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Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Yeah I know, but your point was that Vecchiotti's h-index is below 1 and not that Novelli's is significantly higher than hers. :rolleyes:

Anyway, to me this intellectual pissing contest is utterly irrelevant. I had a couple of professors at the university who were brilliant on their field but hardly ever published anything.

Vecchiotti's credibility does not depend on the "h-index"...

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Osterwelle

Vecchiotti's credibility depends on several factors, including her being fit or not fit to the post she occupies. Because one of the questions is whether she is there because of her own merits, or because she owes favours to a number of people.
Yes there are professors who are brilliant even if they never published anything. Vecchiotti however published her work in a book under the direction of Tagliabracci. Vecchiotti also published a number of articles enrolled by the same team who worked with Tagliabracci and Pascali; part of her participation to scientific debate/community consists in taking part to a number of meetings organized by Pascali and by the Catholic Unversity of Rome.
Vecchiotti and Pascali authored together a report on a high profile case, which was very controversial and, at the time it exonerated the killer of Alberica Filo della Torre. A couple of years later, the Ris found the murderer's DNA on the same items, and meanwhile the suspect confessed. The same thing happened in the Elisa Claps case, and Pascali is currently under investigation for false report. There are other cases like these: the people who belied Pascali and Vecchiotti are Patrizia Stefanoni and the Ris team made of collegues of Luciano Garofano.
I make clear again that we are not talking about her being brilliant or competent, but foremost about her being credible, meaning her being partial or impartial.
 
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But did he say he wanted the same quality of work that Stefanoni did IN THIS CASE?

What did Novelli think of Stefanoni's lying and improper record keeping?

Nothing. Giving false testimony in an expert report's case is a specific charge defined as stating the false in an expert's report. This was done only by Vecchiotti, not by Stefanoni. What you call her "lying" was never part of her report, it never become a datum in Micheli's decision nor in her report, it was corrected by herself and the data she submitted were always correct.
 
It's nearer the truth to say that you have a different set of facts based on your conclusion. A couple of weeks ago you posted a long list of "reasons" for your confidence in Amanda and Raff's guilt; they were all either long-discredited or had no evidentiary value for their involvement, or both.

One of the reasons you gave was that the pro-innocence side (allegedly) have no explanation for the isolation of the bathroom footprint, if it is to be attributed to Guede; it didn't seem to occur to you that the same objection would apply regardless of who it was attributed to (and that the explanation has been given already in this forum: the killer removed his shoe(s) to rinse blood from the leg of his trousers, and momentarily placed his foot on the bathmat)
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Yes, the latter dynamic that you describe is utterly illogic.
The isolation of the bathmat print is only explained if the person who made it is not Rudy.
Only a cleanup is a plausible explanation for the isolated prints on the stained bathmat.
Only a murderer who had been barefoot for quite a time - not just momentarily - would explain the complete soaking of the foot. A person who has shoes does not get the sole of his soaked with blood.
Removing his trousers and rinsing them in the bidet or sink would also leave amounts of Guede's DNA, and require touching of several items in the bathmat. Rising trousers without removing them would produce at least some diluted blood drops on the floor.
Walking back to Mredith's room after this operation would produce at least some drop or print on the floor.
All this is just inconsistent wth the physical scenario, that shows a most simple dynamic of the person just walking out straight in one direction weraing his shoes, and leaving no other track/trace except that of these movement.
All othr traces and stains were produced by a different dynamic and by someone else, there is nothng that relates them to Guede logically or physically.

At about the same time, you promised to give an explanation of why the break-in (ruled not to have been staged by Hellmann) should be regarded as having been staged - we are still waiting. Your thinking is conclusion-driven from top to bottom: at every point you have an interpretation of the facts (or even a version of the "facts") tailored to back up the insupportable conduct of the investigation, and the utterly compromised evidence presented by the prosecution.

People here ask too many question, they complain I don't answer, at the same time they complain I write too much.
My thought is based on physical and logical details at the very bottom level, at the first stage of observation.
 
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HOW can they be TRUE and JUST when they have all LIED and manipulated. It astonishes me that you can say this with a strait face. These people are deceitful scumbags that put innocent people in jail for 4 years and further devastated a grieving family. I wish you would wake up to that.

Because they did not manipulate and not lie, they fought for justice and revealed the truth on this as well as on other cases, investigated and indicted two people whom I consider guilty not innocent: the suspects are two liars guilty of murder in my opinion, and Knox was also found guilty of calunnia and condemned to pay trial expenses. The Kercher family has their own experts and consusltants and they were convincede by themselves that Knox and Sollecito were responsible.
 
I haven't seen anything to suggest an acquittal at first stage followed by a conviction at second stage would be exceptional, and I can't really see any reason it should be less common than an acquittal following a conviction. I'd guess a confirmation of the first verdict is the most common outcome, but that a reversal in either direction isn't unusual.

I got a different impression, that a conviction at a the Trial of the First Instance and then an acquittal at the Trial of the Second Instance was not unusual at all, but the opposite was in fact rather unusual, perhaps even exceptional for murder cases. I'd be delighted to get firmer information on this, and it just re-occurred to me reading this post you speak Italian! Could you find out for us? One thing that bugged the hell out of me this whole debate was the percentage of Trials of the First instance that resulted in acquittals or adjustments in the Trial of the Second Instance. I've seen figures from 33% to 60-some percent with the high number coming from our own Machiavelli, and I'm not entirely sure I understood exactly what he was referring to in all instances.

