Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[LondonJohn]

I think you are on the right track but a few of the details don't quite fit.

- The duvet under Meredith's right arm. There are of course other alternative answers. Perhaps it was tucked under to clear the path in front of the bed or perhaps it isn't actually tucked but just looks like it is.

- The footprints leaving the room. There isn't an apparent origin for these footprints starting with a fresh step in pooling blood. An alternative here is that the blood was already on the shoes from right after the attack when Rudy was steping on the pillow. Then the shoes were removed and left in the room as Rudy walked to the bathroom and back in his stocking feet. Just before locking Meredith's door and leaving the cottage, Rudy puts his still bloody shoes back on.

ETA
- Dumping the tote would leave a collection of small items and debris where it was dumped. Is there any evidence of this to help confirm that theory?

I can't imagine that the duvet found itself on the floor before any sort of confrontation had ever taken place. It's possible though that the duvet was pulled off the bet in a struggle before Meredith was forced onto her knees at knifepoint in front of the wardrobe.

And you're probably correct in regard to Guede's very faint shoe prints made in Meredith's blood*. I had not delved into the details of the provenance of these prints in my post, because it was getting lengthy as it was. But it's entirely possible that things happened as you describe. However, I think there's still a possibility that Guede might have slid one of his shoes through some of the pooled blood on the way out for the last time (there's evidence of blood smearing on the floor near to the door), and - having realised what he'd done - perhaps hopped to the door, supported himself against the door frame, and wiped most of the blood off with one of the towels. He might well have thought that he'd removed sufficient blood to avoid leaving visible prints - and he'd almost have been correct to think that. However, it's clear that there was still a very small amount of blood on his shoe, which caused the faint (and disappearing) prints on a track leading towards the front door.


* It's worth remembering that these prints were so faint - though still visible under close scrutiny - that the "crack" forensics goons didn't spot them for at least a couple of hours after they started their investigation. They even trod all over the prints repeatedly until someone finally noticed them!

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

Thank you!

It's unbelievable to see it. Not once did they change gloves, not once did they change shoecovers. Horde of forensic geniuses shuffle their feet all over the cottage, then raid the murder room, trampling and rummaging everything for more then hour. There is no organisation, everybody grab and reposition whatever they want, without any documentation.

From the photos at InjusticeInPerugia I understand that the video starts after they "worked" on the room for some time already. The mattress is out of the room and the fixed lights installed.

It's only after that shuffling and trampling that they did the luminol and sampled the floor for "mixed" DNA, right? I can't understand how anyone could treat those "findings" seriously.

Be sure to watch the part where they snatch a bag off the floor, place it on top of a bloodstain and underneath a camera stand, and then toss it back where they found it when when they are finished. Or the part where the investigator drops a swab on the floor and then picks it up and resumes swabbing the sample. And don't miss the unforgettable sequence where they stuff all of Meredith's clothing into a suitcase and trundle it out of the room half-open. And yet, according to Italy's most esteemed DNA expert and most expensive male prostitute, the venerable Novelli, contamination at that crime scene is less likely than a meteor strike on the courthouse.

 

[JREF2010]

And yet, according to Italy's most esteemed DNA expert and most expensive male prostitute, the venerable Novelli, contamination at that crime scene is less likely than a meteor strike on the courthouse.

Novelli will have a difficult time protecting the Perfect Squad, if the Defense plays the video again, and then show the rusty bra clasp.

Its hard to defend theory when there is physical proof showing the opposite.

 

[LondonJohn]

but the duvet, and sheet too, would have been off the bed before the murderer sat down , or kneeled down to look under the bed, leaving the bloody knife imprint on the bedsheet. Thats the key point, the bloody knife print was logically left immediately after the stabbing.

if the scenario was that she was attacked and killed quickly, the murderer then sitting down pressing the bloody knife on the bed and possibly on the other side of Rudy was the purse.

did Rudy stab her, then yank the sheets and duvet off throwing them on top of her, then he sat down to rummage through the purse and left the bloody knife imprint?

