Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[katy_did]

Are you suggesting it isn't?

I was just going to type this exact sentence.

 

[katy_did]

are you putting words in my mouth?

i never used the phrase "non-Western"

are you suggesting that the IJP is on par with, say, JAMA or NEJM?

No, that's right, you just said:

"you want WHAT?!"

"from ****in' INDIA?!"

My mistake.

 

[treehorn]

no, i do not have anything against India

 

[LondonJohn]

The American Journal of Forensic Medicine and Pathology:

"...using stomach contents as a guide to time of death involves an unacceptable degree of imprecision and is thus liable to mislead the investigator and the court."

------------

this journal is published by "National Association of Medical Examiners" (NAME)

an article in this journal purporting to survey the literature is not something that can be dismissed out of hand

against this we have:

ONE n<30 study in the Indian Journal of Pharmacology?

(my thesis supervisor always admonished his classes that "all journals are not created equal" - let's face it, bra: the IJP ain't zactly the NEJM)

and a study purporting to have found nothing more than "reference values" for "future studies"?

what else have you got?

There are plenty of studies which back up the 80-90 minute median point for T(lag) in healthy adults eating moderate-sized meals. Here's another one, with 90 test subjects:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1746.2006.04449.x/abstract

Note that the median is 81.5 minutes and the 75th percentile point is 102 minutes. Extrapolation of the curve suggests that the 95% point is at around 130 minutes, and the 99.9% point is at around 170 minutes. Extrapolation gets more difficult beyond this point, but at 240 minutes the 99.995% point is likely to have been reached.

If Meredith started her pizza meal at 6.30pm, the clock for T(lag) starts at this point. It's known with certainty that Meredith was alive up to just before 9.00pm, i.e. 150 minutes later. This is at around the 98% point on the ToD curve - implying that only 2% of people have a T(lag) of 150 minutes or longer. So, for example, if you looked at 100,000 people, 2,000 of them would have a T(lag) longer than 150 minutes. Meredith would be one of these 2,000 people.

But of those 2,000 people, the experimental data suggest that only around 100 (5%) would have a T(lag) of over 170 minutes. And only 5 of the 2,000 people (0.25%) would have a T(lag) of over 240 minutes.

All of this suggests strongly that Meredith died between the 150-170 minute marks, equating to 9.00-9.20pm. It also suggests that Meredith almost certainly didn't die beyond the 240 minute mark (i.e. later than 10.30pm).

 

[treehorn]

Are you suggesting it isn't?

yes

 

[katy_did]

yes

On the basis that it's "from ****in' INDIA"?

 

[Mary_H]

yes

It is possible that many of the articles in the American medical journals are written by doctors who studied in India.

No other country has exported as many physicians as India. More than 40,000 practice in the United States, making up one of every 20 U.S. doctors.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16774871

Almost 60,000 Indian physicians practice in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia—a workforce equal to 10 percent of the physicians in India and the largest émigré physician workforce in the world.

http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/abstract/25/2/380

 

[loverofzion]

Hi loverofzion,
Have you ever looked at the photograph of Miss Kercher's bedroom with her still there?

If not, click on the link to Perugia Shock I am enclosing:

http://perugia-shock.blogspot.com/2008/01/imperfect-cleanup.html

and then click on the 3rd photograph.
It should become enlarged a bit.
Doing so, sadly and tragically, gives a person a size comparison for the room...

According to Barbie Nadeau, on page 45 of "Angel Face" she writes that
"A pile of Perugia postcards that Meredith had written to friends sat on her nightstand next to a paperback book and a glass of water."

Do you really believe that, with 4 people in that small bedroom, a glass of water did not get knocked over in a life-ending fight? Come on, loverofzion!

I can see, at the maximum, 2 strong men, 1 holding her and the other holding the knife, doing this,
and not creating too much of a disturbance in the rest of the room, nor spilling the water and knocking over that pile of Perugia postcards on her nightstand...
RWVBWL

PS-R.I.P. Miss Meredith Kercher

I find that a very poor reasoning.

Let's posit 3 people armed with knives overtook Ms. Kercher.
There really was no fight from her.
The attack took place in the spot in whcih she was overwhelmed by the 3.

I see it as totally reasonable that they didn't reach the glass of water.

 

[loverofzion]

True. I find the chain of custody, location of second discovery and multiple DNA profiles more than problamatic. However, the court didn't throw it out so I guess I can't for them.


As far as the rest, we are talking about MK's bedroom. The only 'evidence' of either AK or RS being in the bedroom is what you sited above.

Let us not forget the evidence of a clean up.

 

[LondonJohn]

I'm always a little cautious about Micheli as a source, given that the evidence he used to make a decision about Amanda and Raffaele obviously hadn't been fully explored in court at that stage (e.g. the fingerprint evidence), and since some of the most important evidence he did use wasn't as convincing when it was explored in more depth in the trial. The first thing I noticed about Micheli's discussion of Meredith's cell phone usage is just how sparse of detail it is, especially when compared both to Massei's discussion of the same subject, and the defence's discussion of it in the appeal. In fact, the brief paragraph you quoted and the one immediately before it (dealing with the Abbey Bank call) appear to be the full extent of Micheli's analysis of Meredith's cell phone usage.