The first two stages of the trial could certainly be seen as part of the same whole, as you say; or all three stages could be seen as part of the same whole; or each stage could be seen individually. Any way you slice it, the fact the prosecution can appeal counts as double jeopardy, as the U.S. understands it.

That's true, which is why I dropped the contention that simply prosecutor appeals are a determinant of double-jeopardy. :)


Sure, I understand you weren't arguing that the Italian system itself violates the double jeopardy clause. But my point was that - taking your argument to its logical conclusion, and applying U.S. standards of double jeopardy to the Italian system - it is in violation of that clause. Hence the problem with strictly applying U.S. concepts of double jeopardy to a foreign legal system.

My position was more nuanced, in that it allowed for the normal course of the process, but that the Supreme Court of Cassation striking down the acquittal and remanding it for another trial, the basis of the discussion as I understand it, would be an event unforeseen and thus uncovered by treaty and judgment would have to be based on other considerations, at which time questions of double-jeopardy would arise.

Yes, actually I agree with you that the grounds for denying extradition are quite limited, certainly much more so than I’d thought before learning more about it. What made this hit home for me was reading about the Turkish case: the court basically acknowledged that the evidence may well not prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, but noted that since an extradition hearing isn’t a trial, the court only needed to find sufficient evidence to show probable cause. Hence despite a possible lack of evidence, and despite a legal process which clearly violates U.S. standards of double jeopardy, it allowed extradition.

I am unsure just how comparable the Italian Court System is to the Turkish one of the Seventies, other than they were partners in 'crime' at the ECHR for violations during that period. :p

In other words I don't know how to 'translate' that case, I don't know what it means that the General Board struck down the acquittals before the 'Three Judge Panels,' and found him guilty, was that a system where one is (was?) considered guilty until proven innocent?

At any rate do you consider that case an absolute indication of what could or could not be decided by a court in the hypothetical extradition case?

I do not.

So I guess my conviction that extradition wouldn’t go ahead in the Knox case really has no legal grounds, it’s only based on my perhaps cynical belief that a reason would be found to prevent it happening – even if that were quibbling over spelling errors!

I maintain they could refuse extradition on the basis of the circumstances being such that it would impose double-jeopardy on Amanda and potentially Raffaele as well. I don't think overturning convictions and acquittals are necessarily comparable, nor do I think the exceptions you've found apply definitively, though they might be argued by the Italian legates.



As I understand it, there are various options open to the Supreme Court, one of which is overturning the verdict without returning the case to a previous court for re-trial. For example, in this case the Supreme Court acquitted a defendant who'd been convicted in the first two stages because "il fatto non sussiste".

At this point I don't think it matters either way though, since I think the 're-trial' aspect is a bit of a red herring.

I can't read Italian, so the best I could do was try to puzzle it out through google translate. I got the impression somebody sold this cyclist drugs and then was prosecuted for murder and perhaps (?) other cyclists that also died as a result of the drug-taking cyclist having an accident? Did I get that right? If I understand that all correctly, the Supreme Court simply ruled that wasn't what the law read, which would be its purview. It can't have convictions of acts which aren't actually violations of the law employed to convict them.

I am again curious as to where you get from this the idea that the Supreme Court could void an acquittal like that, and then convict Amanda and Raffaele? That doesn't make sense to me, the Supreme Court can certainly rule on what is actually law, and (if I've understood that case correctly) must by that virtue, strike down convictions in violations of it. It might actually be forced to do this in the calunnia case if a Motivation cannot be written that accounts for all the vagaries of the law, including that she must know Patrick to be innocent.

However where does the idea that the Supreme Court of Cassation could convict Amanda and Raffaele come from?


However, look at the wording of the extradition treaty: the clause only applies when the person has been convicted, acquitted or pardoned by the Requested Party - that is, in this case, the United States. The article doesn't apply to double jeopardy in Italy, if Italy is the party requesting extradition.

That means that there is no double-sovereign exception to the principle of double-jeopardy.

Apparently the current US-Canada treaty is the same, only providing protection from double jeopardy in the territory of the requested state. Hence in Canada v Schmidt, another extradition case, the judge ruled that the double jeopardy article in the treaty didn’t apply:

That is a good quote! It seems with the above you have crafted an argument that double-jeopardy protections don't even exist in extradition, unless it is to sort out possible 'turf wars' on jurisdiction. It seems to me that's the position the Canadian Supreme Court has taken, which is all well and good for Canada, but not really relevant to the United States, or to the rest of the world who considers it a potential bar on extradition. I think this following quote is more relevant to this specific case though:

Schmidt vs Canada said:
But the courts may intervene if the executive's decision to surrender a fugitive would, in the particular circumstances of a case, violate the principles of fundamental justice. This is, however, a jurisdiction that must be exercised with caution. The discretion to make the decision to surrender is primarily that of the executive and this is an area where it is likely to be far better informed than the courts, and where the courts must be extremely circumspect so as to avoid interfering unduly in decisions that involve the good faith and honour of this country in its relations with other states. In a word, judicial intervention must be limited to cases of real substance. Finally, barring obvious or urgent circumstances, the courts should not ordinarily intervene before the executive has made an order of surrender.

