Where did you get the idea that banks and many businesses are closed on November 2nd in Italy?
They aren't!
Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case
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They aren't!
The 2nd is a normal business day in Italy.
LondonJohn
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I see stilicho is still having trouble understanding the ToD calculations as indicated by the stomach/intestinal contents. He seems to find it amusing (and/or clever) to quote that by Kevin's reasoning (and mine, for that matter), Meredith should have died at 8pm.
So, as a favour to him and to anyone else who still doesn't get it, I'll run through the arguments once again:
So, first the direct argument. Research (from several sources*) indicates that food starts to leave the stomach on average 80-90 minutes from the start of the meal. However, this is an average, and there's variation between different people, such that for 25% of people food only starts leaving the stomach after around 100-110 minutes. And for around 5% of people, food stays in the stomach until at least 130 minutes after eating. For around 2% of people, it's there for 150 minutes or more after eating. And for only 0.1% of people, this time increases to 170 minutes or longer.
Now for what we actually know, in order to plug numbers into the analysis: first, it's been fairly well established from testimony that Meredith began her last meal (pizza) at around 6.30pm. The next important thing to note is that we know with certainty that Meredith was still just before 9pm. And we know with certainty that all of her final meal was still in her stomach at the time of her death.
9pm is 150 minutes after 6.30pm. So Meredith was already well over the known average if all of her meal was still in her stomach at 9pm. But that's OK - around 2% of people have stomach emptying times of this time or longer, so Meredith must - by definition - have belonged to this small statistical group. We know this to be true because we know that Meredith was alive 150 minutes after eating her meal.
So, we know that Meredith died some time between 9pm and (say) 11.30pm. This is where the experimental data show us just how unlikely it is that Meredith died any later than 9.30pm. 9.20pm is 170 minutes after the meal consumption. The experimental data suggest that only 0.1% of people would still have all their meal in their stomach after this elapsed time. This is a subset of the 2% group to which Meredith must have belonged. And what it suggests is this: given that we know that Meredith was alive at 9pm, the data suggest that there is only a 5% chance that she died later than 9.20pm (0.1%/2% = 5%), and therefore a 95% chance that she died between 9pm and 9.20pm. A further analysis of the experimental data suggests that the probability that Meredith died later than 10.30pm (given that we know she was alive at 9pm) is just 0.25%.
* The source data documents have been cited many times previously - by me and others. Feel free to use the search facility to reference them.
So, as a favour to him and to anyone else who still doesn't get it, I'll run through the arguments once again:
So, first the direct argument. Research (from several sources*) indicates that food starts to leave the stomach on average 80-90 minutes from the start of the meal. However, this is an average, and there's variation between different people, such that for 25% of people food only starts leaving the stomach after around 100-110 minutes. And for around 5% of people, food stays in the stomach until at least 130 minutes after eating. For around 2% of people, it's there for 150 minutes or more after eating. And for only 0.1% of people, this time increases to 170 minutes or longer.
Now for what we actually know, in order to plug numbers into the analysis: first, it's been fairly well established from testimony that Meredith began her last meal (pizza) at around 6.30pm. The next important thing to note is that we know with certainty that Meredith was still just before 9pm. And we know with certainty that all of her final meal was still in her stomach at the time of her death.
9pm is 150 minutes after 6.30pm. So Meredith was already well over the known average if all of her meal was still in her stomach at 9pm. But that's OK - around 2% of people have stomach emptying times of this time or longer, so Meredith must - by definition - have belonged to this small statistical group. We know this to be true because we know that Meredith was alive 150 minutes after eating her meal.