On this basis, it seems to me that Micheli's vague description of the particular cell tower Meredith's phone connected with may be significant here: "Analogamente, l’mms in arrivo alle 22:13, che trova il cellulare inglese nella zona di Ponte Rio – Montelaguardia..." / "Analogously, the incoming MMS at 22:13, when the English cell phone was in the area of Ponte Rio - Montelaguardia..." Not once does Micheli refer to any specific cell, in contrast to Massei's very extensive discussion of the various cells: 25620, 25621, 25622, 30424, 30423, and 30064. Not a single one of these is mentioned by Micheli; all he refers to is the location of the cell: "Ponte Rio - Montelaguardia".

But when you read Massei, you find out there are three cells at the same location in Ponte Rio - Montelaguardia: 30424, 30423, and 30064. I wonder, then: could the explanation for the apparent contradiction be that Meredith's cell phone had connected with cells in that particular location before - just not with the specific cell it connected with at 22:13...? And is that why Massei never mentions anything about Meredith's phone regularly connecting with the 30064 cell?

I think this is a distinct possibility, especially given the lack of detail in Micheli's analysis, and the fact he never once specifically identifies any cell: I don't think he was working with the full information available both to Massei and the defence. So taking this into account, I'm not sure it's reliable to draw conclusions on the various cells Meredith's phone may or may not have connected with, based only on Micheli's very brief and sparsely detailed discussion.

You're most likely correct in your analysis here. When multiple base stations are installed at the same site, they are almost always configured so that they each cover separate sectors of the 360 degree arc. In other words, they each point in separate directions. If Meredith's phone had connected with one of the base stations sited at this location before, it would almost certainly have been the one whose coverage arc included the girls' cottage.

So this information, if true, means that Meredith's phone was very likely to have been away from the girls' cottage at 10.13pm if it pinged a specific base station which pointed away from the girls' cottage.

 

[treehorn]

There are plenty of studies which back up the 80-90 minute median point for T(lag) in healthy adults eating moderate-sized meals. Here's another one, with 90 test subjects:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1746.2006.04449.x/abstract

Note that the median is 81.5 minutes and the 75th percentile point is 102 minutes. Extrapolation of the curve suggests that the 95% point is at around 130 minutes, and the 99.9% point is at around 170 minutes. Extrapolation gets more difficult beyond this point, but at 240 minutes the 99.995% point is likely to have been reached.

If Meredith started her pizza meal at 6.30pm, the clock for T(lag) starts at this point. It's known with certainty that Meredith was alive up to just before 9.00pm, i.e. 150 minutes later. This is at around the 98% point on the ToD curve - implying that only 2% of people have a T(lag) of 150 minutes or longer. So, for example, if you looked at 100,000 people, 2,000 of them would have a T(lag) longer than 150 minutes. Meredith would be one of these 2,000 people.

But of those 2,000 people, the experimental data suggest that only around 100 (5%) would have a T(lag) of over 170 minutes. And only 5 of the 2,000 people (0.25%) would have a T(lag) of over 240 minutes.

All of this suggests strongly that Meredith died between the 150-170 minute marks, equating to 9.00-9.20pm. It also suggests that Meredith almost certainly didn't die beyond the 240 minute mark (i.e. later than 10.30pm).

"Although there is considerable standard deviation in gastric emptying time, these results may nevertheless serve as reference values for further studies."

yes, i mentioned that one above

the abstract indicates that the authors consider the results as being of limited value:

they suggest only that the results may be used as "reference values" in "future studies"

they also note considerable deviation

i will look up the article

 

[loverofzion]

Greetings again Magister,
Did you know that on the night before Meredith Kercher was killed, on Halloween, Rudy Guede met up with 2 female Spanish Erasmus scholars who lived upstairs from him?
Carolina and Marta went to a party and met him there, afterwards heading over to another Spanish party. Next they went to the Domus nightclub. Meredith and her friends showed up at the Domus nightclub too.
Of the 2 Spanish girls, Marta left first, but Carolina stayed until 5:30am and she says that she saw Rudy dancing with a blond girl with long straight hair that night, probably having a great time, I would imagine.

Looking at the bigger picture, within less then 24 hours, Rudy Guede went from hanging out with 2 gal friends, and dancing with a blonde girl, to then possibly murdering another gal he personally knew, and then surely sexually assaulting her.

You know, as I have spent the last few hours re-reading some past stories on Perugia Shock and recently re-reading "Angel Face" and "Murder in Italy", I still do not believe that Rudy Guede had it in him to intentionally murder Meredith Kercher, so I do question if he is indeed her killer.

And that is why I have lately been looking over some evidence with a different point of view.

Could it have actually been someone else who did stab Meredith Kercher to her death?
Hmmm. I'll ponder this as I hang out on the beach this afternoon, hoping to shoot a photograph of another Great White Shark breaching.
Take it easy,
RWVBWL

Try checking out Amanda Knox as the murderer who stabbed Merdith to death.

