CME's, active regions and high energy flares

It is useful as a descriptive term, i.e. a dark filament is dark against a lighter background in a certain passband.
Whether it is meaningful in other terms is doubtful.
It suggests that the filament is generally lower in temperature than the background and nearby "light" filaments. This may or may not have physical implications.

And that's different from your "dark" invisible friends in what way exactly?

At least I can actually see that the filament is "dark" compared to the rest of the image, and it also emits light (unlike your invisible buddies).
 
So what? They are clearly rendered as dark in the image Michael Mozina!
Ya, because they are clearly darker than the rest of the image. :)

If the authors had selected to render them as light areas then they would be "light filaments"!

Um only if they reversed the image (created a negative out of it), otherwise it will always be darker than the rest of the image.


Rendered, Michael. If those people who designed the rendering system, the people who unlike you, are actually qualified to understand solar imagery, if they had chosen to render areas of a certain thermal range in green fading to pink where the thermal characteristics moved away from the optimum, then you'd be looking at green and pink instead of light and dark. Dark is a human convenience. It is where the material in the images is hotter or cooler than the areas which are rendered as lighter.

We aren't "guessing" because that is what they're actually looking for with the IDL software RC.


You are guessing since the authors didn't specify. You, Michael, are guessing, as you seem to do with most every claim you make about most every image you dangle out here. Remember, your qualifications to understand solar imagery, of any sort, processed in any way, presented in any form, have been challenged, and you have shown that you are not qualified to understand anything about them.

It's right where the dark filament was RC. I showed you where to find it in the original 211 and 335A images that I posted. That dark filament is the *CAUSE* of the eruption and that was the "key observation' that led to my prediction. The filament had not yet reached the point of 'explosion' at that point, but it had started moving away from the surface at an increasing rate. That was my "clue".


So again you looked at a picture where there was some activity on the Sun, and you "predicted" that there would be more activity there. What is special, unique, or even interesting about seeing something that exists and declaring that it will continue to exist?
 
Rendered, Michael. If those people who designed the rendering system, the people who unlike you, are actually qualified to understand solar imagery, if they had chosen to render areas of a certain thermal range in green fading to pink where the thermal characteristics moved away from the optimum, then you'd be looking at green and pink instead of light and dark. Dark is a human convenience. It is where the material in the images is hotter or cooler than the areas which are rendered as lighter.

What utter and complete hogwash. In reality, the "darker" plasma simply emits fewer photons. How you process the image is irrelevant. It's still "dark" simply because it emits fewer photons at that wavelength than the rest of the plasma in the image. PERIOD.

You are guessing since the authors didn't specify.

Um, no, I'm not guessing. The authors even provided an actual example of two images (on the page I specified earlier in the thread) to show how they determined a "hit". The darkened filament was the thing they were measuring and a "hit" was denoted by the disappearance of the darkened filament. There's no 'guess' involved.

You, Michael, are guessing, as you seem to do with most every claim you make about most every image you dangle out here. Remember, your qualifications to understand solar imagery, of any sort, processed in any way, presented in any form, have been challenged, and you have shown that you are not qualified to understand anything about them.

Well, unlike you "babe", this trained pig has accurately predicted a CME 4+ hours *BEFORE* it showed in up LASCO/COR images. That's more than you can do.

So again you looked at a picture where there was some activity on the Sun, and you "predicted" that there would be more activity there.

No, I recognized a clear pattern that relates to "cause/effect" relationships of CME's. That pattern is something I've seen before and one that I recognize as a "trigger" of CME's. I isolated the dark filament a different way, but the 'change over time' of the filament was the "observation" that led to the 'prediction" of the CME. At the moment I 'predicted" it, the CME hadn't even "happened" yet since the CME actually occurs once the material in that thread reaches a high enough point in the atmosphere to "explode". The filament at the time was well defined and well constrained to a very small location.

What is special, unique, or even interesting about seeing something that exists and declaring that it will continue to exist?

Observation has and always will be a key part of "science", as is "pattern recognition". The important part is "learning" the "pattern recognition' that enables one to "predict" events in the future. I'll concede that a "trained pig" might even actually be able to "do it" with enough training, but then that pattern recognition is what you're trying to teach the pig. ;)
 
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http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/dailymov/2010/10/13/20101013_1024_0193.mpg

How important are those dark filaments in "predicting" CME's and flares? Well, consider the flare on the 13th. If you look very closely at this 193A movie of the flare, you'll notice that a few hours prior to the flare, a dark ribbon can be see rising up from the surface about a half hour above the active region on the clock at about the 10:00 position. As that ribbon reaches the outer limits of the visually ionized plasma corona, the "flare" energy jumps from the active region toward the darkened material exiting at the top of (above) the visible corona.

