CME's, active regions and high energy flares

[GeeMack]

FYI: Michael Mozina is lying.

It has been demonstrated time and again, supported by many examples, that this is a fact.

 

[D'rok]

FYI: Michael Mozina is lying.
There is no mention of "dark plasma ribbons" in the abstract or paper (PDF).

In fact it is the other way around - they looked for flares (brightening):

Unsurprising, but still kinda disappointing.

 

[Michael Mozina]

Unsurprising, but still kinda disappointing.

IMO what is "disappointing" is the amount of "personal attack" nonsense that goes on. It's pointless. It's bad enough that I must educate you (and them) in something like solar physics on a public forum, but I have to do so with a couple of ignorant personal attack dogs nipping at my heals. It's a pitiful debate tactic on their part, but it's the only thing they "understand" evidently.

http://www.bbso.njit.edu/Images/image971029.jpg

This is a BBSO H-alpha image like the kind used in their analysis. Notice those "light" and "dark" regions? Those are the same light and dark areas you might find in a 335A SDO image as well. When those H-alpha threads "change" (actually disappear), their IDL software program (same software I used to create that RD movie) evidently "flagged" that region. In the same sense, when the dark ribbon in the 335A SDO images changes, that too becomes "interesting" to me. I do have to make one correction however. It does seem to appear as though their method takes into account the directional component of the thread, although I'm unclear how they achieved that based on comparing only 1 image from a 24 hour time slot.

FYI, these "flowing ribbons of plasma" are also visible in HeII images (304A SDO images), although they are not as "dark" as they appear in the 335A SDO images and therefore the contrast is more difficult to work with in terms of isolating key areas via a computer software program.

Their "method" and my "method" are essentially the same. We're looking for dark patches that change over time. We both are only interested in movements AWAY FROM the sun, and we are both interested in those dark regions, as well as the light regions, particularly when they come into near alignment, or a "close" to one another.

 

[Michael Mozina]

Warning: This SDO 335A movie is 33MB in size:

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0335.mpg

If you download this movie and watch it for a bit, there are now at least three "areas of interest" on our side of the sun, two "active" regions, and one "dark filament" region.

The "active" regions are easy to spot of course. There's one in the southern hemisphere at about the 6:00 position, one that just flared yesterday at about the 9:00 position. The "dark ribbon" region is located at about the 1:15 position near the northern pole. The two active areas are both capable of EM type "flare" events that can lead to CME's. The dark ribbon region can lead to a completely different type of CME and it's not necessarily directly related to any particular active region. When "large" dark ribbons stop flowing in their loop pattern, and begin to move away from the sun, *THAT* is the kind of thing that generates CME's of the "dark ribbon" variety. The active region flare/CME's are more easily to spot because they become "bright" in the higher energy wavelengths when EM flares occur. They produce x-ray (and high energy) spikes that are easy to spot by a variety of solar satellites. Predicting "when" these EM flares might occur is tricky, but there are 'signs' as well. The EM flares are caused by active regions that become "unstable". By "unstable", I mean that the energy flow is no longer consistent. An example of this process is occurring right now in the active region in the lower hemisphere. There are "point flashes" occurring a the bases of the coronal loops, and the loops themselves are becoming "hotter/brighter" in the image. This started to happen a couple of hours ago. That region is capable of producing some pretty good flares, and the fact it's become "unstable" over the past few hours is a good indicator that it's worth keeping an eye on that region. Since it's also facing directly at us now, that's another good reason to keep an eye on it.

IMO we have two active regions that might both produce additional flares over the next few days, and one "dark ribbon' type flare possibility in the northern hemisphere. So far at least, none of them looks particularly 'promising' in terms of immediate action, but I'm keeping my eye on all three regions.

 

[GeeMack]

Warning: This SDO 335A movie is 33MB in size: *blah blah blah*

Woohoo. Another video showing some activity so you can predict there will be some activity where there is already some activity. What is it about this nonsense that you think is important, interesting, special, or unique? Or are you just blathering to waste time?

 

[Michael Mozina]

75 MB!

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0193.mpg

One of the really remarkable design aspects of SDO is it's ability to take very high cadence images at very high resolution. Systems like SOHO were limited to images about 10-12 minutes apart and 1 megapixel resolution. This 193A image from SDO gives us a chance to see the flow of mass inside coronal loops in very fine detail. It shows the footprint changes very clearly and shows the flow of mass in vivid detail. The more I learn about SDO, the more impressed I become. It's an awesome new system and I'm convinced it's already changing solar physics as we know it. I'm really impressed with the higher cadence images and the fine detail that is present in these images. SDO is really quite a quantum leap in solar physics technology.

