Mitt Romney’s easy victory in Nevada’s Republican presidential caucuses might, in the long run, be less important than the fact that a surprising number of Republicans who could have participated Saturday chose to stay home.
Republicans’ disappointing turnout foreshadows difficulty energizing GOP voters in Nevada, a key swing state in November’s general election.
Turnout was unlikely to match 2008, when 44,000 Republicans participated in Nevada’s caucuses. Complete figures were not released by the state party as of 10 p.m. Saturday, an indication of a lackluster showing.
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To illustrate how important voter enthusiasm is, quickly answer this question: Who won the 2008 Nevada Democratic caucus, when 116,000, many of them newly registered voters, caucused?
No, it wasn’t President Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton won.
Still, 10 months later, Obama, fueled by the party members’ energy and organization, carried Nevada by 12 percentage points over Republican John McCain.
The lesson: Caucus turnout signaled the excitement of the Democratic base and helped perpetuate it through the general election, as the party tapped that energy to organize itself.
Obama’s easy victory in 2008 was credited to the so-called “enthusiasm gap” — Democratic voters were excited for a change after eight years under Republican President George W. Bush. Republicans, meanwhile, were lukewarm on their nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain.