Is the Arab Spring Sprung?

[andyandy]

I'm interested in how much people think the region will change following the recent upheavals....

Just some general cynicisms:

Bahrain and the other oil states - no real change (thanks to Saudi troops et al)

Libya - notional changes with the Colonel remaining in power (i guess we'll wait to see the impact of the UN resolution....)

Egypt and Tunisia? How will upcoming elections affect society? We all know democracy is more than just elections (eg free media, apolitical army, judiciary independent of political influence, non-corrupt police etc etc) - what is the situation in these countries and how will this impact on what happens later this year?

 

[Virus]

Without liberalism, they're going to fail.

 

[stilicho]

I'm interested in how much people think the region will change following the recent upheavals....

Just some general cynicisms:

Bahrain and the other oil states - no real change (thanks to Saudi troops et al)

Libya - notional changes with the Colonel remaining in power (i guess we'll wait to see the impact of the UN resolution....)

Egypt and Tunisia? How will upcoming elections affect society? We all know democracy is more than just elections (eg free media, apolitical army, judiciary independent of political influence, non-corrupt police etc etc) - what is the situation in these countries and how will this impact on what happens later this year?

I'd say stay tuned. I watched an extensive interview with Netanyahu last night and he explained that this thing didn't start in Tunisia. He said it started before that, in Teheran, among millions of youths there disaffected with the regime.

This is not going to finish soon nor necessarily in our best interests. However, the facts are that formerly oppressed peoples in Eastern Europe are now thriving under democratic and cooperative systems. Can this be exported to the Arab world?

 

[stilicho]

(i guess we'll wait to see the impact of the UN resolution....)

Oh, by the way, I think you really meant American air power. UN resolutions are fun in their own way but essentially meaningless. American air power, on the other hand, has certain obligations that arrive with the deliverables.

 

[geni]

Oh, by the way, I think you really meant American air power. UN resolutions are fun in their own way but essentially meaningless. American air power, on the other hand, has certain obligations that arrive with the deliverables.

Not really. Sarkozy has some poltical ground to make up and an airforce with not much else to do (chad has gone quiet and the requirements of ivory coast are limited). With fairly nearby bases availible France could do it alone. With a little help from the UK and perhaps the other arab states france could and probably would do it without the US.

When not tied down by other commitments mid level powers can do significant damage.

 

[geni]

I'd say stay tuned. I watched an extensive interview with Netanyahu last night and he explained that this thing didn't start in Tunisia. He said it started before that, in Teheran, among millions of youths there disaffected with the regime.

Doubful. The long break between the two sets of actions and the two ethnic groups involved don't get on to well.

By comparison other protests followed on the heals of Tunisia fast. It's true that Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation looks like too neat a starting point but it really does seem to have begun there. Sure something else would have set things off sooner or later but Bouazizi does appear to to be the guy that started it.

One factor we don't know about was how good Ben Ali's health was before the protests. His very rapid decline afterwards looks extremely suspicious. If Ben Ali hadn't fallen the protests would likely have ended there. Did he fall simply because he wasn't well enough to make a credible leader to the inner circle?

 

[DanishDynamite]

Not really. Sarkozy has some poltical ground to make up and an airforce with not much else to do (chad has gone quiet and the requirements of ivory coast are limited). With fairly nearby bases availible France could do it alone. With a little help from the UK and perhaps the other arab states france could and probably would do it without the US.

When not tied down by other commitments mid level powers can do significant damage.

Indeed. It was quite interesting to see on Al-Jazeera how French flags were popping up in Benghazi after the news of the UN resolution was announced. A Danish reporter in Benghazi (reporting on Danish TV) was surrounded by happy waving Libyans, some of whom had learned enough French to shout "Merci Beaucoup!".

BTW, Denmark is sending 6 F-16's and a crew of 120 to support the No-fly zone.

 

[quixotecoyote]

Without liberalism, they're going to fail.

I know exactly what you mean by that, but seeing you post it still made me

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I'd say without secularism, they're going to fail. I'm cautiously pessimistic. It seems that there are movements/sentiments for secular democracy, but theocracy seems to have deep roots in these countries.

 

[Virus]

I'd say without secularism, they're going to fail. I'm cautiously pessimistic. It seems that there are movements/sentiments for secular democracy, but theocracy seems to have deep roots in these countries.

Secularism is a part of liberalism. Separating the mosque from a corrupt state staffed with the president's extended family isn't going to help much.

 

[Orphia Nay]

I'd say without secularism, they're going to fail. I'm cautiously pessimistic. It seems that there are movements/sentiments for secular democracy, but theocracy seems to have deep roots in these countries.

Salman Rushdie: “This could be the moment as important as the fall of Communism – the moment these countries construct modern states..."

“This is not a religious revolution — it’s a secular revolution…. I think what this is showing a whole generation of young people across the Muslim world is that al-Qaeda is bankrupt..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCeQVFNrtTs



I hope he's right.

 

[McHrozni]

I'm interested in how much people think the region will change following the recent upheavals....

Just some general cynicisms:

Bahrain and the other oil states - no real change (thanks to Saudi troops et al)

Libya - notional changes with the Colonel remaining in power (i guess we'll wait to see the impact of the UN resolution....)

Egypt and Tunisia? How will upcoming elections affect society? We all know democracy is more than just elections (eg free media, apolitical army, judiciary independent of political influence, non-corrupt police etc etc) - what is the situation in these countries and how will this impact on what happens later this year?

