I'm sorry you find my comments boring. Perhaps I should point out that you have no obligation to read them, much less respond. But since you did respond, I will do likewise.
It happens that others besides ourselves are concerned with the problem of resolving anecdotal information into something that is generally useful. One such individual is Gregg McCrary, a retired FBI agent who contributed to a book called Criminal Investigative Failures. McCrary has studied confessions to figure out how it is possible to determine whether they are true or false. His conclusion is as follows:
To be considered reliable, a confession must have both internal and external validity; that is, it must be consistent with itself and with the external evidence. Professional law enforcement investigators understand that a confession is not an end to the investigation, as it must then be subjected to a vigorous follow-up investigation. A true confession typically contains a wealth of specific details that not only are consistent with the crime and the crime scene, but also includes new information beyond what is known by investigators. A confession's validity is strengthened through corroboration; it is weakend when the evidence does not support its claims.
With that in mind, here are Amanda's statements of November 6, 2007.
1:45: Last Thursday 1st November, day on which I usually work, while I was in the apartment of my boyfriend Raffaele, at about 20.30 I received a message from Patrick on my mobile, telling me that that evening the pub would remain closed because there were no people, therefore I didn’t have to go to work.
I replied to the message saying that we would meet immediately, therefore I went out telling my boyfriend that I had to go to work. I wish to state first that in the afternoon I had smoked a joint with Raffaele, therefore I felt confused because I do not usually make use of narcotics nor harder drugs.
I met Patrick soon after at the basketball court of Piazza Grimana and we went home. I do not remember if Meredith was already there or if she came later. I find it difficult to remember those moments but Patrick had sex with Meredith with whom he was infatuated but I do not remember well if Meredith had been threatened before. I vaguely remember that he killed her.
5:45: I wish to relate spontaneously what happened because these events have deeply bothered me and I am really afraid of Patrick, the African boy who owns the pub called “Le Chic” located in Via Alessi where I work periodically. I met him in the evening of November 1st 2007, after sending him a reply message saying “I will see you”. We met soon after at about 21.00 at the basketball court of Piazza Grimana. We went to my apartment in Via della Pergola n. 7. I do not clearly remember if Meredith was already at home or if she came later, what I can say is that Patrick and Meredith went into Meredith’s room, while I think I stayed in the kitchen. I cannot remember how long they stayed together in the room but I can only say that at a certain point I heard Meredith screaming and as I was scared I plugged up my hears. Then I do not remember anything, I am very confused. I do not remember if Meredith was screaming and if I heard some thuds too because I was upset, but I imagined what could have happened.
Let's itemize the assertions in these statements and score their accuracy according to what we know.
1:45:
1. Patrick told Amanda not to come to work because the pub would remain closed. T/F: False, because we know now that he was there all night and the place was open.
2. Amanda told Raffaele she was leaving to go to work. T/F: False, according to the authorities, because Raffaele is in prison too.
3. Amanda smoked a joint in the afternoon with Raffaele. T/F: True.
4. Amanda does not usually make use of narcotics or harder drugs. T/F: True if you believe her and the people who know her; false if you believe Peter Quennell.
5. Amanda met Patrick at the basketball court. T/F: False.
6. Amanda went to her apartment with Patrick. T/F: False.
7. Amanda doesn't remember if Meredith was home or came home later. T/F: Unknown.
8. Patrick had sex with Meredith. T/F: False.
9. Patrick killed Meredith. T/F: False.
5:45:
10. Amanda is afraid of Patrick. T/F: Unknown.
11. Patrick owns a pub. T/F: True.
12. Patrick and Meredith went into Meredith's room. T/F: False.
13. Amanda stayed in the kitchen. T/F: Unknown.
14. Amanda heard Meredith scream. T/F: Unknown.
15. Amanda plugged her ears. T/F: Unknown.
16. Amanda doesn't remember anything after the point where she plugged her ears. T/F: Unknown.
17. Amanda doesn't remember if she heard any thuds. T/F: Unknown.
18. Amanda imagined what could have happened. T/F: Unknown.
Of these 18 assertions, seven are known to be false. Two or three are known to be true, but they don't relate to what happened that night. The rest may or may not be true, depending on what you think happened. I am curious therefore - what exactly in these statements strikes you as having the ring of truth? Do you think McCrary would vouch for the authenticity of these statements? Or do you think McCrary is just another phony who should be dismissed out of hand, like Paul Ciolino and Steve Moore?