, political tensions and divisions led to recounts not only on votes over which candidates should be supported, but even which people should preside over the caucuses.
. . .
Before even the opening prayer, police were called in to the caucus in St. Charles County to remove a video camera set up by a Paul supporter against the local rules, said Eugene Dokes, the country Republican chairman. Things went downhill from there. Caucus participants "started to become verbally aggressive with event organizers and police officers," said St. Peters Police Officer Melissa Doss.
. . .
"Today's events in St. Charles were unfortunate, and the meeting was adjourned to protect the safety of all participants," said state Republican Party Chairman David Cole.

The state party said it hoped to try again to hold a caucus in St. Charles County at a later date.

2012: Year Of The Caucus Meltdown

 

[Puppycow]

Updating with estimates from Hawaii and Samoa:

AP Delegate Tracker

Romney: 43
Santorum: 36
Gingrich: 24
Paul: 1

So, Romney actually won the day. He won all 9 delegates from Samoa and most of the Hawaiian delegates, BTW.

The cumulative totals:
Romney: 495
Santorum: 252
Gingrich: 131
Paul: 48

Romney picks up another 22 delegates in Puerto Rico:
The cumulative totals:
Romney: 521
Santorum: 253
Gingrich: 136
Paul: 50

Out of 962 delegates committed so far, Romney has won 54% of them, which means he's on track to have over the 1,144 required to win the nomination in the first round of voting.

 

[Alan]

It looks like Fred Karger got more votes in Puerto Rico than Ron Paul.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/ron-paul-topped-ran-fred-karger-puerto-rican-153210979.html

 

[Puppycow]

It looks like Fred Karger got more votes in Puerto Rico than Ron Paul.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/ron-paul-topped-ran-fred-karger-puerto-rican-153210979.html

And Buddy Roemer beat both of 'em and Newt Gingrich too, even though he's no longer running for the Republican nomination.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Funny, I hear both Romney and Santorum supporters saying that Illinois is a must-win for Romney. (Must win for Romney or that if Santorum wins Illinois, he'll get the nomination.) The delegate counts just don't support that position, though. If Santorum wins Illinois, he'd still need to pull off a miracle to win enough delegates to get the nomination.

I'm curious though, since I know we've got a few conservative Illinoisians in the forum, are they voting in the primary, and if so, how are they making their choice?

Early coverage of the primary said turnout seemed low. (I think that cuts in Romney's favor.)

 

[Puppycow]

Well they've called it for Romney, and it looks like a comfortable margin too. They haven't projected the delegates yet though.

 

[Puppycow]

Romney picks up another 22 delegates in Puerto Rico:
The cumulative totals:
Romney: 521
Santorum: 253
Gingrich: 136
Paul: 50

Out of 962 delegates committed so far, Romney has won 54% of them, which means he's on track to have over the 1,144 required to win the nomination in the first round of voting.

Romney picks up at least another 40 (out of 69; the numbers will probably change) delegates in Illinois:
The cumulative totals:
Romney: 560
Santorum: 253
Gingrich: 135
Paul: 50

Romney now has 56% of 1000 delegates projected so far.

After one more primary in (Louisiana on the 24th), April looks like a good month for Romney. The Texas primary has been pushed back to May 29th, leaving 7 blue states and DC to vote in April, New York being the biggest one (one of those blue states is Santorum's home state of PA though).

May is more friendly the anti-Romneys with 7 red states including Texas and only 1 blue state. But by May, Romney will probably have a very commanding lead already built up.

 

[hgc]

I'm putting N. Gingrich on a watch list.

He came in 3rd in Louisiana. On the one hand, the candidate has said, without equivocation, that he is going all the way to Tampa. But, candidates always say this, even when they know damn well they're going to drop out sooner than later. And, on the other hand, the pundits say that the candidate needs the smell of victory in Louisiana in order to remain viable. But, pundits are no better at prognostication than dowsers are at divining.

