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Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Misadventures in forensic science

Danceme and lionking,

I believe something very different from what you are saying. I think that the majority of ILE thinks that they are guilty, as opposed to being scared and are not concerned about dotting every i and crossing every t under the circumstances. I also think that there is also a generous dollop of incompetence. Here are some links that I found helpful in understanding investigator bias:
Tarnish on the Gold Standard
CSI for real: How to Improve Forensic Science
Forensic Misadventures

Just tonight I contributed to a thread in which the forensic scientist misidentified the victim’s hair with the alleged perpetrator. How that is possible given that a reference hair should have been available I do not know.
 
Just show me the actual proof that he is guilty.

I predict Alt-F4 will not be providing this

On the other hand Alt-F4 will happily type paragraph after paragraph of unrelated stuff, but will continue to evade this very fundamental, underlying issue.

Honestly, this type of behavior is becoming shameful for this forum. This is the sort of forum where this kind of thing might happen once in a while, but not page after page after page.

If there's a way to curtail it, I'm all ears, maybe an ignore list of some sort
 
cartwheels and confessions

Personally I'd say the negative view (of those who hold AK and RS innocent) was a result of the inability to properly refute the then available evidence in the very first thread and the apparent willingness to embrace any and all (strange) theories as long as it supported innocence.

Take for example the title of the original thread. Clearly AK wasn't judged guilty just because of a cartwheel but this idea was rigorously defended by a couple of posters.
Amazer,

My recollection/interpretation is that the OP did not take the title literally herself. My recollection is also that when the OP tried to discuss things like false confessions, she got cartwheel jokes for her trouble. Incidently, that is why TCS got a rather peevish reply from me on the occasion of one of his many cartwheel references. If the pro-guilt evidence was so strong in first thread, why is it not strong enough now?
EDT
My documented position as of early 2010 was that Amanda did cartwheels and or other gymnastics at the behest of someone from ILE, as per her testimony and as reported in Perugia-Shock. That is essentially my present position. I am not sure why I neglected this in my answer to TCS, but such details do not seem to concern him.
 
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Personally I'd say the negative view (of those who hold AK and RS innocent) was a result of the inability to properly refute the then available evidence in the very first thread and the apparent willingness to embrace any and all (strange) theories as long as it supported innocence.

Take for example the title of the original thread. Clearly AK wasn't judged guilty just because of a cartwheel but this idea was rigorously defended by a couple of posters.


But its even worse than that.

Recently a poster claimed for the eleventyseventh time that the cartwheels never occurred and posted at great length on this issue.

Now the cartwheels are inconsequential but I suggest that the relentless mendacity (or amnesia) on this simple issue (it was the original thread title after all :)) is exemplary of the Foaker arguments as a whole.

ETA The mendacious arguments continue apparently.
 
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I'm sick of being misrepresented. I didn't come up with the idea of a conspiracy. People here who insist on deliberate misconduct by police and forensic scientists are the ones who are proposing a conspiracy of silence (at least), whether they like it or not. Some have been honest enough to say that two dozen would be involved in this conspiracy. I don't buy it, sorry.

I might have to adjust that figure, lionking. I remembered that 43 police officers were honored for their investigation of the case.

One knowledgeable blogger put it this way: "The now vice-questore aggiunto Marco Chiacchiera, who coordinated the operations; the sostituto commissario Monica Napoleoni, the ispettore capo Rita Ficarra, the assistente capo Lorena Zugarini, who cropped the signature of Raffaele and Amanda; the sovrintendente Stefano Gubbiotti who lied in court about the call to 112, Stefano Buratti, Stefano Sisani, Andrea Cardaioli, Davide Dominici, Mirko Gregori… the whole questura was awarded!"

Whether or not it can be called a conspiracy is contingent on how much each participant knew. We can be generous and say most of them did not know much. Rolfe says it very well: "Most of these miscarriages of justice, and this one is pretty boilerplate in that respect, are about confirmation bias and group-think."
 
Yes, I agree. We have heard a gazillion times that police are scared for their jobs so support Mignini's theory, forensic scientists (from Rome even) are scared for their job so support Mignini, judges won't dare go against their fellow colleagues so support Mignini, and so on, and so on. This may not be exactly defined as a conspiracy theory but it's something resembling one.

It doesn't matter. The theory that Rudy Guede acted alone is not a conspiracy theory and how the court reached the wrong conclusion about this crime is really quite irrelevant in the end. For them to be wrong doesn't require a conspiracy theory. Really simple.
 
