Project Astrometria:Global Cooling until 2100?

[Dancing David]

Ow wow, blog posts! That is the same standard they use at Thunderbolts!

 

[Reality Check]

Where is Corbyn's prediction of the Feb 2011 New England snowfalls

On 08 Feb 2011, Patrick Royston wrote:
... (a) that he heads a team that appears to provide remarkably accurate long-term weather forecasts, based on interpreting solar activity patterns, and (b) he strongly and scientifically refutes the pathetically inadequate C02 hypothesis espoused by the "warmists". ..!

That is smart Haig: Telling us that an ignorant person (Patrick Royston) likes the work of an evil person (Piers Corbyn).

You misunderstand: I am talking about the evil act of not publishing the science behind his method so that

1. It can be verified.
2. 1000's of scientists with much better resources can make his method better.

So far all we know is that he is doing the equivalent of predicting that some days will be wet in winter. That is trivial.

As a biostatistician Patrick Royston should not be dumb enough to judge predictions until the statistics are analysyed, i.e. they are tested against the null hypothesis of informed guesses (like it will be wet in winter) and the missing predictions are included (where is the prediction months ago of the heavy snowfall in New England during the 1st week of Feb?).

A biostatistician shows his ignorance of physics "solar activity patterns" as used by Piers have little effect on weather. Solar activity has been decreasing over the last few decades (so Piers might predict global cooling and would be wrong!). Other solar activities like sunspots have no effect on weather.

A biostatistician shows his ignorance of physics: The physics of greenhouse gases is simple enough for anyone to understand. The hypothesis that increasing CO2 causes the climate to warm has very strong evidence to support it. The evidence that humans have caused CO2 levels to increase is strong.

 

[CapelDodger]

I certainly intend to carry it out.

I never doubted it myself .

Haig is presenting what February will provide and if it doesn't, well, there's always hope for March.

Which brings us to what Corbyn predicts for March, in the UK and Europe and the USA and Queensland, Australia. Haig can surely point us at those given Corbyn's 85% success rate before such recent events.

The NOAA report for January should be posted in the next week or so, we can see whether 1 and 3 were correct then. We can already see that 9 was incorrect.

Jan was a write-off for Corbyn, but there's still hope for Feb.

 

[Pixel42]

Jan was a write-off for Corbyn

Living in the UK I of course already know he was wrong about here, but I'm not sure what the temperature was like in the rest of Europe - though if there was "exteme cold" I would have expected to hear about it on the news. I've seen lots of reports of snow in the USA in January and some complaints of how cold it was, but I don't know enough about what's usually expected there at this time of year to say at this point whether the temperature was low enough for long enough and for enough of the country to vindicate Corbyn's prediction. So in both cases I'll wait for the official data before drawing any conclusions.

 

[Haig]

Haig is presenting what February will provide and if it doesn't, well, there's always hope for March.

Which brings us to what Corbyn predicts for March, in the UK and Europe and the USA and Queensland, Australia. Haig can surely point us at those given Corbyn's 85% success rate before such recent events.

Sure .... Corbyn doesn't get it right all the time, he has never claimed infallibility but he is right a lot of the time and you'll have to live with that

Piers Corbyn of http://www.weatheraction.com has suddenly been appearing in all the International media as the sole forecaster "who got it right" about our current weather patterns.

Here he responds to the question; "Is the Earth entering a climatic phase unseen for centuries?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O76GO02LtlU&feature=related

Jan was a write-off for Corbyn, but there's still hope for Feb.

Well PC did make a mistake in the UK in Jan (he admits the error and learns from it - see the end of the video) but he DID get a lot right in the UK in Dec and elsewhere in Jan but you don't want to give him credit for that, do you?

http://www.youtube.com/user/1weatheraction#p/u/1/C7JuZKyl2x8

Piers Corbyn's comments on the "Current State in the Climate Wars"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfG5MBs33qc

..... but I don't know enough about what's usually expected there at this time of year to say at this point whether the temperature was low enough for long enough and for enough of the country to vindicate Corbyn's prediction. So in both cases I'll wait for the official data before drawing any conclusions.

You put a lot of trust in the official data from NOAA

NOAA and the New "Climategate" Scandal

Consider a brief review of institutions that have provided much of the data and analysis concerning the theory of manmade climate change:

1) The Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia found its credibility fundamentally undermined by the Climategate revelations. Furthermore, news that much of the original climate data held by the CRU had been destroyed only fueled speculations about the credibility of the entire theory: It was simply impossible to challenge the CRU’s theories according to one of the most fundamental elements of the scientific method: independent verification of results.