What says the chorus? Are there any readers here who have voted for N. Gingrich, or plan?

 

[Spindrift]

I'm putting N. Gingrich on a watch list.

He came in 3rd in Louisiana. On the one hand, the candidate has said, without equivocation, that he is going all the way to Tampa. But, candidates always say this, even when they know damn well they're going to drop out sooner than later. And, on the other hand, the pundits say that the candidate needs the smell of victory in Louisiana in order to remain viable. But, pundits are no better at prognostication than dowsers are at divining.

What says the chorus? Are there any readers here who have voted for N. Gingrich, or plan?

I'm not sure that the JREF Forum membership would be a good barometer for Gringrich's support amongst the GOP.

 

[hgc]

I'm not sure that the JREF Forum membership would be a good barometer for Gringrich's support amongst the GOP.

I know, and especially if we're counting only people who happen to open this 3 year old thread when it pops onto the front page.

 

[Tricky]

Here's a summary from PolitFact on the remaining candidates:

Candidate | True or Mostly True | Half True | False, Mostly False or PoF | Pants on Fire | Number of Rulings Romney| 33.88% |26.45% |39.67% |10.74%|121 Santorum| 20.93% |27.91% |51.16% |9.30%|43 Paul| 41.67% |22.22% |36.11% |8.33%|36 Gingrich| 19.67% |21.31% |59.02% |16.39%|61 Obama| 46.59% |24.72% |28.69% |1.42%|352

PoF = 'pants on fire'

Not a big surprise. Gingrich is the biggest liar, followed by Santorum. Obama is the most honest, followed by Ron Paul.
Gingrich is by far the most likely to tell a whopper, while Obama is overwhelmingly better at eschewing fish stories.

 

[blobru]

I think Pants on Fire might also reflect Gingrich's philandering.

 

[hgc]

Ach, N. Gingrich never makes it easy, does he? He's scaling back his campaign to the point it can reasonably be labeled as "not competing."

New Gingrich is cutting back his campaign schedule, will lay off about a third of his cash-strapped campaign’s full-time staff, and has replaced his manager as part of what aides are calling a "big-choice convention" strategy,...

From Politico

Big-choice convention strategy. How about joke-bag candidate strategy?

 

[hgc]

OK, enough's enough. N. Gingrich has not "dropped out," but he is definitely no longer running for president. By the rules of this thread, that'll get you struck. (I would add "but fast," but clearly I've given him plenty of slack in this regard.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...keep-running/2012/04/07/gIQAgraT2S_story.html

I called for an N. Gingrich candidacy back in 2007/8, and was disappointed. But this time around, he showed up to play, and turned out to be more than I had ever hoped for. I'll miss ya, Newtie -- keep on keepin' on.

That leaves R. Santorum and R. Paul (le père) left to do battle. Where is R. Paul lately, anyway?

Oh, and one little housekeeping task -- R. Terry has been struck from the Dem primary contest. Did he ever get a Superbowl commercial?

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News
W. "M." Romney •
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News •
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty •
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père) •
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China •
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News •
M. Bachmann •
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson (free the buds!) •
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain •
D. Trump
S. Angle
C. "B." Roemer •
R. Paul (le fils)
F. Karger •
R. Perry •
R. Moore •
T. McCotter •
D. Duke (All new! Frosty beard!) •

Dem
B. Obama •
R. Terry •

Libertarian
G. Johnson •

Reform
C. "B." Roemer •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump (Hair today, gone tomorrow)
H. Schultz (the first barista president?)

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •

 

[Tatyana]

Isn't it pretty much certain Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican candidate for president?

 

[hgc]

Isn't it pretty much certain Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican candidate for president?

Yes. Which makes one wonder -- why does R. Santorum continue? Answer: There's still $$ in the campaign bank account, and he seems to be having fun. As for R. Paul (le père), he's on a mission from ... Mars.