Yes, your point about the bloody knife imprint on the lower sheet is a very good one. I had forgotten about that, and I agree with you that the placing of the bloody knife onto that lower sheet is highly likely to have happened immediately after the stabbing (i.e. before there was an opportunity to rinse the knife in the bathroom).

I therefore agree that a more likely scenario is that Guede killed Meredith, then immediately threw the duvet and top sheet over her body. Psychologists might suggest that he wanted to avoid looking at the results of his horrendous deeds while he remained in the room. Incidentally, some people mistakenly (perhaps deliberately) claim that the duvet had no blood on it - suggesting that it was placed over Meredith's body long after she had died and after her blood had congealed (which then implies a post-murder clean-up). But crime scene photos of the underside of the duvet (i.e. the side touching the body) showed that it was in fact somewhat saturated in blood in large areas. This therefore strongly suggests that the duvet was trhwon over Meredith either very shortly after she died, or even while she was still alive and bleeding profusely.

So yes, I'll change my scenario to the one that you propose: Guede stabbed and sexually assaulted Meredith, then stood up, threw the duvet and top sheet over her body (perhaps before she was even dead), sat on the now-exposed bottom sheet on top of the mattress, and placed the knife on that bottom sheet (causing the bloody imprint on the sheet). He put the knife down in order to search through Meredith's bag for her keys and for any valuables. I think that he either tipped or removed by hand the large items from the bag that were discovered on the bottom sheet. Note that I am not suggesting that he totally upended the bag - which would have caused all the small items at the bottom of the bag to also deposit onto the bottom sheet, as someone else noted. I merely think that he either slightly tipped the bag such that the large items at the top of the bag (including the textbook and a paper pad) fell out onto the bottom sheet, or he removed these upper items by hand.

 

[Draca]

Isn't it more likely that the killer (i.e. Guede) tipped these items - including the book - out of her bag onto the bed as he was searching for the keys he needed and items of value after the murder? For me, the most persuasive argument for this scenario is that the items are lying on the mattress. Had Meredith removed the items on arriving home, the duvet would have been lying in its normal position on top of the mattress, and the items would have been placed onto the duvet. Of course the items could originally have been lying on top of the duvet, but were tipped onto the mattress when the killer (Guede) pulled the duvet off the bed to cover Meredith. But I still favour the theory that the items were tipped out of the bag by the killer.

The tote bag was on the floor toward the desk and Meredith. There is a book on the floor that looks like it fell out of the bag. There is also an electronics cord coming out of the bag. Both the cord and location show that RG didn't take the tote bag and dump the items on the bed. The tote bag would be near the bed, the cord wouldn't be in the bag and there would likely be smaller items on the bed like pens. I think MK placed the items on her bed there. I've always thought it was likely that RG dug through the tote bag on the floor looking for valuables or the keys though. They didn't collect that bag until the spring and DNA tests were not allowed on it.

http://www.facebook.com/editphoto.p...01286599.45660.106344459390034&type=1&theater

 

[Diocletus]

komponisto,

The cycle time for a capillary electrophoresis run plus the pre-run preparations is about 30 minutes for the Applied Biosystems, Inc. (ABI) 310 (I cannot recall which machine Stefanoni used). I have previously stressed the importance of the electronic data files, but I think that the machine logs are also important and may hold information on what runs were done when and in what order. If Italy's laws concerning DNA discovery are not explicit about routinely turning over machine logs, standard operating procedures, and electronic data files, then this case should be Exhibit A on the need for such reform. MOO.

Does the occurrence of a CE run on a given date, e.g., November 13, imply that there must be an e-gram, whether stored electronically or in hard copy, for that date? Is it possible to state that the test results in a "match" without having read/reviewed an e-gram?

 

[JREF2010]

Yes, your point about the bloody knife imprint on the lower sheet is a very good one. I had forgotten about that, and I agree with you that the placing of the bloody knife onto that lower sheet is highly likely to have happened immediately after the stabbing (i.e. before there was an opportunity to rinse the knife in the bathroom).