So, we know that Meredith died some time between 9pm and (say) 11.30pm. This is where the experimental data show us just how unlikely it is that Meredith died any later than 9.30pm. 9.20pm is 170 minutes after the meal consumption. The experimental data suggest that only 0.1% of people would still have all their meal in their stomach after this elapsed time. This is a subset of the 2% group to which Meredith must have belonged. And what it suggests is this: given that we know that Meredith was alive at 9pm, the data suggest that there is only a 5% chance that she died later than 9.20pm (0.1%/2% = 5%), and therefore a 95% chance that she died between 9pm and 9.20pm. A further analysis of the experimental data suggests that the probability that Meredith died later than 10.30pm (given that we know she was alive at 9pm) is just 0.25%.
* The source data documents have been cited many times previously - by me and others. Feel free to use the search facility to reference them.
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LondonJohn
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Did she either write down or tell anyone in the day (or even days) following the murder what she'd heard? What exactly did she tell her parents, and why weren't they called to testify? Why didn't they hear the same thing (there's no mention that she went so far as to wake her parents up)? Surely contemporaneous corroboration of Ms Monacchia's testimony would be critical, given that she only came forward and gave a formal statement a year later.
My ancestors are Irish.
Of COURSE I have anti UK sentiments!
However, I do like BBC (especially Top Gear and Dr. WHO), English beers. Stilton cheese, and Vincents.
And half my music collection (well maybe only a third) is Brit stuff (so say, 400 CDs and LPs).
The legal system is another matter (not a common-law fan).
And British wine?
Anyway, last time I checked, the Brits are not a race.
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______________________
I think you are mistaken, John.
In Amanda's trial testimony---concerning her first visit to the cottage, the morning of November 2nd---the subject of Amanda's desk lamp gone missing from her bedroom arises. And therefore the source of illumination in her bedroom arises too. It's first noted that her bedroom shutters are open, and so providing one source of natural light. Then there is this dialogue:
___________________________________________________________
GCM: It wasn't dark, but where was the light coming from? Natural light?
AK: Natural.
GCM: And what window was it coming from, this natural light?
AK: I only have one window, but it was also coming from the other side because
there's a balcony.
____________________________________________________________
///
LondonJohn
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My ancestors are Irish.
Of COURSE I have anti UK sentiments!
However, I do like BBC (especially Top Gear), English beers. Stilton cheese, and Vincents.
The legal system is another matter (not a common-law fan).
And British wine?
Anyway, last time I checked, the Brits are not a race.
Ahh we're getting off-piste here, but nonetheless....
Hmmmm Top Gear: the strange blend of beautiful photography and neanderthal macho petrol-head posturing. Still, it is a huge seller for the BBC's commercial arm, so it helps keep the licence fee down, which can't be a bad thing.
And so far as wine is concerned, it's more a question of climate (and "terroir") than know-how. However, over the past decade the rise in average temperatures across Southern England has made the production of decent white wines - particularly sparkling whites - much more viable. The South Downs is a continuation of a chalk ridge that comprises the Champagne region and part of northern Burgundy, and there are now some UK wines that are starting to compete with mid-market champagnes and white burgundies.
BTW, what do you mean by Vincents? Are you an Oxford alumnus by any chance....?
I agree it is not an official holiday - faulty research on my part
I think that many people would take advantage of the chance to extend the holiday into a 4 day weekend and take Friday off.
LondonJohn,
That is an interesting analysis of the time of death that I don't think was available 6 months ago, or at least I haven't seen in that level of detail before. Clearly any arguments against innocence/in favour of guilt must address it. Presumably the Judges report covers the other perspective?
That is an interesting analysis of the time of death that I don't think was available 6 months ago, or at least I haven't seen in that level of detail before. Clearly any arguments against innocence/in favour of guilt must address it. Presumably the Judges report covers the other perspective?
LondonJohn
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I seem to remember reading that these shutters had been closed on the night of the murder, but that Knox opened them when she returned the following morning. I will try to find where I might have read that.
platonov
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"interesting analysis of the time of death" is one way of describing it - simplistic nonsense is another.
It has been dealt with more than once on this thread already - the authors (pl) other efforts at rather simpler analysis didn't engender confidence in this theory from the outset and so it proved.