On the upside, several Arab states did pass some meaningful reform, forced some resignations or such.
On the downside, most of those reforms fell well short of what would be desirable.

This could be a blip on the radar or a sign of more changes in their society. I would say that what happens in Egypt and Tunisia will be of great importance. Both countries are wide open for significant changes. Egypt is important enough to pull the rest of the Arab world behind it, if it changes from autocracy to (some form of) democracy. That, however, is far from certain, it is entirely plausible that all we'll see will be a few new faces. In that case I don't expect this to be anything more than a blip.

McHrozni

 

[stilicho]

Doubful. The long break between the two sets of actions and the two ethnic groups involved don't get on to well.

By comparison other protests followed on the heals of Tunisia fast. It's true that Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation looks like too neat a starting point but it really does seem to have begun there. Sure something else would have set things off sooner or later but Bouazizi does appear to to be the guy that started it.

One factor we don't know about was how good Ben Ali's health was before the protests. His very rapid decline afterwards looks extremely suspicious. If Ben Ali hadn't fallen the protests would likely have ended there. Did he fall simply because he wasn't well enough to make a credible leader to the inner circle?

We see the stuff that our media brings us. Like him or not, Netanyahu probably has a better comprehension of politics in that area of the world than you or I do. He did not specify that particular act that you underlined and I think that's because he recognises that there is a greater sense of discontent among a fresh generation of Middle Eastern stakeholders.

He also explained that virtually the same kind of unrest had been found in Lebanon prior to the ouster of Ben Ali. There's probably more than that but they weren't successful. (Netanyahu couldn't get into that great detail for many obvious reasons.) But the jails in the Islamic world are packed to the gills with political prisoners.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc applies here too. There is not necessarily a direct connection between Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya. There is also a will to rule that sometimes escapes those in their autumn years.

 

[egslim]

Like him or not, Netanyahu probably has a better comprehension of politics in that area of the world than you or I do.

As an international politician, he also has a vested interest in lying through his teeth if it gains him some political advantage.

And for obvious reasons Netanyahu wants to move the world's focus from Tunesia/Libya/Egypt to Iran.

 

[Monketi Ghost]

My wife is from Jordan.

She says most Arabic cultures are conservative, and resistant to change by nature.

They haven't had lots of time to play with Western style democracy, and don't trust it much.

She predicts little change. One strongman for another is our bet, maybe after a lull.

 

[geni]

We see the stuff that our media brings us. Like him or not, Netanyahu probably has a better comprehension of politics in that area of the world than you or I do.

He also has what is called in the trade an agenda. Reality is of secondary importance.

He did not specify that particular act that you underlined and I think that's because he recognises that there is a greater sense of discontent among a fresh generation of Middle Eastern stakeholders.

No he didn't specify it because it doesn't fit the nativative he's trying to push.

He also explained that virtually the same kind of unrest had been found in Lebanon prior to the ouster of Ben Ali. There's probably more than that but they weren't successful.

Lebanon is unusal. It doesn't have the long standing leaders or ruling families in charge. Whats been going on there is more hezbollah vs anyone who wanted to oppose them

(Netanyahu couldn't get into that great detail for many obvious reasons.) But the jails in the Islamic world are packed to the gills with political prisoners.

Ah the islamic world. Hoping to bring Iran into it agin. This isn't Islamic it's arab with perhaps some limited berber stuff in algeria.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc applies here too. There is not necessarily a direct connection between Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya. There is also a will to rule that sometimes escapes those in their autumn years.

If there isn't it is one heck of a coincidence. I also think by now we would have had the people involved pointing out there was no link if that was the case.

 

[stilicho]

He also has what is called in the trade an agenda. Reality is of secondary importance.

That's always possible. It's been taken into account.

I agree with the one poster who mentioned the succession of strongmen since that appears to be the form that works to prevent frequent regime change. It's very probable that liberal democracy is something only applicable to property-owning, science-based, secular social groups.

The Germans toyed with strongmen for a while but eventually followed the English model. Eastern Europe appears to enjoy liberal democracy but there are strongmen waiting in the wings.

I agree with you that we could need a neo-imperialist system under UN auspices to guide some of the world's nations towards the foundations of liberal democracy. With Marxism in full retreat, the unprepared independence movements of the Fifties and Sixties would not re-emerge, and those nations would have no better model to follow this time than liberal democracy.

 

[Darth Rotor]

As a follow up to the Arab Spring, I though I'd update this thead.


Your Pakistani Spring. Enjoy



Your autocrat's spring. Enjoy.


Your Arab Spring, a year later. Enjoy.

The outraged people's recent demonstrations in Cairo seem to be doing nicely, I guess I'll have to look into how the Tunisian Spring is going.

Syria is just blooming with Arab Spring, like a Slinky Convention.

Spring has sprung,
the fists were riz
I wundahz how
democracy is

 

[Undesired Walrus]

So how should those who wish to do good support those who want a stable representative government in their countries?

 

[Darth Rotor]

So how should those who wish to do good support those who want a stable representative government in their countries?

Before I answer that, I'd need to understand what you mean by "do good" since some goods contradict others. The best way forward is to make contacts with as many factions as possible, so that multiple avenues for doing good, or being able fit assistance and one's own interests into a future course of action, are available.