Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

TimCallahan said:
I'll predict that all these polls will change after a few primaries. I see Paul taking the Iowa Caucus, and Romney winning the New Hampshire primary. Whether or not Newt will plummet like Perry did is hard to say. It could be that, going into the Republican convention we'll see a three-way battle between Romney, Pal and Gingrich.
Click to expand...

:popcorn1
 
I think what we are seeing here is rather like speed dating; GOP voters get attracted to a candidate, start paying attention to that candidate, hear what he has to say and learn about his past, and then suddenly the other candidates look better, and they move on.
 
That's different, he was running against people that were REALLY BAD.
 
And the polls they are a-changin'. As of this moment, Gingrich is still plummeting, Paul is still gaining and Bachmann thankfully, has slid back down behind Perry:

Gingrich 27.6%
Romney 24.6
Paul 12.4
Perry 6.6
Bachmann 6.4
Santorum 3.8
Huntsman 2.0
undecided 16.6

I find BenBurch's comment on speed dating quite insightful.
 
TimCallahan said:
And the polls they are a-changin'. As of this moment, Gingrich is still plummeting, Paul is still gaining and Bachmann thankfully, has slid back down behind Perry:

Gingrich 27.6%
Romney 24.6
Paul 12.4
Perry 6.6
Bachmann 6.4
Santorum 3.8
Huntsman 2.0
undecided 16.6

I find BenBurch's comment on speed dating quite insightful.
Click to expand...

So maybe just maybe it may be Ron Paul's turn. He may even win Iowa. If that happens, Ron Paul is going to find out what happens when the media DOES pay attention to you. And I'm sure his fellow Republicans will unleash some great attack ads.
 
Spindrift said:
So maybe just maybe it may be Ron Paul's turn. He may even win Iowa. If that happens, Ron Paul is going to find out what happens when the media DOES pay attention to you. And I'm sure his fellow Republicans will unleash some great attack ads.
Click to expand...

They can attack his ideas, but personally he has no barnacles I know of.

Issues-based and voting-record-based attack ads are always fair game.
 
BenBurch said:
They can attack his ideas, but personally he has no barnacles I know of.

Issues-based and voting-record-based attack ads are always fair game.
Click to expand...


Everyone's got a skeleton in the closet. Or at least, if not a complete skeleton, a few bones, which an enterprising individual can turn into a good facsimile of a skeleton.
 
Spindrift said:
So maybe just maybe it may be Ron Paul's turn. He may even win Iowa. If that happens, Ron Paul is going to find out what happens when the media DOES pay attention to you. And I'm sure his fellow Republicans will unleash some great attack ads.
Click to expand...

Paul’s fellow Republicans are in a dilemma. If they attack him unfairly it might lead him to go third party.
 
I decided to take one last look at my usual site and found the following changes:

Previously / Today

Gingrich 27.6% -------- 28.0
Romney 24.6 ----------- 24.2
Paul 12.4 --------------- 12.4
Perry 6.6 --------------- 6.4
Bachmann 6.4 ---------- 6.4
Santorum 3.8 ----------- 3.8
Huntsman 2.0 ----------- 1.8
undecided 16.6 ---------- 19.0

This isn't a whole lot of change. Mainly, it looks as if Newt has stopped some of the hemorrhaging. Of course, I paul wins the Iowa caucus, that will be important. One word of caution, however, is that in 2008 Mike Huckabee also won the Iowa caucus -- and went from there into oblivion.
 
Last edited:
TimCallahan said:
I decided to take one last look at my usual site and found the following changes:
Click to expand...

Looking at the trend graph there, it looks a lot like, Romney is steady. Perry pops up and drops. Cain pops up and drops. Now Gingrich has popped up... and looks like he's on the way down. Granted, he has the peak ratings so far, but Perry had a much bigger lead.

As far as Paul's ratings go, don't they go around by the bus-load to polling spots? His followers are of a particularly persistent sort.
 
TubbaBlubba said:
Looking at the trend graph there, it looks a lot like, Romney is steady. Perry pops up and drops. Cain pops up and drops. Now Gingrich has popped up... and looks like he's on the way down. Granted, he has the peak ratings so far, but Perry had a much bigger lead.

As far as Paul's ratings go, don't they go around by the bus-load to polling spots? His followers are of a particularly persistent sort.
Click to expand...

Good point. Today the RCP Average is:

Gingrich 27.8
Romney 24.4
Paul 12.6
Perry 6.6
Bachmann 6.4
Santorum 3.6
Huntsman 1.8
undecided (by implication)

So, Romney is making modest gains, while Gingrich continues to falter. My question would be, given the rather luke-warm support Republicans have to date given Romney, will they support him as a nominee? Considering that Libertarian and Tea Party sentiments - expressed in support for Paul, Perry, Bachmann and Santorum - add up presently to 29.2% of those polled, will these voters express their disaffection for Romney by forming a third party, or will they reluctantly vote for him?
 
Maybe I'm cynical, but I fear that when considering an attack ad, its likely influence is given far more priority than its accuracy.
 
TimCallahan said:
Considering that Libertarian and Tea Party sentiments - expressed in support for Paul, Perry, Bachmann and Santorum - add up presently to 29.2% of those polled, will these voters express their disaffection for Romney by forming a third party, or will they reluctantly vote for him?
Click to expand...

Best-case scenario for America is that they mostly vote Libertarian.
 
Merry Christmas. Since today is 12/25/11, the Iowa caucus, taking place on 1/3/12, is only a bit over a week away. We should see a lot of change in the polls then. So, I won't be posting any of the poll results until after the third.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom