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Tea Party upset in Delaware GOP primary?

Puppycow said:
Wow, it's really happening.
Tea party Senate favorites lead in NH, Delaware



I've never even heard of Ovide Lamontagne. Apparently Palin and the Tea Party are on opposite sides of this one, and the Tea Party is winning.

ETA: Oh, yeah. I remember now: Pundits said that Palin endorsed Ayotte because she was a "shoe-in" and NH is a very important presidential primary state. So much for that idea. :D
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At this moment, it's almost a dead heat:

Kelly Ayotte 33,674 38%
Ovide Lamontagne 33,333 38%
 
Over at InTrade, the odds of the GOP taking this seat have plummeted, going from about 85 on Friday to 18 now. Great work, TPers!
 
The Charnel Expanse said:
I'd give her a pity ****. That'd last more than a moment.

In all seriousness, this is just further evidence that the Tea Party thing has gone Frankenstein on the GOP. They've created a monster that they can't control and it will cost them dearly in the end.
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The GOP, as such, had nothing to do with the creation of the Tea Party. The Tea Party is a populist response to the failings of the GOP party structure to address voter concerns. It's biting them because they are opposing it, not because they've aligned with it.

The big question is whether the Democrats can capitalize.
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Given that the Democrats have shown roughly similar levels of organisation as the GOP, i.e. insufficient to hold a piss-up in a brewery, probably not.

They have a bit of a dilemma facing them as to whether to localize or nationalize their House races. If NY23 was any indication, the TP candidates haven't got a very good grasp of local issues. But at the same time, dragging O'Donnell and other extremists like Angle and Miller into the light and making them the new faces of the GOP may also prove beneficial.
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For whom?

Things may not turn out as you might expect.
 
PixyMisa said:
Given that the Democrats have shown roughly similar levels of organisation as the GOP, i.e. insufficient to hold a piss-up in a brewery, probably not.
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Except that Democrats could see victories by default. The further to the right GOP candidates are, the less likely they are to attract swing voters.

And swing voters determine elections.
 
johnny karate said:
Except that Democrats could see victories by default. The further to the right GOP candidates are, the less likely they are to attract swing voters.
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Generally speaking, that might be true. Given the current polls for Congress as a whole, though, it certainly isn't something I would count on.

It will be interesting, that's for sure.
 
shemp said:
At this moment, it's almost a dead heat:

Kelly Ayotte 33,674 38%
Ovide Lamontagne 33,333 38%
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83% reporting now, and still close, but Ayotte has a slight lead.
Ayotte: 45,038
Lamontagne: 44,073

Looks like Palin might have picked the right horse after all.
NH being so important in the presidential race, I wonder if this outcome will affect Palin's chances in '12.
 
PixyMisa said:
The GOP, as such, had nothing to do with the creation of the Tea Party. The Tea Party is a populist response to the failings of the GOP party structure to address voter concerns. It's biting them because they are opposing it, not because they've aligned with it.
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Last time I looked, that nitwit Dick Armey was still identifying himself as a Republican.
 
Puppycow said:
Looks like Palin might have picked the right horse after all.
NH being so important in the presidential race, I wonder if this outcome will affect Palin's chances in '12.
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If her candidate wins the primary and get shot out of the saddle in the general election, the Arctic Quitter might start thinking of retiring from politics.
 
johnny karate said:
Except that Democrats could see victories by default. The further to the right GOP candidates are, the less likely they are to attract swing voters.

And swing voters determine elections.
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I'll go with 'swing' is 'throw the bums out' so we'll see. I remain optimistic. Do you?
 
I'm not so sure that all the TPers winning primaries is such a good sign for Democrats this fall. The public is in one of it's occasional "blame it all on those now in office" mood. Since the Democrats control the House, Senate and Presidency Democratic candidates get more of the blame even if they aren't an incumbent.

The mainstream Republicans are going to hold their noses and vote for the TPers. Unless the Democrats can get really mobilized the independents will lean heavily towards the Republicans because they aren't currently in power.

If the GOP really wants to win the Senate back, they just need to make sure that the TPers don't do anything too over the top from this point on. I think Angle in Nevada is an example of that. Whether or not they can control someone like O'Donnell remains to be seen.
 
Spindrift said:
I'm not so sure that all the TPers winning primaries is such a good sign for Democrats this fall.
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Agreed ... semi-strongly.

The public is in one of it's occasional "blame it all on those now in office" mood.
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Disagreed ... somewhat strongly. I don't think so much as your comment is outright wrong as it's incomplete. Yes, there is a throw-the-bums-out attitude brewing, but there's also a more conservative agenda in the minds and hearts of a good many voters right now. And that doesn't mean Republican, as we've seen in Delaware. TEA party rallies as described by those who have attended are composed of having people from all walks of life and politics in their ranks. Yes, the majority may be Republican leaning, but here I thing conservatism rules ... which includes a good many Independents and Democrats.
 
Long term the GOP might be in the position of a Football team that Wins a big game, but suffers so many injuries in the process that it cost them the season long term.
 
O;Donnell seems to be one of these Catholics who is far more extreme then the Actual Church is on many issues. Maybe she can get Mel Gibson to come capaign for her...
 
Just thinking said:
Agreed ... semi-strongly.



Disagreed ... somewhat strongly. I don't think so much as your comment is outright wrong as it's incomplete. Yes, there is a throw-the-bums-out attitude brewing, but there's also a more conservative agenda in the minds and hearts of a good many voters right now. And that doesn't mean Republican, as we've seen in Delaware.
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Why doesn't it mean Republican? What is that based on?

Just because people are leaning more conservative in this election does not equal that they want a conservative agenda.

Just thinking said:
TEA party rallies as described by those who have attended are composed of having people from all walks of life and politics in their ranks. Yes, the majority may be Republican leaning, but here I thing conservatism rules ... which includes a good many Independents and Democrats.
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Conservatism rules in the Tea Party? No kidding.
Many independents and Democrats may be conservative on specific issues. However overall not many Democrats would consider themselves across the board conservatives.
 
Spindrift said:
Why doesn't it mean Republican? What is that based on?
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Because Republicans don't have a monopoly on all conservatives. That's why I mentioned Delaware. Also, have you never heard of Blue-Dog Democrats --- and there are certainly many Independents that lean more right than left, as there are some that lean more left than right; but right now, given the political climate ...

Just because people are leaning more conservative in this election does not equal that they want a conservative agenda.
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In the areas that matter at this time, it does seem to be the case.

Conservatism rules in the Tea Party? No kidding.
Many independents and Democrats may be conservative on specific issues.
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It depends on the issues that are pressing this coming November. There are many Independents that lean more right than left, and many that lean the opposite. Given what's on many people's minds, it's usually the Republicans that are thought of as having better solutions ... or should I say, conservatives.

However overall not many Democrats would consider themselves across the board conservatives.
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It seldom takes very many in an election ... especially a mid-term election.
 
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