Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

The Central Scrutinizer said:
I think this was his strategy all along. Then when he accidentaly was thrust into the lead, he wasn't ready for it.
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A bit of "The Producers" problem. By running as longshot and failing he would have come out ahead, but by running and becoming a contender all his dirty laundry came out.

Success was his greatest failure. ;)
 
Foolmewunz said:
Well, I don't think he can win in NH, but he can take the Iowa Caucuses (as opposed to Caucasus - them ain't in Iowa,.... yet). So in the early round you have Iowa for Newt, NH for Romney, South Carolina for Newt. I think there's more to this battle than meets the eye. Yes, the money's still on Romney, but can the money pull it off? I'm thinking "yes", but it's not a loud and forceful "YES!!", more like a "yes,... well, sure, I guess...".
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It seems the Iowa Prediction Market agrees with you. Newt has a helluva lot of momentum (his trend line is going up fast) and Romney is flat or slowly tilting down... it's going to be interesting. Especially if Cain drops out - who will he endorse, if anyone?
 
The Central Scrutinizer said:
I think this was his strategy all along. Then when he accidentaly was thrust into the lead, he wasn't ready for it.
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I'm with Scrut on this one. I always had the sense that Cain's approach to this whole thing was very similar to when Alan Keyes ran for the U.S. Senate seat in Illinois back in 2004. Keyes was obviously not being serious in his run, because he just kept throwing out huge chunks of red meat to the extreme right-wing social conservatives of the GOP, even during the general election. The capper was when he publicly stated that "Jesus would vote for me over Obama."

Keyes lost by a stunning 70%-30% margin (or something to that effect), and - not surprisingly - within a few months of going down to a memorable electoral defeat, he came out with a new book. A book which sold like hotcakes, thanks in large part to his heightened public profile via the election and the throngs of slavering religious conservatives who lapped up his nutty diatribes like they were manna from heaven.

Sooner or later you'd think the GOP would get wise to clowns like these and keep them off the stage :rolleyes:
 
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MattusMaximus said:
It seems the Iowa Prediction Market agrees with you. Newt has a helluva lot of momentum (his trend line is going up fast) and Romney is flat or slowly tilting down... it's going to be interesting. Especially if Cain drops out - who will he endorse, if anyone?
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The thing with Cain dropping out is that he probably makes NH closer, but Mitt still wins it,... but he hands SC to Newt.

Anyone got a link to a schedule of all the primaries and caucuses? All I see is RCP and they show Iowa, NH, SC. Aren't there other states in there between some of those? Mitt's got to pick up more than NH or all the "big mo" shifts to Newt.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Anyone got a link to a schedule of all the primaries and caucuses?
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Give this a try, Foolmewunz.

I agree, Mittens has got to put some wins on the board other than NH or else the big money/party machinery is gonna hold their noses - and everything else - and switch to the Newtster.
 
DJW said:
I'm not a partisan. You can't say the same. Kerry is no more a man than Bush #43. They're both f ups. Furthermore, Kerry is NO patriot. He's a sniveling gigolo. He has shown time and again how little he cares for the soldiers of this country. Sorry for the dander, but Kerry is an ass, and so is Edwards. Don't tell me you didn't see that before we knew the truth.

My timeline is just fine, and you're still a partisan flack.

and ETA: Cain is still a goner.
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Really? I am very certain that we heard absolutely nothing about Edwards having an affair in 2004 ( when did he actually start that affair, anyways?). I also remember we only heard about it in 2008, and it was after it was apparent that Edwards wasn't going to win the Democratic nomination.
You have anything to the contrary?
 
MattusMaximus said:
Keyes lost by a stunning 70%-30% margin (or something to that effect), and - not surprisingly - within a few months of going down to a memorable electoral defeat, he came out with a new book. A book which sold like hotcakes, thanks in large part to his heightened public profile via the election and the throngs of slavering religious conservatives who lapped up his nutty diatribes like they were manna from heaven.
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Cain may have shot himself in the foot with a bazooka on that count.

Who is going to want to buy his book now? The Bible-thumpers? Entrepreneurs who want to learn the habits of a winner? Companies looking to motivate their people by offering up a great role-model? Unthinking right-wing nut jobs who have the money to make it look as though a right-wing author will always out-sell a lefty? The obnoxious co-worker who buys books by the case to hand out to his friends who need to be "exposed to the realities of life?"

Somehow, I do not think he is going to enjoy the kind of publishing success that coulter or the Rushblob enjoy.
 
leftysergeant said:
Cain may have shot himself in the foot with a bazooka on that count.

Who is going to want to buy his book now? The Bible-thumpers? Entrepreneurs who want to learn the habits of a winner? Companies looking to motivate their people by offering up a great role-model? Unthinking right-wing nut jobs who have the money to make it look as though a right-wing author will always out-sell a lefty? The obnoxious co-worker who buys books by the case to hand out to his friends who need to be "exposed to the realities of life?"

Somehow, I do not think he is going to enjoy the kind of publishing success that coulter or the Rushblob enjoy.
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Surprisingly, we have come to another situation where I am more cynical than you are.

Of course those people will buy his book. Why do you think these people's actions will match their self-professed values? They might hide the book from their friends and cow-orkers, but they love reading about people who claim to be right wing. There is only one exception: the unforgivable sin, in their minds, is homosexuality. Senator "Wide-stance" Craig is not going to be selling any books.

I'll grant that Mr. Cain isn't going to break any sales records and I love the previous mention of the "Producers effect." But in the end he will make money.
 
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Ladewig said:
Surprisingly, we have come to another situation where I am more cynical than you are.

Of course those people will buy his book. Why do you think these people's actions will match their self-professed values? They might hide the book from their friends and cow-orkers, but they love reading about people who claim to be right wing. There is only one exception: the unforgivable sin, in their minds, is homosexuality. Senator "Wide-stance" Craig is not going to be selling any books.

I'll grant that Mr. Cain isn't going to break any sales records and I love the previous mention of the "Producers effect." But in the end he will make money.
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There will be lot of buyers for his book on how the left wing media sabotaged a black man's run for the presidency.
 
You have to admit, Cain is right about one thing:

Cain, who is dropping in Republican presidential horserace polls, urged his audience to "know the facts" and "stay informed because ... stupid people are running America."
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Foolmewunz said:
The thing with Cain dropping out is that he probably makes NH closer, but Mitt still wins it,... but he hands SC to Newt.

Anyone got a link to a schedule of all the primaries and caucuses? All I see is RCP and they show Iowa, NH, SC. Aren't there other states in there between some of those? Mitt's got to pick up more than NH or all the "big mo" shifts to Newt.
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Yup, that's pretty much what happened in 2008 when Obama had a surprise win in Iowa. Before then, he was considered second fiddle, then all the momentum shifted to him and it was a real race.
 
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