Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Kevin_Lowe]

In fact I will not acknowledge this

I indeed predicted exactly this, although I will not be racing off to attempt to claim the million.

, because all this is false and plain wrong in logic.
But what I object to actually, is being addressed as a member part of a community, who allegedly agrees on some doctrine, mentality or way of thinking. I suggest you may just address your beliefs about the case, and not about mindsets of hypothetical classes of people.

Like it or not you are a member of a self-selecting group with certain characteristics, just as the 9/11 twoofers and moon landing deniers are self-selecting groups with certain characteristics. You are in fact a member in good standing in a community with very strict, though unwritten, rules about what opinions on this case are acceptable and which are not. I have certain expectations of members of those communities based on their previous behaviour, and indeed as I have just demonstrated their past behaviour can be a sound basis from which to predict your future behaviour.

The epistemological processes of self-selecting communities like yours are just as interesting from a skeptical perspective, if not more so, as the specific arguments you put forward. After all the specific arguments and facts pertaining to this case pertain only to this case, but the lessons we can learn about authoritarianism, hatred, confirmation bias and social conformity may well help us deal with all sorts of other skeptical issues in the future. While there are many points of similarity between the guilters, the moon landing deniers and the twoofers the guilters have their own specific dynamics that make them interesting in their own right.

 

[shuttlt]

If you could estimate the distance window-to-window that would be great. The guilters' estimates constantly shrink from 75 metres, to 40, to 32...

It doesn't matter. The sound drop of isn't significant.

 

[Withnail1969]

Should it? It depend very much on the accoustics, doesn't it? A scream is the kind of sound that I'd have thought would echo well. Maybe we could do the maths on how many households would have been in a position to hear it. You'd need to be awake, outdoors, or near a window facing the right way and with little or no background noise at exactly the right time.

By the way, why are you asking for audiometric tests? Your argument doesn't require it. If the noise would have been audible it can't have happened because others didn't report it. If the noise wouldn't have been audible then she couldn't have heard it.

Well looking at Dan O's photo there are a multitude of apartments overlooking the cottage, just like Nara's.

There was no reason for any of the inhabitants to be asleep as early as 11:30 pm, unless they were really tired, as the following day was a national holiday.

 

[shuttlt]

Well looking at Dan O's photo there are a multitude of apartments overlooking the cottage, just like Nara's.

There was no reason for any of the inhabitants to be asleep as early as 11:30 pm, unless they were really tired, as the following day was a national holiday.

Sure. Italians go to bed rather late I think. How many of those that were awake and at home had no background noise? Was the double glazing on Nara's dining room window better or worse than most peoples - quality can make getting on for 20dB of difference judging on what I've read? How many people were home? - in the building where the murder took place either 3/4 and 7/8ths of the normal inhabitants weren't there (I'm remembering right aren't I, 4 girls above, 4 boys below)?

 

[Withnail1969]

Sure. Italians go to bed rather late I think. How many of those that were awake and at home had no background noise? Was the double glazing on Nara's dining room window better or worse than most peoples - quality can make getting on for 20dB of difference judging on what I've read? How many people were home? - in the building where the murder took place either 3/4 and 7/8ths of the normal inhabitants weren't there (I'm remembering right aren't I, 4 girls above, 4 boys below)?

I assume your question about how many people were home in the murder house at the time of the murder is supposed to be a joke?

 

[shuttlt]

I assume your question about how many people were home in the murder house at the time of the murder is supposed to be a joke?

No.

The boys were away because of the holiday, yes? Amanda may of may not have been there. The other two girls weren't there. Clearly had more of them been there there wouldn't have been a murder, so it's almost certainly not representative. However, if the boys had already left because of the holiday, maybe others had too. Presumably most of those who were home weren't sitting quietly by the window listening to the night.

 

[Withnail1969]

No.

The boys were away because of the holiday, yes? Amanda may of may not have been there. The other two girls weren't there. Clearly had more of them been there there wouldn't have been a murder, so it's almost certainly not representative. However, if the boys had already left because of the holiday, maybe others had too. Presumably most of those who were home weren't sitting quietly by the window listening to the night.

Some Italian students would have been home for the holidays. Not the UK, US or other foreign students. Not Raffaele or other Italians from a long way away. Not Perugia local citizens.

If Nara is typical of the sociological makeup of the apartments where she lived, then it's unlikely any of them were away. A simple survey carried out by police in these buildings after the murder would have easily and authoritatively answered this question.

 

[Dan O.]

Machiavelli is saying that Nara's window is one of these further to the left.

PMF claims to have a view from Nara's window. They also have a picture purported to be Nara being interviewed at night with the cottage in the background but I suspect it's the lady upstairs.

 

[LondonJohn]

I assume your question about how many people were home in the murder house at the time of the murder is supposed to be a joke?

No, I think that ShuttIt was pointing out that if most of the residents of the girls' cottage and the boys' cottage below it were away that night, then might that situation also have applied to the apartments nearby? In other words, could the number of nearby residents (who might potentially have heard the scream) have been depleted by them having gone away over the holiday period?

I would suggest that most of the residents of the apartments overlooking the house would have been at home that night. These apartments appeared to be family dwellings rather than student accommodation. And it would appear that only younger people (especially students, but also unattached single young people living away from home) would travel for this holiday: All Souls Day (2nd November) is traditionally marked by a family meal to remember family members who have died.

Also, in response to those who were asking about the orientation and distance of Ms Capezzali's apartment window, I believe that it's about 40m away from the nearest wall of the cottage. But contrary to some views, her apartment only affords a direct line of sight (and sound) to the top of the roof of the girls' house. What's more, the balcony windows (which in any case were closed and shuttered on the night of the murder) are also blocked from her line of sight (and sound) by the part of the cottage which contains the kitchen/lounge and Laura's room. If one were to radiate sound waves out from inside Meredith's room, they'd have an awful lot of work to do before they reached Nara's window - either reflecting off other buildings, or travelling through multiple stone walls.

