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Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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shuttlt,

You have yet to comment on Ms. Nadeau's report on Mignini's closing remarks that two commenters (myself and RWVBWL) have mentioned.
OK. Found it. This is the thing from Angel Face, yes? How strong is the actual claim? I vaguely recall Barbie also claimed a cop had told her that on the day after the murder Amanda looked like she hadn't slept and smelled as if she hadn't showered, or something. I have my doubts about her reliability, particularly relating to stuff like this that is something that somebody said someone else heard somebody say. Still it is an additional source.

Do I judge her fairly?
 
I would say 40% - not most. Some of the suspended posters have virtually never honestly argued over the actual evidence. It has gotten better. Still, I believe the skeleton of the case is what ties Guede to Amanda and Raffaele. That skeleton is entirely missing. I haven't heard any arguments that have any merit for having the three collude.
Collude in what sense?

Furthermore, there is not evidence not a joke that gives any indication that this is pre-meditated 1st degree murder, 2nd degree murder, or even manslaughter.
Surely somebody killed her and is guilty of something (by the way, aren't degrees of murder a US thing?).

We've argued the concept that the FOAKers have to 'prove' Amanda and Raffaele's innocence over and over with the same conclusion: The concept is innocent until proven guilty which means it is up to the guilters to prove guilt.
Well, the glib answer is that we aren't in court. The longer, less glib answer is that presumably it is the intention of the pro-innocence camp to convince people that either Amanda is actually innocent, or at least is legally innocent. the process of convincing people is essentially to prove to those people that what you are saying is the case. If you aren't bothered about convincing people that Amanda is either actually, or legally innocent, why are you posting?

If you claim that Amanda is clearly actually innocent, then presumably you feel you have rational grounds for this claim that can be explained and would in some senses constitute a proof. If you claim that Amanda is clearly legally innocent, then presumably you feel you have rational grounds for this claim that can be explained and would in some senses constitute a proof. That being the case, please share your proof.

For myself I feel that the case (whether in respect to who the killer was, or the fairness of the trial) isn't decidable on this forum with all the confusing, contradictory, badly translated and partial sources of information we have. That is my claim and the onus is certainly on me to prove that to other people if I have any desire for other people to agree with me.

Furthermore, the finding of the Italian court does not constitute proof in the scientific sense.
Well, it depends what claim one is making. It certainly isn't any kind of final proof of their guilt. But then again what is? One could look at how many wrongful convictions there are in Italy and use that as an indicator of whether the conviction takes us over the 95% confidence we need for it to be scientifically significant, but that would be kind of silly.

You’ve been a dynamite antagonist, but you’re slippery.
I'm flattered, I think.
 
By the way Justinian, one of the things that I think makes your position, that you don't have to prove it, harder is that in that case I think you probably need to be arguing against somebody who believes they can prove that Amanda is a killer. Who on this board are you arguing with who holds that position? I'm certainly aware of people who think she is a killer, but I'm unclear if anybody currently posting claims that they are able to prove that Amanda is a killer. If no such person is posting then I wonder whether anybody is actually trying to prove anything to anyone. We could be in the bizarre situation of one side believing that the argument isn't provable in this forum, while the other side say it isn't up to them to offer proof, but rather to attack the proof offered by the first side. Deadlock (or more properly livelock), no?
 
To me the only evidence needed for a not guilty verdict is the total lack of evidence of AK and RS being in the room where the murder occured. Everything else to me seems like useless gibberish.
 
To me the only evidence needed for a not guilty verdict is the total lack of evidence of AK and RS being in the room where the murder occured. Everything else to me seems like useless gibberish.
Surely it's perfectly possible and by no means necessarily improper for somebody to be convicted of murder without physical evidence of them at the crime scene? You are presumably discounting the physical evidence. OK. But what about circumstantial evidence, is circumstantial evidence necessarily "useless gibberish"?
 
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Do you honestly believe that with all the violence and blood in that room that AK and RS could have participated without a trace?
 
Do you honestly believe that with all the violence and blood in that room that AK and RS could have participated without a trace?
1. Participated in what capacity?

2. Where does this blood go that it would necessarily cause them to leave some kind of unmistakable trace? Do they necessarily have to end up making huge bloody footprints, or leaving bloody fingerprints? Perhaps it is indeed unavoidable that, had they been in the room as she was being killed, they would have gotten blood on them. What do you expect to see as a result? A bit of Meredith's blood left somewhere else in the apartment with one or other of their DNA mixed in? What ought we to see?
 
Surely it's perfectly possible and by no means necessarily improper for somebody to be convicted of murder without physical evidence of them at the crime scene? You are presumably discounting the physical evidence. OK. But what about circumstantial evidence, is circumstantial evidence necessarily "useless gibberish"?

