Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[billyryan]

Hi Fine,
Being a guy who has always been impressed with your ability to see what others often do not, can you zoom into this photo that RoseMontague posted awhile back and tell me if you believe this to be a knife drying in the silverware strainer?

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=7390673&postcount=15485

As CapeAladin elsewhere is still wonderin' about Amanda's bank deposit, I wonder, if this was a large kitchen knife, why didn't Amanda simply use it instead of that big ol' honkin' knife she was alleged to have brought over from Raffaele's pad. If that is a knife, by not using that 1, Amanda left open a big chance that Meredith could have ran to the kitchen and grabbed it herself in her own defense, much like I saw when a guy I knew got slugged hard in the face by another guy I knew at a party that I once had a few years back. With blood pouring from his cut up face, Samoan/American Jimmy grabbed a huuuge kitchen knife and threatened Mexican/Amercian Rico, which stopped the bloody fight. Don't F with me anymore, homeboy...

If that is a knife in the strainer, why wouldn't Amanda just use that knife if the attack on Meredith was not premeditated?

This case started out as a murder investigation and turned into a railroading a framing a setting up RWVBWL when the ILE realised that all the lab results were coming back indicating no involvement of Amanda and Raffaele anyone could have used a knife that was in the cottage and Amanda's DNA would not be all that incriminating they really needed something from Raffaele's flat with Amanda's DNA and Merediths blood/DNA on it to seal the deal

I just wonder over the next two weeks what pressure the Perugian judiciary and justice system will bring to bear on Hellmann to vindicate them,I can't help wondering about what meetings are going on right now to attempt to force Hellmann to turn his back on two innocent students and act to save the reputations and careers and maybe the freedom of powerful people within the system who framed them

 

[Paninaro]

Please, no more Peggy Ganong. It's unfortunate if a crime was committed against her, but this is a thread about the horrible crime of murder committed against Meredith Kercher. This discussion is not about the members of this board or of PMF. I suppose Ganongs feelings are genuin, but it's never the less an ad hominem attack on the insightful reasoning of the commenters here by guilt of association. It's a distraction.

The question of reduction

Has anybody considered the possibility that the judges of the appeal will aim at a compromise? Is there any possibility at all that we will get a verdict like in the Casey Anthony case, and that Knox and Sollecito willl be found guilty of lying to police, Calunnia and staging a break in, but that there is unsufficient proof they did any actual killing? That way they will be set free with time served, but the authorities will not lose all face. Can that be an outcome in accordance with Italian law?

I cannot imagine that they will be found gulity of murder now, with the DNA-evidence discredited beyond belief and no credible witness to put them at the scene of the crime. Reasonable doubt have been established and it's clear the judges cannot think otherwise.

 

[shuttlt]

The samples came from Meredith's room and flat. Her DNA was everywhere. When a DNA profile is made the DNA is first copied 128 million times. Then it is broken into pieces. Then, correct me if I'm wrong, luminescence is added to the DNA fragments. The resulting DNA soup is then processed in such a way as to give a profile.

Meretith's DNA was copied 128 million times!

Did you get that?

Most of the samples came from her house?

Did you get that?

Also, labs that do testing on animal and insect DNA are always contaminated by human DNA that can't be entirely found and removed.

A strand of human DNA weighs about ten pico grams. Are you going to remove every piece of that DNA from the lab?

Justinian. Is there any need to be so aggressive and patronizing? The worst thing about this debate is how unnecessarily confrontational and partisan everybody is. I am well aware of all everything in your post.

 

[shuttlt]

It's quite simple. In any lab processing DNA evidence there is going to be a small quantity of DNA from each article processed floating around in the lab. Every once in a while a piece of that floating DNA will land on another piece of evidence or one of the tools. In the majority of these cases, these tiny peaks will be lost at the bottom of the chart. In the cases where the is no other DNA present, this will show up as low RFU peaks that can be examined by blowing up the scale on the chart. If this noise doesn't fit any of the known profiles in the case it will simply be ignored or marked "too low". But when this noise can be touted as a major break in the case it gets printed and paraded in front of the court. I believe we call this a form of confirmation bias.

So you think the contamination was airborne? With the technicians working there every day, other samples from other cases and so forth and allegedly 6 days since the previous Meredith sample was tested it just seems like astonishingly bad luck to me. We clearly differ on this and I'm not going to push it. It's the bra clasp all over again. To me it's surprising that of all the dust in the house Raffaele's dust should make up such a large proportion of the contamination (assuming we go with the dust theory), other people aren't surprised in the least.