Anyhow, as Kevin has pointed out, other factors mean that it's incredibly improbable that Meredith died at any time past 10pm, and almost impossible that she died beyond 11pm. Therefore, whatever Nara heard (or thinks she heard), it was not the "scream of death" of Meredith Kercher.

 

[LondonJohn]

Machiavelli is saying that Nara's window is one of these further to the left.

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=597&pictureid=4081[/qimg]



PMF claims to have a view from Nara's window. They also have a picture purported to be Nara being interviewed at night with the cottage in the background but I suspect it's the lady upstairs.

Actually, I believe that her apartment is in the building situated just outside this picture, but further to the right.

 

[RoseMontague]

Machiavelli,

Your position, as I understand it, is illogical. There is no absolute relationship between the lack of file release during the trial (by now amply documented) and whether or not the appeal documents reiterate a request for their release. Perhaps that request will be made later.

If the prosecution's evidence were so strong, they would have released the files long ago. The fact that the contintue to stonewall is an indication that they know how weak the evidence is.

I believe the defenses have requested new independent expert review of the DNA results involving several items including the bra clasp and knife. If the court grants this request they should be granted access to all of the data and testing results and that will become available to the defense teams at the point the results of the new expert reviews are filed.

 

[shuttlt]

Some Italian students would have been home for the holidays. Not the UK, US or other foreign students. Not Raffaele or other Italians from a long way away. Not Perugia local citizens.

Agreed.

At 11:30pm, presumably some students might still be out drinking if they didn't have lectures the next day.

If Nara is typical of the sociological makeup of the apartments where she lived, then it's unlikely any of them were away. A simple survey carried out by police in these buildings after the murder would have easily and authoritatively answered this question.

Yes. Without it it's hard to know. Most of the locals could be wizened old crones, or 18 year old students. A survey would also tell you whether they were watching TV, or whatever.

 

[Withnail1969]

No, I think that ShuttIt was pointing out that if most of the residents of the girls' cottage and the boys' cottage below it were away that night, then might that situation also have applied to the apartments nearby? In other words, could the number of nearby residents (who might potentially have heard the scream) have been depleted by them having gone away over the holiday period?

I would suggest that most of the residents of the apartments overlooking the house would have been at home that night. These apartments appeared to be family dwellings rather than student accommodation.

That's the point I made above after i got over my confusion about ShuttIt's bizarre question. If Nara is a typical resident of the apartments, I'm guessing they were all home.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

By the way, why are you asking for audiometric tests? Your argument doesn't require it. If the noise would have been audible it can't have happened because others didn't report it. If the noise wouldn't have been audible then she couldn't have heard it.

To me personally it's the equivalent of hacking the last limb off the Black Knight from the famous scene in the movie Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

The hardcore pro-guilt posters haven't admitted that the timing on the scream is incompatible with the evidence-based time of death, and they haven't admitted that loads of people should have heard the scream at the time if the scream had actually happened, as opposed to one old lady coming up with it later, and they haven't admitted that Nara's testimony would be highly questionable even without those concerns because other aspects of her testimony are clearly confabulated.

If we hacked off a fourth limb by showing that it was physically impossible for anyone to have heard the alleged scream by any means I'm sure they'd find some basis to reject that as well. They'll say the wind was blowing in the wrong direction, or the scream was the wrong frequency, or we won't be able to prove beyond doubt that the machine was working right, or something.

However the process of hacking off limbs and the Black Knight's utter denial of reality combines to make a rather amusing scene, at least in my opinion.

 

[Chris C]

Edit again - the lawyer Maori is claiming the distance is 200 metres not 70 - why should i believe a guilter like Yummi who claims the distance is 65 metres? Can you find an authoritative source to confirm this?

I think 200 meters is the distance they would have had to have run in a few seconds according to Nara's statement.

 

[shuttlt]

Anyhow, as Kevin has pointed out, other factors mean that it's incredibly improbable that Meredith died at any time past 10pm, and almost impossible that she died beyond 11pm. Therefore, whatever Nara heard (or thinks she heard), it was not the "scream of death" of Meredith Kercher.

This is surely the real argument for disbelieving her?

 

[Withnail1969]

Agreed.

At 11:30pm, presumably some students might still be out drinking if they didn't have lectures the next day.


Yes. Without it it's hard to know. Most of the locals could be wizened old crones, or 18 year old students. A survey would also tell you whether they were watching TV, or whatever.

There's a lot of apartments there. You're relying on an awful lot of people not being able to hear this horrific scream of death followed by feet rustling leaves.

 

[RoseMontague]

I don't think Nara let anybody in but her neighbor upstairs did so there is probably a picture from 1 floor up. I also may be able to recreate the elevation profile from this picture and google maps:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=597&pictureid=4080[/qimg]

Thanks. Does a height difference of only 6 meters from Nara's window to Meredith's window seem reasonable? I would guess at least double that looking at this picture.

 

[shuttlt]

There's a lot of apartments there. You're relying on an awful lot of people not being able to hear this horrific scream of death followed by feet rustling leaves.

The horrific scream, if it happened, would be quite quiet once it's worked it's way through two sets of windows. It's certainly within the margin of error that you had to be in a quiet appartment to hear it and near an appropriate window to hear it.

 

[RoseMontague]

This is surely the real argument for disbelieving her?

There are several reasons including she was mistaken about what she saw the next morning. The court found her credible because they saw no reason she would lie about it. Just seemed like a nice old lady, I guess. They made no mention of even considering that she just may have been mistaken.