Danceme and lionking,

I believe something very different from what you are saying. I think that the majority of ILE thinks that they are guilty, as opposed to being scared and are not concerned about dotting every i and crossing every t under the circumstances. I also think that there is also a generous dollop of incompetence. Here are some links that I found helpful in understanding investigator bias:
Tarnish on the Gold Standard
CSI for real: How to Improve Forensic Science
Forensic Misadventures

Just tonight I contributed to a thread in which the forensic scientist misidentified the victim’s hair with the alleged perpetrator. How that is possible given that a reference hair should have been available I do not know.
That's the way I always saw it too. They really believed they were guilty.
 
No, I don't know. I think some of it is just a meme perpetrated by the regular posters who like to sneer at anyone who thinks that a miscarriage of justice might have happened. Also, the poster who started the original "cartwheel" thread isn't terribly well-regarded by rather a lot of people, of whom I am one as it happens.<snip>

I wanted to mention this, too, and I see that Halides also picked up on it. I've shared only one or two threads with Ginger and I thought she was brilliant. I found nothing offensive about her, but other posters seemed to come from miles around to express resentment, abuse her and argue with her about comments she had made on completely different subjects.

Of course the original cartwheel post was intended to be figurative, not literal. JREF should give Ginger some kind of award for initiating a thread that has brought over a million additional views to the site.
 
It doesn't matter. The theory that Rudy Guede acted alone is not a conspiracy theory and how the court reached the wrong conclusion about this crime is really quite irrelevant in the end. For them to be wrong doesn't require a conspiracy theory. Really simple.

The lone wolf theory is not the "conspiracy theory" Paninaro. We were referring to the theory that just about everyone involved on the prosecution side were only going along with the belief in guilt of Amanda and Raffaele to either protect their jobs or save face, and that all the evidence was basically a result of gross incompetence or it was simply deliberately constructed.
 
The Skype call

R. Yes but in fact, I'm just telling you we did...oral stuff. No, no penetration, because I didn't have a condom, we didn't do anything. And so it's all crap according to me that they said they found my...sperm...male sperm. Then I, that... it's not mine because we didn't do anything....


He mentions the things he know the police will blame him for. The missing money (someone else stole them; maybe Amanda), the broken window (wasn't me, wasn't there), the scream (that he heard from the bathroom), the wounds on his hands (from when he confronted the unknown intruder) and so on and so forth.
.

I agree Rudy mentioned almost everything he could be blamed for but I wonder why he denies the sperm. Perhaps it really isn't a sperm stain after all. Rudy says they did oral stuff, he could have left his sperm that way and said it could possibly be his yet he denies it's his.

Btw, where did you find the translation? I checked pmf earlier when it first came up but only found a partial version, much less than this.
 
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Amazer,

My recollection/interpretation is that the OP did not take the title literally herself. My recollection is also that when the OP tried to discuss things like false confessions, she got cartwheel jokes for her trouble. Incidently, that is why TCS got a rather peevish reply from me on the occasion of one of his many cartwheel references. If the pro-guilt evidence was so strong in first thread, why is it not strong enough now?

Halides1,

I'd say that the evidence for guilt seemed stronger in the first thread because those favoring innocence weren't bringing the proper evidence to counter it.

I actually think that your side has since then made admirable progress with regard to the TOD. I'm curious to see how this will play in court.

I'm on the fence with regard to the DNA evidence. I recognize that Steffanoni used a novel method with regard to the LCN testing but lack the expertise to properly evaluate the impact that this might have had. As such I'm eagerly awaiting the results from the court appointed independent experts.
 
I predict Alt-F4 will not be providing this

On the other hand Alt-F4 will happily type paragraph after paragraph of unrelated stuff, but will continue to evade this very fundamental, underlying issue.

Honestly, this type of behavior is becoming shameful for this forum. This is the sort of forum where this kind of thing might happen once in a while, but not page after page after page.

If there's a way to curtail it, I'm all ears, maybe an ignore list of some sort


You could always just ignore posters who you feel add nothing of value.

Works for me :)
 
Again, I've never said it. Of course, you can believe whatever you think I have alluded to.

Once again, this is patent nonsense.

Rude, especially coming from an administrator and from someone who opinions I often thought were great when we were both posting on the 9/11 conspiracy threads years ago. Everything else you have said in your post is nothing other than a demand that I agree with you.

There's nothing at all rude about asking someone to focus on the subject matter at hand instead of going off on tangents when they don't like being confronted with their own words. And I post here as a member, just like you, so why are you again going off on yet another non-sequitur and silly tangent while simultaneously trying to avoid your own words?