Really, if LCN levels DNA was floating about in the way you seem to be describing no LCN DNA analysis would be possible. The knife would already have been hopelessly contaminated with Raffaele's DNA from the air in his flat.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

small particles are easily transferred

So you think the contamination was airborne? With the technicians working there every day, other samples from other cases and so forth and allegedly 6 days since the previous Meredith sample was tested it just seems like astonishingly bad luck to me. We clearly differ on this and I'm not going to push it. It's the bra clasp all over again. To me it's surprising that of all the dust in the house Raffaele's dust should make up such a large proportion of the contamination (assuming we go with the dust theory), other people aren't surprised in the least.

shuttlt,

An earlier comment of yours mentioned some of the things that annoyed you about discussions this case. One of the things that annoys me is when people go on about Raffaele's DNA being abundant on the clasp, when it was probably in the range of 100-150 pg, which is on the borderline of being in the low template region. Moreover, there is other DNA there, so Raffaele's putative profile makes up only a small amount of the total DNA on the clasp. As Dan Krane and Mark Waterbury implied, smaller particles are easier to transfer than larger particles (as well as perhaps being to small to see). Mark even mentions static electricity and Van der Waals forces in his book, IIRC. Have you read the Conti-Vecchiotti report yet? If so, what did you think?

 

[AmyStrange]

My understanding is...

So you think the contamination was airborne? With the technicians working there every day, other samples from other cases and so forth and allegedly 6 days since the previous Meredith sample was tested it just seems like astonishingly bad luck to me. We clearly differ on this and I'm not going to push it. It's the bra clasp all over again. To me it's surprising that of all the dust in the house Raffaele's dust should make up such a large proportion of the contamination (assuming we go with the dust theory), other people aren't surprised in the least.

-

and thank you for sharing Shuttlt,

that Raffaele's DNA made up a miniscule part of the overall DNA found on the clasp. Remember there was the full profile of Meredith and the profiles of from four to (up to) sixteen other different people. Most of Raffaele's DNA profile (according to the C&V report anyway) came from Dr. S' cherry picking from all the other signals and noises available, but that's just my understanding of the evidence,

Dave

 

[shuttlt]

shuttlt,

An earlier comment of yours mentioned some of the things that annoyed you about discussions this case. One of the things that annoys me is when people go on about Raffaele's DNA being abundant on the clasp, when it was probably in the range of 100-150 pg, which is on the borderline of being in the low template region. Moreover, there is other DNA there, so Raffaele's putative profile makes up only a small amount of the total DNA on the clasp. As Dan Krane and Mark Waterbury implied, smaller particles are easier to transfer than larger particles (as well as perhaps being to small to see). Mark even mentions static electricity and Van der Waals forces in his book, IIRC. Have you read the Conti Vecchiotti report yet? If so, what did you think?

halides,

I certainly wouldn't consciously use the word abundant. Perhaps I have in the past, if so I withdraw it. More abundant and less abundant would probably be more appropriate. Even so, abundant seems like an odd choice of words.

Abundant or not, it has always seemed like very bad luck to me that it should be his DNA in the dust in greater amounts than people who spent more time in the house, and presumably left more dust.

I can't dedicate the time to reading the report until the after the 19th. Perhaps then.

 

[shuttlt]

that Raffaele's DNA made up a miniscule part of the overall DNA found on the clasp. Remember there was the full profile of Meredith

I can't see how that is significant except to demonstrate that it probably wasn't Raffaeles bra.

and the profiles of from four to (up to) sixteen other different people.

Again, I don't see that that is desperately significant. There has long been an argument that if Raffaele's DNA is on there and somebody elses DNA is on there at a lower concentration then they must have gotten there by the same method. I've never liked that argument. I'm perfectly willing to believe that Filomena's DNA is on the clasp. It just surprises me that Raffaele's DNA is on there more strongly.

Most of Raffaele's DNA profile (according to the C&V report anyway) came from Dr. S' cherry picking from all the other signals and noises available, but that's just my understanding of the evidence,

Dave

To answer that I'll need to spend the time reading the report . The clasp has never been my thing anyway.

 

[AmyStrange]

To answer that I'll need to spend the time reading the report . The clasp has never been my thing anyway.