We are dealing with a hypothetical situation where the Supreme Court of Cassation strikes down the Hellmann court verdict, and in your view can then declare Amanda and Raffaele guilty, or in the other view remand the case back to another court for another trial, upon which time either extradition is requested, or they are tried in absentia and then extradition demanded so they serve their sentence in Italy. That would require a fundamental injustice to occur, Raffaele and Amanda's acquittal which was based on a rational view of the evidence to be scuttled in favor of whichever technicality won the day with the Supreme Court of Cassation.

Therefore perhaps the reason why the courts didn't bar extradition in cases where drug smugglers had their conviction dismissed on a technicality that was reversed, or this case where it amounted to claiming the difference between kidnapping and child-stealing was not distinctive enough, was because it didn't meet the bar of 'real substance?'

My suspicion is that the sequence of events that must occur for that acquittal to be struck down would meet that bar, and that a gross injustice would occur for Amanda and Raffaele to have their acquittal voided or reversed. Since the principal violated in this travesty, were it to occur, would be that they must stand trial again for an act they were already acquitted for, my guess is in refusing the extradition request they would invoke the fundamental right of double-jeopardy protection and insist that the Hellmann Court rendered a final judgment which could not be struck down by whatever technicalities Mignini managed to get past that august body.

As another example, the UK-US extradition treaty provides for double jeopardy protection in the requested state and in a third state, but not in the requesting state.

I get the impression you are looking for exceptions rather than the rule. :)

Article 11 AALCO said:
Extradition shall be refused if the offence in respect of which extradition is sought is under investigation in the requested State or the person sought to be extradited has already been tried and discharged or punished or is still under trial in the requested State for the offence for which extradition is sought.

Commentary
The laws and/or treaties of most of the member countries of this Committee contain provisions providing against double jeopardy for the same act. There is, for instance, a provision in the Criminal Procedure Code of Iraq prohibiting double jeopardy and treaties concluded by Iraq with other countries, such as the Iraqi-Egyptian Treaty of l931, contain provisions to this effect. The principle of "Non Bis In Idem" is also observed by the United Arab Republic and the agreement signed by Egypt and Iraq in 1931 stipulates that the requested person may not be surrendered if he has been previously tried for the offence for which his surrender is requested, so that punishment may not be repeated for the same offence.

The extradition agreement concluded between the countries of the League of Arab States contains a stipulation to this effect. The principle of "Non Bis In Idem" is also recognised by Japan and Indonesia. Though all the Delegations at the Colombo Session were in agreement with the principle of providing against double jeopardy for the same act, there was disagreement with regard to the precise wording of the provisions to be included. At the Tokyo Session this Article was, however, unanimously adopted.

Another reference to it's prominence as a legal principal and to extradition treaties is here on page 3.

Prisonerwatch page 3 said:
2.1 Double jeopardy
Many contain a provision that deals with the issue of ‘double jeopardy’ (also known as ne bis in idem). This principle essentially means that a person should not be tried or punished twice for the same offence. This means that extradition for the purpose of prosecution can or should be refused if the subject has already been tried or punished for the offence (whether in the requesting State, requested State or a third country). The rule applies whether or not the subject was found guilty or acquitted in the earlier trial.
It is important to be aware that domestic law on double jeopardy varies between countries. There may be exceptions allowing for the re-trial of a person that has been acquitted (for example if new evidence is discovered), or an opportunity for the prosecution to appeal an acquittal to a higher Court.

Here's another one indicating that the various applications of the double-jeopardy prohibition on extradition is something that is still in the works and was when this treaty was signed, the 'mandatory' nature of Clause Six being suggestive of that. However Clause Six does not restrict the objections on this principle to simply the 'requested party,' that's actually a move forward to apply it more universally:

University of Texas Austin said:
The European Commission on Human Rights has in recent decisions indicated that Art. 6(3) of the Convention, which guarantees that a person charged with a criminal offence has certain minimum procedural rights, might under certain circumstances prevent a double conviction in the same Treaty state. [xiv] The foregoing thus justifies the conclusion that the principle of ne bis in idem is a general rule of public international law in the sense of Art. 25 of the Basic Law, which prevents the renewed conviction of a person sought for the same offence in the same state.
Emphasis retained and highlighted


So after reading clause 6 more carefully (and assuming I'm reading it correctly! It's a little ambiguous, but the quote you posted seemed to clarify it), I don't think it would apply to this case at all. I guess the reasoning is that a double jeopardy defence in the 'requesting state' should be raised at trial, not in an extradition hearing.


That was the opinion of the Canadian Supreme Court in washing its hands of the Schmidt decision, not everyone agrees:

Australian Emergency Management Government Page 27 said:
How will Australia consider double jeopardy?

Double jeopardy is the principle that a person should not be twice tried or punished for the same offence or for offences arising from the same conduct.

The Extradition Act currently provides that a person may not be extradited if the person has been acquitted or pardoned by a competent tribunal or authority in the requesting country or Australia, or has undergone the punishment provided by the law of the requesting country or Australia in respect of the extradition offence or another offence constituted by the same conduct as constitutes the extradition offence. If a person has been acquitted, pardoned or punished for an offence constituted by the same conduct as the extradition offence in a third country, this would currently be considered in the Minister’s general discretion.