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/614/2/1054/pdf/60164.web.pdf

FYI D'rok, if you look at page 1059, they have a good image of what they call an "eruptive filament". They're talking specifically about changes to that darkened filament.

 

[Michael Mozina]

A question for ben (or anyone)

Those H-Alpha images reminded me of something that I could use your help with. I'm trying to determine the elemental composition of that dark erupting filament. Based on what I've seen in the SDO images I can see that whatever it's made of, it efficiently blocks/absorbs light from H-Alpha, it doesn't seem to have much effect on 131A, 1600A or 1700A, but it does efficiently absorb 193A, 211A and particularly 335A photons. For a variety of other reasons, I'm leaning toward carbon, but I need to be sure that is consistent with the absorption pattern and I'm afraid that's a bit out of my realm of expertise.

 

[Michael Mozina]

I'm not sure it it helps, but the filament also seems to only mildly interact with HeII photons, or at least the filament is less "dark' in the 304A wavelength, but it is still visible.

 

[Mister Earl]

Uh. Is this another science-from-pictures thread?

 

[Michael Mozina]

Uh. Is this another science-from-pictures thread?

No, it's a "prediction (of CME's) from pictures" thread.

 

[Reality Check]

Can your "method" do a postdiction using an obvious dark filament in the past

If you download this movie and watch it for a bit, there are now at least three "areas of interest" on our side of the sun, two "active" regions, and one "dark filament" region.

Rather than relying on Michael Mozina's flights of fancy and dumb use of quotes, I suggest that people look at the SolarMonitor web site that is run by actual scientists:

• Active region 11112 is still around.
• There is a new active region 11113.

Since there is no such thing as MM's "dark fliament region" (proper use of quotes!), they do not list them.

In case any one is interested (not you MM of course):
Dark filaments are plasma filiaments that appear dark against the solar disk in a specific passband (a filtered range of wavelengths) of the telescope. I emphasis the specific passband part because

• A filament that is dark in one passband can be light in another passband.
• A filament that is light in one passband can be dark in another passband.

The standard wavelength used to observe dark filaments seems to be H alpha line of the solar spectrum at 6562.8 A.

The APOD site has a great picture of a dark filament captured on May 18, 2010.

Suspended by magnetic fields above a solar active region this dark filament stretches over 40 earth-diameters. The ominous structure appears to be frozen in time near the Sun's edge, but solar filaments are unstable and often erupt. The detailed scene was captured on May 18 in extreme ultraviolet light by cameras on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. While the cooler plasma of the filament looks dark, hotter, brighter plasma below traces magnetic field lines emerging from the active region. When seen arcing above the edge of the Sun, filaments actually look bright against the dark background of space and are called prominences.

Michael Mozina
First asked 15 October 2010
That is a rather big dark filament. Obviously your really, really scientific method will give us the probability of and time frame for the CME that it may have created. So

1. How probable was a CME event from this observation of a dark filament?
2. When would the CME event have happened?
3. Did a CME event happen?

 

[Reality Check]

http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/614/2/1054/pdf/60164.web.pdf

FYI D'rok, if you look at page 1059, they have a good image of what they call an "eruptive filament". They're talking specifically about changes to that darkened filament.

FYI D'rok, if you look (and read which MM has obviously not) the paper, you will see that there is no mention of dark filaments.
They are talking specifically about changes in the magnetic fileld during the eruption of a eruptive flare ribbon (EFR). They ignore the filament other than noting it erupted.

EFRs often occur in active regions and play a significant role in filament eruptions and flare production (Liggett & Zirin 1985; Feynman & Martin 1995). The relation between filament eruptions and new flux emergence is shown in column (7) of Table 1. Figure 1 shows an example of two magnetic bipoles (enclosed in the boxes) emerging alongside a filament on 2000 September 12. The two top panels are Halpha images obtained at KSO and BBSO, respectively, taken before and after the filament eruption. The eruption began at about 11:10 UT and was followed by a classical two-ribbon flare. Examining a sequence of MDI magnetograms, we found that these bipoles started to appear at 06:23 UT on the positive polarity side of the filament and continued to develop after the eruption.

 

[D'rok]

FYI D'rok, if you look (and read which MM has obviously not) the paper, you will see that there is no mention of dark filaments.
They are talking specifically about changes in the magnetic fileld during the eruption of a eruptive flare ribbon (EFR). They ignore the filament other than noting it erupted.

I don't understand why Michael has to invent his own terminology. What's the matter with using standard reference terms? Is a "dark filament" even a meaningful term at all?

 

[Michael Mozina]

FYI D'rok, if you look (and read which MM has obviously not) the paper, you will see that there is no mention of dark filaments.