-

Fair enough

 

[Chris_Halkides]

review article on trace DNA analysis

Link here. "Concomitant with the ability to amplify minute quantities of material is the increased likelihood of contamination being detected and of artefacts of the amplification process being increased due to stochastic effects....Contamination is a crucial issue in the analysis and interpretation of trace DNA. Contaminant DNA may appear as either the major or minor sample within a mixture or, alternatively, may overwhelm the target DNA completely."

 

[Katody Matrass]

I think the prosecution made a very bad move and hurt their case greatly by defending the knife to the bitter end. That way they gave a lot of stage time to C&V, time that was used to exhibit the terrible forensic work, both at the scene and in lab. That let C&V undermine not just the clasp and the knife, but basically all the forensics the cops did in this investigation.
To an objective observer the problems with the knife are very obvious and are completely independent from any DNA results:
- doesn't fit the wounds, doesn't match the imprint, doesn't fit into any scenario, no trace of transportation of bloody knife, no blood or other human cells on the knife etc.

I think judge Hellmann and his assistant see all of it and are astonished by the death grip with which the prosecution clench to the knife evidence. The more they stress the single, unconfirmed and badly documented PCR run by Stefanoni, the more the problems with collection, chain of custody and testing come to light. The more they argue against the contamination, the more misconduct and tampering come to mind as an alternative.

I think Comfy Manuela et al. got blinded by the very favourable winds that judge Massei passed in their direction. It took a really fortunate winds to get this piece of evidence through the first court and it's up for all to see what mental back flips it required from the previous judge. That must have helped them convince themselves against all reason that they have a perfectly valid piece of evidence that any court will accept. Hence the self destructing fight and the shock and disbelief when facing reality now: "ill winds", "the judges are against us"...

The fact is that Hellmann is not willing to perform the mental gymnastics the previous judge did so happily.

 

[AmyStrange]

-

Also, another indicator of contamination is that there was no other evidence of Raffaele in Meredith's room what so ever.

ETA: or, anywhere else on the bra for that matter.

 

[Matthew Best]

Hopefully we will be turning our attention to consequences for the people who caused and supported this miscarriage of justice,and hope the consequences for
Mignini
Commodi
Stefanoni
Massei
Napoleoni
Nadeau
Quinnell
Ganong
to name but a few will be very dire indeed

I can't imagine that Knox or her family will want to escape from one courtroom into another to start proceedings against some essentially anonymous bloggers. I don't know anything about Ganong or Quinnell and I suppose they may be well off, but even assuming Knox could win a defamation case against them (which is by no means certain), the damages would be limited (they aren't newspapers with multi-million pound budgets) and I think any such case would look vindictive and would risk being perceived as an attempt to suppress free speech.

I don't think there will be any consequences for the last three people on your list.

As for the others, I have my doubts about that, too.

 

[shuttlt]

-

Also, another indicator of contamination is that there was no other evidence of Raffaele in Meredith's room what so ever.

You know the traditional response... We all know Guede violently attacked her, but there wasn't terribly much of him in the room either.

 

[Onofarar]

I have been reviewing the Oggi files of the evidence collection. In the first part within 25 second or so, some technicians are milling about the mattress (which I take to be Meredith's mattress). In which room does this take place?

I am not the expert on ths stuff that Dan O and several others are but if you are referring to the video where the mattress is on its side leaning against a wall and several people are on either side of it looking like they just found an important artifact at an archealogical (sp?) dig then I think the mattress was in the kitchen / living room of the cottage. IMHO

 

[Supernaut]

_______________

Komponisto,

Hmmm. I find it interesting that Stefanoni apparently didn't zoom-in on other samples taken from Raffaele's flat. Suppose she had, and found Meredith's DNA in some (and only some) of those other samples. Would that have served, for some, to exonerate precious Amanda? Or provided extra proof, for others---as if we needed more!--- against that American murderess?

Greg Hampikian, in a radio interview, said that he wouldn't be surprised to learn that Amanda had innocently transferred Meredith's DNA to Raffaele's flat, since the two girls lived together and shared a bathroom. Today, no one knows whether Meredith's DNA should be expected to be found in Raffaele's flat, in tiny traces. In the future, with an ability to reliably read DNA profiles from, say, a single cell, finding a victim's DNA under similar living situations might be commonplace. And therefore irrelevant. Or it might be rare, and therefore incriminating. So---for all we know, today---the test results of the double DNA knife, even if reliable, may be irrelevant. And if we don't know whether a piece information is relevant or irrelevant.........is it evidence?

