On the question of the change (or not) in the earth's momentum, there are two distinctions that must be made: that between a closed system and an open system, and that between an inertial reference frame and a noninertial reference frame.
Conservation of momentum does not hold in an open system, even with respect to an inertial reference frame, and it does not hold with respect to a noninertial reference frame, even in a closed system.
profpangloss wants to use a reference frame in which the earth is, and remains, stationary, and he wants to consider this reference frame to be practically inertial, that is, he wants to ignore the very small change in the earth's velocity. We can do this, provided we consider the earth to be external to our system. So our system consists of the cart and the air alone, but not the earth. I think this also accords with profpangloss's intuition. So far, so good. But we cannot ignore the fact that the earth exerts a force on the cart. This force acts on our system from outside it. Therefore, our system is not closed, and the momentum of our system is not conserved, but rather changes in response to the external force on it.
On the other hand, if we want momentum to be conserved, we need to consider a closed system, i.e., a system that is free from external forces. We want the cart to be part of our system, and the cart experiences a force from the earth, so the earth must be part of our system too. If we include the earth in our system, along with the cart and air, the system is closed and momentum is conserved. But, if we do things this way, we cannot treat the earth as absolutely stationary. Rather, we must choose a reference frame which is more nearly inertial than even the earth, and allow the momentum of the earth to change, with respect to this reference frame, in response to the force of the cart on the earth.