Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Dan O.]

Just an amazing breakdown from the statement analysis dude in a new post.

http://seamusoriley.blogspot.com/2011/07/amanda-knox-language-of-sexual-homicide.html

Personally, I think Seamus has left 70% of his brain behind door number 3.

This is very strange, I know, but really what Seamus writes is as confusing to me as it is to everyone else.

What would you think if you found out somebody studied this by asking participants to make up a story about something that happened to them during the day between the times of 1:00pm and 6:00pm. Would you be at all surprised to find that the times chosen followed a normal distribution curve peaking between 3:00 and 3:30 and tapering off earlier and later?

 

[Rolfe]

It's whackjob woo. "Statement analysis" has been debunked to hell and back in the Science section.

I followed the link expecting to see something rational, and nearly wet myself when I actually read it.

Rolfe.

 

[Diocletus]

This is maybe the most baffling part of the video. What are those markers for? Aren't they used in a "whole scene" picture of an undisturbed crime scene, to show where each item was originally found? What meaning does this detail of the comedy act have in the context of the way this item was presented as evidence?

It's a game, like golf, with the markers controlling the scoring. What you try to do is throw the evidence around the house in alphabetical order. You can see that the clasp has been to quite a few places in the cottage, because they're already up to "Y". Fore!

 

[Matthew Best]

The good news is that he's sending his analysis to the prosecutors so expect to see it read out in Court very soon. Of course, if the prosecutors foolishly ignore it and shove it straight in the bin, that just proves they've been got to by the dastardly forces of FOA.

 

[Matthew Best]

Or, as Dorothy Parker would say, this Statement Analysis is not something to be tossed aside lightly; it should be thrown with great force!

 

[Diocletus]

Did this change of events happen due to the polizia requesting the DVD?

I'm not sure of the timeline, but I was wondering that exact thing. The "DVD raid" could conceivably have pushed Hellmann over the edge.

Remember that these experts are appointed by the court. In effect, they are an extension of the court. When some wizard in Perugia decides s/he is going to send 8 cops to Rome to "get" a DVD directly from the court's experts, I would think that would be viewed as very aggressive. Why not send a note the Hellmann saying that we need this DVD? They obviously didn't even tell Hellmann that they were sending the cops down there. WTF.

I'll bet Hellmann thought Conti had lost his mind when he called from Rome and said that 8 Perugian cops were there for the DVD. By the time Hellmann confirmed that the cops REALLY WERE there, he was probably thinking that these Perugian prosecutors are batscheiss crazy and I have to pull the plug on this thing. Now.

I'm not sure about Italy, but if you pulled a stunt similar to this in the US, you would be in some serious doodoo. The Perugian folks may very well be in serious doodoo and just finding out about it. Ferraugusto!

 

[komponisto]

Speaking of the clasp...

...that part of Conti-Vecchiotti is now done and up.

You won't believe some of the stuff in this section. (Not to be confused with this one, linked earlier.)

 

[Bruce Fischer]

This suggests to me that he will have the prosecution on a very short leash tomorrow.

Question. If you are the prosecutor or Maresca, what do you do tomorrow if the schedule has been altered to make this the very last session before closing? If this schedule is true, it tells you that Hellmann has slammed the brakes on this case. Do you go after C&V with everything you have and REALLY piss off Hellmann? Or do you tone it down in hopes of keeping his good graces going into closing argument/summation?

Tomorrow is the last hearing before closing arguments that will begin August 27. Hellmann scheduled closing arguments almost 3 weeks before summer break normally ends. I am told that this is unheard of in Italy. I believe Hellmann knows that two innocent people have spent far too long in prison.

 

[Magister]

Tomorrow is the last hearing before closing arguments that will begin August 27. Hellmann scheduled closing arguments almost 3 weeks before summer break normally ends. I am told that this is unheard of in Italy. I believe Hellmann knows that two innocent people have spent far too long in prison.

If this is correct then the appeal is not a de novo trial?
If Judge Hellmann's court does not review the remaining evidence
(eg ToD,computer records et al) then the prosecution could successfully appeal to the court of Cassation ,arguing that proper procedure had not been followed.
The SC could then order a re-trial.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

I have no firm theory, that is why I asked, but haven't read here any reasonable answer yet.

There have been several reasonable answers that you have failed to accept. How about this; please show me what standards that Stefanoni followed. The truth is simple, Stefanoni's work fails to meet the standards of any civilized nation on earth. You can chose any country you like and Stefanoni would fail. You can cherry pick a couple of references out of Conti-Vecchiotti to try and discredit their entire report but it is silly to do so. It is time for you to see the truth. The "mountain" of evidence that you have been talking about for 3 years is gone (never existed). There is nothing left to confirm the convictions of Amanda and Raffaele. Rudy Guede killed Meredith Kercher and it is time for you and your friends to stop the madness, open your eyes, and embrace reality.

We have heard from you and your friends for years now that The United States should shut up and let the Italians take care of this, now that Italians have exposed this injustice once and for all, you attack the Italians. All you have left is Ergon's astrology and some whacky guy that thinks he can analyze statements.

You bought into all the media lies and refused to change position when the truth became clear. Instead of admitting you were wrong and walking away, you and your friends decided to spend your time attacking Amanda Knox and her followers.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

If this is correct then the appeal is not a de novo trial?
If Judge Hellmann's court does not review the remaining evidence
(eg ToD,computer records et al) then the prosecution could successfully appeal to the court of Cassation ,arguing that proper procedure had not been followed.
The SC could then order a re-trial.