Double jeopardy provides important safeguards for the protection of the person’s human rights and should be retained in the extradition process.

That place is on the other side of the world so they might not have caught up to your more advanced views of what double-jeopardy protections should entail in extradition cases. :p


As above, I don't think clause 6 applies here. However, Italy does have double jeopardy restrictions, written in Article 649 of the Italian Code of Criminal Procedures. So that would be the determinant as to whether double jeopardy applied in a particular Italian case.

Clause Six simply makes refusal mandatory in those cases, it doesn't automatically allow all other possible infringements on a person's protections from double jeopardy. The UN explains it thusly:

UN Model Extradition Treaty Page 18 said:
Purpose

50. Subparagraph (d) applies the rule against double jeopardy, or non bis in idem, by providing a bar on extradition if the person has already been tried in the requested State for the offence for which extradition has been sought.

Application

51. States may wish to also apply the principle of non bis in idem/double jeopardy in cases involving the requesting State or a third State where the person has been subject to a final judgement and has served his sentence. This could be an optional exception to extradition rather than a mandatory ground if desired.

More commentary from the American Bar Association:

ABA said:
Non bis in idem Or Double Jeopardy Provisions: Many modern extradition treaties contain provisions prohibiting extradition when the person sought has been convicted or acquitted for the same offense in the country from which extradition is sought or in a third country. The increased international mobility of many of today's criminals, combined with the inherently transnational nature of much contemporary organized crime, corruption and terrorism, creates a growing need for the interpretation of such double jeopardy or non bis in idem provisions.
Suggestion: As a practical matter, if there exists no clear, mutually accepted traveaux prepatoires or negotiating history to the treaty which sheds light on this issue, the answer will likely turn upon the Requested State's interpretation of the clause and its applicable domestic law. This may become particularly difficult where the Requested and Requesting States rely upon fundamentally different legislation such as was reviewed earlier in this paper.

I'm going to post the Google Translate of article 649, those who wish to guarantee their sanity should avert their eyes! :)

Article 649 said:
Prohibition of second trial.
1. The defendant is acquitted or convicted by criminal order or become irrevocable can not be prosecuted again for the same act, even if it is otherwise considered for the title, for the degree or circumstances, except as provided by Articles 69 paragraph 2 and 345.
2. If this is in spite of `new initiate criminal proceedings, the judge in every stage of the process pronounce acquittal or not to prosecute, by reading out the cause of the device.

This would seem to prevent another trial, and article 69 paragraph two didn't seem to apply, nor did 345, seeming to refer to sentencing regarding aggravations and mitigations, and the latter to defacing billboards? One wonders why the exception would occur for such a desultory offense!

At any rate unless I see evidence to the contrary, it's my suspicion that another trial after an acquittal in the Trial of the Second Instance would in fact be an exceptional event, and one that might subsume this article 649 with technicalities elsewhere that wouldn't necessarily have to be recognized anywhere else.


The various decisions in the Turkish case could certainly be seen as part of the same process (and were obviously seen that way by the U.S. court) but only in the same way that the three stages of an Italian criminal case can also be seen as part of the same process. As you say, Siddali was eventually found guilty by the General Board. However, he was initially acquitted by the first court, following which the prosecution appealed to the Supreme Court, which annulled the acquittal and returned the case to the first court for a retrial - i.e. exactly what would happen if the Italian Supreme Court annulled the Hellmann decision and returned the case to the second court for retrial. When the first court again stubbornly acquitted Siddali, the case was reviewed by the General Board, which finally convicted him.

Which suggests that the General Board has purview over deciding the guilt or innocence of the accused, a position that has not been advanced by anyone else but yourself regarding the Italian Courts. This makes it a very different body than the Court of Cassation, unless you are maintaining that because of that instance in Turkey, that you suspect the Italian Supreme Court has the same status? I honestly don't know how to translate this case, I don't know what the 'three judge panels' are authorized to do, what possible comparisons could be made to Italian or American courts, nor whether this would have occurred today and thus has no relevance to the current issue.



To me the parallels seem obvious: here's a case which has gone back and forth between various courts following prosecution appeals, where retrials and acquittals have occurred before the final conviction, yet all this obviously didn't constitute double jeopardy for extradition purposes.

It could mean that unlike American, British, or Italian Courts that those 'courts' of 'three judge panels' have (or had) very little authority in the decision of a case, that power is (or was) vested solely in the General Board from the outset.

In the Canadian case, I don't think it matters why they were acquitted initially, since the U.S. court wouldn't have been considering the merits of the case when it ruled on double jeopardy. The important thing is that the court decided the successful prosecution appeal did count as double jeopardy by U.S. standards, but ruled that this was no barrier to extradition. Hence U.S. concepts of double jeopardy obviously aren't strictly applied in extradition cases.

