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Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Well we know the kitchen knife was tested. The jack-knife from the bedroom was tested. From the motivations page 194:



The flick knife was confiscated at the Questura. I assume it was tested and did not yield any significant results but I do not have that information. Were there any other knives taken and tested (from either Raffaele's or Amanda's flat)? I do not know. There is a photo at PMF of the collection of the girls' knives but I do not know if they were tested.

As to the officer who took the knife from Raffaele's kitchen (and there was also a knife taken from the bedroom we know of) he might have been looking for a pointed knife. There was a large serrated knife left in the drawer so he wasn't just looking for any kitchen knife.


That's right. According to him, he was told what the murder weapon should look like.

The news in the first week following Matteini's report was that Raffaele's knife had been tested and yielded no DNA. I had always assumed they went looking for another knife after that, but they actually went looking for the kitchen knife before the reports of the test results. That's why I say it's a mystery.
 
OK, in that case I'm speechless again :) Why do you doubt it ?


Because the opposite information has been conveyed in the past -- that very few of Raffaele's knives were tested. I don't know for sure either way.
 
Notice the move at the very beginning, where the guy swings across the stone archway. Someone standing on the concrete planter adjacent to Filomena's window could grab the roof and swing across to the ledge. It would be trivial.

For the guys in the video it would be trivial. I would break every bone in my body.
When I was younger, maybe I'd only break a leg.
 
(my highlighting)

(...)

Let's try a different narrative: an intruder broke a window at the cottage and climbed through, looking for money to steal. He was surprised by Meredith coming home, and then sexually molested and killed her. This is a case where the straightforward reading of the crime scene makes perfect sense, and actually fits all of the facts without difficulty.

The confusion, and your difficulty in finding a rational way to conceive of the case, only arise when the Perugia police become involved.


No.
Let me explain you how I really see it. I think I’ve read this argument from the innocentisti a thousand times now. This idea is repeated all the time, I wish I could just state once for all I disagree with this argument.

It was in fact my earliest feeling or thought about this case, as I approached it, having yet no opinion about Amanda and Raffaele’s guilt yet, and having not read their diaries and cofession/statements, and having not seen luminol footprints and other evidence yet. The first thing I felt was a narrative based on the scenario like one intruder entered the window and climbed through and killed Meredith was not straightforward.

I make clear again one separate thought: the act of assaulting and killing Meredith is anyway not rational in any case, for a normal human perspective, not even if committed by Rudy Guede as a lone assaulter or by any person acting on somewhat rational motives. But this is not the main aspect: also, the scenario of a lone assaulter is in its peculiarlity not straightforward here, not explaining and not fitting the data, and illogical, in the building of an explanation with the evidence of this case.
This is the very first perception that I had on the case, before any in depth analysis of possible evidence against Knox and Sollecito.

The reading of the crime scene with a lone assaulter does not make perfect sense. Nor do the actions of the alleged perpetrator.

The point of entry for burglary is illogic. And dangerous especially because of the glass and the intruder’s balance. The evidence of burglary inside is inconsistent. The sexual assault is inconsistent with being caught by surprise. A murder with no sexual violence would be definitely more consistent with being caught by surprise and discovery would constitute the motive for murder. In this case, instead, the sexual violence – and the possible discovery of this – was the reason and the motive for murder. This sexual violence on Meredith is utterly illogic, and also inconsistent with Rudy’s personality. The faeces in the toilet are inconsistent even with interrupted burglary and with burglary itself, and interrupted burglary is anyway too unlikely on the too limited searching for values around the house. The sexual assault had a kind of staging occurring after, a movement of the body and partial undressing of victim: taking away her sweater after her stabbing is inconsistent, unexplained, not straightforward. Moving her without dropping her blood, using towels: unexplained/illogic, too. The sexual violence is also physically extremely moderate, aborted, contrasting with the extreme and decided violence of the killing action. And her scream, which was actually hared and reported by all witnesses including Rudy, should have started on her discovery of an intruder, even before the sexual violence, not on her killing. And Rudy Guede’s shoe-prints, instead, do show a straightforward scenario. So why a bloody bare foot? Not consistent with his being wearing shoes, and with traces of his movements in the house pointing elsewhere. And the cleanup of the floor in the bathroom is certain: somebody cleaned the floor around the bathmat and left a 26 centimetre long bloody swiping on the door side. This is inconsistent with a burglar too. And the duvet to cover the dead body: the covering is made usually when the murderer is close to the victim, here it is another useless, unmotivated, not straightforward element for a burglar, nor for a violent rapist. Further alteration of the room – that was slightly “tidied up” – is visible. Shoeprints from unknown shoes by more than one person are visible in the victim’s room and in different locations of the house.
Nothing is straightforward in a lone-perpetrator scenario.

