Is Mittens now unstoppable?

[BenBurch]

As an outsider I think yes Romney will get the nomination but no he won't beat Obama. Partly because he seems to have the personality of a cardboard cutout but partly because I suspect he'll be stuck with a dead weight VP candidate ala Palin to keep the Tea Party wing of the party happy.

Romney might instead pick some well-regarded Republican only slightly to his right and attempt to appeal to the independents. I really don't think the Tea Baggers are going to stay home or vote for Roseanne Barr.

 

[Madalch]

Is it really professional for you to call people lunatics as a moderator?

If Bachman or Santorum posted here, than it would be in poor form for a mod to call them such to their faces. As it is, we're just pointing out a fact.

 

[daredelvis]

It has been said that Romney is becoming inevitable like death and taxes, or in Romney's case, just death.

I would like one of the GOP faithful on the list to tell me which GOP candidate I should vote for, the guy that wants to cut Romney's taxes by 40%, or the guy that wants to cut them 100%?

Daredelvis

 

[MattusMaximus]

Unless he screws up again, I don't see how he can be stopped.

Romney will get stopped pretty thoroughly in November

 

[MattusMaximus]

I agree that Romney is the ticket, but won't win. The interesting thing to watch is how much harm Gingrich will actually do to Romney's chances of election with the current attack ads.

Not just the ads themselves, but all the fodder Gingrich is providing for the DNC in the general election is pretty juicy, too.

 

[cambion]

Romney will get stopped pretty thoroughly in November

I think that depends on how both campaigns are run. There's a lot of blind rage about the economy out there that Romney could tap into if he plays his cards right. Republicans are good at that.

But I do still think Obama will win. A blank milquetoast like Romney isn't really defeat-the-presidential-incumbent material.

 

[SezMe]

Romney might instead pick some well-regarded Republican only slightly to his right and attempt to appeal to the independents.

I would suggest DeMint. He's a fair-haired boy of the far right yet has largely avoided the loony label and he would carry an important state. Just remember, you heard it here first.

 

[SezMe]

I think it will be a relatively low voter turnout among Republicans. The far right will probably just stay home.

My memory (and thus a wholly crappy resource) is that turnout in the primaries so far has been below 2008 turnout. If that is right, your hunch is probably on the money.

 

[cambion]

I think Demint would make sense too, though it's tough to say which direction he's going to pander. You're exactly right about him, he has teabagger credentials, but his demeanor is a lot more moderate and likeable than the other choices from that field.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I would suggest DeMint. He's a fair-haired boy of the far right yet has largely avoided the loony label and he would carry an important state. Just remember, you heard it here first.

!@%$##@ beat me to it.

(I think you're right)

 

[MattusMaximus]

My memory (and thus a wholly crappy resource) is that turnout in the primaries so far has been below 2008 turnout. If that is right, your hunch is probably on the money.

I heard this, I think, on NPR recently, though I cannot be sure of that. Does anyone have a definitive source on this claim? If it's true, I think the Republicans are in deep trouble for the presidential race.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I think Demint would make sense too, though it's tough to say which direction he's going to pander. You're exactly right about him, he has teabagger credentials, but his demeanor is a lot more moderate and likeable than the other choices from that field.

The fact that DeMint has Tea Party cred at all is not going to be helpful in the general election. With the TP less popular than Muslims, it is going to be a liability.

 

[Ladewig]

The UK bookmakers are heavily leaning towards M. Romney for the nomination

Bet $12 on M. Romney and win $1
Bet $12 on N. Gingrich and win $144

That's quite a spread

 

[SezMe]

The fact that DeMint has Tea Party cred at all is not going to be helpful in the general election. With the TP less popular than Muslims, it is going to be a liability.

Both parties are going to struggle with turnout this year. The far right don't give two hoots about Romney (witness the parade of folks who tried out for his role) while the far left is really fed up with Obama. People not out on the far ends of the spectrum probably recognize that there is not a whole lot of difference between the two candidates so the candidates themselves will have little effect on turnout.

Thus, both candidates have to reinvigorate their fringes. DeMint does that for Romney without giving moderates the heaves like a Santorum would. Biden doesn't do jack **** for Obama in the turnout department.

Regarding turnout, Romney's biggest fear has to be what Paul does. If he (Paul) either goes third party or enthusiastically endorses Johnson, there could be a significant drain by the libertarian types. Paging Ralph Nadar.

 

[TimCallahan]

The fact that DeMint has Tea Party cred at all is not going to be helpful in the general election. With the TP less popular than Muslims, it is going to be a liability.

Let's see if this is true:

According to Wikipedia:

DeMint is ranked by The National Journal as one of the most conservative members of the Senate.[9] Salon.com has called him "perhaps the most conservative member of the Senate."

Hia positions are:

opposes spending increases of the federal government; opposed federal bailouts for banks and automobile corporations.

supports a balanced-budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

opposes abortion, including in cases of rape and incest. He approves of abortion only when the mother's life is in danger.

supports school prayer and has introduced legislation that would allow schools to display banners such as one stating "God Bless America".[14]

opposed NATO intervention into Kosovo.

supported U.S. invasion of Iraq.

supported de facto president Roberto Micheletti, and met with him in Honduras. a meeting that was opposed by US President Barack Obama's administration. The State Department officially viewed ousted president Manuel Zelaya as the legitimately elected president

opposed Obama's health reform legislation; voted against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in December 2009, and he voted against the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010.

He also supported the candidacy of Sen. Rand Paul. Yep, tea-bagger for sure. I hope Romney picks him as veep - unless, of course, Sarah Palin is available.

 

[Brainster]

I'd take that action. I'll go further and say Barack gets 400+ EV.

I'd take that bet in a heartbeat. Obama is going to lose EVs from his 365 in 2008; that's easy. For starters, he loses something like 9 EVs even if he wins all the states he did in 2008, due to redistricting caused by the 2010 census. He's not going to win North Carolina or Indiana, states where he barely pulled out squeakers last time around. The only state he lost narrowly was Missouri. So somehow he has to keep NC, IN and FL, all three of which he won by only a percentage point or two, and turn Missouri into a win, as well as (say) Montana. And that still does not get him to 400. He'd have to start winning states where he lost by 10 percentage points or so in 2008 in order to get to that level.

 

[Corsair 115]

I still see an "R" after Bachmann, Brewer and Palin when I google them.

Pffft! An 'R' is just a 'D' with legs!

 

[SezMe]

For starters, he loses something like 9 EVs even if he wins all the states he did in 2008, due to redistricting caused by the 2010 census.

I can't quibble with all the rest of the arithmetic but how did you come up with 9 lost to redistricting?

 

[Brainster]

I can't quibble with all the rest of the arithmetic but how did you come up with 9 lost to redistricting?

Actually it is 6 EVs; I was going from memory, never a good thing for someone who qualifies for a senior discount.

 

[fishbob]

We'll never elect a Mormon as POTUS, at least not this go-round. I may have been scared off solid political bets but I'd put small money on this.

I don't know about that.
If the Mormon in question wasn't a smarmy upper-crust twit, he might just have a chance.