Patrick1000
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Book recommendation for you Anders.......
Book recommendation for you Anders.......Lots has been written on the subject Anders, and perhaps you are all the more familiar with this stuff than me with regard to what is out there literature wise, but with respect to the Saudi question specifically, if you have never looked at this book;
TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons
it really is worth a read......
Some aspects of the subject are covered in perhaps a bit more detail than most of us would care to get into, but that said, one can skip around a bit to avoid getting bored and still pick up a lot, get flat out scared a lot too.
As a bicyclist, not a car driver, peak oil has always made intuitive sense to me. Not that I do not use and waste plenty of fossil fuel myself, surfing trips to Hawaii, Bali, and so forth, but seeing the cars all lined up struggling as they do grunting down the road every day, even before I caught wind of the subject thanks to that seminal Scientific American article by Colin Campbell back in something like '96, I thought, "this can't go on, just can't, it is inevitable, the oil drying up, slowly but surely".
What is interesting for me is that many complain about gas at $4 a gallon, $5 a gallon. We probably pay twice that given the "investment" we make in the carrier groups/battle groups that maintain/protect/safeguard the shipping/oil lanes in a sense, the wars we fight for oil, at least to some degree, the wars are about oil, and so forth. But even at $20 a gallon, $100 a gallon, $200 a gallon, the stuff is a steal, literally so.
What, the stuff took how many hundreds of millions of years to make and we are gonna' burn through it in 200 years? What if there was 300 years worth of oil left, which there ain't, but say there was, even then it would be absurd burning through it like this.
My sense is the turn has been made. As they say, it is one of those things we'll only recognize in retrospect, "IN OUR REAR VIEW MIRROR". 15 years from now we may look back and say, "yeah, there, 2010-ish is when we hit the 50% mark", or perhaps 2014 will be the year, but it seems close.
Take a look at the Simmons book Anders. I think it is worth the read. Very cheap, $ 0.01 used on ADOTCOM.
The oil production history charts for peak oil follow the same decline curve for different countries. And even when looking at short time spans this can be seen, such as: http://stevemaley.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/shortfall.png
And the above graph is definitely a part of an overall peak oil curve: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/23/saupload_reuters_cantarell_through_june_20093.jpg
So how can Saudi Arabia have such a flat oil production history? See for example: http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=sa&product=oil&graph=production
One possible explanation is that Saudi Arabia has been conserving its oil reserves. But as Matt Simmons said - that Saudi Arabia has been lying big time about its oil production and reserves - fits better with its flat oil production history. Saudi Arabia's oil production has probably already peaked and it's only fake statistics that is keeping an illusionary facade up.
Book recommendation for you Anders.......Lots has been written on the subject Anders, and perhaps you are all the more familiar with this stuff than me with regard to what is out there literature wise, but with respect to the Saudi question specifically, if you have never looked at this book;
TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons
it really is worth a read......
Some aspects of the subject are covered in perhaps a bit more detail than most of us would care to get into, but that said, one can skip around a bit to avoid getting bored and still pick up a lot, get flat out scared a lot too.
As a bicyclist, not a car driver, peak oil has always made intuitive sense to me. Not that I do not use and waste plenty of fossil fuel myself, surfing trips to Hawaii, Bali, and so forth, but seeing the cars all lined up struggling as they do grunting down the road every day, even before I caught wind of the subject thanks to that seminal Scientific American article by Colin Campbell back in something like '96, I thought, "this can't go on, just can't, it is inevitable, the oil drying up, slowly but surely".
What is interesting for me is that many complain about gas at $4 a gallon, $5 a gallon. We probably pay twice that given the "investment" we make in the carrier groups/battle groups that maintain/protect/safeguard the shipping/oil lanes in a sense, the wars we fight for oil, at least to some degree, the wars are about oil, and so forth. But even at $20 a gallon, $100 a gallon, $200 a gallon, the stuff is a steal, literally so.
What, the stuff took how many hundreds of millions of years to make and we are gonna' burn through it in 200 years? What if there was 300 years worth of oil left, which there ain't, but say there was, even then it would be absurd burning through it like this.
My sense is the turn has been made. As they say, it is one of those things we'll only recognize in retrospect, "IN OUR REAR VIEW MIRROR". 15 years from now we may look back and say, "yeah, there, 2010-ish is when we hit the 50% mark", or perhaps 2014 will be the year, but it seems close.
Take a look at the Simmons book Anders. I think it is worth the read. Very cheap, $ 0.01 used on ADOTCOM.
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