Not as mod:
The points which are suggestive to me of AK and RS's involvement are:
1. AK implicating a provably innocent man. To my mind, she was clearly trying to get the spotlight off herself, not "cracking" under police interrogation. She named Lumumba almost immediately, only an hour or so into her questioning.
Actually she didn't name him almost immediately, that's not true. Amanda and Raffaele reported the crime about 1 PM on November 2nd, 2007. From then until ~6:00 AM November 6th she'd spend 53 of those 89 or so hours with the police, either answering questions at the cottage, Raffaele's or at the police station in interviews, or awaiting her turn. She spent a total of 40 or so of those hours in the
Questura itself. Of that time at least 14 of those hours were in one of those rooms, probably more like ~18. The night of the Fifth Raffaele and Amanda walked in at 10:15, Raffaele went immediately to be interviewed, Amanda went to the waiting area and spoke to Filomena.
At a little after 10:30 (I think the call was placed at 10:29 and it took four minutes or so) Amanda would hang up with Filomena saying the police wanted to talk to her, and we'd find out that would be because Raffaele had 'dropped' her alibi, and she'd go into that little room for the last time. Raffaele's statement in which he says they went out to the square that night and parted there and she went to
Le Chic and he returned hope ~9 PM would be timed and dated 10:40 November 5th, suggesting Ficarra and Napoleoni approached Amanda to ensure she didn't leave as soon as they heard that, which would make sense as it implies Amanda was lying about her alibi the whole week.
Her first statement was signed at 1:45 AM November Sixth, which is about three hours from the time she was approached and they started with her. She did say in court that they didn't start being harsh with her until a while into her interview, and being as the interpreter didn't get there until ~12:30 that's probably not unlikely, but even if the final phase only took an hour, there was plenty of prologue which was already starting to take its toll. Amanda was exhausted, at that point it had been about 85 hours since the murder and she'd been with them about 49 of those hours. Saying that the last hour was the only one that counted is kinda like pretending that the last floor is what does a person in when they fall from a hundred story building. That might be where the dramatic splat takes place, but the other 99 floors certainly contributed and the mess wouldn't be as big--or have occurred at at all--if it wasn't for the other ninety-nine!
However even if that
wasn't so, what makes you think that Amanda trying to 'get the spotlight off herself' was why those statements were signed? That's what the police said
after the fact, at the time they said she 'buckled and gave a version of the facts we knew to be correct.' On the other hand, in Amanda's note
written to police contemporaneously, Amanda says she was told they had 'hard evidence' she was at the scene, that Raffaele said she went out that night and told her to lie (not quite on the latter) and that they threatened and hit her and she was terribly confused about everything she signed and what happened that night and no longer was sure what was the truth.
So there's two versions of that night's events, what the police said and what Amanda said. Her version
doesn't change and is compatible with what can happen when an exhausted person is lied to and browbeaten into submission under police interrogation. Theirs on the other hand doesn't fit with their actions that night at all, and doesn't fit with their actions or statements directly afterward. If Amanda was trying to throw suspicion off herself, it obviously didn't work being as it got her arrested, but even if she did, why on earth did they ever
believe it if they had no other reason to think Patrick involved like they'd pretend afterward in court? Why didn't it occur to them that Amanda
might be trying to mislead them, and isn't it pretty
obvious who she might be trying to protect if that were the case? They have Raffaele cooling his heels in another room and they
never even ask him about the murder? Why was that? Why did they let Amanda off with just 'not being sure' if Raffaele was there in the statements? Why didn't they ask Raffaele?
Why instead of following up on this 'new' information did they completely forget about Raffaele, whose shameless public cuddling of Amanda would become the talk of three nations, when it was pretty much obvious there would have to be a man involved for the rape part, they must have guessed she didn't do that part. Who was the
obvious one for her to be protecting, as it's clear they didn't believe her about anything else in the 'confession' why did they accept Patrick's inclusion without doubt? My guess is cops in Italy are aware that sometimes criminals will lie, thus if she
really accused Patrick out of the blue and they had no reason to suspect him otherwise, wouldn't at least one of them wonder if she might be trying to distract them from her and Raffaele
who they specifically called in to interview that night?
After the second statement at 5:45 AM on November Sixth the cops would go out and arrest Patrick and interrogate him all day long, then pack the three of them up in a ten car sirens-blazing lights-flashing police convoy and parade through the streets of Perugia like they caught a mafia don and announce 'case closed.' Does that fit with what the cops would have done if
all they had on Patrick was some offbeat foreign exchange student's delirious ramblings? They refused to believe anything Patrick said, they even found a 'witness' to his bar being closed when it wasn't, and yet they still arrested him for murder, paraded them through the streets and announced 'case closed?'
