"Not intended as a factual statement", Redux.

[Piscivore]

First McCain said: "There is substantial evidence that some of these fires have been caused by people who have crossed our border illegally... The answer to that part of the problem is to get a secure border."

Oops! He really meant:
“Arizona is currently facing the worst wildfire season in its history. After touring the devastation in eastern Arizona, we would like to express our gratitude to the brave firefighters, first responders, and public lands personnel who have gone above and beyond the call of duty to preserve communities, homes, and our natural habitats.

“During our tour of the damaged areas caused by the Wallow Fire on Saturday, we were briefed by senior Forest Service officials, one of whom informed us that some wildfires in Arizona (across our southern border) are regrettably caused by drug smugglers and illegal immigrants. This statement is consistent with what we’ve been hearing for years, as well as testimony by the Forest Service and media reports dating back as far as 2006.

“While Arizonans continue to face the enormous challenges related to these wildfires, it’s unfortunate that some are inserting their political agenda into this tragedy.”

Try and read that last sentence again, and marvel that he can say it with a straight face.

 

[Unabogie]

Ha! I thought you'd be referring to this.

McKinsey responds to criticism of their health care reform law study: "The survey was not intended as a predictive economic analysis of the impact of the Affordable Care Act." Read more here.

Again, not intended to be an actual study and predict things and stuff.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Try and read that last sentence again, and marvel that he can say it with a straight face.

Isn't this the same guy who claimed Sarah Palin knows more about energy than anyone in the country? If he can pull that one off without cracking up, he can pretty much say anything with a straight face.

 

[Grizzly Adams]

Well if what he originally said is true and substantiated by verifiable facts, wouldn't it seem like those who are jumping on his back for saying it are inserting their own political agenda?

 

[Monketi Ghost]

I can't believe how often he says things only to say the exact opposite later on.

 

[Travis]

How did I figure that the crazy right wing in Arizona would find some way to blame the wildfires on a lack of landmines and acid moats on the border? I shudder what they would contemplate doing to anyone even vaguely Latino looking if the state were hit by a locust swarm.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Well if what he originally said is true and substantiated by verifiable facts, wouldn't it seem like those who are jumping on his back for saying it are inserting their own political agenda?

He said "There is substantial evidence" which is simply not true. * So you're asking if these criticisms would be unfair if the facts were the opposite of what they are?

*ETA: And when confronted with the facts, he criticized people for politicizing these fires, which is exactly what he was doing with his false statement. So, are you asking whether we would be guilty of doing exactly what he did and what he preached against if he hadn't in fact been guilty of doing it himself?

 

[Biscuit]

The whole "illegals did it!" meme is running around my coffee shop this morning (in Tucson). The only thing I have to say about it is this.

The vast majority of wild fires are not started by illegal immigrants or drug runners.

So what is the purpose of making a stink about the possibility that this one was?

 

[Grizzly Adams]

I shudder what they would contemplate doing to anyone even vaguely Latino looking if the state were hit by a locust swarm.

Do you? Do you really?

Yeah, you probably do.

 

[Grizzly Adams]

He said "There is substantial evidence" which is simply not true. * So you're asking if these criticisms would be unfair if the facts were the opposite of what they are?

He stated Forest Service people told him this and this has been an issue since 2006.

Do you have some evidence that contradicts the Forest Service?

 

[BenBurch]

Have any illegals been arrested for arson based on the fires?

If not, you can GUESS about how they started, but you cannot say you know.

BUT, we can say that Californians start Arizona wildfires;

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/06/19/arizona-wildfire-prompts-evacuations-hotel-homes-flagstaff/

What is that, you say?

Too broad a brush?

The actions of one Californian do not mean that all Californians are arsonists?

Hmmm?

 

[Biscuit]

He stated Forest Service people told him this and this has been an issue since 2006.

Do you have some evidence that contradicts the Forest Service?

Wild fires have been an issue long before 2006 and the nationality of their creators has never prompted a senator to speak. I was much more concerned by the fact that the rodeo fire had been started by a fire fighter but I don't recall any senators talking about that.