To me, circumstantial evidence becomes weak with the lack of physical evidence. It seems easy to see, that the killer left all the evidence needed
 
To me the only evidence needed for a not guilty verdict is the total lack of evidence of AK and RS being in the room where the murder occured. Everything else to me seems like useless gibberish.

Ah, the dewey-eyed clarity of new blood!

Welcome Poppy. Well said.

The bra clasp is the only shred of evidence placing Rafaelle in the room. (And it is certainly a tattered shred.)
 
1. Participated in what capacity?

2. Where does this blood go that it would necessarily cause them to leave some kind of unmistakable trace? Do they necessarily have to end up making huge bloody footprints, or leaving bloody fingerprints? Perhaps it is indeed unavoidable that, had they been in the room as she was being killed, they would have gotten blood on them. What do you expect to see as a result? A bit of Meredith's blood left somewhere else in the apartment with one or other of their DNA mixed in? What ought we to see?

What we ought to see is some trace that they were in that room. It would be virtually impossible to have participated in that murder without leaving a single trace IMO.
 
Ah, the dewey-eyed clarity of new blood!

Welcome Poppy. Well said.

The bra clasp is the only shred of evidence placing Rafaelle in the room. (And it is certainly a tattered shred.)

Thank you for the welcome Babycondor.
The bra clasp was proof of only one thing, contamination if the findings are actually his which i highly doubt.
 
What we ought to see is some trace that they were in that room.
Why not, and like what? It's not as if they are great lumps of Rudy strewn all over the room.

Poppy1016;670198It would be virtually impossible to have participated in that murder without leaving a single trace IMO.[/QUOTE said:
Quibbling I know, but you presumably mean a trace that is both detected and is uniquely associable with the murder. Presumably there is DNA from Amanda in the room if only one were to look hard enough for long enough. Perhaps also for Raffaele? There was once a lot of talk that perhaps the DNA on the clasp was due to kicking around in dust off the floor.

Going back more than 6 months there was a lot of talk, particularly from a poster called Fiona about how upon looking into the matter it turned out that we didn't leave traces of ourselves from crime scene investigators to find half as readily as one might have supposed.
 
Thank you for the welcome Babycondor.
The bra clasp was proof of only one thing, contamination if the findings are actually his which i highly doubt.
How is the bra clasp proof of contamination? Do you mean the mysterious and unidentified "other people" whose DNA was also discovered?
 
Why not, and like what? It's not as if they are great lumps of Rudy strewn all over the room.


Quibbling I know, but you presumably mean a trace that is both detected and is uniquely associable with the murder. Presumably there is DNA from Amanda in the room if only one were to look hard enough for long enough. Perhaps also for Raffaele? There was once a lot of talk that perhaps the DNA on the clasp was due to kicking around in dust off the floor.

Going back more than 6 months there was a lot of talk, particularly from a poster called Fiona about how upon looking into the matter it turned out that we didn't leave traces of ourselves from crime scene investigators to find half as readily as one might have supposed.

You make a good point,but seeing as they desperately wanted to find hard evidece against AK and RS, it seems to me they must have looked long and hard. My opinion is based on this particular case. It was a small room, a lot of violence, and a lot of blood.
 
How is the bra clasp proof of contamination? Do you mean the mysterious and unidentified "other people" whose DNA was also discovered?

The time it took to recover the clasp coupled with other DNA found on the clasp is proof of contamination IMO. Otherwise there must be at least 6 killers.
 
You make a good point,but seeing as they desperately wanted to find hard evidece against AK and RS, it seems to me they must have looked long and hard. My opinion is based on this particular case. It was a small room, a lot of violence, and a lot of blood.
I'm sure they looked hard, but they can only have sampled a tiny fraction of the material in the room.

The blood was Meredith's. Meredith was restrained. No great quantity of violence was necessarily directed at the attacker. Again, what physical evidence would they necessarily have to have left?
 
The time it took to recover the clasp coupled with other DNA found on the clasp is proof of contamination IMO. Otherwise there must be at least 6 killers.
Not necessarily. Halides is very likely, and most welcome to correct me if I go wrong here, but the DNA on the clasp is as follows. A whole bunch of Merediths DNA. Then there are some pretty clear peaks that seem to be Raffaele, though there a small number of peaks of comparable, or even somewhat greater strength that are not attributable to Raffaele. There is some evidence that this may be attributable to Amanda though it seems they are too garbled to be positive about. After that there is some noise along the bottom which is clearly genetic material of some description but is not attributable to anyone due to how weak it is.

It could be that it is all down to contamination in the room, but to me the obvious thought that this throws up is - "isn't it odd that Raffaele's DNA would be the strongest source of contamination and by quite a long way (odds and sods that could be from Amanda aside)". Perhaps you don't feel it is odd at all, but I think it isn't a wholly unnatural thought to have if one is inclined to feel suspicious of him.

