Sword_Of_Truth
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Found your problem for you.
We don't want "informed" debate. We want reckless paranoid speculation and ignorant self-absorbed ego-stroking.
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Has Global Peak Oil been reached?
- Thread starter Anders Lindman
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Found your problem for you.
We don't want "informed" debate. We want reckless paranoid speculation and ignorant self-absorbed ego-stroking.
Anders Lindman
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They at least admit this much:
"Rising transport demand and upstream costs reconfirm the end of cheap oil
...
The cost of bringing oil to market rises as oil companies are forced to turn to more difficult and costly sources to replace lost capacity and meet rising demand. Production of conventional crude oil – the largest single component of oil supply – remains at current levels before declining slightly to around 68 mb/d by 2035." (page 4) -- http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/weo2011sum.pdf
That's peak conventional oil at least. If unconventional oil will make up for the loss of conventional oil is not clear (although I haven't studied the document in detail and that's only the executive summary).
Unconventional oil is:
"According to the International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report unconventional oil includes the following sources:
- Oil shales
- Oil sands-based synthetic crudes and derivative products
- Coal-based liquid supplies
- Biomass-based liquid supplies
- liquids arising from chemical processing of natural gas[1]
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Anders Lindman
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Oh, no. It's March 22 already in Iran: http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=246
That means that my prediction failed (unless something has happened and the news stories about it are delayed). Well, anyway, a military incident between Iran and the U.S. can happen later on. That's not much of a prediction though since many people are talking about such possible conflict.
That means that my prediction failed (unless something has happened and the news stories about it are delayed). Well, anyway, a military incident between Iran and the U.S. can happen later on. That's not much of a prediction though since many people are talking about such possible conflict.
Anders Lindman
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The conspiracy is concentrated in the top mainstream media sources. Other media sources sometimes write about peak oil, such as this recent article:
"The Peak Oil Crisis: Parsing the Bakken
There is a lot of talk recently that "tight oil" as found in North Dakota's Bakken and other shales in the Southwest will save America from stagnant global oil production ...
The aspect of this "energy independence" story that the optimists continue to ignore is that, while oil production from shale may be climbing, depletion of our other sources of oil continues apace. Alaskan oil production is falling rapidly as is shallow offshore production in the Gulf and at least some of the offshore platforms are not turning out to be anywhere near as productive as planned." -- Full article: http://www.fcnp.com/commentary/nati...crisis-parsing-the-bakken-.html#ixzz1psus0qpL
"The Peak Oil Crisis: Parsing the Bakken
There is a lot of talk recently that "tight oil" as found in North Dakota's Bakken and other shales in the Southwest will save America from stagnant global oil production ...
The aspect of this "energy independence" story that the optimists continue to ignore is that, while oil production from shale may be climbing, depletion of our other sources of oil continues apace. Alaskan oil production is falling rapidly as is shallow offshore production in the Gulf and at least some of the offshore platforms are not turning out to be anywhere near as productive as planned." -- Full article: http://www.fcnp.com/commentary/nati...crisis-parsing-the-bakken-.html#ixzz1psus0qpL
Anders Lindman
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"Global oil supply outages hit 1.2m bpd in March
Global oil supply outages are running at more than a million barrels a day, a Reuters survey has found, helping provide justification for the United States and Britain should they release strategic reserves in a bid to cut oil prices.
Civil unrest, adverse weather and technical glitches disrupted 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of global oil output in March on the 90 million bpd world market, according to a Reuters calculation from information provided by companies, government agencies and traders.
While disruptions of supply to the world oil market are commonplace, it is rare and perhaps unprecedented that such a large volume of oil is offline at any one time outside a single major disruption." -- Full story: http://www.tradearabia.com/news/CM_214659.html
Are "Civil unrest, adverse weather and technical glitches" really the cause of the supply outages? Or is the real cause global peak oil?
Global oil supply outages are running at more than a million barrels a day, a Reuters survey has found, helping provide justification for the United States and Britain should they release strategic reserves in a bid to cut oil prices.
Civil unrest, adverse weather and technical glitches disrupted 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of global oil output in March on the 90 million bpd world market, according to a Reuters calculation from information provided by companies, government agencies and traders.
While disruptions of supply to the world oil market are commonplace, it is rare and perhaps unprecedented that such a large volume of oil is offline at any one time outside a single major disruption." -- Full story: http://www.tradearabia.com/news/CM_214659.html
Are "Civil unrest, adverse weather and technical glitches" really the cause of the supply outages? Or is the real cause global peak oil?