As to what the court considered you are correct - the restricted themselves to what the experts (defence and prosecution) & the 'coroner' put forward in court [some in a closed session I believe] - internet ramblings were not considered.
It appears the defence in the appeal are going to make the same mistake
Still you have to admire the supreme confidence with which the theory is propounded - given that 1 of the original authors, Kevin Lowe, failed to understand (for example) the rather simpler method/logic involved in the staging of the 'broken window' - even after the Massei report was translated.
ETA Even the basic timeline - when the 'last meal' was consumed is inaccurate but chosen to fit in with an early ToD to suit a particular 'lone wolf theory' popular on this thread.
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Thanks Platonov. Most issues in this case that appear at first sight to lead to a clean resolution turn out to allow people to continue to disagree. None the less, I haven't gone over it before, so I'll do some read on it anyway.
platonov
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shuttlt
Well I merely meant to correct any impression that it hadn't arisen before and been dispatched.
Repetition seems to be the recurring theme of this thread.
ETA The 'ear trumpet lady' is currently the focus (once again) it seems.
You could ask LJ to point to you the best arguments against this theory- that's how rationalists/'scientists' deal with debate isn't it ?
You may also wish to ponder why the expensive forensic experts hired by by the defence didn't espouse such certainty on this matter.
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And how does two people arguing loudly in Italian have anything to do with AK?
That argument was certainly around before I wandered off the thread.
Chris_Halkides
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just ask your doctor
shuttit,
I have previously suggested that people ask physicians, especially surgeons and anesthesiologists, whom they know, "How long does it take for the stomach to start and to finish emptying." I did.
shuttit,
I have previously suggested that people ask physicians, especially surgeons and anesthesiologists, whom they know, "How long does it take for the stomach to start and to finish emptying." I did.
See also Rose's posts at #18060 and #18079
Thank you Rose for talking about an elephant in the room that has been ignored for too long. I understand the Kerchers' are grief-stricken at the loss of their youngest child. No parent should ever have to experience the funeral of their child. I have three children between 22 and 28 and cannot imagine how I would deal with the loss of any of them or those close to them nor how my life would be changed by such an event.
It just seems to me Mr. Kercher (and perhaps others in the family) are on a vendetta against AK. As you point out, they created an adversarial relationship with AK's family by hiring a lawyer and interjecting themselves into the criminal proceeedings with their parallel civil suit. I am sure Curt, Edda, Chris and the other members of AK's family saw this as a "pile-on" and it made AK's defense more difficult and complex. Successful wrongful death suits that garner large monetary damages for plaintiffs usually make emotional appeals to the jury to inflame their feelings against the defendant to motivate the jury to award as punishment significant monetary damages. Obviously, such emotions would carryover into the jury's deliberations of the criminal charges. Plus, it sure looks to me the suit was brought as "insurance" to punish AK should the criminal charges fail - especially as more became known about the evidence (lack thereof) against AK.
It also bothers me that AK was singled out for a civil suit. IIRC the civil damage award against AK was $33 million Euros. No suit was fiiled against Rudy (yes I realize his criminal trial was held separately), why not after all his life story should be worth something? - maybe TWO CENTS! hmmm..
Having a monetary interest in your daughter's roommate's guilt and then expressing shock (SHOCK!) that the roommate's family has not kissed your ...oops - apologized personally to you seems to be pretty crass.
BTW - what role (behind the scenes - i.e. calling in favors owed) if any did John Kercher have in the coverage by the UK tabloid press that so poisoned the British public against AK?
Just sayin'
May I suggest we leave off speculating about the Kerchers unless it relates to the facts of the case. Mr Kercher's daughter is dead. If he feels he needs to get legal representation then let him. Otherwise we'll just end up in tit for tat posting about the Knox PR efforts and so on and so forth.
tsig
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You'd have done yourself a huge favor if you hadn't said.
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