North Korea fires artillery on the South

[timhau]

Yeah, I know SK was the first to fire the cannons. They say they weren't aiming North, though, and I tend to take the word of the mostly-fairly-decent over that of a habitual liar.

 

[Nerd]

Yeah, I know SK was the first to fire the cannons. They say they weren't aiming North, though, and I tend to take the word of the mostly-fairly-decent over that of a habitual liar.

South Korea is more of that crazy most-fairly-decent one thats been radically trying to push for reunification.

 

[funk de fino]

Or maybe he is cunning and conniving.

Thats just your hidden message. I can see through you.

 

[R.Mackey]

This is surprising to me. Calculating a ballistic trajectory for an artillery shell should be fairly easy compared, for example, to calculating the trajectory of a powered missile, shouldn't it?

This is an interesting point. Assuming their aimpoints were not near water (i.e. the statistic quoted is actually high, and not representative of a normal CEP overlaid on a tricky target) what it suggests is that the condition of NorK arms is very poor. Degraded powder, rusted shells, artillery with barrels in various degrees of being shot out, all could give that effect.

Or it means their crews and C&C are completely hopeless, of course.

It'd be nice if the North got some not-suicidally-insane leadership for a change. Not counting on it, but I can hope.

 

[keale]

This is an interesting point. Assuming their aimpoints were not near water (i.e. the statistic quoted is actually high, and not representative of a normal CEP overlaid on a tricky target) what it suggests is that the condition of NorK arms is very poor. Degraded powder, rusted shells, artillery with barrels in various degrees of being shot out, all could give that effect.

Or it means their crews and C&C are completely hopeless, of course.

It'd be nice if the North got some not-suicidally-insane leadership for a change. Not counting on it, but I can hope.

I dont think NK has a death wish. They may do stupid things and act crazy but I dont think full scale war is their goal as their not going to last long and it would mean an end to the NK government. NK could inflict heavy damage on Seoul but the response would be total annihilation.
It would seem that their more interested in protecting their current power structure than anything else.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

R. Mackey:

WildCat already suggested the 'old shells' argument. Certainly possible, but I'd be surprised if NK was so incompetent or destitute that it couldn't even keep its artillery shells fresh enough to fire properly. They have munitions factories, and we're not talking rocket science (and, unless I'm mistaken, rocket science is one of their few exports).

I think you raised a good point re. the targets near water thing:

Here's a map of the island in question:
http://maps.google.ca/maps?hl=en&biw=1024&bih=551&q=yeonpyeong island&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl

You can see what looks like the city, and then another developed area to the north-east. I'm guessing that's the military base they were targeting, and the city they were targeting (jeez guys).

Here's another thing from the wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Yeonpyeong_shelling.png

it appears to show the location of the shelling (? the stars?)

Maybe I'm wrong about that thing to the northeast being the base?

Hm.

 

[R.Mackey]

I dont think NK has a death wish. They may do stupid things and act crazy but I dont think full scale war is their goal as their not going to last long and it would mean an end to the NK government. NK could inflict heavy damage on Seoul but the response would be total annihilation.
It would seem that their more interested in protecting their current power structure than anything else.

I don't think the Kims want a full-scale war either, but the road they're on keeps the country on the brink of starvation or worse forever. Seems pretty suicidal to me.

R. Mackey:

WildCat already suggested the 'old shells' argument. Certainly possible, but I'd be surprised if NK was so incompetent or destitute that it couldn't even keep its artillery shells fresh enough to fire properly. They have munitions factories, and we're not talking rocket science (and, unless I'm mistaken, rocket science is one of their few exports).

Their rocket technology is unimpressive, to put it mildly. So is their nuclear technology. Most of their tests in both areas were marred by component failures that speak to poor quality of manufacture. But, yeah, it's a guess. Still, if their arty really was underperforming, there must be some reason.

 

[mike3]

Publicly, China's not gonna' do much at all, beyond 'urging calm' and trying to remain neutral.

Unofficially, they're worried as hell. They absolutely don't want war in Korea, particularly with the potential for nukes; and although perhaps are N. Korea's closest ally, it is very reluctant, and done more for purposes of keeping those North Koreans from doing anything too stupid.

I suspect that, behind closed doors, China's sending some very strong messages to the N. Korean leadership...pretty much to the effect that if they do provoke a war, China's going to maintain its neutrality, and not get involved (ie. "We won't help you").

What if NK decides to use nuclear weapons in such a war? Would China still stay out?

 

[mike3]

The problem with the reunification thing is that S. Koreans always think of reunification in terms of "N. Korea joins us, and our gov't takes over the North". The opposing possibility, that reunification involves the North taking over, never even seems to occur to them...despite the fact that any discussion of reunification will begin with the North's assumption that they're the ones who will be in charge.

Could there be a 3rd option that might work -- merge both governments or dissolve them both and come up with something new to govern both countries that isn't either of the two governments? What if this was put on the table as well?

 

[Checkmite]

Some are ignorantly calling for war, and others are basing their outlook on whether KJI is crazy or not on guesses, as Checkmite was.

"Guesses" in this case meaning "North Korean state media releases"...

 

[foxholeatheist]

Although that is the case the people of a united Korea would most likely still suffer from their own version of the "Mauer im Kopf" (DMZ in the head?) that you still see in Germany today.