So what? They are clearly "dark" in the image RC!

They are talking specifically about changes in the magnetic fileld during the eruption of a eruptive flare ribbon (EFR). They ignore the filament other than noting it erupted.

What is your problem RC? Those EFR's that they (you) are talking about are "dark" in the H-Alpha images, aren't they? They are the same "dark" filaments that I'm looking at in the 335A images that I'm working with. They use the "disappearance" of those dark filaments as a "detection" and that's the whole basis of their determination of a 'detection'. It's exactly the same basic "trigger mechanism", only I am specifically looking at the volume of the filament and the direction of movement of the filament, and the rate of moment of the filament away from the surface. It looks to me like they only considered the filaments that moved away from the sun, although the IDL software seems to only compare two daily images, so I'm not sure how they decide a directional component.

The filaments are there, and they are dark. They expand away from the sun and "explode'. Whether we identify them in H-Alpha, or some other wavelength is totally irrelevant, the process of identifying the "dark" filament is still the same.

 

[Michael Mozina]

I don't understand why Michael has to invent his own terminology. What's the matter with using standard reference terms?

You mean like trying to use the term "photosphere" when I don't even believe that surface to be "opaque"? I'm afraid astronomy is *LOADED* with stupid terms, like "magnetic reconnection" for instance.

Is a "dark filament" even a meaningful term at all?

It's a plasma filament. It's dark. Ya, I would say it's a meaningful term.

 

[Reality Check]

Can your "method" do a postdiction from the 12 Sep 2000 dark filament

So what? They are clearly "dark" in the image RC!

So what? They are clearly rendered as dark in the image Michael Mozina!
If the authors had selected to render them as light areas then they would be "light filaments"!

What is your problem RC? Those EFR's that they (you) are talking about are "dark" in the H-Alpha images, aren't they? They are the same "dark" filaments that I'm looking at in the 335A images that I'm working with.

The authors do not mark the position of any EFR in the images. All they say is that there was an EFR.
We can guess that the EFR is the dark streak across the center of the first image. But that is all it is - a guess.
If we are right then the EFR was rendered as dark.
That means that according to you there was a CME from it.

They use the "disappearance" of those dark filaments as a "detection"

No they do not say that.
They say that the eruption was observed, e.g. to start at 11:10 UT.

The filaments are there, and they are dark. They expand away from the sun and "explode'. Whether we identify them in H-Alpha, or some other wavelength is totally irrelevant, the process of identifying the "dark" filament is still the same.

Eruptive filaments expand away from the sun and explode.

The way to identify a dark filament is to ask an astronomer

1. What the definiton of a dark filament is.
2. How to identify a dark filament.

Relying on your imagination to identify someting that you call a dark filament is obviously delusional.

First asked 15 October 2010
Michael Mozina
But let us assume that the EFR is a dark filament then the obvious question is: Where and when was the CME according to your method?
You wll have to tell us where the region was but that should be simple for someone with your expertise. It would be interesting to see whether the CME headed for the Earth or not.

P.S.

• What is your methodogy that gives you the numbers that you quote?
  (First asked 12 October 2010)
• Can your "method" do a postdiction using an obvious dark filament in the past

 

[Reality Check]

It's a plasma filament. It's dark. Ya, I would say it's a meaningful term.

It is useful as a descriptive term, i.e. a dark filament is dark against a lighter background in a certain passband.
Whether it is meaningful in other terms is doubtful.
It suggests that the filament is generally lower in temperature than the background and nearby "light" filaments. This may or may not have physical implications.

 

[GeeMack]

It's a plasma filament. It's dark. Ya, I would say it's a meaningful term.

It's dark in some wavelengths, which means it's cooler or hotter than the optimum thermal characteristics observed at those wavelengths.

 

[Michael Mozina]

So what? They are clearly rendered as dark in the image Michael Mozina!

Ya, because they are clearly darker than the rest of the image.

If the authors had selected to render them as light areas then they would be "light filaments"!

Um only if they reversed the image (created a negative out of it), otherwise it will always be darker than the rest of the image.

The authors do not mark the position of any EFR in the images. All they say is that there was an EFR.
We can guess that the EFR is the dark streak across the center of the first image. But that is all it is - a guess.

We aren't "guessing" because that is what they're actually looking for with the IDL software RC.

But let us assume that the EFR is a dark filament then the obvious question is: Where and when was the CME according to your method?

It's right where the dark filament was RC. I showed you where to find it in the original 211 and 335A images that I posted. That dark filament is the *CAUSE* of the eruption and that was the "key observation' that led to my prediction. The filament had not yet reached the point of 'explosion' at that point, but it had started moving away from the surface at an increasing rate. That was my "clue".