So even if you think Amanda was trying to 'throw them off' by sending them after the one person (outside herself and Raffaele) who she would have reason to believe had an alibi for the night, (being as the texts they exchanged about him being at work and her not having to was the main subject of the interrogation) why did they fall for it so easily and completely 'forget' that she might have been lying about that when they thought she was lying about everything else?
Also, if you believe Amanda was trying to finger Patrick, then in reality she must have been trying to protect Rudy. Why'd she go and do that when if she was involved she must have deliberately left all Rudy's evidence at the cottage and instead of cleaning up (at least the
obvious stuff not in the murder room) she instead led police right to it? Why'd she go and do that, pointing out the evidence he left and not cleaning it up but taking the chance of bringing major suspicion on herself by accusing someone else?
If she wanted to throw them off the track she didn't have to tell them she was there and get herself arrested too! That makes a liar out of her for saying differently the rest of the week! She didn't have to try to pretend she
saw someone she would
know wasn't there and the police couldn't find evidence of that she had every reason to think was working and would almost certainly have someone who could alibi him. She could have said she suspected him, or he told her something, or she saw something (afterward) that caused her to think he was involved, but giving them an easily falsifiable story is about the stupidest thing she could do, and considering they wouldn't believe her about anything else, why would a guilty Amanda have any expectation they'd believe her about this?
While at the outset it might sound plausible that Amanda might have accused someone else to throw someone off her trail, it just doesn't fit at all with the situation at the time. It does however fit with the cops initially thinking Amanda was complicit with Patrick in the murder, Raffaele was simply someone who helped her later, and them putting the screws to her all night long to get a 'confirmation' of their theory. Then afterward realizing they could 'use it' as more 'evidence' of Amanda being guilty even if Patrick wasn't. Otherwise they'd have to admit their bizarre theory that Mignini just made up with no evidence to support it wasn't true, and they'd made a massive mistake arresting them all off those barely coherent statements and parading around town as well as posturing for the international media.
It was easier (and safer!) to pretend it was all Amanda's fault, and as long as it was, they could still be right.
2. RS knowing that nothing had been taken from the room even though, by his account, he hadn't been in there, even being unable to kick down the door.
I suspect you're conflating a couple different contentions here. Raffaele didn't say anything about stuff being taken from
Meredith's room, he told the
Carabinieri when he called that 'nothing had been taken' and was probably referring to the fact he saw Filomena's camera and computer in plain view. He might also have been trying to suggest that their reason for calling wasn't just the evidence they saw of a break-in, but that someone in the household wasn't answering the phone, they'd found blood, and her door was locked and they were concerned.
The guilty interpretation suggests that this shows 'foreknowledge.' However that comes with the assumption that Raffaele would be involved in staging a break-in, not taking anything, and then tell the police that despite the fact it would turn out something had highly likely been taken: Meredith's rent money, ~400 Euros if I recall correctly, which is probably what Rudy used to get to Germany.
The other contention you may have juxtaposed here is that Amanda said in conversations after the murder regarding things about what happened even though she didn't look into the murder room. That's true, however she was at the scene where everyone was talking about it and she picked up some things that were true, such as Meredith having her throat cut, and some things that were not, such as her body being in the closet with the foot sticking out.
3. Guede naming them after his conviction. Yes, I know he was probably angling for a reduced sentence. He is, however, the only person who was undisputedly there.
He also didn't name them either. After the murder talking on the Skype with his friend, unbeknownst to him the police were monitoring it, he said that Amanda wasn't involved, and suggested at first Raffaele wasn't, then allowed that was possible. After a few months in prison he claimed that the guy he originally described that didn't really match Raffaele might have been him, and that he heard someone that might have been Amanda.
After Amanda and Raffaele's original verdict where the defense position was to present the more likely scenario of Rudy doing it alone, a criminal by the name of Alessi who is notorious in Italy for killing a toddler in a botched kidnapping attempt, wrote a note to the court saying that he and a few others had heard Guede admit in prison to them that Raffaele and Amanda weren't there. Shortly thereafter another note, supposedly written and signed by Guede, said that Alessi was a liar and a monster, Rudy had nothing to do with it than he said, and everyone should blame Raffaele and Amanda as the Italian courts did. He didn't exactly say they were there and gave no details. The handwriting on the note doesn't look much of anything like the handwriting on his diary, and the words used don't suggest a petty criminal of dubious education. You can compare and contrast them if you like, I or someone else can dig up the scans which have been posted in the thread.
At the appeal Rudy's 'testimony' more or less amounted to sitting there while that letter was read in court. He didn't seem too enthused about the whole thing. My guess is he didn't write it, his lawyer or Mignini did as a 'response' to Alessi's contention, which would also become testimony at the appeal. It's of little value outside that context, as it amounted to little more than sticking to his story of not being the murderer but someone else doing it, and using Raffaele and Amanda as the 'someone else' without actually saying they did it, but agreeing with the court's verdict, a court process which--thanks to Mignini and Maresca--has been very kind to him.