Your assertion that I am demanding that you agree with me is patently ridiculous. I've asked you to support your repeated insinuations and your repeated assertions with evidence to support them but it appears from your posts that you are decidedly unable and unwilling to do so. Will you start any time soon?

How about starting with explaining what it is about the publicly available evidence, which you've never seen personally, of course, that led you to believe so strongly in the guilt of Ms. Knox and Mr. Sollecito? Even leaving aside the "secret" evidence to which you keep alluding.
 
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Halides1,

I actually think that your side has since then made admirable progress with regard to the TOD. I'm curious to see how this will play in court.

.

I thought this was a terrific post.

By the way, there's one very interesting part of Guede's Skype conversation, where he is talking about Meredith screaming. He describes the scream taking place at " around 9.20, 9.30". I believe that he must have thought that others might have heard the scream, which is why needed to place it into his narrative. In other words, if there had been somebody nearby who had heard a scream at "9.20-9.30", Guede would be able to say that this tallied with his version of events.

I believe that Guede therefore knows full well when Meredith died, and that it was a lot closer to 9pm than 10pm. This of course tallies completely with Meredith being confronted very shortly after she returned to the cottage at around 8.55pm, with the fatal stabbing occurring at some time between 9.05pm and 9.30pm.


One thing that is certain in this case is that Rudy knows every detail about the murder. He would have at the least a very good idea of the approximate murder time. If he comes up with a time for the scream it's almost impossiuble for him to lie about it. He has no reason to, there's nothing to gain.
His version in relation to this will be accurate.
 
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Most of the time, the establishment, mainstream view is correct. Man really did land on the moon. Homoeopathy really is just sugar pills. Bigfoot doesn't exist. Oswald shot JFK. Al Qaida flew some planes into some buildings. And so on.

But in the case of miscarriages of justice, the establishment is wrong. I think some people have become so habituated to supporting the establishment view by default, and believing it to be the "sceptical" position, that they can't tell the difference. A bit like the pro-vaccination posters who will rip into anyone who highlights a genuine case of an adverse reaction to a vaccine.

Most of us understand why homeopathy is woo. The same holds for alien abductions, dowsing, 9/11 no planes conspiracy theories and other bunk commonly discussed here on JREF.

A bigger challenge for a skeptic is when the establishment doesn't understand the science. In the field of psychology there are disconnects between what is generally believed and what science has proven. The public believes that experts can tell if someone is lying by looking for behavioral clues, but science has shown it's about as reliable as dowsing. The public doesn't know that false memories are rather easy to produce. Or understand why eyewitness accounts are considered one of the least reliable forms of evidence.
 
I'm sick of being misrepresented. I didn't come up with the idea of a conspiracy. People here who insist on deliberate misconduct by police and forensic scientists are the ones who are proposing a conspiracy of silence (at least), whether they like it or not. Some have been honest enough to say that two dozen would be involved in this conspiracy. I don't buy it, sorry.

My guess is they don't come forward because it would be irrational from their standpoint to do so.

Why should they betray the men and women they work with just about every day? Some might have saved their lives, some might have covered their asses when they needed it, everyone makes mistakes. No one's going to find out as long as no one tells, hell they can make money off the deal for just staying silent!

Lionking, your argument is irrational. They have nothing to gain but widespread scorn for coming forward, and everything to lose if they do. How do you suppose cops fare in prison in Italy?

You want them to risk that to tell the truth when it may not even be believed, all for the sake of someone that they're either convinced is a murderess, or at least probably is, or even if she's not they've been told and have been telling people she's worthless scum for more than three years now. Raffaele, the smart computer guy, with money? From the generally impoverished place where they talk funny? They've been telling people he's a real sicko too, they're two true degenerates, you might have seen in the Mail, they weren't shy about it.

This wasn't any type of frame up Lionking, they didn't screw up this badly on purpose either. They made mistakes, minor things perhaps to them, and some of them might have helped things along a little, but it's not like any of them deliberately set out to ruin Raffaele and Amanda's life, it just kinda worked out that way. :p

Here's something I wrote elsewhere on what I suspect might have happened to begin this tragic sequence of events. At the beginning I bet they thought they were doing everything right, they'd found their murderers! It's just everything they were basing it on was bogus, misinterpreted or simply coincidence.

As badly as they bungled it I do believe they thought they had legitimate reasons to be suspicious. I can't help but think this starts out as a tragedy of circumstance and error. Go through the sequence of events and consider what they might have been thinking:

First that statistics suggest that in Italy if someone is murdered it is someone they know, and oftentimes lives with them. Mind you that usually means it's someone that they can't just escape from by moving out like a roommate, but a family member that they can't just 'leave behind.' However as we've learned these aren't the sharpest tools in the shed, odds are they'd just go with that without taking into account what those statistics generally mean.