I therefore agree that a more likely scenario is that Guede killed Meredith, then immediately threw the duvet and top sheet over her body. Psychologists might suggest that he wanted to avoid looking at the results of his horrendous deeds while he remained in the room. Incidentally, some people mistakenly (perhaps deliberately) claim that the duvet had no blood on it - suggesting that it was placed over Meredith's body long after she had died and after her blood had congealed (which then implies a post-murder clean-up). But crime scene photos of the underside of the duvet (i.e. the side touching the body) showed that it was in fact somewhat saturated in blood in large areas. This therefore strongly suggests that the duvet was trhwon over Meredith either very shortly after she died, or even while she was still alive and bleeding profusely.

So yes, I'll change my scenario to the one that you propose: Guede stabbed and sexually assaulted Meredith, then stood up, threw the duvet and top sheet over her body (perhaps before she was even dead), sat on the now-exposed bottom sheet on top of the mattress, and placed the knife on that bottom sheet (causing the bloody imprint on the sheet). He put the knife down in order to search through Meredith's bag for her keys and for any valuables. I think that he either tipped or removed by hand the large items from the bag that were discovered on the bottom sheet. Note that I am not suggesting that he totally upended the bag - which would have caused all the small items at the bottom of the bag to also deposit onto the bottom sheet, as someone else noted. I merely think that he either slightly tipped the bag such that the large items at the top of the bag (including the textbook and a paper pad) fell out onto the bottom sheet, or he removed these upper items by hand.

more questions..

The book on the bed, throws me off, how did it get there? You think from the purse? WHat is the book, the one Robyn loaned her?
Did they find the DNA of Rudy from that purse on the bed or was it a different bag?

Here's a picture, a good piece of room for the murderer to sit between O and J.

http://www.hotklix.com/link/news/India/Chilling-Picture-of-Meredith-Kercher-Murder-Scene


Looking at the end table it appears room enough where the purse might have been sitting. Empty space by the H card.

 

[Justinian2]

I think we were rather surprised to find the victims supposed DNA, in the unlikely event that it was genuinely present on the knife, was tainted with starch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joyce_Gilchrist

Joyce Gilchrist of the Oklahoma forensic lab, like Patrizia Stefanoni of Italy, framed people. Joyce was canned and Oklahoma was sued for many millions.

People of Oklahoma have already been through this.

 

[Draca]

The book on the bed, throws me off, how did it get there? You think from the purse? WHat is the book, the one Robyn loaned her?
Did they find the DNA of Rudy from that purse on the bed or was it a different bag?

Looking at the end table it appears room enough where the purse might have been sitting. Empty space by the H card.

The book on the bed is the one Robyn loaned her.

The brown leather purse is the one RG's DNA was found on.

The space on the end table is where the lamp would have been before being knocked on the floor.


http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?...01286599.45660.106344459390034&type=1&theater

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?...01286599.45660.106344459390034&type=1&theater


I recommend Ron Hendry's analysis:
http://www.injusticeinperugia.org/RonHendry10.html

 

[komponisto]

Nelson debate update

My debate with Rolf Nelson on Less Wrong is starting to go more deeply into the time of death issue (see my previous reply). (The plan is to return to the DNA after the C-V translation is completed.)

 

[Chris_Halkides]

as the stomach turns

My debate with Rolf Nelson on Less Wrong is starting to go more deeply into the time of death issue (see my previous reply). (The plan is to return to the DNA after the C-V translation is completed.)

komponisto and Rolfe,

I saw that. It seemed to me that Rolf Nelson might have been mislead by the question of when a stomach is completely empty, rather than the time it begins emptying, but maybe the two of you are past that point. How long does it take for a stomach to empty once it starts?

 

[komponisto]

komponisto,

The cycle time for a capillary electrophoresis run plus the pre-run preparations is about 30 minutes for the Applied Biosystems, Inc. (ABI) 310 (I cannot recall which machine Stefanoni used). I have previously stressed the importance of the electronic data files, but I think that the machine logs are also important and may hold information on what runs were done when and in what order. If Italy's laws concerning DNA discovery are not explicit about routinely turning over machine logs, standard operating procedures, and electronic data files, then this case should be Exhibit A on the need for such reform. MOO.

