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Newt wins South Carolina

Puppycow

Penultimate Amazing
Puppycow
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ABC, NBC and Fox immediately called it as soon as the polls closed, so that probably means he won by a comfortable margin.
 
Wonder how he did among women whose husbands left them.

Maybe it's just a rumor but I heard that Gingrich might quit the presidency halfway through if the White House gets cancer.
 
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Puppycow said:
I had thought it was closed, but a Google search says it's open. Maybe crossover democrats had something to do with it?
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Registered Republicans are the only ones who voted today. The Dems have their own primary in a few weeks.
 
I like this observation by Dan Savage:

Voters Accept Adultery, but Not Honesty

My favorite moment in Thursday night's G.O.P. debate: Newt Gingrich angrily denying his second ex-wife’s account of the end of their marriage — “Let me be quite clear: The story is false!” — and the socially conservative South Carolinians in the hall rewarding the former speaker of the House with sustained applause.

Let me be quite clear: Newt Gingrich wasn't denying that he had a six-year-long adulterous relationship with a Congressional staffer, a woman 20 years his junior, an affair that he conducted while overseeing the impeachment of Bill Clinton after his affair with a White House intern. Gingrich’s affair with a Congressional staffer is a long-acknowledged fact. That former Congressional staffer was sitting in the audience last night: her name is Callista, she’s the third Mrs. Gingrich, and she is — according to every profile written about her — a “devout Catholic.” (I was raised by devout Catholics. Devout Catholics are friends of mine. Devout Catholics do not have adulterous relationships with married men. Just sayin’.)

All Gingrich was denying with that “false!” was the allegation that he had asked his second ex-wife for an open marriage.

Newt Gingrich wants us to know that he did not ask his second ex-wife for an open marriage. An honest open relationship was never on the table. Newt and Callista’s six-year-long adulterous relationship was grounded in deceit and betrayal from the start, and Newt and Callista never wavered from the path of deceit and betrayal. Newt Gingrich was making an implicit promise to socially conservative voters: He did not ask his most recent ex-wife for an open marriage, and he will not ask any of his future ex-wives for an open marriage.

The lesson in Gingrich’s angry denial and the applause that greeted it: An honest open relationship is more scandalous, and more politically damaging, than a dishonest adulterous relationship. An honest, mutually consensual nonmonogamous marriage — which is not what Newt was proposing (you can’t negotiate an honest open marriage with your spouse six years into an affair) — is newer and somehow more threatening than the “traditional” cheating Gingrich engaged in.
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Good news for Dems.

Infighting will bring more dirt to the surface for a longer period.
 
What this result demonstrates, in my opinion, is how important last-minute impressions are. The American electorate has such a poor long term memory that recent events weigh many times more heavily than what a politician does throughout his or her career. All of Newt's baggage was forgotten with that last minute blast at the Evil Media. That effect is even more pronounced in primaries, where people are often "making statements" rather than voting for the person they expect to serve in the office. But the effect of last-minute surges is still important in Federal elections too. That is why there is always a blitz of negative ads right before an election.
 
Now, if Santorum were to do the politically expedient thing and drop out and support Gingrich, well, we might have a new favourite. Anyone know how likely that is to happen? Santorum can bag himself a role in any future Gingrich administration, and the not-Romneys can coalesce around one candidate......

Makes sense but does sense matter in these elections?
 
I think that Romney is still the favorite. He'll do better in the West and Northeast. Plus Gingrich isn't even on the ballot in Virginia and write-ins aren't allowed.
 
Puppycow said:
I think that Romney is still the favorite. He'll do better in the West and Northeast. Plus Gingrich isn't even on the ballot in Virginia and write-ins aren't allowed.
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I'm sure you're right. While these early primaries are "momentum-building", they are no means the "voice of the people".

Florida is going to be interesting though. More than any primary so far, it is a cross-section of the nation and a toss-up state in the national election. Also, Jeb Bush is an important player here. It is no secret that there is bad blood between the Bushes and Newt, whom GHW Bush feels torpedoed his re-election with his antics.

South Florida is highly populated by transplanted Yankees and extreme anti-communist Cubans, while the north is true redneck southerners. Sprinkled among them are highly activist environmentalists and highly unethical land developers. Oh yes. It will be interesting.
 
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Tricky said:
South Florida is highly populated by transplanted Yankees and extreme anti-communist Cubans, while the north is true redneck southerners. Sprinkled among them are highly activist environmentalists and highly unethical land developers. Oh yes. It will be interesting.
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And gators. Don't they vote?
 
My take on this is that Gingrich has the skills and the appeal of Dick Cheney.

That is to say he is popular within the same sections of the party and he knows exactly how to push the buttons of those sections of the party. They love that stuff and compared with someone like Romney who looks increasingly light-weight and unable to hold his own in a debate, Gingrich looks like a tough experienced professional.

I personally don't want Gingrich to win at all but it would be very foolish of the Democrats to not take him seriously. The question just seems to me are there enough voters in America whose eyes light up when they hear "Radical, leftist, socialist, Obamacare, American exceptionalism, Reagan, Israel, community organizer, teleprompter, bow to the Saudis, anti-religious bigotry, food stamp president." etc... etc...

As long as he keeps churning out those cliches he'll get cliched crowds turning out in big numbers to chant, "U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!"
 
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