CME prediction is all about "pattern recognition".
 
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What utter and complete hogwash. In reality, the "darker" plasma simply emits fewer photons. How you process the image is irrelevant. It's still "dark" simply because it emits fewer photons at that wavelength than the rest of the plasma in the image. PERIOD.


At that wavelength, yes.

Um, no, I'm not guessing. The authors even provided an actual example of two images (on the page I specified earlier in the thread) to show how they determined a "hit". The darkened filament was the thing they were measuring and a "hit" was denoted by the disappearance of the darkened filament. There's no 'guess' involved.


When you see activity on the Sun and "predict" that there will be more activity, it's just about as amazing as seeing the radar image showing a rain storm an hour away and heading towards Cleveland and "predicting" that it's going to rain in Cleveland. Big deal.

Well, unlike you "babe", this trained pig has accurately predicted a CME 4+ hours *BEFORE* it showed in up LASCO/COR images. That's more than you can do.


Your ongoing incivility and repeated personal attacks are noted.

No, I recognized a clear pattern that relates to "cause/effect" relationships of CME's. That pattern is something I've seen before and one that I recognize as a "trigger" of CME's. I isolated the dark filament a different way, but the 'change over time' of the filament was the "observation" that led to the 'prediction" of the CME. At the moment I 'predicted" it, the CME hadn't even "happened" yet since the CME actually occurs once the material in that thread reaches a high enough point in the atmosphere to "explode". The filament at the time was well defined and well constrained to a very small location.


It's not a trigger of a CME. It's a symptom of the magnetic disturbances. Simple scientific concept. But then your qualifications to understand the process of science at any level have been challenged, and you haven't been able to demonstrate that you have any sort of qualifications in that regard.

Observation has and always will be a key part of "science", as is "pattern recognition". The important part is "learning" the "pattern recognition' that enables one to "predict" events in the future. I'll concede that a "trained pig" might even actually be able to "do it" with enough training, but then that pattern recognition is what you're trying to teach the pig. ;)


You're getting close. You see activity on the Sun and "predict" that some activity, which already exists, will continue to be activity. As we've said so many times in this thread, so what? Why is that interesting in any way?
 
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/dailymov/2010/10/13/20101013_1024_1600.mpg

What was pretty cool about this flare is that you can see the effect of the flare on the surface of the photosphere, and you can see the direction of mass flow at that location (away from the surface) in the 1600A images at 16:05:54. You can actually see the material light up the photosphere as it passes through it, lifting material into the atmosphere as it goes.
 
At that wavelength, yes.

So it's just "darker". Period. It's also darker in 193A, 221A and 335A.

When you see activity on the Sun and "predict" that there will be more activity, it's just about as amazing as seeing the radar image showing a rain storm an hour away and heading towards Cleveland and "predicting" that it's going to rain in Cleveland. Big deal.

With your attitude, what's the purpose of building equipment at all? If you don't intend to "observe" things, and "predict" things from those observations, why bother building it at all?

Your ongoing incivility and repeated personal attacks are noted.

It's not a personal attack, it's a statement of fact. You claimed a trained pig could predict CME's. For the sake of argument I'd even be willing to concede that point *PROVIDED* that the pig is capable of "pattern recognition".

It's not a trigger of a CME. It's a symptom of the magnetic disturbances.

No, that's where you're just wrong. It's a physical "trigger".

Simple scientific concept. But then your qualifications to understand the process of science at any level have been challenged, and you haven't been able to demonstrate that you have any sort of qualifications in that regard.

I've shown that I can predict a CME 4+ hours before hand, inside of a three hour window, and you have not. What does that say about your qualifications?

You're getting close. You see activity on the Sun and "predict" that some activity, which already exists, will continue to be activity. As we've said so many times in this thread, so what? Why is that interesting in any way?