Thanks for the info. So it does sound like a number of different items could be tested on the same day.

Regarding electronic data files (and presumably other records like machine logs), I have for a long time been wanting to make the comment that it is absolutely astonishing that anyone could argue with a straight face, as some authorities apparently have, that these shouldn't be subject to discovery on the grounds that the defense "might misrepresent" the information. You could use this same reasoning to argue against any information being disclosed to the defense at all. If the defense presents misleading arguments, it is the responsibility of the prosecution to convince the jury of this.

 

[komponisto]

komponisto and Rolfe,

I saw that. It seemed to me that Rolf Nelson might have been mislead by the question of when a stomach is completely empty, rather than the time it begins emptying, but maybe the two of you are past that point. How long does it take for a stomach to empty once it starts?

On average, from what I understand, it takes 4-5 hours from ingestion for the stomach to completely empty. The average lag time appears to be around 80 minutes. So probably something like 2 to 3 hours for the difference, under typical circumstances.

 

[christianahannah]

The tote bag was on the floor toward the desk and Meredith. There is a book on the floor that looks like it fell out of the bag. There is also an electronics cord coming out of the bag. Both the cord and location show that RG didn't take the tote bag and dump the items on the bed. The tote bag would be near the bed, the cord wouldn't be in the bag and there would likely be smaller items on the bed like pens. I think MK placed the items on her bed there. I've always thought it was likely that RG dug through the tote bag on the floor looking for valuables or the keys though. They didn't collect that bag until the spring and DNA tests were not allowed on it.

http://www.facebook.com/editphoto.p...01286599.45660.106344459390034&type=1&theater

While you are correct that the tote was not collected until March 2008, I am fairly certain that tests were run on it with the results showing only the profile of Meredith.

 

[RoseMontague]

I sense you are not convinced by the TOD argument here. Perhaps you would like to give your reasons for that rather than attacking the qualifications you see in some posters here? I am also curious if the teacher you refer to has made his/her profession and/or personal information a matter of public record and indicated he/she is the same person as a poster here, if not I think you should probably withdraw that one.
Hellmann can take the same evidence and testimony and come to a different conclusion even if no new expert review is undertaken. That testimony by different experts is different and it is a matter of common sense that not everything they said was taken as accurate by the first court simply because in most case they can't all be right about something they don't agree on. Massei made a choice to agree with the prosecution experts and not the defense experts on almost every major issue. Hellmann is not going to agree that the knife and bra clasp evidence is reliable after his experts told him otherwise and I believe he is going to take a hard look at other questionable expert opinions put forward by the prosecution.

It is entirely possible that he will accept the argument the defense makes in the appeal on the TOD issue.

It was pointed out to me that the poster that I had a question about has indicated the information on this forum. No need for that one to be withdrawn Pilot.

 

[christianahannah]

Thanks for the info. So it does sound like a number of different items could be tested on the same day.

Regarding electronic data files (and presumably other records like machine logs), I have for a long time been wanting to make the comment that it is absolutely astonishing that anyone could argue with a straight face, as some authorities apparently have, that these shouldn't be subject to discovery on the grounds that the defense "might misrepresent" the information. You could use this same reasoning to argue against any information being disclosed to the defense at all. If the defense presents misleading arguments, it is the responsibility of the prosecution to convince the jury of this.

I am in full agreement with your response - all evidence/documentation the prosecution has of forensic testing should be turned over to the defense with the agreement from both that privacy issues (such as DNA profiles) should not be advertised to the public at large.

 

[LondonJohn]

On average, from what I understand, it takes 4-5 hours from ingestion for the stomach to completely empty. The average lag time appears to be around 80 minutes. So probably something like 2 to 3 hours for the difference, under typical circumstances.

Yes, this is essentially correct. But of course only measurement that has any importance in this case is lag time (T(lag)). Experimental research indicates that for a healthy adult eating a moderate mixed-content meal, T(lag) (lag time - essentially the time taken for food to start exiting the stomach into the duodenum, measured from the start time of the meal) has a median value of around 80-82 minutes, but that around 25% of people have a T(lag) of 102 minutes or longer.