Thus that, and as I recall there were two recent crimes that were staged break-ins to cover it up, means they look at Rudy's break-in suspiciously, coming to the early assumption that it's probably 'staged.' They've been with Amanda the rest of the week, and Giobbi starts to get his moronic assumptions about her behavior. They start keying in on her, the wiretaps etc.

At the same time they've indications Patrick might have been involved, one of the first things they did was have the girls give lists of all the men who might have known Meredith. At this point they've had time to go through that list, and they have that 'woolly black hair' they found, they probably can figure Patrick should be working the night of the murder, but instead if they've gotten the phone records it looks like he's not at Le Chic but the vicinity of the cottage, as early press reports indicate they'd say.

They find out Amanda hasn't told them about the test message with Patrick! It implies a definite future meeting, which just so happens to be right before the real time of death about 9:00PM, shortly after Meredith is seen alive for the last time. Adding it all up, it does sound suspicious, doesn't it?

So they set up a breaking party, they've twelve extra cops on duty, they summon Raffaele and Amanda. They know her mother is coming in the next day because of the wiretaps. They put it to the stoned Raffaele and they 'drop him like third period French' and he gives them what they want, an 'admission' that Amanda wasn't with him from 9-1 AM, even if it doesn't square with everything else--which might be even more reason to be suspicious. Plus they get him to say he called the caribinieri after the postal police arrive.

Thus they go into that room with Amanda, and they think she's a liar for numerous reasons. That she 'left' Raffaele right about the time of the murder, that she's been 'hiding' the text message indicating a definite future meeting with Patrick, and they know the both of them were playing with mops the morning/afternoon of the murder discovery, and she's saying was at the crime scene taking a shower and not noticing the murder

That's why they don't let up, why they just keep after her, they really think she's the murderer and they treat her like one, even though it's mainly just incompetence and misunderstandings behind it. So they put the screws to her until she starts babbling about flashes and freaks out when they start whupping her. It doesn't make any sense, it doesn't match anything, but with all this 'evidence' they think they have their murderers!

Even better, Raffaele's shoe treads seem to match the ones at the scene, everything is just falling perfectly into place! They go after her again to try to get more later on once Mignini is called down. It's all nonsense, but they must figure they'll get something out of Patrick , and even if not the forensics will back their brilliant capture of these diabolical murderers!

However, they'll eventually realize their 'confession' really is garbage, they went and arrested Patrick on nonsense, and the tapes will obviously show them pushing Amanda for who she texted back to, thus they can never be seen. Amanda is writing her note recanting her 'confession,' as well, so naturally they think she's just 'lying' some more. Therefore they go for the 'greater good' argument to save their own meaty backsides and defame her publicly as they think she is privately. They can't really produce their reasons for thinking she's a liar being as it will make them look stupid, so they just blame it all on her, being as to them she must have manipulated the whole thing to make them look bad! :P
 
I agree Rudy mentioned almost everything he could be blamed for but I wonder why he denies the sperm. Perhaps it really isn't a sperm stain after all. Rudy says they did oral stuff, he could have left his sperm that way and said it could possibly be his yet he denies it's his.

Btw, where did you find the translation? I checked pmf earlier when it first came up but only found a partial version, much less than this.

He said he translated it himself on a previous page. I too have often wondered why he'd deny that, when he'd certainly expect they'd be able to test it and find out.

Actually I tend to believe the police on this one, I think they know it's the boyfriend's and didn't want to embarrass anyone. They also probably didn't want the defense to be able to say there was that much more potentially suspicious DNA of him at the scene of a sex-murder than there ever was of Raffaele or Amanda...
 
My guess is they don't come forward because it would be irrational from their standpoint to do so.

Why should they betray the men and women they work with just about every day? Some might have saved their lives, some might have covered their asses when they needed it, everyone makes mistakes. No one's going to find out as long as no one tells, hell they can make money off the deal for just staying silent!

Lionking, your argument is irrational. They have nothing to gain but widespread scorn for coming forward, and everything to lose if they do. How do you suppose cops fare in prison in Italy?


Are you seriously suggesting that police whistleblowers end up in prison in Italy? You do know that there are whistleblower protection laws there? Unless you have evidence of this ridiculous assertion, you should withdraw it.

See, I believe that the majority of police take their oath seriously, and that any conspiracy of silence, which would be necessary to keep this widespread wrongdoing covered up, would have been exposed long before now.

The innocentisti narrative falls over without a conspiracy of silence, at the very least.
 
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