By the way, in city of Perugia, at least two other cases of murder with a staged burglary occurred during the last four years.
 
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I would disagree with this type of statistical analysis. The different pieces of evidence should not be treated in a "serial" fashion as in a chain, but rather in a parallel fashion.

It depends if all of them need to be true or not. If they all need to be true for the prosecution to work then as a matter of logic they should be regarded in a serial rather than parallel fashion.

If only some of them need to be true then you should indeed regard them as parallel.

As I have been arguing for some time, there are several places where without a vital bit of evidence the whole prosecution case falls apart. Meredith needs to have died at 23:30 for the Massei narrative to work, and it falls apart completely if she died at 21:05, for example. It doesn't matter how many other strands Massei thought he had consistent with a 23:30 time of death.

Evidence in a criminal trial is not a chain; it is more like a rope or a cable which continues to function even when some of the individual strands are broken.

By your chain analogy, if there were 100 pieces of evidence that you were 99% sure about, certainty of guilt approaches zero.

If every single one of those pieces of evidence needed to be true for the accused to be guilty, then yes, absolutely, the odds of the accused being guilty are a mere 36.6%. (Not zero or anything close to it).

If they were all independent and redundant pieces of evidence, each of which alone could correctly convict the accused, then the odds of the accused being guilty are so close to 1.0 as makes almost no difference.
 
What do you know of him, incidentally?

As for the others, I imagine they will eventually say they were just following orders or just doing their jobs. The impetus of this going from a tragic break-in to this bizarre pornographic fantasy was Mignini, and the others are going to have to come up with pretty good explanations of why they didn't (or try harder to) put a stop to it.

All other judges are factually in a higher position or in a higher rank than Mignini.
Now, answer this question: who you think they were taking orders from?
I didn't quite understand what you mean with Mignini's impetus (and, did Judge Micheli speak of ritualistic sex game?).
I rather wonder why you just do not take these people as adults who made their decision, and why not just address them instead of Mignini. They made this trial, not Mignini's "bizarre scenarios".
 
Not only do you have to distort the facts, claiming the period in question was 9pm to 1am instead of the 12 hours 6pm to 6am from the defence apeal document, but your explanation for the activity from one post was:

does not even match Knox testimony for the night:

Nothing in the above testimony suggests that Knox or Sollecito used the computer after 9:30.

Your entire argument is based on ad hominen attacks on "guilters", while at the same time you distort facts, or just make things up which do not fit the facts of the case.

I guess I'll just have to repeat myself:

You aren't making sense. If Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito were at home from 9pm to 1am (which was my over-generous characterisation of the relevant time period, the time period in which Meredith might have been killed if we are giving the guilters a free kick about it), or if they were home for the even longer period from 6pm to 6am, either way they can't have killed Meredith Kercher. They weren't there when she died.

I guess I'll just have to repeat myself some more:

Suppose we give you a free kick and agree they lied. We'll give you another and say that throughout the entire period from 6pm to 6am while Raffaele was using the computer Amanda was worshipping Satan, reading evil comic books, playing Dungeons and Dragons and drinking the blood of a virgin goat while chanting "Death to Meredith!".

They still didn't kill Meredith because they weren't there when she died.

All you are doing here is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. If they were at Raffaele's home when Meredith was murdered, they didn't do it. They could have lied about every damned thing under the sun but they still didn't do it.

Why is that so very hard for you to grasp?
 
All other judges are factually in a higher position or in a higher rank than Mignini.
Now, answer this question: who you think they were taking orders from?
I didn't quite understand what you mean with Mignini's impetus (and, did Judge Micheli speak of ritualistic sex game?).
I rather wonder why you just do not take these people as adults who made their decision, and why not just address them instead of Mignini. They made this trial, not Mignini's "bizarre scenarios".

By impetus I mean that it was Mignini's theories and investigation that led to the case brought into court. He was the driving force behind the ridiculous idea this had to be a three person job when he could find evidence of only one.

