Obama over Perry by 11 points.

MattusMaximus said:
Tell that to the Tea Party, Brainster. I don't think you'll be happy with the response.
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Remember 2008? Virtually all the conservative bloggers and radio talkers were lined up against McCain. And yet the grownups in the party nominated him.

In 2010, McCain was up for reelection to the Senate. The Tea Party favorite was JD Hayworth, who was a reasonably credible challenger, having been an congressman from AZ and a longtime figure on local TV and radio. McCain kicked him to the curb easily.

It is true that the GOP made mistakes in 2010 with idiots like Angle and O'Donnell, blowing their chances to pick up two easy seats in the Senate. But off-year primaries are more easily dominated by the wings of the respective parties (see Joe Lieberman, 2006). The real Republicans know that in 2012 the stakes are high and the party has a strong chance to win provided they don't blow it.

Like I said, however, Romney currently needs some help.
 
I think McCain had advantages Romney doesn't have. McCain has the "war hero", "former GOP candidate" patina that helped him against Hayworth. Also, Hayworth had resigned in disgrace. Romney has to face Perry, who is just more authentic winger than he is. And Romney doesn't have that store of good will among the party faithful. I really think Perry will take this.
 
Someone out there sees Perry as a definate threat. I've noticed a few hatchet job news items in the last few days
 
Unabogie said:
I think McCain had advantages Romney doesn't have. McCain has the "war hero", "former GOP candidate" patina that helped him against Hayworth. Also, Hayworth had resigned in disgrace. Romney has to face Perry, who is just more authentic winger than he is. And Romney doesn't have that store of good will among the party faithful. I really think Perry will take this.
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1. War hero: Legitimate issue, arguably balanced by successful businessman, especially in the current economy.
2. Former GOP candidate. Wash; Romney is a former GOP candidate.
3. Hayworth resigned in disgrace. Um, what? Hayworth got beaten in the great Democratic tide of 2006; he did not resign.

Your other points are reasonable. But I think Perry has vaulted into the lead because of a general GOP dissatisfaction with the current crop of candidates, not on his own particular merits.
 
MG1962 said:
Someone out there sees Perry as a definate threat. I've noticed a few hatchet job news items in the last few days
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You mean the ones that accurately report his views on issues. Most politicians HATE that.
 
I'm ready for 4 more years of change, since that totally happened. /sarcasm

Both parties have largely identical policy.

I hope Obama gets reelected just for my own amusement of seeing people scramble to find excuses for the results of four more years of statism.
 
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corbin said:
I'm ready for 4 more years of change, since that totally happened. /sarcasm
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Who knows, if the Republicans lose enough seats so that they can no longer sabotage Obama every step of way, we might see some of that change happening.
 
Not even his platform is largely different from the Republican platform.

Both favor imperialism and nation building, the expanse of federal government authority at the expense of the states, continuation of mass surveillance and Patriot Act type measures, Keynesian economic policy, a mass of economic regulations that result in general job loss and perks for large corporations, wrongheaded public spending programs, disregard for civil liberties, deficit spending, inflationary monetary policy, militarization of the police, total disregard for the Constitution, etc.

In the real, substantive issues dealing with the functions and scope of government they are identical. They differ only in a few, heavily publicized issues that are disagreed upon as a matter of political theater - like gay marriage, or which country to foist our imperialism upon, or which group of society we should steal from. The question is never raised that maybe we shouldn't be imperialistic or thieves at all. Partisan politics is a great big false dichotomy with one brand of centralized government at one side and another brand of centralized government at the other. It is a sham.
 
I'd wait to see a few more polls before believing this one.

However, I really do expect something like this to happen once more people become familiar with Perry's positions.

After all, Palin started out as a popular choice for McCain, but now she's about 11 or 12 points behind Obama in polls that show Romney and even Perry ahead of Obama.

http://pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm

The only reason I can think of why the same people who hate Palin so much are OK with Perry is simply that they don't know much about him yet.
 
Brainster said:
Romney needs some things to break his way in order to win the nomination.
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I disagree. Rather, I think Romney just needs to stay steady and let the breaks - bad ones - happen to others. Specifically, Perry is, IMO, just another Bachmann. Think of her popularity as a bell curve. Her max was very high but her standard deviation is very small. She peaked and is now on a very steep downhill.

Well, Perry is the same except his standard deviation is much larger. He'll soon peak and then run down a very slowly declining curve.

It's Romney's to lose and he's smart enough to sit out the flashes-in-the-pan and campaign for the long haul. Wall Street and other Big Money is right there with him; their gobs of money will be the difference in the end.
 
Musings During Half-Time of a Rugby Game

As a complete partisan, I'm still very happy to see Perry as the front-runner because I think he he gets the nod he's going to alienate enough people to assure Obama a second term. His huge groundswell of support has peaked and isn't gonig any further, apparently. Well, at least not while Caribou Barbie and the Sweetheart of the Tea Party Rodeo are still in there. When they give up the ghost, most of the Palin/Bachmann mob will move over to Rick.

Of course, Rick's just plain never going to be safe as long as Karl Rove is out there - heaven knows what kind of dirt the Texas GOB Party (Good Old Boys) can dig up (and likely have waiting). Do the Bushies hate Rick enough to push the nomination to Romney? I doubt it, but I can't see them wanting Rick to get any bigger in the party - he'd be a threat to their Texas power base.

The Bush family supports, well... The Bush Family. So, am I the only crazy in the world who sees a compromise candidate coming in The Old Chad Counter? I think it highly unlikely because the primary/caucus scenario makes it very difficult to pull off such back-room deals in the present. I also think that right now the Bushies are going to be content to let Obama win in '12 so that Jeb can make a run in '16, but I won't be surprised if he gets the calling early - particularly if the economy stays in the crapper. One thing his daddy learned from Carville will never change - "It's the economy, stupid!" The master plan is Jeb in '16, but if they think they could win the WH, they might move sooner - but that'd have to be within the next quarter, I feel.

So score Jeb as a longshot. A very long longshot, like a 20-80 chance, with 20% being the possibility of running. He'd need to get in early enough to get the old guard working in Iowa. He wouldn't have to win it, but he'd need to be a respectable 2nd or 3rd.

Obama? Run against Congress. It's that simple. Yeah, Barack has a 50% disapproval rating. But Congress has about 90%! It worked for GOP presidential candidates time and again. Blame Congress for everything from the Kidnapping of the Lindbergh Baby to Global Warming to the Vancouver Hockey Riots. It doesn't matter how much is true, just keep slinging that crap out there.
 
I'm not worried about Perry at all. Polls like that mean nothing right now since Perry is still a largely unknown quantity to most people.

It's a political fact that anyone that attacks Social Security and Medicare the way he has can't get elected. If he wins the nomination, then Obama wins the general. Perry has said too much already that would ensure his loss.

Honestly, I think Romney is the only shot the Republicans have. They have managed to have a collection of popular candidates that are largely unelectable in a national election.
 
The link in the OP was to a site with a banner reading "Real Liberal Politics- no corporate funding".

PPP = Public Policy Polling

Bias?
 
casebro said:
The link in the OP was to a site with a banner reading "Real Liberal Politics- no corporate funding".

PPP = Public Policy Polling

Bias?
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Real Clear Politics, which is fairly reliable, uses them in their "basket" of polls to get their overall average.
 
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