Anders Lindman
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Is it really a coincidence that the EU countries having financial problems, Greece, Spain and Italy, are the biggest importers of oil from Iran at a time when the EU will put sanctions on the Iranian oil? Seems like a planned 'coincidence' to me.
RT - Iran oil ban to recoil on EU: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTa6wf7QQt4
RT - Iran oil ban to recoil on EU: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTa6wf7QQt4
Anders Lindman
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"Iran sanctions bring unintended, unwanted results
... "The sanctions are a real Catch-22 for the global community" says Hayat Alvi, associate professor of Middle Eastern studies at the U.S. Naval War College. "Given global interdependence, many fragile economies and their valuable recoveries will be hard hit...We're already starting to see some of the effects."
Asian powers such as China and India have already broadly signalled opposition to tighter sanctions, although Western diplomats say they may yet be persuaded. Despite promises by long-time Iranian foe Saudi Arabia to it would make up lost Iranian supply, there is widespread scepticism in the oil market that it genuinely has the spare capacity." -- Full story: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/iran-sanctions-consequences-idUSL6E8EN4H020120323
Unintended results? Unintended? Really?
Catch 22? 
... "The sanctions are a real Catch-22 for the global community" says Hayat Alvi, associate professor of Middle Eastern studies at the U.S. Naval War College. "Given global interdependence, many fragile economies and their valuable recoveries will be hard hit...We're already starting to see some of the effects."
Asian powers such as China and India have already broadly signalled opposition to tighter sanctions, although Western diplomats say they may yet be persuaded. Despite promises by long-time Iranian foe Saudi Arabia to it would make up lost Iranian supply, there is widespread scepticism in the oil market that it genuinely has the spare capacity." -- Full story: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/iran-sanctions-consequences-idUSL6E8EN4H020120323
Unintended results? Unintended? Really?
Catch 22? Anders Lindman
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Some say peak oil is irrelevant because improvements in technology can keep the production up.
"Please note that I’m not trying to state, as no economist is, that we do not live on a finite Earth. ... The argument is, rather, that while there are indeed such hard limits to availability they are so far away from our current situation that they’re irrelevant ..." -- http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/03/24/we-dont-consume-resources-we-create-them/
In the past I thought that the flat global oil production since around 2005 has been because new and improved technologies have been able to keep the production up so that instead of peak oil we now have plateau oil that can go on for perhaps several decades. But recently I have started to suspect that even the global oil statistics can have been manipulated! And that although new technologies can make huge improvements in oil production, they can't make up for the loss of production caused by depletion of oil fields around the world.
"Please note that I’m not trying to state, as no economist is, that we do not live on a finite Earth. ... The argument is, rather, that while there are indeed such hard limits to availability they are so far away from our current situation that they’re irrelevant ..." -- http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/03/24/we-dont-consume-resources-we-create-them/
In the past I thought that the flat global oil production since around 2005 has been because new and improved technologies have been able to keep the production up so that instead of peak oil we now have plateau oil that can go on for perhaps several decades. But recently I have started to suspect that even the global oil statistics can have been manipulated! And that although new technologies can make huge improvements in oil production, they can't make up for the loss of production caused by depletion of oil fields around the world.
Anders Lindman
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One important reason for why to get military control over oil-producing countries like Iraq and Libya is to stunt their economic growth. Why? Because otherwise the internal economic growth in those countries would very quickly, within a few years, given a peak oil scenario, have catastrophic consequences for the amount of oil exported from those countries.
This means that Iran may soon be attacked to prevent economic growth in that country rather than to cause a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz (which would only make a temporarily excuse for a lower global oil supply). And also Saudi Arabia may be next, with a war that destroys that country's economy and capacity for economic growth other than for the oil exporting industry. Venezuela and Brazil are other possible candidates for wars (or some severe internal conflicts or economic catastrophes).
This means that Iran may soon be attacked to prevent economic growth in that country rather than to cause a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz (which would only make a temporarily excuse for a lower global oil supply). And also Saudi Arabia may be next, with a war that destroys that country's economy and capacity for economic growth other than for the oil exporting industry. Venezuela and Brazil are other possible candidates for wars (or some severe internal conflicts or economic catastrophes).
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Anders Lindman
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It's important to uphold the illusion that there is still plenty of oil in the world. Otherwise the whole global economy can come to a halt. This is easy to do. We can simply introduce other conspiracy theories that oppose the peak oil theory, such as secret oil cartels manipulating the oil price and/or oil production on purpose being stunted to drive up the price of oil.