(Bee dunkers tend to ignore the fact that for many years, no one could actually explain the collapse of 7, FEMA concluding its own explanation having only a "low probability" of occurring. NIST had to commission the work out, and still now the explanation relies entirely on "the fires!!" without the added drama of planes. It's a story for idiots or for people who don't care.)
Great, let's talk about probabilities.
Based on past experience, when a building collapses, what is usually the cause? I'm going to make up a figure here and say that 90% of the time, the cause is controlled demolition, and 10% of the time it is spontaneous structural failure and/or uncontrolled mayhem (such as a terror attack, plane crash, or fire). Those numbers may be way off, but I know for a fact that buildings collapse due to the latter causes, so we'll say that number is between 0 and 10 percent.
Therefore, when a building collapses there is a 90-99% probability that controlled demolition was the cause.
(This would be buildings of mid-range size, since the only three examples of buildings 47 stories and taller collapsing are in dispute here.)
Now we take those probabilities and go to the next step: If a building 5-30 stories high collapses and there is no ear-splitting noise that ruptures all eardrums within a half-mile of the area, what are the probabilities now?
Demolition charges are now ruled out. That leaves buildings that are demolished by some other means, such as cable pulling or some mechanical means of removing supports. The taller a building is, the less likely such a method would be used.
Now the probabilities are much better for uncontrolled mayhem rather than controlled demolition. I could calculate the exact probabilites with more data, but this is unnecessary. We have more facts to consider.
If a building collapses without an ear-splitting noise, and no demolition crew has been seen preparing the building and performing the actual demolition, what are the odds now? I could be wrong, but I'd wager there is not a single incidence of this. We'll be generous and give this a .1% probability.
But now, we take all this and ask: What is a probability that, when a building collapses with no ear-splitting noise, no demolition crew, and the building is ON FIRE, that it is controlled demolition rather than uncontrolled mayhem? Now, the probability that this is, in fact, the result of uncontrolled mayhem comes EXTREMELY close to 100%, especially since fire is a known collapse mechanism.
Now comes the kicker: What if you take all this, and ask the question: "Was there uncontrolled mayhem in the vicinity of the collapse?"
That, my friends, is what we call a no-brainer.