2) NASA has also been accused of suppressing the data behind its climate change estimates.

3) Now NOAA appears to have systematically skewed its environmental data by placement of its monitoring devices.

So one might reasonably ask, “Where’s the data proving climate change is occurring? And where is the proof that even if such a change is taking place, that man is responsible for the change?”

I'm sure you won't/didn't believe any of the above but do you believe the latest from NOAA?

NOAA Satellite Map Shows Most of Northern Hemisphere is Covered in Snow and Ice

At first glance it looks like a graphic from a Discovery Channel programme about a distant ice age. But this astonishing picture shows the world as it is today – with half the Northern Hemisphere covered with snow and ice.

my bold ...a sign of things to come?

 

[Reality Check]

NOAA and the New "Climategate" Scandal

Their sources (Joseph D’Aleo and Anthony Watts) are lying:

• The CRU credibility was not undermined except in the preduduced minds of the sources.
• A small amount of copies of original data was destroyed by the CRU. The data is still available.
• The data can be independently verified. The sources are just too lazy to do so.
• The trends in the data have been independently verified by other data sets.

NOAA Satellite Map Shows Most of Northern Hemisphere is Covered in Snow and Ice
my bold ...a sign of things to come?

Haig: You do realize that it snows in winter? That in the winter most of that northern hemisphere can be covered in snow and ice !
This winter's weather has seen a lot of snow and ice.

Do you know the simple fact that the picture shows snow and ice extents (not volume) and it is the volume of ice that affects climate?
The measurements are that even the extent of ice has been decreasing since the 1950's. Start with Arctic Ice Part 2: A Review of Factors Contributing to the Recent Decline in Arctic Ice

In Part 1, (also summarized here) we established that Arctic Ice extent, thickness and estimated volume have been diminishing over the past few decades and over the past century Comiso 2010. Perennial ice has reduced to a fraction of former levels and loss continues. Over the same period, the Arctic has warmed faster than any other region on Earth.

 

[Haig]

Haig: You do realize that it snows in winter? That in the winter most of that northern hemisphere can be covered in snow and ice !
This winter's weather has seen a lot of snow and ice.

RC this is just the latest bad winter in a run of 3 or is it 4 bad ones and it aint over yet

Is this the worst winter you can recall?
Seemingly endless waves of snow. Cars frozen shut. Garbage pickup severely hampered. Cats living with dogs (well, not yet at least).

As much of the continental U.S. digs out - and others brace for a fresh hit - we're curious: can you think of a winter when you had it worse?

The winter of 2009–2010 in Europe was unusually cold. Globally there were atypical weather pattern brought cold moist air from the north with systems undergoing cyclogenesis from North American storms moving across the Atlantic Ocean to the west, and saw many parts of Europe experiencing heavy snowfall and record low temperatures

 

[Mikemcc]

It's also a series of the warmest arctic temperatures on record...

 

[Reality Check]

RC this is just the latest bad winter in a run of 3 or is it 4 bad ones and it aint over yet

So what?
2010 just happens to be one of the warmest years in how many decades Haig ?
Global temperatures have been rising for how many decades Haig?

 

[Mikemcc]

So what?
2010 just happens to be one of the warmest years in how many decades Haig ?
Global temperatures have been rising for how many decades Haig?

Longer than Corbyns been alive!

 

[Haig]

It's also a series of the warmest arctic temperatures on record...

So what?
2010 just happens to be one of the warmest years in how many decades Haig ?
Global temperatures have been rising for how many decades Haig?

Longer than Corbyns been alive!

Well guys, who do you believe?

Consider a brief review of institutions that have provided much of the data and analysis concerning the theory of manmade climate change:

1) The Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia found its credibility fundamentally undermined by the Climategate revelations. Furthermore, news that much of the original climate data held by the CRU had been destroyed only fueled speculations about the credibility of the entire theory: It was simply impossible to challenge the CRU’s theories according to one of the most fundamental elements of the scientific method: independent verification of results.

2) NASA has also been accused of suppressing the data behind its climate change estimates.

3) Now NOAA appears to have systematically skewed its environmental data by placement of its monitoring devices.

So one might reasonably ask, “Where’s the data proving climate change is occurring? And where is the proof that even if such a change is taking place, that man is responsible for the change?”