Which of those listed had the power to retire him as prosecutor?
 
banal & unoriginal

People have been portraying me as a conspiracy theorist for the past two and a half years. Now it's my turn. I am drawing a comparison, which I believe is both fair and relevant, between those who think Amanda and Raffaele are guilty and the 9-11 truthers. This is a case in which a known burglar left his DNA on two items of the victim's clothing, on her purse, and inside her vagina. He also left bloody fingerprints and shoe prints - all inside the room where the victim was killed. Against that, we've got the bra fastener, a knife from a different location that doesn't fit the wounds, and a supremely improbable premise. And yet the Mignini truthers insist that the case is strong, the evidence is overwhelming. The bum in the park is an unimpeachable witness. The luminol footprints were clearly made with blood, despite negative TMB tests and negative DNA tests. Every one of those tests was meaningless - but a DNA test that barely registered on the machine is good science, as is one collected from a sample that was kicked around on the floor and handled by two people before being dropped in a plastic bag.

It is nonsense, every bit of it. Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito are completely innocent. They had nothing to do with the murder of Meredith Kercher. Rudy Guede smashed his way into the place, attacked Meredith with a knife, ripped her clothes off, raped her, stole her money, and left her to die. That is the truth about this case - the only truth.

OK

I have to say [for myself] the reverse is not the case. I don't see the 'Innocentsi' as being on a par with the truthers, not by a long shot.
OK there are some similarities in approach but there the comparison ends.

The 'truthers' are 'out there' - its wild, imaginative, nothing is too off the wall, new and impossible physics and weapons, along with misunderstandings of simple physics, overarching political conspiracies etc etc etc

But with the 'Innocentsi' its just banal & unoriginal - your common or garden theory about a cute white [American] chick being railroaded by nasty corrupt foreigners & the black guy did it.
Mix in some racism, chauvinism, xenophobia and white knight syndrome and you are good to go.

Top off with a lazy [infotainment driven] media and a few vultures willing to make money off the story.

Now I don't necessarily claim that any of the posters on JREF exhibit the italicized terms.
But that's the overall picture as I see it.

.
 
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By impetus I mean that it was Mignini's theories and investigation that led to the case brought into court. He was the driving force behind the ridiculous idea this had to be a three person job when he could find evidence of only one.

Which of those listed had the power to retire him as prosecutor?

Nobody has the power to take away the case from a prosecutor's hand. The only who has this power only partly, limited to specific circumstances, is the Procuratore (Chief Prosecutor) who is not in the list.
The other judges however had the power to prevent the case from going to trial. The trial was ordered by Judge Micheli, who charged Amanda and Raffaele. Their detention was decided by Claudia Matteini and by Massimo Ricciarelli.

Giancarlo Costagliola is the Prosecutor General, now working by the Appeal Court.
Not the kind who tekes orders. He is the old prosecutor you see in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3QW19jYWsU

The Proseutor General (Procuratore Generale) is not to be confused with the Chief Prosecutor (Procuratore Capo). They belong to different offices.
The Prosecutor General has the power to write judgemental reports on the work of other prosecutors like Mignini.
 
sexism

platonov,

If Amanda were a man, would the press and the public make a big deal of his having two (or even three) sexual partners since he arrived in Italy? If the answer is no (and for me it is), then what I see in this case is sexism (not racism, chauvinism, or anything else).
 
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All other judges are factually in a higher position or in a higher rank than Mignini.
Now, answer this question: who you think they were taking orders from?
I didn't quite understand what you mean with Mignini's impetus (and, did Judge Micheli speak of ritualistic sex game?).
I rather wonder why you just do not take these people as adults who made their decision, and why not just address them instead of Mignini. They made this trial, not Mignini's "bizarre scenarios".


The judges weren't taking their orders from Mignini, but they were getting their information from him. Why should they have any doubts about it? It was his job to investigate, not theirs.
 
platonov,

If Amanda were a man, would the press and the public make a big deal of his having two (or even three) sexual partners since he arrived in Italy? If the answer is no (and for me it is), then what I see in this case is sexism (not racism, chauvinism, or anything else).

Certainly the salacious aspects of the story helps it sell - doesn't alter the basic premise of the 'Innocentsi' argument, probably augments it.

The above is a short post but covers all the basics I hope.
Even if the press were calling the killers evil etc in a local case the same prurience would apply.
It sells.
The difference in this case is that the killer is to be sanctified not scorned.

.
 
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OK

I have to say [for myself] the reverse is not the case. I don't see the 'Innocentsi' as being on a par with the truthers, not by a long shot.
OK there are some similarities in approach but there the comparison ends.

The 'truthers' are 'out there' - its wild, imaginative, nothing is too off the wall, new and impossible physics and weapons, along with misunderstandings of simple physics, overarching political conspiracies etc etc etc

But with the 'Innocentsi' its just banal & unoriginal - your common or garden theory about a cute white [American] chick being railroaded by nasty corrupt foreigners & the black guy did it.
Mix in some racism, chauvinism, xenophobia and white knight syndrome and you are good to go.

