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2011 Arctic Sea Ice Thread

Also added is the actual computed volume this anomaly refers to, and you can see how little we are going to have left if the deflection from mean continues as it is going;
 

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BenBurch said:
Also added is the actual computed volume this anomaly refers to, and you can see how little we are going to have left if the deflection from mean continues as it is going;
Click to expand...

Just eye-balling it (which one should never do and expect precision), and assuming a steady decline of the overall trend at the same rate as illustrated in the 2007 and partial 2011 track (which is likewise unwise), another 4 year period should have these lines edging the 0. Not that this assessment is in anyway definitive, but it does support the idea that a near future ice-free arctic sea, at least for some period during the summer, is not unreasonable,...given the current trending.
 
BenBurch said:
Last year we got down to around 5.

ETA: Looking at the graph, actually, around 3.
Click to expand...

True enough, but even 5(000 and I'm assuming this is km3, as we are talking volume) or 1 is still a significant volume of ice. Heck, a few hundred cubic kilometers of ice is a lot of ice in most individual perceptions. (more than I'd have enough rum to properly sterilize!) ;)

But in terms of climate and large scale effects, it's definitely in the range where run away summer collapse in the near-term future is a reasonable consideration.
 
Seems to me the flow through the entire archipelago must be increasing rapidly now bringing Pacific heat to the Arctic.
Got a be a major factor.

Wonder where ocean temp and currents info might be found.
 
One note, the new model system refines the accuracy of PIOMAS too, and you will see smaller anomalies in the new data. As we get closer and closer to zero it should be possible for the model to be improved further.
 
BenBurch said:
One note, the new model system refines the accuracy of PIOMAS too, and you will see smaller anomalies in the new data. As we get closer and closer to zero it should be possible for the model to be improved further.
Click to expand...

It will be redundant pretty soon. None in summer and not much in winter doesn't call for great sophistication.

The cruel truth about ice-dynamics is that we'll have an excellent understanding of it when it really doesn't matter anymore, at least not in the world we live in. The Greenland and Antarctic ice-caps will be all that's left (what's left of them, anyway).
 
BTW, note the near vertical plunge in the PIOMAS anomaly this year, a repeat of last. If the anomaly approaches the magnitude of last year's there will be very little ice left.

When that happens look for unexpected dynamics involving rain. That is my bet for the wildcard here.
 
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