I've realized that, you've required me to refine my argument! :)

Thus there is no absolute barrier like I thought might have applied, the Fifth Amendment just seemed to leap out at me as the obvious reason and it turns out that's not the case. However I don't think that case becomes proof that in all instances the US has forsworn raising double-jeopardy as a barrier to extradition. I suspect the matter might have been addressed by the Canadian Supreme Court in the Schmidt case by this judge here simply deciding it was banal technicality that let them walk in the first place, thus even though he was amused by their non bis in idem defense and allowed that it would be a bar to being prosecuted in America, he wasn't going to create an international incident over it.


I guess my current position (having noticed the 'Requested State' thing!) is that clause 6 doesn't apply at all, so any appeal would have to reference the Fifth Amendment; and that previous rulings show that U.S. courts don't strictly apply U.S. concepts of double jeopardy in extradition cases, recognizing that different legal systems inevitably have different concepts of double jeopardy.

However there is also the legal principle of double jeopardy that doesn't just exist in Clause Six, nor the Fifth Amendment, but is pretty well recognized in the international legal world, that Italy might be out of step with if there is another trial for murder because the Hellmann acquittal is struck down. I maintain that would be an extraordinary event, especially in this specific case, and would therefore be treated as such.

The extradition court has the capacity to refuse extradition for any number of reasons, including that they think the prosecution corrupt, like that Canadian judge did of American officials, but my guess is were push come to shove they'd be a bit more diplomatic and simply say that a retrial would be a violation of her human rights, and that broad category is the reserve of non bis in idem.


I refer my honourable friend to the response I posted a few paragraphs above (the one about the Turkish/Canadian cases). :)

Have we had this conversation before? Like a year ago or so? :)
 
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I got a different impression, that a conviction at a the Trial of the First Instance and then an acquittal at the Trial of the Second Instance was not unusual at all, but the opposite was in fact rather unusual, perhaps even exceptional for murder cases. (...)

No, the opposite is also not exceptional. I don't have statistical figures about the specific point, but I have memory of cases and there is no striking difference in frequency.
Moreover the concepts of acquittal and conviction are not always simple and clear cut, many cases have multiple charges and issues with the interpretation of the law as well as with evidence.
 
No, the opposite is also not exceptional. I don't have statistical figures about the specific point, but I have memory of cases and there is no striking difference in frequency.
Moreover the concepts of acquittal and conviction are not always simple and clear cut, many cases have multiple charges and issues with the interpretation of the law as well as with evidence.

OK, I read somewhere that Moldavian woman's case was unusual for a murder case, in that she was firstly acquitted and then convicted. So you're saying that's not unusual at all? Would that mean roughly half of all murder cases that aren't fast-tracked are the result of the prosecution having appealed and won a conviction after an acquittal? Does the prosecution appeal every acquittal? I got the impression even that was unusual.

How about the Supreme Court striking down an acquittal in a murder case and remanding it for retrial? Or can the Supreme Court of Cassation convict Amanda and Raffaele without another trial?
 
Well, actually I find more interesting the aspect of thinking they are guilty or innocent. The fact they think they are guilty, the belief of guilt, emerges tendentially much stronger than a belief of innocence. This would be a more interesting datum, in my opinion, if I were a believer of innocence. Thus I consider it is more interesting to sum those who believe in guilt rather than the sum of those who accept the verdict.

I do not believe the prosecution made its case and I don't think the kids were involved in any way that Mignini described. I leaned towards innocent from the beginning but was not certain then or now. I find this poll poorly done, sort of a the quality level of PLE forensic work.

There should have been at least two sets of questions as the media and injustice question didn't fit with the others. There should have been a question allowing people to think they didn't know guilt or innocent but agreed with Hellman and one that said the new evidence made them think she was innocent.

About the other point, well basically I am implying that those who say that the verdict was influenced by the media, think Hellmann's trial was unfair and must disagree with the grounds on which the conclusion was reached, because a media influence is obviously unjust. To believe in media influence is equivalent to believing that the decision was based on false/wrong grounds.
That none of the people that thought it was another case of Italian justice screwing up.. no, I don't think I can assume that none meant the first trial: let's assume that only a portion meant the first trial, let's do a projection and consider at best in the 22% there is the same proportion of "innocenters" than the total, so a maximum of about the 11% of those 22% (2.4%).

There is no logic to your math. Given that the media was full force against the kids in the first trial and that the Italian media changed by the time the second verdict came out, it seems, with no way to express a change from thinking guilty to innocent, that more people of that mind would chose it.

The injustice question is the same.
 
I got a different impression, that a conviction at a the Trial of the First Instance and then an acquittal at the Trial of the Second Instance was not unusual at all, but the opposite was in fact rather unusual, perhaps even exceptional for murder cases. I'd be delighted to get firmer information on this, and it just re-occurred to me reading this post you speak Italian! Could you find out for us? One thing that bugged the hell out of me this whole debate was the percentage of Trials of the First instance that resulted in acquittals or adjustments in the Trial of the Second Instance. I've seen figures from 33% to 60-some percent with the high number coming from our own Machiavelli, and I'm not entirely sure I understood exactly what he was referring to in all instances.


There were some charts posted by piktor that were helpful, although the link to the actual pdf is now dead.

http://www.perugiamurderfile.org/viewtopic.php?p=94529#p94529
 
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Yes, the latter dynamic that you describe is utterly illogic.
The isolation of the bathmat print is only explained if the person who made it is not Rudy.
Only a cleanup is a plausible explanation for the isolated prints on the stained bathmat.