Extrapolation of the statistical bell curve indicates that around 2% have a T(lag) of 150 minutes or longer - which is the minimum T(lag) Meredith would have had to have had if she started the pizza meal at around 6.30pm and was attacked immediately upon returning to the cottage at 9pm. Now, 2% doesn't sound like a high figure, and it clearly places Meredith in a very small minority. But to place it into context, around 2% of western adult males are 6ft2 or taller. And I would imagine that every single one of us knows a man who is around this height.

But here's where it gets interesting. If Meredith was not attacked until, say, 10.30pm, this would mean that she would have had to have a T(lag) of at least 240 minutes. And the research data tell us that this is an extremely improbable scenario. The data suggest that only around 0.005% of people have a T(lag) of at least this time. Again, to place it into context, around 0.005% of western adult males are 7ft6 or taller. And I bet that you've only ever seen a man of that height on TV or on a basketball court. They are extraordinarily rare. As are people with T(lag) of 240 minutes or more.

Essentially, a study of the bell curve of T(lag) indicates that - given that we know with high confidence that Meredith was one of the 2% of the population with a lag time of at least 150 minutes - it's extremely more likely that she died between 9pm and 9.30pm than between 9.30pm and 10pm (around 95% probability of the former versus the latter). And it's practically impossible that she died any later than 10.30pm. To place her death at 11.45pm, as Massei's court did in its infinite wisdom, requires a complete suspension of the accumulated scientific/medical knowledge of human gastrointestinal physiology. It's simply utterly impossible.

 

[komponisto]

Yes, this is essentially correct. But of course only measurement that has any importance in this case is lag time (T(lag)). Experimental research indicates that for a healthy adult eating a moderate mixed-content meal, T(lag) (lag time - essentially the time taken for food to start exiting the stomach into the duodenum, measured from the start time of the meal) has a median value of around 80-82 minutes, but that around 25% of people have a T(lag) of 102 minutes or longer.

Extrapolation of the statistical bell curve indicates that around 2% have a T(lag) of 150 minutes or longer

As it happens, the paper I linked to (which I believe I got from you originally) stated that the T_lag for solid meals did not fit to a normal distribution ("bell curve"). Nonetheless, as I pointed out in my debate with Rolf (Nelson, not to be confused with our own Rolfe), the percentiles recorded are actually closely approximated by assuming it did anyway, with a mean of 81.5 and a standard deviation of 30. And in fact, with this assumption, the story for the prosecution is even worse than you described: a T_lag of 240 minutes would be expected from only one person in every few million (less than 0.000029%), compared to one in every hundred or so with a T_lag of 150. This would yield shift the odds in favor of the defense theory by a factor in the tens of thousands.

Of course, one has to be cautious here because the distribution isn't normal. However, I don't know of any particular reason to think the deviation from normality would happen in such a way as to make a T_lag of 240 minutes any more likely.

 

[Rolfe]

It won't be normal because the left side of the curve is constrained. But you're right, you can still do the sums.

Rolfe.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

contamination; analysis versus tampering

Thanks for the info. So it does sound like a number of different items could be tested on the same day.

Regarding electronic data files (and presumably other records like machine logs), I have for a long time been wanting to make the comment that it is absolutely astonishing that anyone could argue with a straight face, as some authorities apparently have, that these shouldn't be subject to discovery on the grounds that the defense "might misrepresent" the information. You could use this same reasoning to argue against any information being disclosed to the defense at all. If the defense presents misleading arguments, it is the responsibility of the prosecution to convince the jury of this.

komponisto,

In some cases of contamination careful checking has shown that two evidence items passed through a lab at approximately the same time. I don't have more information than that at my fingertips, but I could check around. Of course the contamination could either occur when a technician handled a number of items or in the machine itself.

One of the most ridiculous arguments put forward is that the defense analysis of the electronic data files constituted evidence tampering (this happened in Michigan on at least one occasion). This is absurd so long as the original files still exist. However, the defense has as much right to analyze the data as the prosecution in my view, and by the time one gets to the stage of a paper electropherogram, some of the choices have already been made.