 

[LondonJohn]

i sure as hell won't be paying for a glimpse at the IJP!

and somehow i don't think that particular gem is going to be sitting on the shelf of the nearest medical library

i hate to bother my bros with this, but so be it

can't wait to hear how 'thrilled' they're going to be to hear from me on this one:

"you want WHAT?!"

"from ****in' INDIA?!"

Can't beat a bit of casual racism! Are you suggesting that Indian scientific/medical research is somehow inferior by definition? Oh, and you might want to check how many Indian immigrant students there are studying at MIT or med school in the USA, or how much medical and scientific analysis is currently being directly outsourced to India.......

 

[loverofzion]

1) Far be it from me to speak for the copevolisti community as a whole, but I can say without hesitation that reading from you here and now that Meredith was one of Amanda's best friends is indeed a remarkable first time encounter for me.

2) When you say "he (Rudy) was in the flat and no evidence that a 3rd person was *there*"....,
from all the reading I have done that statement is also an innovative but inaccurate 'groundbreaker' that I also cannot silently accept.

Moore's most recent and some others long before him believe there was no evidence of AK in the murder room.

(See Curt's carefully parsed first and many, many subsequent media Interviews when he uses "iota or scintilla", and when Moore uses aviation oriented "hovering" to refer specifically and unequivocally to the murder room)
Note also that even these statements even so carefully and deliberately restricted, and ever so less damning than yours, still receive less than universal acceptance.

Surely you also meant to say just (murder room) and not your "anywhere in the flat".

Thank you for responding to the lies and distortions of Mr. Moore and company.

 

[loverofzion]

Well, not at all. However it strongly indicates that Amanda or someone in contact with her touched that knife at some time.



This is again very far fetched and very speculative. I also highlighted an error of logical nature: even if we postulate an "energetic washing" nothing indicates that the trace was deposited before that "washing" and not after.

The trace to which you refer was of Meredith Kercher's blood on the blade.
How would that be on the blade BEFORE the murder, especially as she had never been to Raffaello's apartment?

Be logical please.

 

[katy_did]

You're most likely correct in your analysis here. When multiple base stations are installed at the same site, they are almost always configured so that they each cover separate sectors of the 360 degree arc. In other words, they each point in separate directions. If Meredith's phone had connected with one of the base stations sited at this location before, it would almost certainly have been the one whose coverage arc included the girls' cottage.

So this information, if true, means that Meredith's phone was very likely to have been away from the girls' cottage at 10.13pm if it pinged a specific base station which pointed away from the girls' cottage.

I believe the 30064 cell did cover the yard of the girls' house, too (I'm not sure about the measurements made by the defence consultant inside Meredith's room, which was in the opposite side of the house). So it could still theoretically have been in the house. However, both Massei and the defence describe coverage from this particular cell within the park as "optimal" (Massei even indicates it was "optimal" - "ottimale" - at the point from which the phones would have been thrown) and the defence say Meredith's phone hadn't connected with this specific cell before. So based on that, together with other evidence, it does seem very plausible (and certainly possible, in contrast to Massei's statement that the phone was definitely still in the house then) that the person who took the phones could've been on the way to the garden at that stage.

Here are the connections from Meredith's English cell phone that we know about from 1 November, together with the cell they connected with:

14:31:43 - 25620
15:01:58 - 25621
15:48:56 - 25621
15:55:03 - 25621
15:55:57 - 25621
22:13:19 - 30064

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

are you putting words in my mouth?

i never used the phrase "non-Western"

are you suggesting that the IJP is on par with, say, JAMA or NEJM?

More importantly, is he suggesting that we shouldn't even mention it because it's Indian, and hence unworthy of inclusion in the discussion? I betcha if it showed t(lag) times in the five hour range the guilters would have an entirely different view of Indian science.

back in my BSc undergrad days we were taught to avoid (strenuously) the temptation to cite studies with less than 30 subjects

Was that a BSC in psychology by any chance? Studies with less than thirty subjects are not at all uncommon in the biomedical literature in my experience, although of course more is always better.

 

[loverofzion]

hell no

i'm waaaay too lazy (i like a lot more than 4 hours sleep a night)

and the liability they face is ridiculous!

Somehow I didn't think you were.

 

[treehorn]

On the basis that it's "from ****in' INDIA"?

no

on the basis that it is not as prestigious/ well-regarded/ renowned in my neck o' the woods

that is only my personal opinion, of course

i cannot 'prove' my assertion anymore than i can prove that most (if not ALL) north americans and europeans would rather attend Harvard or Oxford than, say, the Indian Institute of Technology

but i would stake my life on it

which institution would you rather?

 

[loverofzion]

A professional assassin would have used a gun or a ligature. And there is no reason such an individual would target Meredith Kercher.

This murder was the work of someone who was strong and brutal, but not experienced.

Or of SEVERAL strong and brutal attackers.