There lots of defectors living in Seoul who unfortunately face varying levels of discrimination and distrust. They are pretty easy to tell by how they speak, like I said before, the Korean spoken by the North is a little different than the Korean spoken in the South. The vocabulary is a little different (Not many Chinese or English loan words are used in the North as they are used in the South. In fact, using English and Chinese is supposed to be a mark of education) and there is a clear North Korean accent.

When I say "varying levels of discrimination" that is everything from 'none at all' to distrust. I have never heard of a defector being assaulted though I am not saying it's never happened. There is a large population in Thailand for some reason.

UWDude asked eariler:

"Where have you got your information from? That you are so convinced that a bloody war would be the best course? It certainly has not come from visiting the Koreas, has it? Nor has it come from having family over there, or any direct relationship, and yet, here you are, clamoring for the deaths of millions, based on an opinion based on what? Where did you get your information?"

Visiting the Koreas? Well, technically I have been to both. I went to middle and high school in Seoul and anyone that takes the day trip to the DMZ gets to 'officially' stand at the north end of the negotiation table which straddles the border.

Family over there? Direct relationship? Yes and yes. My maternal family and my mother all live in South Korea. As does my wife's entire family.

I wouldn't say that I am 'clamoring' for the deaths of millions, however, I would not discard a military solution to the problem of the North. Open war between the North and the South may result in the deaths of millions. I don't see an end to the tyrannical and dangerous regime other than complete destruction of the regime. If that requires military action and all avenues of diplomacy have been exhausted (it's been over 60 years, some say they have been), than I see no other solution. The terrible and costly option of open war need not be ruled out.

So instead of berating everyone for not having the same meticulous understanding of the complex politics of the Koreas, especially the complicated relationship between the South Koreans and the USFK forces and believing all the US propaganda (I guess you're immune), I would like to hear your peaceful solution. You have demonstrated that you yourself may need to 'go study' as you told another poster a few pages ago.

I am sure you knew this already being such an expert on affairs in Korea but their media is all state controlled and the current president is fairly hawkish in regards to the North. These two factors worry my wife somewhat.

 

[BenBurch]

What if NK decides to use nuclear weapons in such a war? Would China still stay out?

I think so. I can't see where their interests are advanced by entering such a conflict.

 

[keale]

I think so. I can't see where their interests are advanced by entering such a conflict.

I honestly dont think NK is crazy enough to use nukes. They like to bark alot but have no bite. They lose alot more in any conflict essentially ending the current regime in NK. They have neither the money or resources to fight any extended war against a modern military. Yeah they could shell Seoul but they would be literally bombed into the stone age in a matter of days. So yeah they can yell and scream and throw the occasional sucker punch but I think they avoid all out war and favor self preservation.

 

[MG1962]

I wouldn't say that I am 'clamoring' for the deaths of millions, however, I would not discard a military solution to the problem of the North. Open war between the North and the South may result in the deaths of millions. I don't see an end to the tyrannical and dangerous regime other than complete destruction of the regime.

Before we take that ultimate step I would try and wait for the transition of power, and see what that tells us. We we see the wrong signals, then maybe we have to take that terrible step. Personally I am a litte more optimistic

 

[Nerd]

yeah man, they're craaaazzy! haven't you ever like, studied.. I mean, I read this TIME article once, and it said he was coming unhinged... oh... and of course, Team America, World Police, was really funny too!

craaazzy Im tellin ya! Craaazy!

Oh oh, and Ahmedinijad is Craazy! And Mossadegh was Craaaazy! And "So damn insane" was craaazy! They are all so craaazy!

Kim Jong-il is basically the epitome of a sociopath (a sign of craziness, if you didn't know). He lives in luxury with expensive foreign cars, etc. while he allows his people to starve and die out. 33% of the population are malnourished, imprisonment and torture (including sexual torture) happen systematically in concentration camps, etc. The people of North Korea are forced to worship him as a deity.
He displays an absolute void of morality and has only self-interest. These are signs of a classic case of a sociopath.
"Hes not crazy - hes just a 'sneaky fox'". Give me a break.

But I don't object to people using NWO and illuminati to reach those who think the world is simple nation states waving flags at each other. I try to eventually show them that the "grand conspiracy" is actually large groups of people working in self-interest, every now and then colluding with each other, but also still in competition with each other.

Wait - so you condone baseless paranoia in believing in irrational conspiracy theories like the NWO as a path to enlightenment? Conspiracy theories like the NWO are not based upon skepticism - they're based upon irrationality.

 

[timhau]

The reasons behind NK aggression are starting to come to light.

 

[Cuddles]

Continuing to ignore moderator warnings will result in further action, up to and including suspension or banning.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Cuddles

 

[richardm]

South Korea is to strengthen its military force on five islands close to North Korea

[South Korea] will also review military policy on the use of force, amid concerns it had become "rather passive".
...North Korea, meanwhile, has threatened further military action if South Korea continues on what it called a "path of military provocation", the North's official KCNA news agency reported.

Be interesting to see if this fizzles out, or continues to escalate.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Apparently, SK has been seeking to get access to Tac nukes

 

[UWdude]

The reasons behind NK aggression are starting to come to light.

[qimg]http://pics.kuvaton.com/kuvei/kimjongil_jr_playing_videogames.jpg[/qimg]

This cartoon highlights again the "childish" petulant stereotype of Asians, and KJI in particular so popular in American culture ever since the Philippine-American war at the turn of the 20th century. Although it is funny, it also serves a propaganda purpose, and that purpose is dehumanization and demonization.