If you count the two very weak samples as proof that the whole thing is hopelessly contaminated/that there were necessarily 6 people involved, could you tell me what one would expect to find as the normal background level of genetic chaff on an 'uncontaminated' sample?

As for the time it took. In and of itself, what is that unless there is a huge quantity of Raffaele's and very little of anybody else's floating about the apartment and inevitably over time it would be expected to build up.
 
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I don't suppose you could point me to the section in the Massei report that deals with Raffaele's statement from 5/6 November, could you? Presumably Massei must have used it as grounds for the conviction in some way, otherwise there'd be no need for the defence to bring it up in Court at all. I did have a quick look but the discussion in the report seems focused on Amanda's statements - perhaps I've missed the reference to Raffaele's.
I don't have a copy of the Massei report. I've just been assuming that it must be in the record, if it wasn't suppressed. Mary-H says it is referred to on pages 17-18 of the report (# 23154.)
 
I don't have a copy of the Massei report. I've just been assuming that it must be in the record, if it wasn't suppressed. Mary-H says it is referred to on pages 17-18 of the report (# 23154.)

I am amazed at the amount of wild speculation in the Massei report. Several unsubstantiated theories and possibilities. It is my opinion that the defense will be able to strongly attack the report. A conviction made up of could be's and maybe's should not be able to stand IMO.
 
Actually, Mary, I'm not at all surprised that the issue of Raffaele's admissions has not loomed large on this board. It confirms a predisposition to ignore or gloss over some very problematic aspects of the case.

A very problematic aspect of the case would be some kind of hard evidence at the scene of the crime implicating Amanda Knox or Raffaele Sollecito. However there isn't any apart from the DNA evidence currently under review.

A moderately problematic aspect of the case would be some kind of evidence conflicting with Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito's alibi. However there isn't any apart from the testimony of Curatolo which is also going to undergo review.

False statements made under conditions which we know are likely to provoke false statements from vulnerable subjects prove nothing one way or the other, and so cannot reasonably be described as "very problematic".

Amanda's alleged accomplice, her lover, tells the police that, contrary to what the two of them have been saying for days, she went to Le Chic the night in question. On what line of reasoning does this not go directly to the issue of where Amanda was that night, and what she was up to? It destroys her alibi and credibility.

What kind of logic is this?

Amanda Knox's alibi is supported by the computer evidence, and by the fact that she claimed watching Stardust as her alibi before the police erased the relevant metadata and then destroyed the hard drive for good measure.

You can point to Raffaele's repudiation of his admissions, which plays right into the question "Was he lying when he said this, or lying when he said that?" In the absence of persuasive evidence that the admissions were involuntary, the jury will go with them. I have heard no such evidence--only speculation, conjecture and wishful thinking. This sort of thing is not admissible in any court I've ever heard of. Now, if there's reason to believe that the prosecution, in Amanda's case, can't point to Raf's admissions, please enlighten me.

Sorry to seem flippant to you, LondonJohn, but when you've heard dozens of complaints of coercion and maltreatment, they tend to lose their emotive impact.

What has emotional impact got to do with it?

It is proven, scientific fact that people come out with false statements some of the time under certain conditions.

Whether those conditions were present in these cases is impossible to determine with complete certainty, because the tapes of the interrogations turn out to be another vital piece of evidence which the police lost/destroyed/forgot.

You can call me a cynic, but when the accused tell the police their alibi and then the police not only fail to check it but in fact make a thorough job of destroying the evidence that could falsify or verify that alibi, I tend to think it more likely than not that the accused were telling the truth. When the accused claim that they were assaulted, told that they had false memories and so on and the police can't come up with the tapes of those interrogations (but only those) then once again I think it more likely than not that the accused were telling the truth.

If we are talking about "very problematic" aspects of the case, you might want to talk about what happened to the Stardust metadata and the hard drive it came on. You might want to talk about what happened to the tapes of the most important interrogations/interviews/whateveryouwant in the investigation. You might want to talk about the the ostentatiously filmed collection of the bra clasp combined with the failure to test the stain on the pillow under Meredith's body, at a time when the prosecution desperately needed something against Raffaele. Those all strike me as very problematic aspects of the way this investigation was conducted.

A cognitive error that humans are very prone to is privileging folk-psychological guesswork like "I don't think an innocent person would do that! I sure don't think I would do that!" over hard scientific facts like computer records of human interaction or mobile phone calls, or properly collected and used forensic evidence. When our ancestors were killing each other in Africa all we had to rely on was that kind of folk-psychological guesswork. However now we live in a vastly more knowledgeable and powerful society where relying on folk-psychological guesswork to solve crimes is as pitifully foolish as praying to the Rain God when you could turn on a hose, or doing the Buffalo Dance when you could walk to the supermarket.

The fact is that your folk-psychological guesswork can very easily be totally wrong. Once you accept that and look at the good evidence, the solution to the puzzle of Meredith Kercher's murder falls out very easily.
 
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