You are incorrect. When Hellmann reads the verdict, Amanda will soon be back in Seattle. Hellmann followed procedures correctly. If Massei had the guts to authorize further testing of the DNA, Amanda and Raffaele would have never been convicted in the first place.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

I just realized that the reason that I'm now so interested in this appeal is that I know it could be over any time now.

Any hour now we could hear the words that we've waited to hear for years: "The court has ordered that Amanda and Raffaele are to be freed for lack of sufficient evidence."
I don't want to excite the casual reader. That is only what I want to hear. It's also what I think is possible. Unfortunately, another guilty verdict is also possible, but I'm excited about the possibility of good news.

The words you long to hear are coming soon. It took far too long. Massei failed to protect the innocent. Thankfully Hellmann cleaned up his mess.

 

[Magister]

You are incorrect. When Hellmann reads the verdict, Amanda will soon be back in Seattle. Hellmann followed procedures correctly. If Massei had the guts to authorize further testing of the DNA, Amanda and Raffaele would have never been convicted in the first place.

I don't think you read my post correctly.

I happen to believe AK and RS are innocent.

 

[Mary_H]

It's a game, like golf, with the markers controlling the scoring. What you try to do is throw the evidence around the house in alphabetical order. You can see that the clasp has been to quite a few places in the cottage, because they're already up to "Y". Fore!

You have been extremely funny today, Diocletus.

 

[Draca]

That's what I've been saying about the perverted prosecutions of Perugia.

The more into trivia these arguments go, the more persuasive the guilter arguments become. The guilter arguments asymptotically approach 50% likely as they approach the fringes of what is known and what can be known. Furthermore, they cause the FOA to engage in speculation which diminishes their credibility.

I agree. I think some get caught up on specific issues that they can not move past. Some big - the false accusation; but others small stuff like the ripped bag in the Filomena's room. There are lots of hints of things that could possibly show guilt; but there is a lack of over all scenario to explain how the attack could have happened and include all the bits. I'm not surprised at all that guilt club has not been moved an inch by the CV report. Most still standing have basically decided that they will not change their minds.

 

[Draca]

I'm not sure of the timeline, but I was wondering that exact thing. The "DVD raid" could conceivably have pushed Hellmann over the edge.

Remember that these experts are appointed by the court. In effect, they are an extension of the court. When some wizard in Perugia decides s/he is going to send 8 cops to Rome to "get" a DVD directly from the court's experts, I would think that would be viewed as very aggressive. Why not send a note the Hellmann saying that we need this DVD? They obviously didn't even tell Hellmann that they were sending the cops down there. WTF.

I'll bet Hellmann thought Conti had lost his mind when he called from Rome and said that 8 Perugian cops were there for the DVD. By the time Hellmann confirmed that the cops REALLY WERE there, he was probably thinking that these Perugian prosecutors are batscheiss crazy and I have to pull the plug on this thing. Now.

I'm not sure about Italy, but if you pulled a stunt similar to this in the US, you would be in some serious doodoo. The Perugian folks may very well be in serious doodoo and just finding out about it. Ferraugusto!

Great observation. I bet you are right. Mignini and the Flying Thug Squad is helping Hellmann decide to release them earlier rather than later.

 

[Draca]

The good news is that he's sending his analysis to the prosecutors so expect to see it read out in Court very soon. Of course, if the prosecutors foolishly ignore it and shove it straight in the bin, that just proves they've been got to by the dastardly forces of FOA.

THE FOA strikes again - dum, dumm, dum, dum.


I wonder if Mr. Marriott knows what a legend he is in so many guilters minds? He is probably totally unaware that he is often mentioned in relation to the Knox PR juggernaut.

 

[Draca]

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy (drawing the target after you've fired the shot) is a favourite of the guilters.

As far as they are concerned if you can't replicate a semi-random incident like an irregularly-shaped rock hitting a closed wooden shutter with an unknown amount of spin at an unknown angle, and get exactly the same outcome right down to the final position of the irregularly-shaped rock and the tear in the paper bag, it proves it was all staged.

Whereas they don't need to even try to replicate the zebra hypothesis that the rock was thrown from inside the room to be right. Massei said that was how it was, and that's good enough for them. Who needs ballistics experts or a recreation when you can just have a judge make **** up?

Who would think of staging the bag so it would rip, tip over and have a rock partially in it? Quite genious; or quite random.

I don't think it is impossible that they could stage the crime. A guy on the IIP forum did a great job describing how the staging could have happened; I posted it on JREF a while back. I don't think the prosecution proved that it HAD to have been a staged though. That a cop gave personal testimony that she didn't see anything is meaningless. If they they were looking that carefully they would have taken photos. Seeing how they handled the rest of the cottage I have zero trust in their work.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

I don't think you read my post correctly.

I happen to believe AK and RS are innocent.

Sorry if I misunderstood. I just wanted it to be clear that Hellmann's court decision will stand if they are freed.

 

[spartacus]

Tireless advocates

My sister, Anne Bremner, pointed out all of the problems with the DNA evidence and the failed forensic work highlighted by the independent experts in 2009. For that she was greeted by an attempt at disbarment in the State of Washington, as well as multiple attempts at smearing of character. I personally have had death threats and threats to go to my employer for writing about this case. Others have lost their jobs. I wonder what people who have gone to such extremes would think if they stopped to consider the possibility that Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito are innocent?

Doug Bremner