You speak as if you are totally ignorant of the argument I put forward explaining the bathmat print without a cleanup of the surrounding floor. Is it that you don't actually read the discussions here or do you simply forget everything that doesn't support guilt?
 
Bit of ego perhaps replacing logic ??

You speak as if you are totally ignorant of the argument I put forward explaining the bathmat print without a cleanup of the surrounding floor. Is it that you don't actually read the discussions here or do you simply forget everything that doesn't support guilt?

With all due respect, counting just posts here, and those copied and/or commented on from PMF, as well as the pho-shopped/mis labeled horizontal/vertical axis from IIP itself, I suspect the bathmat footprint issue approached about one thousand posts.

But of course *I* also should recall exactly what *you* argued.
;)
 
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Because they did not manipulate and not lie, they fought for justice and revealed the truth on this as well as on other cases, investigated and indicted two people whom I consider guilty not innocent: the suspects are two liars guilty of murder in my opinion, and Knox was also found guilty of calunnia and condemned to pay trial expenses. The Kercher family has their own experts and consusltants and they were convincede by themselves that Knox and Sollecito were responsible.


This is bizarro world. Everything is opposite in your view. Really not just you, but the who colpevolisti vs innocentisit worlds.
Mignini, Comodi, Stefanoni, Maresca are not just and true people in my world.
 
With all due respect, counting just posts here, and those copied and/or commented on from PMF, as well as the pho-shopped/mis labeled horizontal/vertical axis from IIP itself, I suspect the bathmat footprint issue approached about one thousand posts.

But of course *I* also should recall exactly what *you* argued.
;)

Counting posts was mentioned. I should jump in and say that you are the one (unless Stint is not you - btw, stint once wrote that pilot padron is a very close friend of his) who constantly is doing copy and paste with JREF posts. I can find them on both PMF's. Some members are sick and tired of it (as mentioned in PMs). It seems that you're a little bit obsessed with JREF and its members.
 
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Yes, the latter dynamic that you describe is utterly illogic.
The isolation of the bathmat print is only explained if the person who made it is not Rudy.

Sorry, you're no nearer reality than you were before. Whatever the existence of that footprint tells us about the actions of the killer after the crime, it doesn't tell us anything about his identity or non-identity.
Only a cleanup is a plausible explanation for the isolated prints on the stained bathmat.
Only a murderer who had been barefoot for quite a time - not just momentarily - would explain the complete soaking of the foot. A person who has shoes does not get the sole of his soaked with blood.
Removing his trousers and rinsing them in the bidet or sink would also leave amounts of Guede's DNA, and require touching of several items in the bathmat. Rising trousers without removing them would produce at least some diluted blood drops on the floor.
Walking back to Mredith's room after this operation would produce at least some drop or print on the floor.
All this is just inconsistent wth the physical scenario, that shows a most simple dynamic of the person just walking out straight in one direction weraing his shoes, and leaving no other track/trace except that of these movement.

The trouble is that none of your thinking (which is flawed anyway) can be applied to Raffaele and not to Guede.

Not only that, but Guede specifically admitted being present, going to the bathroom and then returning with the towels to Meredith's room. The towels had indeed been taken from the bathroom and left in Meredith's room, soaked in blood, which matches Guede's admissions. "Only a clean-up is a plausible explanation" - your words; there is the evidence of the "clean-up" by the killer, limited to the bathroom and his own person, done in a way to chime with Guede's story.
All othr traces and stains were produced by a different dynamic and by someone else, there is nothng that relates them to Guede logically or physically.

This is simply nonsense. There is in fact nothing that relates them to Raffaele logically or physically. Guede is implicated by every trace at the scene - including the bathmat footprint, which (contrary to your invented facts) clearly resembles his foot in the shape of the big toe and not Raff's.
People here ask too many question, they complain I don't answer, at the same time they complain I write too much.
My thought is based on physical and logical details at the very bottom level, at the first stage of observation.

More evasion. Complaints of too many posts saying not very much, don't excuse you from answering specific questions. You have not provided evidence of a "staged" break-in because no such evidence exists.
 
Sorry, you're no nearer reality than you were before. Whatever the existence of that footprint tells us about the actions of the killer after the crime, it doesn't tell us anything about his identity or non-identity.

It tells us that it was not Guede.

The trouble is that none of your thinking (which is flawed anyway) can be applied to Raffaele and not to Guede.

A cleanup cannot be applied to Guede, because Guede obviously didn't care of cleaning up his traces in the other bathroom nor anywhere else.
Walking around without leaving tracks or prints or stains back to Meredith's room also is not consistent with Guede's style in his movements in the house, given that he leaves a trail of visible bloody shoeprints; nor that is consistent with his desire to be clean (nor consistent with Nara's testimony who hears someone walking out of on the gravel path within two minutes). His "dirty" way of moving around would be even more visible if he had wet bloody trousers on: thoug, she doesn't leave drops around.
Moroever, I see no explanation for how he could rinse his trousers: was he still wearing them? If yes, how did he pour water on them? If he used a towel, it should be a partly clean towel.
If he pulled his trousers off to rinse them, thus didn't need to place his foot in water to rinse them, how did it happen that he immerged his foot in blood, and why did he do so?
And after that, how it happened that he only left bloody prints on the bathmat and nowhere else? And, where is the footprint's heel?
This scenario is uterrly inconsistent on any logical passage, it makes no sense. You say my reasoning is flawed, but you only state that, not prove it; you're unable to say why.