It's "interesting" because there is a direct "cause/effect" relationship to those "rising dark filaments" and flares/CME's. What's also interesting is your denial of that fact. :)
 
If you look closely in the 335A images, there is a dark filament that has formed in the center of the disk that just rotated past center in that movie. That region also seems to flaring and producing unstable movements in that dark filament as well. This could be a "two-fer" CME/Flare day. :)
 
And that's different from your "dark" invisible friends in what way exactly?
I do not have any "dark" invisible friends (you may but you don't often write like a 5 year old child :rolleyes:).
Dark matter and dark energy are called dark for the simple resaon that they are no observed to emit light.
Dark fliaments are called dark because they appear dark in specific wavelengths against their background. Of course a dark filament that is dark in one passband may not be dark in another.
 
It's right where the dark filament was RC. I showed you where to find it in the original 211 and 335A images that I posted.
You have posted no images of the CME from the 12 Sep 2000 eruption (EFR).
You have not shown us your calculation for the time of the CME from the 12 Sep 2000 eruption.
Read the question:
P.S.
 
How well does your method work for the 14 OCt 2010 SDO move

(Now a 82 MB file!)
Michael Mozina:
First asked 16 Oct 2010
According to you, there is a dark filament region (lots of dark filaments) in that 193A movie for 14 Oct 2010 so here is a chance for your method to really shine :D!
Where are your predictions for the CME related to these dark filaments?
 
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How do you tell the difference between CME producing dark filaments and others

Michael Mozina
First asked 16 Oct 2010
A follow-on to How well does your method work for the 14 OCt 2010 SDO move?

There should be lots of predictions since so far your assertion seems to be that every dark filament produces a CME. But maybe you do not mean that. In that case there are 2 kinds of dark filaments
  • Ones that come before CME (and maybe flares).
  • Ones that do not come before CME.
How do you tell the difference between CME producing dark filaments and non-CME producing dark filaments?
 
So it's just "darker". Period. It's also darker in 193A, 221A and 335A.


It's darker in some wavelengths, yes.

With your attitude, what's the purpose of building equipment at all? If you don't intend to "observe" things, and "predict" things from those observations, why bother building it at all?


With my attitude? If you don't intend to apply legitimate science to those observations, analyze the data quantitatively using real measurements which involve real numbers, yes those terrifyingly scary mathematical numbers, indeed why bother? The scientists responsible for the solar research programs do apply science quantitatively. That's why.

Start here: Regarding those filaments, How light? How dark? For what durations? Which filaments, quantitatively, by what measurements, described in real numbers, are going to precede the CMEs, by how long? What quantitative measurement of light/dark difference is involved? Increasing, decreasing? By how much, in numbers? If you can't answer those quantitative concerns, your "prediction" is just a wild guess.

It's not a personal attack, it's a statement of fact. You claimed a trained pig could predict CME's. For the sake of argument I'd even be willing to concede that point *PROVIDED* that the pig is capable of "pattern recognition".


No, I didn't claim a pig could predict CMEs, so of course your statement above is not true. I said a trained pig could recognize the difference between an image showing activity and one which is not. Although a pig's visual capabilities are different than a monkeys', a dolphin's, or a human's, if you process the image with a sharp enough contrast a pig can see the difference. And your use of derogatory nicknames when addressing me or referring to me, although apparently deemed acceptable behavior by the admins, is a personal attack.

No, that's where you're just wrong. It's a physical "trigger".


You lack the necessary qualifications to understand the concept of triggering, the sequence of cause and effect. When the wind picks up ahead of a thunderstorm, that wind does not trigger the storm. It is not the cause of the storm. So link to the documentation that supports your claim that the dark filaments you observe are triggering, causing, or initiating the CMEs, or your claim can be dismissed as another of your simple unsupported assertions.

I've shown that I can predict a CME 4+ hours before hand, inside of a three hour window, and you have not. What does that say about your qualifications?


I've showed that by using the same technique I can predict rain within a much tighter time frame and apply that prediction to a much more specific location. You see some activity and "predict" it will continue. Child's play.

It's "interesting" because there is a direct "cause/effect" relationship to those "rising dark filaments" and flares/CME's. What's also interesting is your denial of that fact. :)


Again I'll remind you that your qualifications to understand science have been challenged, and you have yet to demonstrate that you possess the qualifications necessary to understand the scientific concept of cause and effect. Since you are unable or unwilling to offer legitimate scientific support that the rising dark filaments cause the flares and CMEs, scientifically, quantitatively, and objectively, it would be a mistake or a lie to claim it as a fact. Consequently this is another of your claims that can be dismissed without further consideration.
 