Top off with a lazy [infotainment driven] media and a few vultures willing to make money off the story.

Now I don't necessarily claim that any of the posters on JREF exhibit the italicized terms.
But that's the overall picture as I see it.

.


Which do you think is more infotaining -- Guilty Amanda or Innocent Amanda? The "lazy" media have promoted both versions.
 
The judges weren't taking their orders from Mignini, but they were getting their information from him. Why should they have any doubts about it? It was his job to investigate, not theirs.

First, Manuela Comodi was actively investigating.
Second, if you think they had no reasons to have any doubts, given that it is the case thay deal directly with and the scope of their profession, how could you say other citizens should have doubts? This is an obvious contradiction. If problems and reasons for doubts exist, they would see them before and better than people who learn of the case from newspapers (reporting their work). And, they do have the power to enter the investigation, that's why they are called GIP and GUP (Judges on the Preliminary Investitation).
 
Nobody has the power to take away the case from a prosecutor's hand. The only who has this power only partly, limited to specific circumstances, is the Procuratore (Chief Prosecutor) who is not in the list.
The other judges however had the power to prevent the case from going to trial. The trial was ordered by Judge Micheli, who charged Amanda and Raffaele. Their detention was decided by Claudia Matteini and by Massimo Ricciarelli.

Giancarlo Costagliola is the Prosecutor General, now working by the Appeal Court.
Not the kind who tekes orders. He is the old prosecutor you see in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3QW19jYWsU

The Proseutor General (Procuratore Generale) is not to be confused with the Chief Prosecutor (Procuratore Capo). They belong to different offices.
The Prosecutor General has the power to write judgemental reports on the work of other prosecutors like Mignini.

I had a feeling you might say that. I suspect some systems suffer without a reasonable check on the power of certain individuals, and that can lead to debacles like this. It seems Micheli would be the one most involved after Mignini, would that be a fair assessment?

Is that Giancarlo Costagliola at the left roughly 41 seconds into the video?
 
(...)
If every single one of those pieces of evidence needed to be true for the accused to be guilty, then yes, absolutely, the odds of the accused being guilty are a mere 36.6%. (Not zero or anything close to it).
(...)

I'm afraid you mistook all your statistic calculations till now ....

If three facts are found, each of them with the probability of 60% of being true, the odds that this finding is just a random result is only 6,4%.
Therefore, the odds that the result is not casual, and thus has a meaning in terms of confirmation, is 93,6%.
 
But with the 'Innocentsi' its just banal & unoriginal - your common or garden theory about a cute white [American] chick being railroaded by nasty corrupt foreigners & the black guy did it.
Mix in some racism, chauvinism, xenophobia and white knight syndrome and you are good to go.

Top off with a lazy [infotainment driven] media and a few vultures willing to make money off the story.

Now I don't necessarily claim that any of the posters on JREF exhibit the italicized terms.
But that's the overall picture as I see it.

.

Have you considered the possibility that just because you don't like a group, or what you perceive as their motivations, they still might be right?
 
I had a feeling you might say that. I suspect some systems suffer without a reasonable check on the power of certain individuals, and that can lead to debacles like this. It seems Micheli would be the one most involved after Mignini, would that be a fair assessment?

Is that Giancarlo Costagliola at the left roughly 41 seconds into the video?

No, he is at 5 seconds at the beginning.

Sorry! I got the wrong person and the wrong video. I cheched this trial, the prosecutor here is Giancarlo Petrazzini. Costagliola is in the appeal, i don't know if I find a video...
 
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You are invited to join my conversation with self in an effort to calculate a probability for guilt. Refer to previous posts on this page.

Psbi = Probability of the break-in being staged
Pcg = Probability of collusion with Guede

My last post was an attempt to calculate the probability of collusion with Guede. Since there was no evidence in the murder room, the evidence is slight. Perhaps the only evidence is the bra clasp and that doesn't implicate Amanda except by vague association.

If the break-in was NOT staged, then the probability of collusion seems to drop to zero. However, even if the break-in were staged it still doesn't prove that there was collusion; they may have gotten spooked having seen the dead body that morning.

Pcg = what?

the guessing game of the broken window, as for staging I remain open minded to idea that Rudy could benefit by confusing the scene too. It's not uncommon for the murderer to splatter blood around and knock things over to confuse the inevitable investigation, some go as far as burning the house down.
Rudy could have broken the window from the inside, after he rummaged through things.
 
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