The “Chinagate” scandal appears to demonstrate that much of the temperature change in China may actually have been “caused” by placing monitoring equipment in rapidly urbanizing areas — rather than documenting a change in the climate, such data simply illustrates the long-established “urban heat effect” associated with cities around the world. Similar issues with data collection have already surfaced in other areas of the world, including New Zealand.

The failure of the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen to produce a binding treaty has bought time for a rational reassessment of the entire “science” behind the theories that were the premise for gathering 192 nations in Copenhagen. However, participation in the Copenhagen Accord still poses an imminent threat to the economic vitality of the industrialized world at a time when the economies of many of those nations are already reeling in the midst of recession. The scandals have laid bare what now appears to many observers to have been a “rush to judgment.” It is time for cooler heads to reevaluate global warming.

That was a rhetorical question I know you believe CRU, NASA & NOAA no matter what!

For me, Climategate was a revelation on how low some institutions can go to retain public funds, power and influence.

So, opened the whole "can of worms"

 

[Haig]

New Ice Age to Begin in 2014 – Russian Scientist to Global Alarmists: “Sun Heats Earth!”

By Jerome R. Corsi

As the Obama administration prepares to move ahead with its global warming ideological agenda, Russian scientists are worried we are entering a new ice age.

Speaking to an international climate change meeting in Chicago in May 2010, Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of the space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, predicted a new “Little Ice Age” would begin in the year 2014, four years from now.

The “Little Ice Age,” known in scientific circles as the Medieval Warm Period is typically defined as having extended for some two hundred years during the 16th to the 19th centuries, beginning around 1650 and extending through 1850.
In 2003-2005, Abdussamatov predicted a reduction of sunspot activity that would reach a new deep minimum of sunspot activity in 2042, resulting in a deep global temperature minimum to be reached in the years 2055-2060.

“My predictions are looking better and better with each passing year,” Abdussamatov commented.

Science Bulletin: “Sun heats Earth!”

Abdussamatov has published a paper in which he tracks sunspot activity going back into the 19th century to argue that total sun irradiance, or TSI, is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide.

Moreover, Abdussamatov’s analysis of sun activity data has led him to conclude that the Earth is entering a prolonged cooling phase because sunspot activity is currently in a phase regarded as a “minimum.”

“Observations of the sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon doioxide is ‘not guilty,’” Abdussamatov wrote, “and as for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop.”

Abdussamatov’s paper is featured on page 140 of 2009 report issued by the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/in...ecord_id=10fe77b0-802a-23ad-4df1-fc38ed4f85e3 documenting more than 700 scientists who disagree over the proposition that global warming is a man-made, or anthropogenic phenomenon.

As historical support for his theory, Abdussamatov cited the observations in 1893 made by the English astronomer Walter Maunder who came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715, sunspots had been generally absent, which coincided with the middle and coldest part of the severe temperature dip known as the “Little Ice Age” that stretched from the fourteenth to the nineteenth centuries.

Abdussamatov also observed “the most significant solar event in the 20th century was the extraordinarily high level and the prolonged (virtually over the entire century) increase in the energy radiated by the sun,” resulting in the global warming that today climate alarmists believe is man-made phenomenon. (Parenthesis in original text.)

“The intense solar energy flow radiated since the beginning of the 1990s is slowly and decreasingly and, in spite of conventional opinion, there is now an unavoidable advance toward a global decrease, a deep temperature drop comparable to the Maunder minimum,” he wrote.

Abdussamatov contends that over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop.

“The observed global warming of the climate of the Earth is not caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses, but by extraordinarily high solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past century,” Abdussamatov wrote. “Future decrease in global temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere rises to record levels.”

Russian space station charged with refining ice age prediction

In his capacity of the head of the Russian-Ukrainian project “Astrometria” on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Abdussamatov is conducting additional research to refine his prediction that a new Little Ice Age will begin in 2014.

Abdussamatov warned that more precise determination of the date of the onset of the upcoming deep temperature drop and the depth of the decrease in the global temperature of the Earth may not be available for another eight years, awaiting measurements of the form and diameter of the sun currently being made from the Russian segment of the International Space Station the calculations currently being made in the http://www.bobbrinsmead.com/e_Abdussamatov.html Russian-Ukrainan project “Astrometria” that Abdussamatov is now directing.

“If the Astrometria project is developed in time,” Abdussamatov said, “we will be able to develop a more precise forecast of the duration and the depth of the approaching new Little Ice Age and to understand the reasons of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the sun and the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of human activity.”

http://republicbroadcasting.org/?p=12914

 

[Pixel42]

The “Little Ice Age,” known in scientific circles as the Medieval Warm Period

And he expects us to take this nonsense seriously.