(Now a 82 MB file!)
Michael Mozina:
First asked 16 Oct 2010
According to you, there is a dark filament region (lots of dark filaments) in that 193A movie for 14 Oct 2010 so here is a chance for your method to really shine :D!
Where are your predictions for the CME related to these dark filaments?

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2.mpg

FYI, in filament eruption, "size matters". Local eruptions of small, localized filaments tend to result in small, localized mass ejections that follow very narrow paths away from the sun. That last filament eruption resulted in no more than wee bit of extra mass flowing outbound along an already active mass flow path away from the sun.

Exactly what kind of "predictions" would you like? I "predict" that every time that one of these darkened filaments "erupts" over a large enough area, it will result in mass ejections. The larger the filament, the larger the eruption. :)
 
Michael Mozina
First asked 16 Oct 2010
A follow-on to How well does your method work for the 14 OCt 2010 SDO move?

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0193.mpg

Let's see, shall we? Notice the 2:00 position where the dark filaments are forming moving upwards into the atmosphere. When they get high enough up into the atmosphere, they actually started "interacting", but kept drifting higher in the ionized corona. Once the combined filaments/threads move high enough away from the surface, they begin to flow away from the sun at an ever increasing rate, and "snap" outward away from the sun. The combined filament was actually very small, very localized, and it was composed of two "twister" like filaments that combined to 'flare' in a small, localized direction. Compared the the earlier CME, the thread was 'small'. the affected area was more limited and the amount of darkened plasma involved was much smaller.

Not only does the method "work", it has the ability to offer us some insight into the "size" and direction of the mass flow emissions we're likely to see in later Lasco images. I'd say it works pretty well.

FYI, I'm not suggesting that "all" dark filaments lead to flares or CME's, only the ones that rise high enough into the ionized atmosphere do so, and much depends electromagnetic interactions between the surface and the heliosphere.

The point to note here is that "size matters" in terms of dark filament eruptions, and there is a one to one correlation between the mass ejections we observe in specific directions from the surface, and the movement of these darkened filaments, many hours in advance of the ejection of matter.
 
No, I didn't claim a pig could predict CMEs, so of course your statement above is not true. I said a trained pig could recognize the difference between an image showing activity and one which is not.

Who cares? Some "activity" leads to flares and CME's, some does not. The whole purpose of this thread is to figure out and discuss the "cause/effect" relationships between what we observe and CME's and flares. I've explained one of those cause/effect relationships now (which is more than you have done), and I've used that "method" to successfully 'predict' something useful (which is again more than you have done).

And your use of derogatory nicknames when addressing me or referring to me, although apparently deemed acceptable behavior by the admins, is a personal attack.

OMG do you have a "thin skin" for someone that dishes out personal attacks in nearly every post. You have absolutely no idea what the term "civil conversation" even means, and I've seen you use your same "techniques" on other individuals in other threads on other topics too. For the record, I called us both "trained pigs". You're a tad thin skinned considering your debate style.

You lack the necessary qualifications to understand the concept of triggering, the sequence of cause and effect. When the wind picks up ahead of a thunderstorm, that wind does not trigger the storm. It is not the cause of the storm. So link to the documentation that supports your claim that the dark filaments you observe are triggering, causing, or initiating the CMEs, or your claim can be dismissed as another of your simple unsupported assertions.

I want to be crystal clear before we go any further. Are you *DENYING* that there is a direct cause/effect link between "dark filaments" and at least some mass ejections (large and small)?
 
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EM CME/Flare "Prediction"

Ok, I'm going to go out on a limb and 'predict' an EM type of 'flare/cme" from the "hot spot" forming in the southern region. It hasn't "blown' yet, but if you look at the active region in the southern hemisphere, it's formed a roundish looking 'hot spot' that has grown in activity over the past 48 hours. I predict we'll see an EM flare from that region over the next 48 hours. If the size of the active region is useful in predicting the size of the mass ejection in the flare or CME, this EM eruption is likely to be "big".

I want to be clear that this is a prediction about a "different" kind of flare/CME than the "dark filament' variety we've been discussing. It's a more difficult thing to predict in terms of "timing" compared to dark filament flares, but the concept is essentially the same. We're looking for "change over time" and that hot spot has been steadily 'building', and it's located inside of a very active region.
 

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