Not only that, but Guede specifically admitted being present, going to the bathroom and then returning with the towels to Meredith's room.

If you just want me to take in account the declarations that incriminate Knox and Sollecito...

"Only a clean-up is a plausible explanation" - your words; there is the evidence of the "clean-up" by the killer, limited to the bathroom and his own person, done in a way to chime with Guede's story.

There is no clean up in Guede's story, and that would make no sense.

On the other hand, there is Amanda Knox's blood in the bathroom, showing she was there that night (albeit her staunch supporters will always attempt to maintain that it is not evidence).
There is also other mixed DNA traces of Knox and Meredith where they should not be (such as in Filomena's room, on a stain that had been cleaned and enhanced by luminol). Alll innocentisti folks deliberately decide that these finding have zero value.

This is simply nonsense. There is in fact nothing that relates them to Raffaele logically or physically.

It is false, there is a footprint on the bathmat that only matches Raffaele and not Guede: the bloody footprint is not compatible with Guede.
There are also other luminol footrpints matching Sollecito.

Guede is implicated by every trace at the scene - including the bathmat footprint,

Absolutely not. There is nothing that implicates Rudy in Filomena's room, where the alleged break in and searching for values should have taken place (there are instead traces implicating Knox mixed with Meredith's DNA). Nothing in the small bathroom.

which (contrary to your invented facts) clearly resembles his foot in the shape of the big toe and not Raff's.

If "clearly resembles" is the scientific level of your observation, I'll just answer that I can proof, and can show the well grounded reasons, why the footprint is not compatible with Guede and matches Sollecito.


More evasion. Complaints of too many posts saying not very much, don't excuse you from answering specific questions.

I'm not at your service. I gave a very articulate answer to the first part of LashL post, and never received any feedback. It is not the first time: whenever I give explanations, various people who demended for it don't answer to the arguments or suddenly disappear. After a while, they come back with the same complaints.

You have not provided evidence of a "staged" break-in because no such evidence exists.

I stated that I have reasons. I also posted them elsewhere in the past. Now, I decided to wait before explaining a point again. Be more respectful in drawing conclusions on other posters.
 
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If there was ever any truth to the old saying that anyone can twist and turn any numbers to mean anything they want them to mean, I could not imagine a better example than you have just provided.

Your argument is the ...uhhhh....'winner'.
This despite many less dramatic, but equally drastic examples in the previous few pages

1. Guilty, bad decision 18%
2.Guilty, but not enough evidence 33%
3.Latest example of injustice in Italy 22%
4.Result of US pressure 16%
5.Innocent from the beginning 11%

Clearly 2 and 5 feel that Hellmann's court made the right decision or 44%

Only 1 is clearly of the mind that it was a bad decision or 18%

The other 38% are not clear. One could believe that US pressure caused Hellmann to make a correct or incorrect decision. Frank certainly documented many cases that needed the sunshine of media to undo a wrong by ILE.

It is totally not clear what the injustice answer means. I could answer the poll this way because I think the defamation conviction is ridiculous or because I thought that they should of been charged or that Massei should never have convicted. Using Mach logic since I have 3 reasons to his one, 3/4 of those respondents would be on the side of innocence.

The only thing that can be taken from the poll for sure is that 2 1/2 times the responders thought Hellmann's court made the right decision versus a bad decision.
 
Sorry, you're no nearer reality than you were before. Whatever the existence of that footprint tells us about the actions of the killer after the crime, it doesn't tell us anything about his identity or non-identity.


The trouble is that none of your thinking (which is flawed anyway) can be applied to Raffaele and not to Guede.

Not only that, but Guede specifically admitted being present, going to the bathroom and then returning with the towels to Meredith's room. The towels had indeed been taken from the bathroom and left in Meredith's room, soaked in blood, which matches Guede's admissions. "Only a clean-up is a plausible explanation" - your words; there is the evidence of the "clean-up" by the killer, limited to the bathroom and his own person, done in a way to chime with Guede's story.


This is simply nonsense. There is in fact nothing that relates them to Raffaele logically or physically. Guede is implicated by every trace at the scene - including the bathmat footprint, which (contrary to your invented facts) clearly resembles his foot in the shape of the big toe and not Raff's.


More evasion. Complaints of too many posts saying not very much, don't excuse you from answering specific questions. You have not provided evidence of a "staged" break-in because no such evidence exists.

He makes a big issue of Rudy's DNA not being found in the bathroom. Of course, he ignores that no DNA from Sollecito was found either. The bloody footprint that he attributes to him only yielded Meredith's DNA. So if Sollecito can enter the bathroom, clean up and leave behind a bloody footprint without the forensic police finding any DNA of his to link him to a "bathroom cleanup", then why not Rudy? Further, it is undisputed that in the murder room, Rudy perpetrated a rape and was involved in the murder. Yet only three traces (maybe four if you count the y-haplotype) of Rudy's DNA was found at all, out of the *dozens* of samples taken. IIRC, not nearly as many samples were taken from the bathroom -- a place that was not the scene of a rape and murder, where DNA from a perp is less likely to be deposited. I'm not too surprised that none of the bathroom samples yielded his DNA.