///

The problem as I see it is that 'DNA forensics' is becoming something of a game for the scientists - they are showing off.

If traces of identifiable tissue or fluid (blood, saliva, skin, whatever) are are able to provide repeatable, uniquivocable results (a full profile and hence identification of the donor), then you have what I would call evidence.

Where invisible traces of unidentifiable tissue or fluid have yielded a partial profile, mixed with others, this should not be used as evidence - let alone proof - of anything, given the ease with which DNA can be transferred from object to object.

I'm saying that don't believe 'LCN' DNA amplification should have any place in courts of law, period.

 

[JREF2010]

Edgardo Giobbi effect

Please, no more Peggy Ganong. It's unfortunate if a crime was committed against her, but this is a thread about the horrible crime of murder committed against Meredith Kercher. This discussion is not about the members of this board or of PMF. I suppose Ganongs feelings are genuin, but it's never the less an ad hominem attack on the insightful reasoning of the commenters here by guilt of association. It's a distraction.

The question of reduction

Has anybody considered the possibility that the judges of the appeal will aim at a compromise? Is there any possibility at all that we will get a verdict like in the Casey Anthony case, and that Knox and Sollecito willl be found guilty of lying to police, Calunnia and staging a break in, but that there is unsufficient proof they did any actual killing? That way they will be set free with time served, but the authorities will not lose all face. Can that be an outcome in accordance with Italian law?

I cannot imagine that they will be found gulity of murder now, with the DNA-evidence discredited beyond belief and no credible witness to put them at the scene of the crime. Reasonable doubt have been established and it's clear the judges cannot think otherwise.

It can be seen in pictures how the Massei trial surprised the defense with a guilty verdict. They were taking pictures and ready to go home with Amanda etc... It must have been paralyzing to be under a completely different , and confident , point of view. Madison Paxton said on tape recently, she wasn't surprised of the Massei verdict because of all the trash media against Amanda and Raffaele.
Is this why Girgha is being so reserved?

Closing will be interesting, because it seems now with Hellmans rejection of the prosecutions request, any theory using Amanda and the knife would seem a losers choice. What approach will the prosecutors take?

As a virtual juror, what I want to see from the accusers is a coherent timeline when all this happened, supported by data, science....not fictional movie type thoughts.

The Edgardo Giobbi stuff seemed so convincing in the beginning, but now the theory is scrutinized, gut instinct isn't enough.

Edgardo could just tell they were guilty, but what exactly is he using in his "Mental Lab". I think he was the first to choose them as guilty, even before Mignini, before Stefanoni, the local Perugia looking up to his professional position.

Edgardo Giobbi was from the Rome Serious Squad, a prestigious position.

 

[RoseMontague]

I can't imagine that Knox or her family will want to escape from one courtroom into another to start proceedings against some essentially anonymous bloggers. I don't know anything about Ganong or Quinnell and I suppose they may be well off, but even assuming Knox could win a defamation case against them (which is by no means certain), the damages would be limited (they aren't newspapers with multi-million pound budgets) and I think any such case would look vindictive and would risk being perceived as an attempt to suppress free speech.

I don't think there will be any consequences for the last three people on your list.

As for the others, I have my doubts about that, too.

In my opinion, the two most likely scapegoats will be <Dr Stefi and Napoleoni.
Or they both may get an award to make up for the not guilty verdict, it would not surprise me in the least.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

mattress

I am not the expert on ths stuff that Dan O and several others are but if you are referring to the video where the mattress is on its side leaning against a wall and several people are on either side of it looking like they just found an important artifact at an archealogical (sp?) dig then I think the mattress was in the kitchen / living room of the cottage. IMHO

Onofarar,

I looked at the film again, and I agree with you. Given that small amounts of DNA can be transmitted when one coughs or even talks, I would think that the mattress probably has some of Meredith's DNA. Taking it through the hallway to the kitchen seems like a good way to spread it around.

 

[Onofarar]

Well, Mignini read the statement in court, so if Curt and Edda could be charged for retelling Amanda's story, maybe GM can be charged for repeating Rudy's lie

I love it!
And no investigation necessary everybody heard and/or saw hm read it in open court.

Aside to Manuela (assuming you read this) wait until your boss starts serving his 16 month (deserved) sentence - then charge him! - since he won't be part of your little judiciary group anymore there can be no retaliation!