Further more I doubt the person who started the fire did it on purpose or with malice.

Finally I do a fair share of camping and four wheeling. I spend a lot of time outdoors in S. AZ. Just a few weeks ago we came across a group of guys and girls in their early 20 bbq'ing on a charcoal webber. When we came back they had just dumped the coals into the brush and left. Their site was littered and about to start a major fire. Some rangers came along and put it out. Point being I am not concerned about the fire danger border crossers may or may not pose. There is a much larger threat built into our community.

When McCain and others should be putting their resources to helping the victims they are instead fueling the fire of racial tension in our state through speculative accusations. Utterly pointless.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I thought the fires, like the earthquakes, were caused by ACORN death panels committing voter fraud against unborn babies? Lazy death panels, contracting out to illegal aliens! I bet they paid them under the table, too, so no penny of tax was paid for all those ER visits they make to get our quality healthcare!

 

[hgc]

The most stupidest part is:

The answer to that part of the problem is to get a secure border.

Secure borders! Cures an amazing array of ailments: cholera, neuralgia, epilepsy, scarlet fever, forest fires.

Bozo.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

He stated Forest Service people told him this and this has been an issue since 2006.

"There is substantial evidence that some of these fires have been caused by people who have crossed our border illegally," McCain, R-Ariz., said during a news conference in Springerville on Saturday, apparently referring to blazes in southern Arizona. "The answer to that part of the problem is to get a secure border."

Do you have some evidence that contradicts the Forest Service?

If he had said what you claim he said, I wouldn't complain. But relying on something some guys from the Forestry Service said to him years ago is not at all "substantial evidence" that the fires right now were caused by illegal immigrants. In fact, my guess is that the Forestry Service guys he's talking about (unnamed and worthless if it's meant to be an argument by authority) have credentials to be an authority to cite as evidence that the fires were started by illegal immigrants. As such, it would be the fallacy of appeal to misleading authority.

But the quote we're discussing is the one that was quoted in the OP and again here.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Wild fires have been an issue long before 2006 and the nationality of their creators has never prompted a senator to speak.

Yep, and. . . .

Even if the unnamed Forestry Service guys actually said this to McCain (it's just hearsay, right?), and even if they were talking about this year's fires, and even if they were trained in forensic analysis of the fires to be able to determine the causes of this year's fires, there is no way in hell that that forensic expertise can tell them the immigration status of anyone who might have caused a wild fire.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Secure borders! Cures an amazing array of ailments: cholera, neuralgia, epilepsy, scarlet fever, forest fires.

Too bad it doesn't cure the pathological tendency to scapegoat!

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Do you have some evidence that contradicts the Forest Service?

Do you?

When asked whether illegal immigrants may have played a role in the Wallow Fire, Tom Berglund, a Forest Service spokesman, said, "Absolutely not, according to what I've been told."

 

[Newtons Bit]

Yep, and. . . .

Even if the unnamed Forestry Service guys actually said this to McCain (it's just hearsay, right?), and even if they were talking about this year's fires, and even if they were trained in forensic analysis of the fires to be able to determine the causes of this year's fires, there is no way in hell that that forensic expertise can tell them the immigration status of anyone who might have caused a wild fire.

Uh, yes, there are lots of ways. Most notably by catching the people who started them. The second most obvious way would be to look at any trash around the fire source. Mexican consumer goods left around the fire would be a good indicator. The most obvious way would be to keep tabs on where the fire started and what level of tourists/campers are in the area vs. number of illegals. That's a statistical basis, but it's pretty easy to infer conclusions.

 

[stokes234]

Uh, yes, there are lots of ways. Most notably by catching the people who started them. The second most obvious way would be to look at any trash around the fire source. Mexican consumer goods left around the fire would be a good indicator. The most obvious way would be to keep tabs on where the fire started and what level of tourists/campers are in the area vs. number of illegals. That's a statistical basis, but it's pretty easy to infer conclusions.

You're right that it's going to be possible in some circumstances, but until anyone wades in with any actual evidence of the above, it's a fairly useless correction.