The fact is, only the DNA of the two house residents who shared that bathroom was found there, and we know that neither of them could have made that footprint in blood. We have a male footprint and no DNA of a male in the bathroom. So you have to look at other pieces of evidence to make an identification. Going by size measurements alone is unreliable since the print was made on a fluffy surface, is incomplete, and can only be compared to prints made in ink on a flat surface. You need something stronger. Let's accept that a clean-up did occur. Do we have tangible evidence showing that one of the suspects literally had blood on their hands -- something that would compel him or her to enter the bathroom and wash off? We do. There are bloody hand prints that were matched to Rudy the reliable way. This evidence proves that he was dirty with Meredith's blood. That's indisputable. No such evidence exists to show that Sollecitio was dirty with her blood. The tangible evidence shows that only Rudy had motive to enter the bathroom to wash his hands of Meredith's blood, leaving behind the blood drops in the sink. He then went back to the murder room with towels in hand, bloodied them in a feeble clean-up attempt and bolted out the door (not without getting his shoes soaked with Meredith's blood again and leaving those tracks behind).
 
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Puh-Leeeeeze

Clearly 2 and 5 feel that Hellmann's court made the right decision or 44%

Only 1 is clearly of the mind that it was a bad decision or 18%

The other 38% are not clear. One could believe that US pressure caused Hellmann to make a correct or incorrect decision. Frank certainly documented many cases that needed the sunshine of media to undo a wrong by ILE.

It is totally not clear what the injustice answer means. I could answer the poll this way because I think the defamation conviction is ridiculous or because I thought that they should of been charged or that Massei should never have convicted. Using Mach logic since I have 3 reasons to his one, 3/4 of those respondents would be on the side of innocence.

The only thing that can be taken from the poll for sure is that 2 1/2 times the responders thought Hellmann's court made the right decision versus a bad decision.

#2) "Guilty without evidence" is absolutely not in any way shape or form what Judge Hellmann said when he had those TV cameras he himself approved on him as he delivered his verdict ??
You make a l-o-n-g stretch to infer that people so voting "feel Judge Hellman made the right decision"

How/why can you possibly argue that Judge Hellmann ruled/said "guilty without evidence"

He said more like what was immediately and incessantly crowed about here ever since....not guilty, innocent, no evidence, full acquittal etcccccccccc...

An outstanding debater and later very successful Lawyer once told me that it is self defeating to try and argue each and ever minor point when trying to convince others.
Much more effective and adult like to give in or ignore the weakest.

Rose originally brought the interesting poll to light.
To her credit, she did so knowing the poll was in contrast to her always well documented beliefs.
Rose subsequently observed this about such attempts as your argument above to "spin" the poll to favor innocence:
I agree with Machiavelli on this one. Only 11% are saying they believe they are innocent, period. I don't think the responders are trying to parse it they way we have done. It is just a simple opinion poll. Are they giving an honest answer is my question?

You did catch that didn't you ? ?
But please do continue to "parse", spin, and try to defend the indefensible weakest arguments about innocence.
It all counts toward 75,000.:rolleyes:
 
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With all due respect, counting just posts here, and those copied and/or commented on from PMF, as well as the pho-shopped/mis labeled horizontal/vertical axis from IIP itself, I suspect the bathmat footprint issue approached about one thousand posts.

But of course *I* also should recall exactly what *you* argued.
;)


And guess what: the considered, rational and objective conclusion reached here by most posters was that it was impossible to positively attribute that partial print to anyone other than a generic adult male with reasonably normal-shaped feet of slightly above-average size. Furthermore, the conclusion was that Massei's court had erred egregiously in buying Rinaldi's joke "analysis" of this piece of evidence. And that Massei's utterly fantastical "reasoning" in his report - particularly that laughable bit where he opined (seriously) that the blood for the print could only have been picked up in Meredith's room, and that therefore the absence of other bloody prints leading to the bathroom was proof positive of a cleanup - was wrong, unreasonable and unjust.

And guess what: It appears that Hellmann's court agreed roughly.... 100% with those conclusions. That's not to use a throwaway appeal to authority, but it's to say that when the evidence is looked at rationally and dispassionately, the truth has a far higher chance of emerging. I have no doubt at all that Hellmann's report will state - correctly - that this print is not incriminating evidence against Sollecito, and that in fact it's perfectly consistent not only with Guede's foot but also with Guede's likely movements and actions after the murder. I suspect that Hellmann's report might also criticise Rinaldi's pseudoscience, both for its intrinsic fallibility and also for its unreasonable bias towards the police/prosecution case.

"My fellow skeptics"...... AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA :D :D
 
Puh-Leeeeeze

Glad you were able to find amusement in my post.
Some might even say your concluding sentence adorned with emoticons was purposely demeaning.

Many might wonder how anything in your argument related in any way to what I said in my post.
I simply wondered how with about 1000 posts another poster could be criticized for not remembering DanO's.
Eh ????

Is that somehow related to what you responded, or was the main purpose of your argument to just demean with the concluding "skeptic" reference ??.
 
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