ETA: http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

Haig, no-one is suggesting that variations in solar irradiance don't affect the climate. They may well have been the single biggest short term (decadal) influence on it up to about 50 years ago. But they are not the biggest influence at the moment, as this graph makes clear. Something else is now causing global temperature to increase.

 

[Haig]

And he expects us to take this nonsense seriously.

Yes, he is not a native English speaker and so you want to fault him for the error of a interpreter?

Something else is now causing global temperature to increase.

Something else is now causing global temperature to decrease or at the very least .. "there has been no statistically significant warming since 1995" ... all while CO2 continues to rise.

 

[Pixel42]

Yes, he is not a native English speaker and so you want to fault him for the error of a interpreter?

OK: what was that sentence supposed to say, in your opinion? Because I can think of no way of restating it that would make any sense whatsoever.

Something else is now causing global temperature to decrease or at the very least .. "there has been no statistically significant warming since 1995" ... all while CO2 continues to rise.

Given the relatively small size of the expected signal compared with the size of the expected noise, no-one with any knowledge of statistics would be surprised that a period as short as 15 years didn't show a statistically significant trend. It does, however show a warming trend of 0.12C per decade, which is only just below the 95% significance level. Also all ten of the ten warmest years on record have occurred in that 15 years, so clearly nothing is causing global temperature to decrease.

You're doing the equivalent of pointing out that there has been no statistically significant warming since February 1st, and concluding that the summer is not going to come this year.

 

[Haig]

OK: what was that sentence supposed to say, in your opinion? Because I can think of no way of restating it that would make any sense whatsoever.

your serious in suggesting Abdussamatov, the head of the Russian-Ukrainian project “Astrometria” on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, doesn't know the Little Ice Age followed the Medieval Warm Period?

Well, I can think this is closer to what he was perhaps saying:

"The Little Ice Age, was known, scientifically, to follow the Medieval Warm Period"

You're doing the equivalent of pointing out that there has been no statistically significant warming since February 1st, and concluding that the summer is not going to come this year.

Funny you should say that but the last few summers and winters have been more in line to what Piers Corbyn and Abdussamatov have been saying.

To be clear on this. If the Earth's climate has entered a period of cooling this is to be expected and they say the cooling will intensify.

Especially, I think, once the Oceans have finished given up their stored heat and chilling dominates.

 

[Haig]

Harsh Winter blasts returning on cue for England, Wales and most of Europe 2nd half Feb.

After the tremendous simultaneous end Jan/start Feb Great blizzard of USA & Super Cyclone Yasi in Australia which confirmed WeatherAction's predictions* we issued an update for February for Britain Ireland and Europe:-
(*see maps & pics pdf http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No3.pdf )

"The implications for the coming period are:
(1.) For Britain, Ireland & Europe, the current weather period 4th-9th Feb is milder at times and more mobile in South half of Britain & Ireland and much of Europe than long-range forecasted. Variations were anyway warned of in the WeatherAction forecast for the first 12 days so now it seems clear the milder side will largely prevail in the South.
However the view for colder sometimes snowy weather including South England and parts of Europe in mid and later Feb still stands. ......"

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=308&c=5

From the PDF

The Sun–Earth particle connections were Greatly enhanced around 25th Jan by a significant ‘hole’ in the Earth’s magnetic shield (magnetosphere) enabling solar particles to flood in giving astounding Aurorae$on 25/26th http://bit.ly/hfVkXc and shifts of the jet streams and extreme weather events in following days.

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No3.pdf

 

[Dancing David]

New Ice Age to Begin in 2014 – Russian Scientist to Global Alarmists: “Sun Heats Earth!”

http://republicbroadcasting.org/?p=12914

Jerome Corsi?

When did he become a meterologist?

World Nut Daily!

http://mediamatters.org/blog/201101190007

 

[Dancing David]

Funny you should say that but the last few summers and winters have been more in line to what Piers Corbyn and Abdussamatov have been saying.

Funny that you should say the least few summers and show YOU do not know what climate is at all.

 

[Dancing David]

Well guys, who do you believe?

That was a rhetorical question I know you believe CRU, NASA & NOAA no matter what!

For me, Climategate was a revelation on how low some institutions can go to retain public funds, power and influence.

So, opened the whole "can of worms"

Haig this is off topic and irrelevant, it belongs in the moderated Global Warming thread, please do not post this again to this thread.